lordswoodsaints Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 in our previous 15 games we gained 12 points, if that form continues it means we would end up with about 40 points,would this be enough to survive? i dont think it will. last season leicester who finished 3rd from bottom were relegated with 52 points,bottom team colchester gained 38 points 2006/2007 season southend who finished 3rd from bottom were relegated with 42 points,leeds finished bottom with 36. 2005/2006 season crewe finished 3rd from bottom with 42,brighton finishing bottom with 38 either our form needs to dramatically improve overnight,something which i dont think is possible with the current setup or we will be heading for L1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krissyboy31 Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 I reckon we need another 17+ to stay up but will get less than 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thorpie the sinner Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 shock horror, 20 points from 15 games!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saints_is_the_south Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 I would say we need atleast 17 points, and even that might not be enough. We should be aiming to finish the season on 50 points, i can't see it myself. Watford (A) - L Bristol City (A) - L Preston (H) - D Cardiff (H) - L Ipswich (A) - D Birmingham (A) - L Derby (H) - W QPR (H) - D Blackpool (A) - W Charlton (H) - W Wolves (A) - L Crystal Palace (H) - D Sheff Wed (A) - L Burnley (H) - L Nottm Forest (A) - D I give us 14 points, & i think I've been pretty kind to us on a few games there. That would leave us on 42 points, not enough IMO. Between the middle of March & start of April we have 3 home games in 4 & 3 of them against relegation rivals, i think the amount of points we pick up from these games will decide our fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRobbie Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 With Wotte? I'm going for 9 Points total. With new manager - if he arrives in next fortnight? 15-17 Points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thorpie the sinner Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 With Wotte? I'm going for 9 Points total. With new manager - if he arrives in next fortnight? 15-17 Points. My 20 point haul was dependent on a new solid manager coming in!!!! With Wotte, 5!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Bad Bob Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 we will get 45 points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHAPEL END CHARLIE Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 (edited) in our previous 15 games we gained 12 points, if that form continues it means we would end up with about 40 points,would this be enough to survive? i dont think it will. last season leicester who finished 3rd from bottom were relegated with 52 points,bottom team colchester gained 38 points 2006/2007 season southend who finished 3rd from bottom were relegated with 42 points,leeds finished bottom with 36. 2005/2006 season crewe finished 3rd from bottom with 42,brighton finishing bottom with 38 either our form needs to dramatically improve overnight,something which i dont think is possible with the current setup or we will be heading for L1. That's a perfectly fair anaylsis , we're not getting enough points per game and there's absolutly no indication we're going to start the type of run that will ensure our survival . If we don't beat Watford on Saturday I'd put our chances of still being in the CCC next season as about 1 in 10 . Edited 5 February, 2009 by CHAPEL END CHARLIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummer Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 Surely it doesn't matter what the third bottom team in each year did, but the fourth bottom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordswoodsaints Posted 5 February, 2009 Author Share Posted 5 February, 2009 That's a perfectly fair anaylsis , we're not getting enough points per game and there's absolutly no indication we're going to start the type of run that will ensure our survival . I'd put of chances of still being in the CCC next season as about 1 in 10 . it is possible that we could do a 'forest' and turn things around by going on a decent run of form,tyson seems to be scoring goals for fun now,something that perhaps Mcgoldrick could emulate........but his has all happened since they changed their manager,he seems to have given them the confidence to produce, something which wotte will not be able to achieve i fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 17 points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buctootim Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 I think we'll need 43 to stay up and will get 46 - 18 points from the last 15 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordswoodsaints Posted 5 February, 2009 Author Share Posted 5 February, 2009 up until the sheff utd game we have been averaging 0.9 points per game so if we continue with that form then we will gain 13.5 or rounded up 14 points giving us 42 points. i cant see us dramatically improving on the 0.9 point per game,even if we could slightly improve it to 1.0 per game it will still only give us 43 points and i dont think this will be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1976_Child Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 about 6. unless someone can sneak into soho square with some tipex and make a few ammendments to the register. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy_Porter Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 Watford (A) - W Bristol City (A) - D Preston (H) - D Cardiff (H) - L Ipswich (A) - L Birmingham (A) - D Derby (H) - W QPR (H) - L Blackpool (A) - D Charlton (H) - W Wolves (A) - L Crystal Palace (H) - L Sheff Wed (A) - W Burnley (H) - L Nottm Forest (A) - W 19 points. 28+19 = 47, probably won't be enough unless a couple of teams start to slide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saint1977 Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 (edited) I think we'll need 43 to stay up and will get 46 - 18 points from the last 15 games. Hope you are right but although last year's survival figure was unusually high, 50 points is not secure and teams do start picking up more points at the bottom this time onwards. I can only see us getting anywhere if we win all of our home games. Our away games left are pretty tough on paper so we need to say that 3 points is the only acceptable return in the remaining home games and set up accordingly in games - even at the risk of the odd hiding. Home draws don't cut the mustard when you 5 adrift. If we can squeeze a couple of away wins, that's a bonus and is possible. I'd also drop McDonkey and pick Saga and Euell up front. Euell is awful but he's better than McG which is really saying something and at least he can head a ball or tries to. Edited 5 February, 2009 by saint1977 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 26: seems like a good number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monosaint Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 If you look at the table we are effectively 2/3rds of the way through.. The last playoff place (Preston) have 49 points so if we were to survive we would have to hit that sort of form which would give us say 24/25 points.. Takes us to 52 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krissyboy31 Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 26: seems like a good number. If we get 26 points from the last 15 games, they should give Wotte the freedom of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordswoodsaints Posted 5 February, 2009 Author Share Posted 5 February, 2009 possible 45 points on offer but i think we will be lucky to get a third of them unless we can string a great run together,very unlikely with what we have available(manager and players) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TijuanaTim Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 20 points for safety Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Marco Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 The problem is teams are now going on runs while we are not. Look at Forest and Doncaster, they have the 3rd and 8th best form over the last 8 games. Forest have gone on a run with only 2 defeats in something like their last 12 and are only 5 points above the zone. We need to do that just to get on level terms! The teams around us are improving and pulling away, Norwich unbeaten in last 4, Doncaster have lost 1 in their last 8, even Watford have won 3 of their last 6. We have one win in the last 14. This year i think the 3rd final spot will need less points then 52 to survive. but to even equal that we need 24 more points, nearly 100% increase in just 15 games. That means we need to jump from 0.90 points per game to 1.6 points per game (1 win every 2 games). Translated means we need to win 7-8 of the last 15. Seeing as we have won once in the last 14 would mean an increase in win ratio by 600%. That is if that is the same number needed to survive of course. So i think Watford depends more then the rest of the games, we lose and the confidence will be gone. Of the last 15 games i can see us Watford (A) - Draw Bristol City (A) - Draw Preston (H) - Draw Cardiff (H) - Lose Ipswich (A) - Lose Birmingham (A) - lose Derby (H) - Win QPR (H) - Draw Blackpool (A) - Lose Charlton (H) - Win Wolves (A) - Lose Crystal Palace (H) - Lose Sheff Wed (A) - Lose Burnley (H) - Lose Nottm Forest (A) - Draw So 11 points for me. And that won't be anywhere near enough seeing as we already need 4 points just to get out of it now. lose at Watford and its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomobz Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 A lot of obvious negativity but we are due a good run. With the amount of bad luck we have had we will be due our share of karma. 6 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses, 22 points and safety mathematically confirmed after Burnley at home I hope anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saints_is_the_south Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 A lot of obvious negativity but we are due a good run. With the amount of bad luck we have had we will be due our share of karma. 6 wins, 4 draws, 5 losses, 22 points and safety mathematically confirmed after Burnley at home I hope anyway If we are mathematically safe after the Burnley game i'll donate £100 to charity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomobz Posted 5 February, 2009 Share Posted 5 February, 2009 If we are mathematically safe after the Burnley game i'll donate £100 to charity. Haha, I'll hold you to that, can the charity be of my choice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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