SaintBobby

That's true, but hard to shoe horn into an accumulator. I think the point is that if you want to hedge on Saints being relegated than place an accumulator bet on Sunderland to beat Saints, Wigan to beat Arsenal, Stoke to beat Saints and Wigan to beat Villa. That will get you odds of about 200/1. All four of these results will have to happen for Saints to go down, so this is a wiser hedge than to back Saints to be relegated at 100/1. Of course, you could feasibly win the 200/1 bet and still see Saints survive!

It seems to me that the bookies have set these long odds to entrap the nervous and/or innumerate. The individual match odds are about 500/1 or more on Saints going down. Similarly, Fulham are still being quoted at 100/1 to go down - but they are 100% safe as long as they don't lose their last two games by a combined total of 12 goals. Even if they did so, they'd probably stay up. The real odds of Fulham going down must be something like 10,000/1 or more.

Premier League for me all day long. I don't really think I'd find it a "constant grind". As others have suggested, it's not really a sensible question - the longer we are in the Premier League, the better our chances of winning a Cup.

What was the middle bit, again?

Sorry to keep pointing this out, but a draw is sufficient v Sunderland.

Makes virtually no difference. Probably increases their self-belief by a bit and their survival chances by a tiny amount. But only a tiny amount.

No team has ever won the FA Cup and been relegated before. Fair play to Wigan, would be sad to see them drop - would prefer Newcastle or Norwich to go down.

And probably don't even need that.... Still, let's hope the whole issue is moot by this time tomorrow.

Sorry, it's not consistent to shift from 41-43 will be needed to now predicting 40-41 will be needed. That's a big shift. In the direction of reality, I concede. But nevertheless, a long way away from being clear and consistent.

You accept that 40 points is definitely enough now? If so, you haven't been at all consistent. You've already been inconsistent, of course, switching from 41-43 needed to 40-41. Which is neither clear or consistent.

LMAO. I'm not certain that Wigan will fail to beat Arsenal. I just think it's pretty likely. Even if they do destroy Arsenal's Champions League hopes, which is a hell of a longshot, it's still likely that 39 points will be enough. 40 points is now definitely enough (barring a last day result which is less likely than Armageddon occurring between now and the end of the season) It's still pretty likely that 38 points or even less will have turned out to be enough for Saints (certainly more likely that 38 will be enough than that 40 will be required). For example, if Wigan win one and lose one of their last two games (or do worse than that), then 38 points (or less) will be enough. To be utterly certain, that Wigan will do better than 3 points from 2 games is simply a sign of idiocy, innumeracy and/or mental illness.

As pointed out on the other thread, that means you are certain that Wigan will beat Arsenal on Tuesday. (as well as being certain that Norwich and Newcastle will both get 2 or more points from their remaining games). With you having taken others to task on how unpredictable football is, to show such utter certainty about the results of these five games is truly bizarre. Especially, as you are utterly certain that the 10/1 underdog will win one of those five games....

You're not just saying that Wigan CAN beat Arsenal (everyone agrees it's possible). You are saying they definitely WILL beat Arsenal. That's the only feasible way that 39 points won't be enough for Saints to stay up. And you claim to be utterly certain that 39 points won't be enough. Football is, of course, unpredictable. So, to be utterly certain that Wigan will beat Arsenal away on Tuesday night is a bit weird.

Like I say, backsliding like crazy. I've always said 39 will be enough. You've slid from 41-43 to 41 and now to 40 (I assume you're accepting 40 is enough - forecasting a 12-0 defeat would be very odd). By Tuesday, you may well be accepting it's 38-39. So at least you're backsliding in the right direction, I guess.

Initially it was 41-43. Then it was 41. You now think 40 may "just be enough" (you therefore think we might lose one of our remaining games 12-0, as that's the only way that 40 won't mathematically be enough). With this extraordinary level of backsliding week-by-week, you may even have settled on an accurate figure by the end of the season.

They've drifted just a little to about 2/7, but I agree this is unlikely to impact too much on the league.

They are 10/1 - sounds about right (their chances are about 9%) Would you like to comment on whether Saints still need 41-43 points to be safe?

To be clear, I'm only referring to Saints here. Newcastle could also go down on 40 points. If Aston Villa lose to Wigan by a single goal and Newcastle get 2 draws, Villa will probably be ahead of Newcastle on goals scored.

I'm actually happy with our present CMs - Cork and Morgan are a great partnership. Steve Davis is pretty good too and I'd hope JW-P will improve with each passing year. I'm not against adding a squad player or two here, but I don't think we need to seriously splash the cash on a new centre midfield.

39 is enough for Wigan if any of Sunderland, Norwich and Newcastle lose all their remaining games. Or quite possibly if Norwich or Newcastle pick up just one point from their remaining two games. I agree that 39 points is almost certainly enough for Saints to stay ahead of Wigan, especially considering goal difference. In fact, it's likely that we'd have been safe on just 38 points, which would mean (in retrospect) that we confirmed our survival on April 13th with our 1-1 draw against West Ham!

It does seem that a draw would be pretty damned acceptable to both sides. It would leave Sunderland hoping that Wigan don't beat both Arsenal and Villa, but that would seem to be a reasonable assumption.

A draw against Sunderland would not leave us relying on others. We would just need to rely on ourselves not to lose by more than 12-0 at home to Stoke. Still think we need 41-43 points?

Updated following the Villa v Chelsea match. To all intents and purposes, 40 points now guarantee safety. Anyone who says or has said we will need 41 points or more is now, essentially, wrong.

A draw makes us safe too (unless we lose our remaining games 7-0)