pedg Posted 7 April, 2013 Share Posted 7 April, 2013 (edited) As I mentioned in the remaining games for the bottom teams thread I think this one is more appropriate now 9th Place, Swansea: Played 32. 41 Points. 20th April: Swansea v SAINTS 27th April: Chelsea v Swansea 5th May: Swansea v Man City 7th May: Wigan v Swansea 12th May: Man U v Swansea 19th May: Swansea v Fulham 10th Place, Fulham: Played 32. 40 Points 17th April: Fulham v Chelsea 20th April: Fulham v Arsenal 27th April: Everton v Fulham 4th May: Fulham v Reading 12th May: Fulham v Liverpool 19th May: Swansea v Fulham 11th Place, SAINTS: Played 33. 38 Points 20th April: Swansea v SAINTS 27th April: SAINTS v West Brom 4th May: Spurs v SAINTS 12th May: Sunderland v SAINTS 19th May: SAINTS v Stoke 12th Place, West Ham: Played 32. 38 Points 17th April: West Ham v Man U 20th April: West Ham v Wigan 27th April: Man City v West Ham 4th May: West Ham v Newcastle 12th May: Everton v West Ham 19th May: West Ham v Reading My opinion is that both Fulham and Swansea have harder games coming up that us. West ham have got a couple against teams in the relegation zone which could be a blessing or a curse depending on how tight it is down there when they meet them. I think we have a good chance of finishing 10th and a reasonable chance of finishing 9th. Edited 13 April, 2013 by pedg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiggles31 Posted 7 April, 2013 Share Posted 7 April, 2013 We have the best fixtures of the bunch by a country mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 7 April, 2013 Share Posted 7 April, 2013 You've excluded Newcastle. Suppose they are an entire whole point behind us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 7 April, 2013 Share Posted 7 April, 2013 Disagree. We will scrape another 4 points from those fixtures, which hopefully will be enough. People getting way ahead of themselves. Safety first ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rut Posted 7 April, 2013 Share Posted 7 April, 2013 Good thread. Currently between 2/1 & 3/1 for a top 10 finish (this is way more realistic than relegation): http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/premier-league/top-10-finish Saints to get between 10 & 18 points from the final 6 games. Nailed on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedg Posted 7 April, 2013 Author Share Posted 7 April, 2013 You've excluded Newcastle. Suppose they are an entire whole point behind us. Had to draw the line at some point. I can add them in a game or so if its still close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CB Fry Posted 7 April, 2013 Share Posted 7 April, 2013 Had to draw the line at some point. I can add them in a game or so if its still close. They are far closer to us than we are to Swansea so your line doesn't make sense. Glad to have been of service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 7 April, 2013 Share Posted 7 April, 2013 They are far closer to us than we are to Swansea so your line doesn't make sense. Glad to have been of service. We still have to play Swansea so can take points off them and catch them up, we've played Newcastle twice already. If Swansea beat us then you could probably remove them from the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedg Posted 7 April, 2013 Author Share Posted 7 April, 2013 They are far closer to us than we are to Swansea so your line doesn't make sense. Glad to have been of service. I wanted to show that 9th is possible more than list all the clubs withn 6 points so it makes sense to me. You servitude is noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 7 April, 2013 Share Posted 7 April, 2013 Probability of a 10th place finish is now 50 times that of relegation and the most likely finishing position is somewhere between 11th and 12th! So this thread makes far more sense at present! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
positivepete Posted 7 April, 2013 Share Posted 7 April, 2013 And to think that after ten games no newly promoted club had got so few points and survived! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewy Posted 7 April, 2013 Share Posted 7 April, 2013 Probability of a 10th place finish is now 50 times that of relegation and the most likely finishing position is somewhere between 11th and 12th! So this thread makes far more sense at present! Between 11th and 12th? Some sort of Harry potter hogwarts train position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedg Posted 7 April, 2013 Author Share Posted 7 April, 2013 Another thing to note is that of the teams listed we are the only one that has at least a week between each game (Sat, Sat, Sat, Sat, Sun & Sun) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulletsaint Posted 7 April, 2013 Share Posted 7 April, 2013 You've excluded Newcastle. Suppose they are an entire whole point behind us. Yawn. Swansea are on a poor run of form and have some tough fixtures in there. I can see them picking up 5pts. Fulham have some tough games also so I'll go for 5pts again. I reckon we could get 9pts from that as we have three or four winnable games in there plus the chance of a draw or two. West Ham I think should get 7pts and maybe a couple more. That would leave these positions: 9th Swansea 46pts 10th Saints 46pts (worse GD) 11th Fulham 44pts 12th West Ham 44pts (worse GD) Having said all that I'll go with MP and take it one game at a time, lose the next two and things could conceivably get nervy again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNSUN Posted 7 April, 2013 Share Posted 7 April, 2013 I'm normally positive but I still won't be comfortable until we're mathmatically safe from relegation. Yes I think we'll win a few more and finish comfortably mid-table, but there's always a chance we won't! Still only 6 points clear, 2 or 3 losses (while perhaps unrealistic) and it could be squeaky bum time again. All that said of course, I think we'll beat West Ham on Saturday anyway which will push us up to 40 points, after showing yesterday that we can beat long ball teams as well as passing sides. I think we'll draw against Swansea and West Brom, lose to Spurs, draw against Sunderland and beat Stoke. So 46 points, or 48 if we can beat Sunderland, which is the game I'm not too sure about. In fact, play as we are, and they're all winnable, although our trip to White Hart Lane sticks out as the toughest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Who? Posted 7 April, 2013 Share Posted 7 April, 2013 Tell you what, if we beat Swansea, I am going for 9th, if we do not 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr Who? Posted 7 April, 2013 Share Posted 7 April, 2013 I'm normally positive but I still won't be comfortable until we're mathmatically safe from relegation. Yes I think we'll win a few more and finish comfortably mid-table, but there's always a chance we won't! Still only 6 points clear, 2 or 3 losses (while perhaps unrealistic) and it could be squeaky bum time again. All that said of course, I think we'll beat West Ham on Saturday anyway which will push us up to 40 points, after showing yesterday that we can beat long ball teams as well as passing sides. I think we'll draw against Swansea and West Brom, lose to Spurs, draw against Sunderland and beat Stoke. So 46 points, or 48 if we can beat Sunderland, which is the game I'm not too sure about. In fact, play as we are, and they're all winnable, although our trip to White Hart Lane sticks out as the toughest. But also agree with this, if we win on Saturday all will be good. If we lose, and then lose to Swansea, we will be looking over our shoulder again. So win Saturday first and then get a draw or beat Swansea, and I think 9th will be ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedg Posted 7 April, 2013 Author Share Posted 7 April, 2013 I think the problem is that people are concentrating more on the number of points between us and the relegation zone over the number of other teams between us and the relegation zone. We might have a bad week or two but the chances are one or more of the teams below us will also have a run of bad results. Next weekend Norwich are away to Arsenal, Sunderland are away to Newcastle, Stoke are at home to Man U and Wigan next match is away to Man City. If we were 6 points above the the bottom 3 and 4th from bottom I would be more worried but the number of other teams between us and them, most of whom have harder run ins than us, make relegation a lot less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torrent Of Abuse Posted 7 April, 2013 Share Posted 7 April, 2013 People getting way ahead of themselves. Safety first ! You must be the Health and Safety dalek who keeps trundling around warning the others about the danger of stairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stu0x Posted 8 April, 2013 Share Posted 8 April, 2013 I think the problem is that people are concentrating more on the number of points between us and the relegation zone over the number of other teams between us and the relegation zone. Exactly. It's a very common statistical misinterpretation (and the reason so many idiots 'No Deal' with Noel when in an insurmountable position...) being in 11th place and 6 points clear of the relegation zone is a *completely* different prospect, mathematically, to being 6 points clear and in 17th would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
for_heaven's_Saint Posted 8 April, 2013 Share Posted 8 April, 2013 Realisticly I'd like to think we can win 3 and draw 1 of our remaining games. That would require winning our home games and getting a point from one of our aways, though it's unlikely to happen that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Garrett Posted 8 April, 2013 Share Posted 8 April, 2013 Realisticly I'd like to think we can win 3 and draw 1 of our remaining games. That would require winning our home games and getting a point from one of our aways' date=' though it's unlikely to happen that way.[/quote'] Would take wins vs West Ham, WBA and Stoke, maybe a win at Swansea as well and a defeat vs Spurs. Maybe a point at Sunderland... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 8 April, 2013 Share Posted 8 April, 2013 I think the problem is that people are concentrating more on the number of points between us and the relegation zone over the number of other teams between us and the relegation zone. We might have a bad week or two but the chances are one or more of the teams below us will also have a run of bad results. Next weekend Norwich are away to Arsenal, Sunderland are away to Newcastle, Stoke are at home to Man U and Wigan next match is away to Man City. If we were 6 points above the the bottom 3 and 4th from bottom I would be more worried but the number of other teams between us and them, most of whom have harder run ins than us, make relegation a lot less likely. This is 100% correct! The chances of Villa, Norwich, Wigan, Stoke and Sunderland all winning 3 or more games out of the remaining fixtures is almost zero! particulalry given many of them have hard matches against teams chasing europe and many matches against each other! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david in sweden Posted 12 April, 2013 Share Posted 12 April, 2013 I think Sunderland could be the third side to go down....... UNLESS... they can win the upcoming derby game with Newcastle......and can beat us by a convincing margin..... personally I'd like to see us finish above Wham and Fulham..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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