Iran

[Sheaf Saint]

26 minutes ago, egg said:

The impact on the US economy, and beyond will be grave. The petrodallar and US debt are joined at the hip. I haven't really considered how a long term war could help Donny perhaps being able to swerve the mid-terms, but I wonder if there's a selfish political angle that outweighs the US economy. 

He's got deep personal business ties with the Saudis, but I'm not certain how this current action would benefit him in that regard. 

[Sheaf Saint]

The Israeli Embassy in Bahrain was targeted early this morning. That's less than a kilometre from where my brother lives 😬

[badgerx16]

1 hour ago, egg said:

Without a ground invasion, Iran will put whoever it wants in charge. The longer it goes on the more that will be necessary if the US want to win, but the longer it goes on the more the global economy, in particular the US economy, is decimated. Quite what Trump really wants I'm unsure though, but it definitely isn't the best for the people of Iran. 

1) Looking tough for the mid-term primaries.

2) Distracting from the domestic economic mess he has created.

3) If you rename the Department of Defense to the Department of War this was probably inevitable.

[Weston Super Saint]

4 hours ago, benjii said:

Countries directly involved through participation or receipt of attacks:

1 USA

2 Israel 

3 Iran 

4 Bahrain 

5 Kuwait 

6 Oman 

7 Qatar 

8 Saudi Arabia 

9 UAE

10 Iraq

11 Lebanon 

12 Azerbaijan 

13 Jordan 

14 Cyprus 

Yemen likely to he directly involved very soon.

Then you have defensive support: UK  France etc.

You have Pakistan at war with Afghanistan.

Turkey probably quite twitchy.

Egypt likely to intervene if Suez Canal gets cut off.

Potential flare ups in Horn of Africa.

 

It is somewhat "messy".

 

The UK was directly involved when it was attacked...

[egg]

2 hours ago, Sheaf Saint said:

He's got deep personal business ties with the Saudis, but I'm not certain how this current action would benefit him in that regard. 

I meant in terms of being a war time president possibly meaning no mid terms. 

[Farmer Saint]

 

 

[badgerx16]

1 hour ago, egg said:

I meant in terms of being a war time president possibly meaning no mid terms. 

Election dates are set in stone and only Congress can change them. Considering they had Presidential and Congressinal elections in the Civil War, Korean war, Vietnam war, and WW2, there really isn't precedent.

Edited yesterday at 15:49 by badgerx16

[badgerx16]

Edit; remember Trump tried to strongarm Zelensky into ignoring the Ukrainian constitution and HOLD elections during a war.

[egg]

29 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Edit; remember Trump tried to strongarm Zelensky into ignoring the Ukrainian constitution and HOLD elections during a war.

This is Trump! He's pretty much said the only rules are the direction of his moral compass. Don't expect consistency. 

[LGTL]

Oil is surging now, diesel heading towards £1.50 at the pumps. This really couldn’t be happening in a worse location for European energy. 

[Weston Super Saint]

2 minutes ago, LGTL said:

Oil is surging now, diesel heading towards £1.50 at the pumps. This really couldn’t be happening in a worse location for European energy. 

Luckily the oil producers can replace the money they need to spend on missiles from America.  Everyone wins!

[badgerx16]

48 minutes ago, egg said:

This is Trump! He's pretty much said the only rules are the direction of his moral compass. Don't expect consistency. 

Edited yesterday at 17:16 by badgerx16

[benjii]

1 hour ago, LGTL said:

Oil is surging now, diesel heading towards £1.50 at the pumps. This really couldn’t be happening in a worse location for European energy. 

If the Houthis manage to disrupt Red Sea access, everything will get expensive and, in some cases, scarce.

[benjii]

[badgerx16]

As far as I can work out, no conflict has ever been won by air power without at least a clear threat of "boots on the ground".

Edited yesterday at 17:54 by badgerx16

[egg]

27 minutes ago, benjii said:

If the Houthis manage to disrupt Red Sea access, everything will get expensive and, in some cases, scarce.

A small price to pay for the already safe Israelis to be safer. Or something. 

[egg]

25 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

As far as I can work out, no conflict has ever been won by air power without at least a clear threat of "boots on the ground".

I'm not sure what winning looks like to Israel. Gaza isn't over, and Lebanon never was. They love a war of attrition. The US public, and global economy, won't. 

[Gloucester Saint]

1 hour ago, badgerx16 said:

As far as I can work out, no conflict has ever been won by air power without at least a clear threat of "boots on the ground".

And not just winning but enabling new political systems and cultures to form. All of the years in Afghanistan, did knock out some appalling terrorists but the Taliban played the long game. Half the reason the IRG are there is that the Shah was so corrupt and repressive.

[Farmer Saint]

Diesel all gone at the local Tesco's. Unleaded still plentiful though.

[egg]

22 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

Diesel all gone at the local Tesco's. Unleaded still plentiful though.

Do you not use red? Prices gone nuts round here. 168 at one of the Romsey garages yesterday. 

[Farmer Saint]

43 minutes ago, egg said:

Do you not use red? Prices gone nuts round here. 168 at one of the Romsey garages yesterday. 

Only for the tractors, obviously 😉

Wife's car is petrol though.

Edited 12 hours ago by Farmer Saint

[JohnnyShearer2.0]

I'm confused, Russia is aiding Iran with targeting intel but thats ok as Trump has a special relationship with Putin?!