Iran

[Sheaf Saint]

26 minutes ago, egg said:

The impact on the US economy, and beyond will be grave. The petrodallar and US debt are joined at the hip. I haven't really considered how a long term war could help Donny perhaps being able to swerve the mid-terms, but I wonder if there's a selfish political angle that outweighs the US economy. 

He's got deep personal business ties with the Saudis, but I'm not certain how this current action would benefit him in that regard. 

[Sheaf Saint]

The Israeli Embassy in Bahrain was targeted early this morning. That's less than a kilometre from where my brother lives 😬

[badgerx16]

1 hour ago, egg said:

Without a ground invasion, Iran will put whoever it wants in charge. The longer it goes on the more that will be necessary if the US want to win, but the longer it goes on the more the global economy, in particular the US economy, is decimated. Quite what Trump really wants I'm unsure though, but it definitely isn't the best for the people of Iran. 

1) Looking tough for the mid-term primaries.

2) Distracting from the domestic economic mess he has created.

3) If you rename the Department of Defense to the Department of War this was probably inevitable.

[Weston Super Saint]

4 hours ago, benjii said:

Countries directly involved through participation or receipt of attacks:

1 USA

2 Israel 

3 Iran 

4 Bahrain 

5 Kuwait 

6 Oman 

7 Qatar 

8 Saudi Arabia 

9 UAE

10 Iraq

11 Lebanon 

12 Azerbaijan 

13 Jordan 

14 Cyprus 

Yemen likely to he directly involved very soon.

Then you have defensive support: UK  France etc.

You have Pakistan at war with Afghanistan.

Turkey probably quite twitchy.

Egypt likely to intervene if Suez Canal gets cut off.

Potential flare ups in Horn of Africa.

 

It is somewhat "messy".

 

The UK was directly involved when it was attacked...

[egg]

2 hours ago, Sheaf Saint said:

He's got deep personal business ties with the Saudis, but I'm not certain how this current action would benefit him in that regard. 

I meant in terms of being a war time president possibly meaning no mid terms. 

[Farmer Saint]

 

 

[badgerx16]

1 hour ago, egg said:

I meant in terms of being a war time president possibly meaning no mid terms. 

Election dates are set in stone and only Congress can change them. Considering they had Presidential and Congressinal elections in the Civil War, Korean war, Vietnam war, and WW2, there really isn't precedent.

Edited Friday at 15:49 by badgerx16

[badgerx16]

Edit; remember Trump tried to strongarm Zelensky into ignoring the Ukrainian constitution and HOLD elections during a war.

[egg]

29 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Edit; remember Trump tried to strongarm Zelensky into ignoring the Ukrainian constitution and HOLD elections during a war.

This is Trump! He's pretty much said the only rules are the direction of his moral compass. Don't expect consistency. 

[LGTL]

Oil is surging now, diesel heading towards £1.50 at the pumps. This really couldn’t be happening in a worse location for European energy. 

[Weston Super Saint]

2 minutes ago, LGTL said:

Oil is surging now, diesel heading towards £1.50 at the pumps. This really couldn’t be happening in a worse location for European energy. 

Luckily the oil producers can replace the money they need to spend on missiles from America.  Everyone wins!

[badgerx16]

48 minutes ago, egg said:

This is Trump! He's pretty much said the only rules are the direction of his moral compass. Don't expect consistency. 

Edited Friday at 17:16 by badgerx16

[benjii]

1 hour ago, LGTL said:

Oil is surging now, diesel heading towards £1.50 at the pumps. This really couldn’t be happening in a worse location for European energy. 

If the Houthis manage to disrupt Red Sea access, everything will get expensive and, in some cases, scarce.

[benjii]

[badgerx16]

As far as I can work out, no conflict has ever been won by air power without at least a clear threat of "boots on the ground".

Edited Friday at 17:54 by badgerx16

[egg]

27 minutes ago, benjii said:

If the Houthis manage to disrupt Red Sea access, everything will get expensive and, in some cases, scarce.

A small price to pay for the already safe Israelis to be safer. Or something. 

[egg]

25 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

As far as I can work out, no conflict has ever been won by air power without at least a clear threat of "boots on the ground".

I'm not sure what winning looks like to Israel. Gaza isn't over, and Lebanon never was. They love a war of attrition. The US public, and global economy, won't. 

[Gloucester Saint]

1 hour ago, badgerx16 said:

As far as I can work out, no conflict has ever been won by air power without at least a clear threat of "boots on the ground".

And not just winning but enabling new political systems and cultures to form. All of the years in Afghanistan, did knock out some appalling terrorists but the Taliban played the long game. Half the reason the IRG are there is that the Shah was so corrupt and repressive.

[Farmer Saint]

Diesel all gone at the local Tesco's. Unleaded still plentiful though.

[egg]

22 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

Diesel all gone at the local Tesco's. Unleaded still plentiful though.

Do you not use red? Prices gone nuts round here. 168 at one of the Romsey garages yesterday. 

[Farmer Saint]

43 minutes ago, egg said:

Do you not use red? Prices gone nuts round here. 168 at one of the Romsey garages yesterday. 

Only for the tractors, obviously 😉

Wife's car is petrol though.

Edited Saturday at 11:47 by Farmer Saint

[JohnnyShearer2.0]

I'm confused, Russia is aiding Iran with targeting intel but thats ok as Trump has a special relationship with Putin?!

[Farmer Saint]

Yet again we are going to see issues with inflation and shortages due to the geopolitical landscape. The quicker we transition to more renewables the better for our security, but unfortunately whilst we continue to race to the bottom from global trade shocks like this will always be around. Capitalism needs a reset.

[AlexLaw76]

1 hour ago, Farmer Saint said:

Yet again we are going to see issues with inflation and shortages due to the geopolitical landscape. The quicker we transition to more renewables the better for our security, but unfortunately whilst we continue to race to the bottom from global trade shocks like this will always be around. Capitalism needs a reset.

We could obtain more of our own energy from the North Sea in the meantime.

[Farmer Saint]

1 hour ago, AlexLaw76 said:

We could obtain more of our own energy from the North Sea in the meantime.

Don't we have an issue with high cost of extraction, the fact it is extracted by private companies that sells on the open market, and the fact that we can't refine a lot of it?

[AlexLaw76]

47 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

Don't we have an issue with high cost of extraction, the fact it is extracted by private companies that sells on the open market, and the fact that we can't refine a lot of it?

In the name of energy security, closing down the capability, whilst buying it off Norway who extract it from the same place, should have been a consideration.

[egg]

1 minute ago, AlexLaw76 said:

In the name of energy security, closing down the capability, whilst buying it off Norway who extract it from the same place, should have been a consideration.

I'm not sure it's "our"oil and gas. We have to buy on the open market, even if it comes from our back yard. Norway had the sense to keep hold of theirs. 

[AlexLaw76]

3 minutes ago, egg said:

I'm not sure it's "our"oil and gas. We have to buy on the open market, even if it comes from our back yard. Norway had the sense to keep hold of theirs. 

But it would be a little cheaper, and/or less reliant on imports

energy security is not solely about price 

[Farmer Saint]

14 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

But it would be a little cheaper, and/or less reliant on imports

energy security is not solely about price 

No it wouldn't, the private companies sell it where they see fit based on global oil and gas prices. That's the issue. Have a read of something other than X:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67945281

 

Edited 7 hours ago by Farmer Saint

[AlexLaw76]

7 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

No it wouldn't, the private companies sell it where they see fit based on global oil and gas prices. That's the issue. Have a read of something other than X:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-67945281

 

As said, security it is not just the cost, but you ignored that. 

[Farmer Saint]

8 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

As said, security it is not just the cost, but you ignored that. 

But we can't refine a lot of it, so that doesn't really matter.

[AlexLaw76]

6 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

But we can't refine a lot of it, so that doesn't really matter.

Kind of an assumption the country could when talking about not drawing down energy extraction from the North Sea. 
 

 

 

[Farmer Saint]

36 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Kind of an assumption the country could when talking about not drawing down energy extraction from the North Sea. 
 

 

 

Why? Whoever extracts it will take it somewhere to be refined.

[egg]

1 hour ago, AlexLaw76 said:

But it would be a little cheaper, and/or less reliant on imports

energy security is not solely about price 

I'm not sure of your point. We don't own the oil and gas, and don't get priority acces. We buy it on the open market, at market prices. Thank Maggie for that. 

[sadoldgit]

2 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

In the name of energy security, closing down the capability, whilst buying it off Norway who extract it from the same place, should have been a consideration.

Perhaps this will help….

 

“most of the extracted oil is exported because it's the wrong type for UK refineries, and new extraction faces high costs, technical challenges with difficult-to-reach reserves, and questions about its impact on energy security and climate goals, with better energy security coming from renewables. The UK relies heavily on imported crude and refined products, as North Sea output is insufficient and not perfectly matched to domestic needs, making renewables and efficiency better for energy independence and net-zero targets.”

Perhaps Trump should check his facts too before opening his mouth.

 

 

 

[AlexLaw76]

1 hour ago, egg said:

I'm not sure of your point. We don't own the oil and gas, and don't get priority acces. We buy it on the open market, at market prices. Thank Maggie for that. 

As I keep saying, security is not purely about price

 

[AlexLaw76]

1 hour ago, sadoldgit said:

Perhaps this will help….

 

 

“most of the extracted oil is exported because it's the wrong type for UK refineries, and new extraction faces high costs, technical challenges with difficult-to-reach reserves, and questions about its impact on energy security and climate goals, with better energy security coming from renewables. The UK relies heavily on imported crude and refined products, as North Sea output is insufficient and not perfectly matched to domestic needs, making renewables and efficiency better for energy independence and net-zero targets.”

Perhaps Trump should check his facts too before opening his mouth.

 

 

 

The uk has decreased the capacity to refine energy from the North Sea, whilst not investing in the means shift to the resources plentiful from that part of the world

it was a choice, and here we are.

Edited 3 hours ago by AlexLaw76

[Guided Missile]

A near miss by Iran on Portsmouth Dockyard, but, as they say, every cloud has a silver lining.

[Gloucester Saint]

On 06/03/2026 at 11:42, egg said:

The impact on the US economy, and beyond will be grave. The petrodallar and US debt are joined at the hip. I haven't really considered how a long term war could help Donny perhaps being able to swerve the mid-terms, but I wonder if there's a selfish political angle that outweighs the US economy. 

There’s some files nobody is talking about at the moment.

[Weston Super Saint]

8 minutes ago, Gloucester Saint said:

There’s some files nobody is talking about at the moment.

X?

[Farmer Saint]

52 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

As I keep saying, security is not purely about price

 

You said "We could obtain more of our own energy from the North Sea in the meantime". How would that work?

Edited 3 hours ago by Farmer Saint

[egg]

So what do we think Donny will have to say for himself in his press conference tonight? Something that'll scare the shit out of the markets no doubt. 

[Weston Super Saint]

24 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

You said "We could obtain more of our own energy from the North Sea in the meantime". How would that work?

Gas?

[Weston Super Saint]

17 minutes ago, egg said:

So what do we think Donny will have to say for himself in his press conference tonight? Something that'll scare the shit out of the markets no doubt. 

Something about him being the greatest and doing the greatest things and everyone else just isn't as good?

[Gloucester Saint]

3 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Gas?

I just farted though and feel better now.

[egg]

1 minute ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Something about him being the greatest and doing the greatest things and everyone else just isn't as good?

We'll get all that for sure, but his press conferences tend to be to deliver some loopy policy. 

[Gloucester Saint]

2 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Something about him being the greatest and doing the greatest things and everyone else just isn't as good?

Probably a mix of:

- I’m the greatest President, this is the greatest war America has ever fought

- Sleepy Joe stole the 2020 Election

- R&A won’t bring the British Open to Turnberry

- I’m going to make Mark Burnett the new Supreme Leader of Iran

[sadoldgit]

Despite Trump’s claim that the school was hit by Iran the evidence shows it was hit by …no surprise here…an American Tomahawk missile.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-girls-school-us-tomahawk-missile-b2934625.html#

[whelk]

29 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Something about him being the greatest and doing the greatest things and everyone else just isn't as good?

Biden still fucking the stocks markets 

[Farmer Saint]

1 hour ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Gas?

 

1 hour ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Gas?

Doesn't really help us from an oil point of view or increasing our energy security as claimed by Alex.

Edited 1 hour ago by Farmer Saint