This is correct its semantics, my wife was on a jury recently and they were advised by the judge that probability can be used to assess circumstantial evidence. A known burglar in possession of someone elses credit card and a stick with a notched end at 5.30am, two minutes away from a house that was broken into. No evidence of him at the scene, no witnesses and his story was he couldn't sleep, went for a walk and found the card. He was found guilty and a few of the jurers had to be persuaded by the judge's guidance.