SaintBobby

I'm sure that's right. He logs onto SWF everyday and cries his eyes out. He's famously known to be incredibly thin-skinned.

Not totally sure how you derive that. We have nearly twice as many shots on goal as our opponents, but aren't scoring many more goals. That might indicate we're shooting TOO MUCH (e.g. wild, useless shots from 30 yards out)

I think he could "experiment" from the bench (e.g. include a couple of youngsters amongst the subs but only seek to use them if we're 3-0+ up or 3-0+ down)

One stat that doesn't seem to be collected is "shots from inside the penalty area". Shots on target from inside the area have a very high % conversion, I'd guess. Shots off target from outside the area have a 0% conversion (barring some weird deflection) - but they all get grouped together as "shots".

IMHO, people do tend to base their view of the performance too much on the actual result. It's hard not to, of course - especially towards the end of the season when everyone gets nervous (e.g. losing 3-2 to Man City on the opening day was generally seen as encouraging, but losing 1 nil to Spurs 9 days ago as pretty disastrous). The same applies to the press too. If we win a game having played averagely, you tend to find our players getting 7s or 8s out of ten. If we lose, having played well, players suddenly start to get 5s and 6s for no apparent reason. Yes, yes, I know that ultimately the game is all about scoring more goals than your opponents and all the stats stuff (possession, shots on goal, shots on target, pass completion rate, successful tackles etc) doesn't formally "count", but it is well worth looking at to work out a team's likely future performances. (A good case this year is when Reading went on that mental run of scoring goals in the last few minutes of several games but their overall stats still looked ropey, sure enough they couldn't continue such a flukey run forever and they went on to sink without trace).

If we do lose 13-0, I'm not sure I'd be very confident on relying on Fulham losing by at least eleven goals to ensure we stay up! :-)

As others have said, if we were certain to finish in a narrow band of final places (say 13th-15th) might be worth experimenting, but given there's over £5m at stake, we really do need to field our strongest team and go for the win. That's probably the same team we put out on Sunday - except I might start with Puncheon and drop either Steve Davies or Lallana to the bench (I'd probably keep Jos at the back given Stoke's aerial threat).

Just to say, if Wigan do beat Arsenal and Villa, most likely it will be Sunderland who get relegated. Assuming Spurs beat Sunderland at White Hart Lane, Villa are safe whatever Wigan do.

Errr, no. We are safe whatever Wigan do as long as we avoid losing to Stoke by 12 goals or more. HTH.

I think we are playing better than we were under Adkins, but the results haven't obviously been much better, frustratingly. A lot hangs on the transfer window, as many have said. We're an 10th-18th sort of side without any new signings, but can definitely aim to the high end of that or even a bit higher if we sign 3 or 4 quality players.

I voted for 42. Which I have to concede now looks a tad unlikely...:-)

The Penguin?

Who did Harry sign for QPR in January and for what transfer fees (and alleged wages?) Wasn't that enough money to buy "quality"?

He was taken off today when we needed to chase the game and it worked. If we fall behind, sacrificing a DM with 20 minutes to go seems tactically wise to me and not a swipe at Cork.

Well, not quite! But we do already know the following: Guaranteed to win the league: 112 points (37 wins and 1 draw means no one can be ahead of you) Guaranteed to qualify for Champs L: 94 points (31 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats means no more than 3 teams can be ahead of you) Guaranteed to qualify for Europa: 88 points (29 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats means no more than 4 teams can be ahead of you) Guaranteed to finish in top ten: 58 points (19 wins, 1 draw and 18 defeats means no more than 9 teams can be ahead of you) Guaranteed to avoid the drop: 58 points (technically, all teams could win 19 and lose 19 and all 20 teams would be on 57 points and separated only by GD) Guaranteed to be relegated: 5 points (technically, the bottom four teams could all draw 6 and lose 32, so 4th from bottom could be on 6 points and stay up on GD) I seriously need to get out more....

I wonder if Shaw ends up as a left midfielder/winger?

I recklessly suggested we could afford to experiment against Sunderland. Truth is that with so much prize money at stake, we should play our best starting XI. Not against some experimentation on the bench, but we should only use untried players if we have definitely won or definitely lost (and if we've definitely lost then to be confident we aren't risking heading for a 12-0 defeat!)

Nice bit of research. Well, it is possible we end up tied with Fulham then. Wonder when such a thing last happened?

Agreed. Completely agreed. That was pure gold.

Tbh, I can't remember exactly what you said or how definite you were that we weren't going to finish 10th. If someone yesterday lunchtime had said "There's absolutely no way Man City will win the FA Cup. Not a chance. Not a prayer. Absolute snowball in hell odds", then I think that person would look pretty stupid even though Wigan edged it 1-0.

It's unlikely, but not totally impossible. It needs 4 results to go our way (although we want the clear favourites to win 3 of them). If you put an accumulator bet on it (Saints, Arsenal, Man City and Reading all to win), it comes out at about a 25/1 shot.

Ok, this was a nerdy and pointless waste of two hours of my time. And I'm not sure I've got this quite right. But here goes.... TO FINISH 10th Saints need to beat Stoke and ALL of the following to happen: 1. West Ham lose at home to Reading 2. Norwich fail to beat Man City away 3. Newcastle fail to beat Arsenal at home 4. Fulham fail to beat Swansea away by 2 more goals than we beat Stoke by TO FINISH 11th Saints need to beat Stoke and need EXACTLY 3 of the following 4 things to happen (if all happen, we go up a place, for each additional one that doesn't, we go down a place) 1. West Ham lose at home to Reading 2. Norwich fail to beat Man City away 3. Newcastle fail to beat Arsenal at home 4. Fulham fail to beat Swansea away by 2 more goals than we beat Stoke by TO FINISH 12th Saints beat Stoke and then we need EXACTLY 2 of the following 4 things to happen (for each additional one that happens, we go up a place, for each additional one that doesn't, we go down a place) 1. West Ham lose at home to Reading 2. Norwich fail to beat Man City away 3. Newcastle fail to beat Arsenal at home 4. Fulham fail to beat Swansea away by 2 more goals than we beat Stoke by OR Saints need to draw with Stoke and need ALL of the following 5 things to happen 1. Norwich lose away at Man City 2. Newcastle lose at home to Arsenal 3. Fulham fail to beat Swansea away 4. Villa fail to beat Wigan away 5. Sunderland to fail to beat Spurs away TO FINISH 13th Saints beat Stoke AND EXACTLY 1 of the following 4 things happens (for each additional one that happens, we go up a place, if none happen, we go down a place) 1. West Ham lose at home to Reading 2. Norwich fail to beat Man City away 3. Newcastle fail to beat Arsenal at home 4. Fulham fail to beat Swansea away by 2 more goals than we beat Stoke by OR Saints draw with Stoke and need EXACTLY 4 of the following 5 things to happen (if all 5 happen, we finish 12th, if only 3 or fewer happen we drop to 14th, if only 2 happen we drop the 15th etc) 1. Norwich lose away to Man City 2. Newcastle lose at home to Arsenal 3. Fulham fail to beat Swansea away 4. Villa fail to beat Wigan away 5. Sunderland fail to beat Spurs away TO FINISH 14th Saints will finish at least 14th if we win our final game - irrespective of results elsewhere. OR Saints draw with Stoke and EXACTLY 3 of the following 5 things happen (for each additional one that happens, we go up a place, for each additional one that doesn't, we go down a place) 1. Norwich lose away to Man City 2. Newcastle lose at home to Arsenal 3. Fulham fail to beat Swansea away 4. Villa fail to beat Wigan away 5. Sunderland fail to beat Spurs away OR Saints lose to Stoke and ALL of the following 3 things happen: 1. Wigan fail to beat Arsenal but do beat Villa 2. Fulham lose to Swansea away (and Saints don't lose by 3 more than Swansea) 3. Sunderland lose to Spurs away OR draw with Spurs away and Saints only lose by one goal. TO FINISH 15th Saints draw with Stoke and EXACTLY 2 of the following 5 things happen (for each additional one that happens, we go up a place, for each additional one that doesn't, we go down a place) 1. Norwich lose away to Man City 2. Newcastle lose at home to Arsenal 3. Fulham fail to beat Swansea away 4. Villa fail to beat Wigan away 5. Sunderland fail to beat Spurs away Or Saints lose to Stoke and ONE AND ONLY 1 of the following 4 things happen 1. Wigan beat both Arsenal and Villa 2. Wigan v Villa is a draw 3. Fulham lose to Swansea away (and Saints don't lose by 3 more than Swansea) 4. Sunderland lose to Spurs away OR draw with Spurs away and Saints only lose by one goal. TO FINISH 16th Saints draw with Stoke and ONLY 1 of the following 5 things happen (for each additional one that happens, we go up a place, if none happen we go down a place) 1. Norwich lose away to Man City 2. Newcastle lose at home to Arsenal 3. Fulham fail to beat Swansea away 4. Villa fail to beat Wigan away 5. Sunderland fail to beat Spurs away Or Saints lose to Stoke and EXACTLY 2 of the following 3 things happen 1. Wigan beat both Arsenal & Villa OR Wigan v Villa is a draw 2. Fulham lose to Swansea away (and Saints don't lose by 3 more than Swansea) 3. Sunderland lose to Spurs away OR draw with Spurs away and Saints only lose by one goal. TO FINISH 17th Saints draw with Stoke and ALL of the following 5 things happen (for each one that doesn't we go up a place) 1. Norwich draw or win away to Man City 2. Newcastle draw or win at home to Arsenal 3. Fulham beat Swansea away 4. Villa beat Wigan away 5. Sunderland beat Spurs away OR Saints lose to Stoke and ALL of the following 3 things happen 1. Wigan beat both Arsenal and Villa OR Villa v Wigan is a draw 2. Fulham manage to avoid losing to Swansea by 2 goals more than Saints have lost to Stoke 3. Sunderland win at Spurs or draw at Spurs if Saints lose by more than one goal (NOTE re: Fulham: If Saints win 2-1 (or 3-2 or 4-2) and Fulham win 3-0 (or 4-1 or 5-1) then the two teams will be tied on points, goal difference and goals scored and our head-to-head results are also a 3-3 aggregate draw. I'm guessing Fulham then overtake Saints on away goals (their 2 to our 1) in our head-to-heads, but I've ignored this eventuality) TO FINISH 18th (FOR THE ABSOLUTE BEDWETTERS!): ALL of the following would need to happen: 1. Wigan need to beat Arsenal on Tuesday 2. Wigan need to beat Villa on Sunday 3. Saints need to lose by at least 11 goals more than Villa lose by (and by 12 goals more than Villa unless Villa contrive to score at least 4 goals and still lose at Wigan) 4. Spurs would need to fail to beat Sunderland at White Hart Lane.

It's potentially only 12-0, if Villa lose 5-4 or 6-5 or something mental. But this is so far off into la-la land that it's really not worth considering.

We can go down if we lose by 12-0 or more to Stoke, Wigan beat Arsenal and Villa and Sunderland don't lose away to Spurs. The chance of this happening is less than St. Mary's being nuked in the next 7 days or the club being liquidated or kicked out of the league for some reason or other. If you're worried about how or why Saints won't be in the Premier League next season, the league table should not be your biggest concern.

Err...you can only have one of Watford and Palace. If they have suddenly made it "4 up, 4 down" then maybe Saints aren't safe after all!