Matthew Le God Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 (edited) - 17 points from the playoffs. - 17 games left. - 10 home games left. - 7 away games left. - 2 games in hand. - Games against play off rivals Swindon and Huddersfield at St Mary's. - 88 points still possible, roughly 76 points needed for playoffs. - January signings now settled and Pardew has his best starting eleven that beat Norwich away 2-0 to use for the rest of the season. Davis Otsemobor Fonte Jaidi Harding Puncheon Hammond Schneiderlin Lallana Lambert Barnard Sub: Bialkowski Seaborne James Holmes Antonio Papa Waigo Connolly 10 Home Games: Walsall Huddersfield Leeds Swindon Hartlepool Leyton Orient Charlton Oldham Carlisle Southend 7 Away Games: Wycombe Tranmere MK Dons Brighton Bristol Rovers Yeovil Gillingham Roughly 13 wins needed Possible or pipe dream? With that starting line up and the fixture list I think it is very much possible. Edited 21 February, 2010 by Matthew Le God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Walsall, Wycombe, Tranmere, MK Dons, Brighton, Gillingham, Yeovil, Oldham, Leyton Orient, Carlisle, Hartlepool, Southend are games we should certainly win. All the others we can definitely win. Will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popester Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Well all those away games are winnable MLG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
red and white saint Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Looking at the remaining games it is possible, really dont see us dropping to many points away from home and as long as are home form continues we might just do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glasgow_Saint Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Unlikely because - Won 1 game against top 6 side all season! Win ratio close to 1:3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rocknrollman no2 Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Anythings possible i suppose.Until its mathematically impossible we still have a chance and as long as we dont have key players getting injured.But personally i think we have left it too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windmill Arm 2 Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Unlikely because - Won 1 game against top 6 side all season! Win ratio close to 1:3 AP now has a full settled squad to choose from you negative old scrotum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 21 February, 2010 Author Share Posted 21 February, 2010 (edited) Unlikely because - Won 1 game against top 6 side all season! Win ratio close to 1:3 How many of those games did Saints line up like this? Davis Otsemobor Fonte Jaidi Harding Puncheon Hammond Schneiderlin Lallana Lambert Barnard Sub: Bialkowski Seaborne James Holmes Antonio Papa Waigo Connolly ANSWER = One game - Away to top of the league Norwich City yesterday and won 2-0 Only four of the remaining fixtures are against top six teams. All four of them are at St Mary's. Even if they did lose all four at home to Leeds, Swindon, Huddersfield and Charlton (which I don't think they will)...Saints need to win 13 out of 17 games. 17 minus 4 equals 13. Edited 21 February, 2010 by Matthew Le God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glasgow_Saint Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 How many of those games did Saints line up like this? Davis Otsemobor Fonte Jaidi Harding Puncheon Hammond Schneiderlin Lallana Lambert Barnard Sub: Bialkowski Seaborne Wotton Holmes Antonio Papa Waigo Connolly Only four of the remaining fixtures are against top six teams. All four of them are at St Mary's. Even if they did lose all four at home, Saints need to win 13 out of 17 games. 17 minus 4 equals 13. Yep the side that played yesterday should/could win every game left that is true. Likely? Huddersfield already have 54 points so would only need 7 wins and 2 draws from the remaining 15 games to beat your suggested 13 wins from 17. Because of the -10 we could have made the PO with one 'small' poor period. Unfortunatly we have already had two fairly extended poor runs. Just my thoughts but think we have drawn to many games and are very unlikely to win 14 or 15 of the last 17 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madruss Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Unlikely because - Won 1 game against top 6 side all season! Win ratio close to 1:3 Or....won 100% of games against top 6 teams in 2010!! Therefore we'll win the next 4 games against said top 6 teams! It's all about picking and choosing your statistics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glasgow_Saint Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Or....won 100% of games against top 6 teams in 2010!! Therefore we'll win the next 4 games against said top 6 teams! It's all about picking and choosing your statistics! Yep the season started Jan 1st 2010. You'll need to debate that with NickG as he is convinced the league starts after your 1st win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dig Dig Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Yep the season started Jan 1st 2010. You'll need to debate that with NickG as he is convinced the league starts after your 1st win. Excellent..........here we go again....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 21 February, 2010 Author Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Yep the season started Jan 1st 2010. The season didn't but form charts did. Saints side today is very different to how it has been for most of the season. Thus you can't judge the current 11 players wearing Saints shirts on the failure of a different set of players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 I don't think we will make it. It's not just the -10, it's the damned annoying fact that the teams in the playoff slots are doing so well. I was hoping 70 points might be enough for a post-season berth, but it looks more like 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dig Dig Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 I don't think we will make it. It's not just the -10, it's the damned annoying fact that the teams in the playoff slots are doing so well. I was hoping 70 points might be enough for a post-season berth, but it looks more like 80. One of them could well still have a blip though.....almost always happens at this stage of the season to some team. If it does happen we have to make sure that we take full advantage in order to have a chance of making it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madruss Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Yep the side that played yesterday should/could win every game left that is true. Likely? Huddersfield already have 54 points so would only need 7 wins and 2 draws from the remaining 15 games to beat your suggested 13 wins from 17. Because of the -10 we could have made the PO with one 'small' poor period. Unfortunatly we have already had two fairly extended poor runs. Just my thoughts but think we have drawn to many games and are very unlikely to win 14 or 15 of the last 17 games. I dunno, Huddersfield's away form is worse than ours is, and they've got more away games left than home games. Plus they still have 5 of the top 6 left to play (so we also need to factor in that when the top 6 play each other, we're guaranteed to gain a minimum of two points on one of those teams) Obviously it's an unlikely number of wins for us to get, but then the odds were firmly stacked against us to win at Carrow Road yesterday and we did.....and comfortably! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glasgow_Saint Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 The season didn't but form charts did. Saints side today is very different to how it has been for most of the season. Thus you can't judge the current 11 players wearing Saints shirts on the failure of a different set of players. If, If, If We did manage to win 13 from 17 we would finish with 76 points To finish above us - Huddersfield would need to win just 7 and draw 2 from 15 Swindon would need to win just 7 games from a remaining 16 Charlton would need just 6 wins from 14 Colchester would need just 5 wins from 14 If any of the above did really **** up then Millwall would need just 8 wins from 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 21 February, 2010 Author Share Posted 21 February, 2010 If, If, If We did manage to win 13 from 17 we would finish with 76 points To finish above us - Huddersfield would need to win just 7 and draw 2 from 15 Swindon would need to win just 7 games from a remaining 16 Charlton would need just 6 wins from 14 Colchester would need just 5 wins from 14 If any of the above did really **** up then Millwall would need just 8 wins from 16 Even 14 or 15 wins is possible from Saints. Which would be enough. On paper there is a good case that Saints should be capable of winning all 17. Yes, I realise games aren't won on paper but I believe for the first time in the season Saints NOW have a better team than Leeds and Norwich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glasgow_Saint Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Even 14 or 15 wins is possible from Saints. Which would be enough. On paper there is a good case that Saints should be capable of winning all 17. Yes, I realise games aren't won on paper but I believe for the first time in the season Saints NOW have a better team than Leeds and Norwich. I think you're getting a bit carried away with one decent performance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 If, If, If We did manage to win 13 from 17 we would finish with 76 points To finish above us - Huddersfield would need to win just 7 and draw 2 from 15 Swindon would need to win just 7 games from a remaining 16 Charlton would need just 6 wins from 14 Colchester would need just 5 wins from 14 If any of the above did really **** up then Millwall would need just 8 wins from 16 Yep - herein lies the problem. The teams in 3rd-7th place are doing very well. To close the gap at the rate of about a point a game is a huge ask. I reckon we may well average more than 2 points a game, but we probably need to be averaging about 2.5 to make the play-offs. Bridge too far. I'd be happy with finishing 8th or 9th with a great last 1/3 of the season and being installed as clear favourites for next season. I want Leeds, Norwich and Charlton to go up and Plymouth, Peterborough and S****horpe to come down. Saints win League One next season with well over 100 points. Simples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madsent Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 - 17 points from the playoffs. - 17 games left. - 10 home games left. - 7 away games left. - 2 games in hand. - Games against play off rivals Swindon and Huddersfield at St Mary's. - 88 points still possible, roughly 76 points needed for playoffs. - January signings now settled and Pardew has his best starting eleven that beat Norwich away 2-0 to use for the rest of the season. Davis Otsemobor Fonte Jaidi Harding Puncheon Hammond Schneiderlin Lallana Lambert Barnard Sub: Bialkowski Seaborne James Holmes Antonio Papa Waigo Connolly 10 Home Games: Walsall Huddersfield Leeds Swindon Hartlepool Leyton Orient Charlton Oldham Carlisle Southend 7 Away Games: Wycombe Tranmere MK Dons Brighton Bristol Rovers Yeovil Gillingham Roughly 13 wins needed Possible or pipe dream? With that starting line up and the fixture list I think it is very much possible. We'll probably go into every game as favourites now and we're good enough to win any of them. We certainly could win 13 games (or more) but it is only the exceptional teams that actually go on that kind of run. There's a good chance it wouldn't be enough anyway given the current form of Colchester, Swindon, Huddersfield and Millwall especially as we are only playing 2 of them again. I think we'll end up with somewhere between 65 and 75 points and teams will need somewhere around 79 points to get into the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 21 February, 2010 Author Share Posted 21 February, 2010 I think you're getting a bit carried away with one decent performance! I think you need to stop using the failures of one Saints team to judge the quality of another different set of players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordswoodsaints Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Although it is possible I don't think it will happen. We also have to rely on a few teams going on a bad run of results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Even if we go on an exceptional run the chances are enough teams above us will get enough points so it is very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 21 February, 2010 Author Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Although it is possible I don't think it will happen. We also have to rely on a few teams going on a bad run of results. Win the two games in hand and beat Huddersfield at St Mary's and Saints would be just 8 points behind them and have 14 games to catch them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beatlesaint Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Unforutnately I think we will just miss out, probably by about 5 points. Law of averages if nothing else suggests we will not beat MK Dons again.....to beat a team 4 times in one season is one hell of an ask. I think the optimism following one very good result is good, but its only on a par with the over the top negatvivity that was evidient on this board when we drew at Exeter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madruss Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 I think you're getting a bit carried away with one decent performance! I think yesterday's performance could be the turning point to our bad run of league form. One of two things will happen now: a) Yesterday's result inspires the team to go on a brilliant winning run which puts us right in amongst the playoff chasing pack come April b) Yesterday's result leads to complacency in the side and they take their foot off the gas in the so called 'easier' games against Wycombe and Walsall this week. This leads to a disappointing draw(s) and the aforementioned winning run never materialises. Fingers crossed it'll be a) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 21 February, 2010 Author Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Law of averages if nothing else suggests we will not beat MK Dons again.....to beat a team 4 times in one season is one hell of an ask. That makes no logical sense! Good enough to win 3 times shows you are better so why not win again? Especially as Puncheon was one of their best players and is a negative for them not playing and a positive for Saints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madruss Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 That makes no logical sense! Good enough to win 3 times shows you are better so why not win again? Agreed. No-one who'd watched the three games we've played against MK Dons this season could dispute how vastly superior we were to them in every department. Only complacency will stop us beating them again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Keith Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 (edited) agree we have to go one hell of a run to make it, which is do-able, but it needs one or two of the teams in the top 8 to majorly hit reverse Edited 21 February, 2010 by Saint Keith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr X Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Pipe dream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beatlesaint Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 That makes no logical sense! Good enough to win 3 times shows you are better so why not win again? Especially as Puncheon was one of their best players and is a negative for them not playing and a positive for Saints. No, you are absolutely right, it makes no logical sense, but if football made logical sense it would be a lot more boring. Leeds going to Man Utd and winning made no logical sense but it happened. I just dont think we will beat them for a fourth time.....obviously i hope i am wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy_Porter Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 If we could have just got that all important second against Brentford and Exeter we'd be looking so much more confident right now, so annoying. It's do able for sure, just hope our players have got the bottle for it come the end of the season, adapting to the pressure when there are only a handfull of games left will be the acid test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SET Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Looking at fixtures i think saints will drop a max of 8 points from those games, i'd have thought at start of season 80 points would be enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legod Third Coming Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Unlikely because - Won 1 game against top 6 side all season! Win ratio close to 1:3 And that was the league leaders away 2-0 with a full squad available... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legod Third Coming Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Although it is possible I don't think it will happen. We also have to rely on a few teams going on a bad run of results. No, we don't. This is why I did the league predictor on BBC. If the teams higher in the league beat those below them most often, it is entirely in our hands, as long as we WIN ALL OUR GAMES. That is a big ask, but not impossible. Just as we have to play the top teams so they have to play each other - they can't all win all those games. It is not easy, not remotely. But seventeen points in seventeen games - or rather 11 points in fifteen games is achievable (assuming we win both our games in hand). Tough as hell, but achievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arizona Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Quick question. Have we ever done the quadruple over a team before? I only ask because we've got a trip to Milton Keynes coming up in the not too distant future and they have been utterly abysmal in the last three encounters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VectisSaint Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Its a pipe dream. We lost the chance when we failed to beat Exeter and other results went against us. The only possible chance is to overhaul Huddersfield, forget the others they are gone. I guess if we win our 2 games in hand and beat Huddersfield it could be on again, but highly unlikely. Huddersfield have a tough run-in, with 5 of the top 6 plus us to play, so they could be vulnerable. So if you believe in miracles I guess you could carry on dreaming a while longer but in my opinion it won't happen (but of course I'll be over the moon if it does) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Block 5 Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Possible or pipe dream? We need to go on one hell of a winning streak AND we need a couple of teams already in play off positions to have a blip; but that does tend to happen towards the end of the season. So I would say that it is possible, however years of supporting Saints has conditioned me to the negative mindset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ewell Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 If, If, If We did manage to win 13 from 17 we would finish with 76 points To finish above us - Huddersfield would need to win just 7 and draw 2 from 15 Swindon would need to win just 7 games from a remaining 16 Charlton would need just 6 wins from 14 Colchester would need just 5 wins from 14 If any of the above did really **** up then Millwall would need just 8 wins from 16 Despite disagreeing with the majority of your negative inane postings I think this is the key point and one I fully agree with. To have any chance I think we need to win at least 14-15 matches to have as I can see the play off target being at least 79 points. That isn't to say we should not go for it and at least try and put pressure on the teams above. Pressure can work in strange ways and one or two may go on bad runs but the question is will they be bad enough? :confused: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TopGun Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Pipe dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St_Tel49 Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 1. We pretty much have to win all our remaining games 2. We have to depend on a number of teams above having a significant number of losses. (at least 4 assuming we do win all our remaining games) 2 is the one that I am concerned about so my conclusion is - possible but unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legod Third Coming Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Despite disagreeing with the majority of your negative inane postings I think this is the key point and one I fully agree with. To have any chance I think we need to win at least 14-15 matches to have as I can see the play off target being at least 79 points. That isn't to say we should not go for it and at least try and put pressure on the teams above. Pressure can work in strange ways and one or two may go on bad runs but the question is will they be bad enough? :confused: They don't have to go on bad runs - they just have to play each other... I've run and re-run the predictor over and over assuming that all the top teams will win all their games - apart from against us and against one another when I have factored in some draws - ie. Huddersfield v Leeds I have suggested will be a score draw? In most cases I have assumed the higher-placed team will win at home. I think I've been really, really fair. In doing this, come 23rd March we are either 4 or 6 points behind Huddersfield... No cheating, no pipe dreams, just assuming we win all our games between now and then... which we could do, are capable of doing and just need our players to believe it's possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St_Tel49 Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 (edited) Unlikely but very possible. Aren't the beginning and end of that phrase mutually contradictory ;-) Edited 22 February, 2010 by St_Tel49 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SparkySaint Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 AP now has a full settled squad to choose from you negative old scrotum! And the best squad in the league. I believe it is possible for us to get to where we need to be. A win on tuesday night (3-0) and a good win on saturday (4-0) will be the perfect start to our playoff push COYR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurosaint Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Yep - herein lies the problem. The teams in 3rd-7th place are doing very well. To close the gap at the rate of about a point a game is a huge ask. I reckon we may well average more than 2 points a game, but we probably need to be averaging about 2.5 to make the play-offs. Bridge too far. I'd be happy with finishing 8th or 9th with a great last 1/3 of the season and being installed as clear favourites for next season. I want Leeds, Norwich and Charlton to go up and Plymouth, Peterborough and S****horpe to come down. Saints win League One next season with well over 100 points. Simples. I think that you have summed it up pretty well ! I will not be too disappointed if your scenario comes to pass ! Be nice to win the JPT for 2 consecutive years as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hamilton Saint Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 (edited) Even with two and three games in hand over other teams, the gap is just a bit too much. It's possible for us to go on an extended winning streak; but we would also need one of the play-off contenders to have an extended slump. The likelihood of both things happening is low. Ergo, unfortunately, it's a pipe dream. Edited 21 February, 2010 by Hamilton Saint italics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
musesaint Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 I believe in miracles :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legod Third Coming Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Huddersfield still have to play: Charlton Norwich Leeds Colchester oh and us... That's why we have a chance. Because many of the top eight must play one another and they can't all win all those games. If we do, we'll be in the play-offs - slump or no slump elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glasgow_Saint Posted 21 February, 2010 Share Posted 21 February, 2010 Huddersfield still have to play: Charlton Norwich Leeds Colchester oh and us... That's why we have a chance. Because many of the top eight must play one another and they can't all win all those games. If we do, we'll be in the play-offs - slump or no slump elsewhere. Huddersfield could lose 7 games and still beat our 13 wins from 17! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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