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Pollsters Predict a Tory Majority


dune
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The Independent on Sunday today carries a summary of the views of the people behind the many published opinion polls we are seeing at the moment.

 

Although the polls are argued to be pointing to a hung Parliament, the pollsters do not seem to share that view:

 

Andrew Hawkins, ComRes, pollster for the IoS

 

“This is one election where a uniform national swing is less important than regional performance. There is a danger that the polls still overstate Labour, and history shows that the result will probably favour the Tories.”

 

Prediction Con majority 32

 

Ben Page, Ipsos-MORI

 

”It is too close to call in terms of numbers of seats. The Tories are not doing well enough in the marginals to be certain of a majority. But the TV debates could make a decisive difference.”

 

Prediction Con 25 seats short of overall majority – he has since clarified that this prediction is based on current polls. He also believes that the Conservatives will get a majority on polling day.

 

Andrew Cooper, Populus

 

“With certain caveats, I expect the Conservatives will get just under 40 per cent, Labour just over 30 per cent and the Lib Dems just over 20 per cent. I expect David Cameron to be PM with a majority of more than 10 but less than 50.”

 

Prediction Con majority of 10+

 

Peter Kellner, YouGov

 

“The Conservatives will have a small overall majority, and I think that the Lib Dems will do reasonably well. The public don’t want Gordon Brown but have shown no enthusiasm for David Cameron, who is heading for a narrow majority.”

 

Prediction Con majority 20-30

 

Robert Salvoni, Harris Interactive

 

“We believe that the 10-point Tory lead is soft; probably a reflection of disenchantment with Gordon Brown and Labour. Our polls show many more people who have voted Labour in the past are inclined to switch or not vote.”

 

Prediction Con majority 2-10

 

Andy Morris, Angus Reid

 

“The Conservatives will win, and I think they’ll end up with a small but workable majority, My view is the Tories will win the popular vote comfortably by about 8 to 10 per cent, with a disproportionate swing in the marginals.”

 

Prediction Con majority 40-50

 

Martin Boon, ICM Research

 

“I think the Conservatives will win by about eight to nine points. Of course, there’s no reliable guide to converting votes to seats. The real wild cards are the leaders’ debates – nobody knows how far they might influence people.”

 

Prediction Con majority 20

 

Johnny Heald, Opinion Research Business

 

“I do a lot of focus group work with target voters, and the desire to remove Gordon Brown is clearly stronger than the wish to elect the Tories. Cameron can also offer a bit of hope which people badly need.”

 

Prediction Con majority 40+

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Many of those 'results' will give us a hung parliament.

 

And it's the swing that's important. A swing of 7+% is needed for the Tories to be in overall control. That's not the same as a lead.

 

There's plenty of time yet - the 'marriage tax' hasn't gone down too well and that won't be reflected in the polls these psephologists have looked at.

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Thank you. This is the article that starts "The latest polls put Labour and Conservatives close enough for the Tories to be 15 seats short of a majority. More worryingly, people believe neither Labour nor Tory leaders are being honest", yes?

 

And goes on to say: "Mr Brown, boosted by polls that continue to show he could deny the Tories victory on 6 May, will unveil a manifesto tomorrow ..." and to say: "However, the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, comes out top (23 per cent) on the question of who would make the best chancellor, followed by the Lib Dem and Tory Shadow Chancellors, Vince Cable and George Osborne (on 21 per cent and 19 per cent respectively)".

 

And, to be pedantic, the bit you've picked out is no clearer - it says 'Tories to win, but by how much'. It does talk about a majority but it would be wise to put the parameters in to see what the majority is over (what). Tories over Labour? Tories over Labour + assortment of 'others'?

 

FYI pollsters are also known as psephologists.

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Thank you. This is the article that starts "The latest polls put Labour and Conservatives close enough for the Tories to be 15 seats short of a majority. More worryingly, people believe neither Labour nor Tory leaders are being honest", yes?

 

And goes on to say: "Mr Brown, boosted by polls that continue to show he could deny the Tories victory on 6 May, will unveil a manifesto tomorrow ..." and to say: "However, the Chancellor, Alistair Darling, comes out top (23 per cent) on the question of who would make the best chancellor, followed by the Lib Dem and Tory Shadow Chancellors, Vince Cable and George Osborne (on 21 per cent and 19 per cent respectively)".

 

And, to be pedantic, the bit you've picked out is no clearer - it says 'Tories to win, but by how much'. It does talk about a majority but it would be wise to put the parameters in to see what the majority is over (what). Tories over Labour? Tories over Labour + assortment of 'others'?

 

FYI pollsters are also known as psephologists.

 

It's pretty standard talk to consider a majority to mean an overall majority. I'm now feling a lot more confident that we'll get rid of Brown and his cronies anyway.:p

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Bought the Independent yesterday and saw this as well. I'm in the same boat as Robert Salvoni, as i'm not sure that the Tories will have enough for a majority. A hung parliament is a very likely thing to happen imo. People don't have enough trust in Cameron to vote outright for him, and 1 slip-up over the next couple of weeks could see that Conservative lead slip. The polls are still pretty damn close considering there's 3 weeks left.

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The polls are still pretty damn close considering there's 3 weeks left.

And how unpopular the current Govt is supposed to be. Even on here the Tories are only 8% ahead of Labour, which would not give them enough for an overall majority.

Edited by badgerx16
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Labour will probably continue to embarrass themselves throughout the campaign. I would expect their vote to be lower than currently predicted. Who that vote goes to (if anyone) is harder to predict IMO.

 

I might be biased in saying this, but I think the Lib Dems have conducted themselves very well thus far and may well take a large slice of the disillusioned Labour voters. Vince Cable shone in the chancellors debate and Nick Clegg isn't being caught up in the ridiculous slanging match between Brown and Cameron, just throwing in the odd kidney-punch every now and then. I think the polls in a couple of weeks time will make very interesting reading, and unless something drastic happens between now and then which can have an influence on the voters, I can see the Conservatives and Labour's points totals both slipping slightly from where they are at the moment.

 

I'm predicting something like:

 

CONSER - 35%

LABOUR - 30%

LIBERALS - 23%

OTHERS - 12%

 

But it'll probably be closer to:

 

CONSER - 38%

LABOUR - 32%

LIBERALS - 20%

OTHERS - 10%

 

Of course, it all really depends on how these leaders debates go, they could well be a deciding factor in how people vote, and i'm sure many people are waiting until these happen before they decide how they're going to cast their votes.

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I might be biased in saying this, but I think the Lib Dems have conducted themselves very well thus far and may well take a large slice of the disillusioned Labour voters. Vince Cable shone in the chancellors debate and Nick Clegg isn't being caught up in the ridiculous slanging match between Brown and Cameron, just throwing in the odd kidney-punch every now and then. I think the polls in a couple of weeks time will make very interesting reading, and unless something drastic happens between now and then which can have an influence on the voters, I can see the Conservatives and Labour's points totals both slipping slightly from where they are at the moment.

 

I'm predicting something like:

 

CONSER - 35%

LABOUR - 30%

LIBERALS - 23%

OTHERS - 12%

 

But it'll probably be closer to:

 

CONSER - 38%

LABOUR - 32%

LIBERALS - 20%

OTHERS - 10%

 

Of course, it all really depends on how these leaders debates go, they could well be a deciding factor in how people vote, and i'm sure many people are waiting until these happen before they decide how they're going to cast their votes.

 

But these percentages have to be translated into actual seats. Only then can we see how much (disproportionate) influence the Liberals will have.

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The Liberals will certainly come in useful in marginals where there's Muslims (i.e Luton South) because the Muslims will vote Liberal instead of Labour handing victory to the Conservatives.

Edited by dune
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Feel free to do that :D

 

I wish I could :(

 

Percentage leads won't matter a bag of beans as swings will be what counts in the marginals. The swings will be less (and won't matter so much) in safe seats.

 

Unless they poll every marginal, it's difficult to see how anyone can call it this time.

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I wish I could :(

 

Percentage leads won't matter a bag of beans as swings will be what counts in the marginals. The swings will be less (and won't matter so much) in safe seats.

 

Unless they poll every marginal, it's difficult to see how anyone can call it this time.

 

Might as well try though...

 

Using BBC Seat Predictor (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8609989.stm)

 

My Personal Predictions: Conservative 35%, Labour 30%, Lib Dems 23%, Other 12%

 

CON - 266 seats

LAB - 290 seats

LIB - 65 seats

OTH - 29 seats

 

Result: Hung Parliament

 

My Realistic Predictions: Conservative 38%, Labour 32%, Lib Dems 20%, Other 10%

 

CON - 290 seats

LAB - 280 seats

LIB - 51 seats

OTH - 29 seats

 

Result: Hung Parliament

 

Difficult to see how either party could win it outright at this point in time tbh.

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Might as well try though...

 

Using BBC Seat Predictor (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8609989.stm)

 

My Personal Predictions: Conservative 35%, Labour 30%, Lib Dems 23%, Other 12%

 

CON - 266 seats

LAB - 290 seats

LIB - 65 seats

OTH - 29 seats

 

Result: Hung Parliament

 

My Realistic Predictions: Conservative 38%, Labour 32%, Lib Dems 20%, Other 10%

 

CON - 290 seats

LAB - 280 seats

LIB - 51 seats

OTH - 29 seats

 

Result: Hung Parliament

 

Difficult to see how either party could win it outright at this point in time tbh.

 

I reckon your prediction is probably about right unless there are any major bloopers between now and election day.

 

Shame because a hung parliament is no good for anyone except those who will have a disproportionate say in the future.

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My personal opinion is that the Tory's will poll better than the opinion polls . A lot of people dont want to be seen as Tory but when alone in the booth, they'll put an X next to them.This is not based on any sort of sceintific data, just my gut feeling.

 

This is what a lot of commentators are predicting too.

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My personal opinion is that the Tory's will poll better than the opinion polls . A lot of people dont want to be seen as Tory but when alone in the booth, they'll put an X next to them.This is not based on any sort of sceintific data, just my gut feeling.

 

Funnily enough I think the opposite - more people will vote labour than are currently admitting to it. An unpopular incumbent party always firms up it's numbers on election day. Come election day I'd expect the difference in the polls to be closer to a 5% lead for the Tories. How that plays out in the marginals is anyones guess.

 

Another thing is the Lib Dems - they need an unpopular Tory party because that is their natural constituency. A resurgent Tory party is bad news for them (and labour). From a party success point of view they should be moving further right to challenge the Tories and they should have done it 2001 and 2005 - when you're more successful in the South than the North then it's not clever to be perceived to be more lefty than Labour; increasing the tax burden for the rich gains support where it matters least for them. In both years I mentioned they had a golden opportunity to bury the Tory party - Iain Duncan Smith and Michael Howard anyone? They blew it and instead gained most of their votes as a protest against the Iraq war (2005) and Tory disillusionment. Can't see that happening again - expect a drop in seats for them.

 

Personally I see the Tories getting a small majority - around ten or so. With the support of the Ulster Unionists it'll be a workable majority. Labour will self implode and Gordon will go to be replaced by Miliband. If he fails to gain credibilty quickly (and he probably will) then labour will get rid before the next general election and replace him with a proper old Labour man. The Tories will call an early election and get a bigger majority.

 

Obviously all in my opinion of course.

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No one party has a majority big enough not to be out voted by the rest.

 

Yeah... thank you kind Sir.

 

So that could be absolute hell if one party suggests one thing but others oppose it? And so forth? And what are the chances of a coalition government in the UK?

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I still think the election could go either way. The Tories don't seem to be running away with it, and their manifesto is disappointing. They will be relying a lot on Murdoch's newspapers. The Sun, in particular, is slightly demented at the moment and making a fool of itself. Trevor Kavanagh is nuts.

 

My gut reaction is the Tories will beat Labour, but may fall short of a majority. Out of the three parties so far, I am most impressed with the Lib campaign, although they won't get my vote. In Clegg, Cable and Huhne theyhave three very impressive campaigners.

 

Maybe a hung Parliament wouldn't be a bad thing.

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