EU referendum

[Wade Garrett]

The out campaign has been overwhelmingly negative so far. What they need to do is set out a vision of how a Britain outside the EU will be. There should be heavyweight reports from KPMG / Deloitte / McKinseys showing realistic options for Britain. They need some economic analysis showing how similar 'independent' countries operate. Instead we've got the Outies telling anybody who isnt convinced by the case so far they're stupid, or scared. If they keep that up they are going to lose and lose very badly.

 

You keep telling yourself that. Only tonight we had more scaremongering from Osborne.

[aintforever]

The out campaign has been overwhelmingly negative so far. What they need to do is set out a vision of how a Britain outside the EU will be. There should be heavyweight reports from KPMG / Deloitte / McKinseys showing realistic options for Britain. They need some economic analysis showing how similar 'independent' countries operate. Instead we've got the Outies telling anybody who isnt convinced by the case so far they're stupid, or scared. If they keep that up they are going to lose and lose very badly.

 

I think the in campaign has been more negative, just playing on people's fear of change.

 

The more I read about the state of the EU, the cost, size and unstoppable movement towards more and more power the more convinced I am to vote out. Hopefully the more the British public learn the less afraid they will be of the alternative.

[TwoPints]

I think the in campaign has been more negative, just playing on people's fear of change.

 

The more I read about the state of the EU, the cost, size and unstoppable movement towards more and more power the more convinced I am to vote out. Hopefully the more the British public learn the less afraid they will be of the alternative.

I'm not afraid but I'll be voting to remain in. Am I the only one? If you think people are only voting to stay in because they're afraid then you're wrong.

[Batman]

I'm not afraid but I'll be voting to remain in. Am I the only one? If you think people are only voting to stay in because they're afraid then you're wrong.

 

I think the biggest challenge for Cameron will be managing the immigrant explosion that is in-bound from the med. regardless if they come here or not it will further highlight the utterly pathetic policy the EU has had and will no doubt, continue to have in that area.

[aintforever]

I'm not afraid but I'll be voting to remain in. Am I the only one? If you think people are only voting to stay in because they're afraid then you're wrong.

 

Everyone will have their own reasons but the in campaign are playing on people's fear of change, and it will probably work because the economy is doing OK.

[Whitey Grandad]

Yeah. Coz what we really need to help us decide is dodgy statistics. And the more the better.

 

Of course, the Outers won't have any statistics to help their case. It's all based on hope and wishful thinking.

[Lord Duckhunter]

I think the biggest challenge for Cameron will be managing the immigrant explosion that is in-bound from the med. regardless if they come here or not it will further highlight the utterly pathetic policy the EU has had and will no doubt, continue to have in that area.

 

This is exactly why the vote is being hurried through in June . The manifesto commitment was by the end of 2017 , which would have given Cameron more time to negotiate a decent settlement . He couldn't do that because he wants us in before the shiete hits the fan.

[Pamplemousse]

Lol, when the in campaign state the facts, the outers call it scaremongering. Laughable.

[Batman]

Of course, the Outers won't have any statistics to help their case. It's all based on hope and wishful thinking.

 

To be fair, you could say that about staying in.

 

No one will have a clue what the EU will look like in 10 years or how close we would be to it

[buctootim]

Yeah. Coz what we really need to help us decide is dodgy statistics. And the more the better.

 

You keep telling yourself that. Only tonight we had more scaremongering from Osborne.

 

I think the in campaign has been more negative, just playing on people's fear of change.

 

The more I read about the state of the EU, the cost, size and unstoppable movement towards more and more power the more convinced I am to vote out. Hopefully the more the British public learn the less afraid they will be of the alternative.

 

Of course, the Outers won't have any statistics to help their case. It's all based on hope and wishful thinking.

 

Exactly. The three replies to my post were all moaning that the 'in' campaign was negative - if they mean it highlights the almost total absence of an 'Outs' plan, or examples of precedents, or something more than hoping - then they're right. Currently all the 'ins' need to do is to point out the alternative isnt credible, there is no plan - its very very easy. The outs need to sell a vision, a viable alternative - moaning at the electorate that they aren't being brave isnt going to cut it.

[buctootim]

To be fair, you could say that about staying in.

 

No one will have a clue what the EU will look like in 10 years or how close we would be to it

 

Then we can vote out in 10 years time, if it comes to that. Its a totally different scenario to abandoning a free trade zone with robust access agreements with other major economies and going it alone.

[Pamplemousse]

http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/immigration-and-justice/norway-and-switzerland/

 

Immigration and border control are increasingly cited as the main reasons for why the UK should leave the EU. Those advocating exit often mention Norway and Switzerland as models the UK should follow outside the EU. However, this briefing shows that Switzerland and Norway have far higher levels of EU immigration than the UK as a proportion of their populations... the EU has repeatedly made it clear that free movement of people is the price that must be paid for access to the single market.

 

Therefore, even if we do leave the EU, if we want access to the single market, we will still have free movement. Leaving will make no difference to immigration from other EU countries. And as we import more from the EU than they do from from us, in terms of a trade agreement, the EU will hold all the cards.

[Sour Mash]

Of course, the Outers won't have any statistics to help their case. It's all based on hope and wishful thinking.

Net migration from the Eu = 172,000

 

Net contribution to the EU = £10.4 billion.

 

How are those stats?

[Sour Mash]

http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/immigration-and-justice/norway-and-switzerland/

 

 

 

Therefore, even if we do leave the EU, if we want access to the single market, we will still have free movement. Leaving will make no difference to immigration from other EU countries. And as we import more from the EU than they do from from us, in terms of a trade agreement, the EU will hold all the cards.

Why are we exactly the same as Switzerland and Norway. Why are there so many successful trade agreements across the world without political control and complete free movement of people?

[Pamplemousse]

Why are we exactly the same as Switzerland and Norway. Why are there so many successful trade agreements across the world without political control and complete free movement of people?

 

The EU is our biggest trading partner, and we won't be able to not trade with them. They hold all the cards, so they will make us join the free movement area, like Norway and Switzerland. Furthermore, they will probably be even harsher on us in order to dissuade other countries from leaving.

[Whitey Grandad]

Net migration from the Eu = 172,000

 

Net contribution to the EU = £10.4 billion.

 

How are those stats?

 

They are wrong

[Whitey Grandad]

Why are we exactly the same as Switzerland and Norway. Why are there so many successful trade agreements across the world without political control and complete free movement of people?

 

There's a big difference between free trade and the Single Market.

[Lord Duckhunter]

http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/immigration-and-justice/norway-and-switzerland/[/

 

"Those advocating exit often mention Norway and Switzerland as models the UK should follow outside the EU. "

 

No they don't . Since the referendum been called the only people I've heard mentioning Norway & Switzerland are the Remain people . All I've ever heard from the Leave is that we can do a better deal than them .

 

Anyway so ****ing what if we have to pay tariffs , they won't be that high as the WTO will see to that . If we're not in the single market , so what ? We're British we'll innovate and find new markets . Loads of countries are sucsessful without being in this single market , The EU isn't the world , open your eyes to the wider community of countries . As The trendy vicar on QT said last night . Democracy is more than economics and " are we better off " . If The US offered to pay all our tax receipts so that no UK citizen paid tax , but we would have to become the 51st state , we'd be better off . However ,I doubt anybody would sell our sovereignty for that . Some things aren't for sale , no matter how much better off we will be .

 

In any case , when we leave all bets are off . The EU will have to change , adapt , others might leave as well . The project will fail and fall apart , then maybe the French ,Italians and others will bring in the reforms needed to drag their economies into the 21st century

[Sour Mash]

They are wrong

 

How?

[Whitey Grandad]

How?

 

Your figure for net contribution is too high.

[Sour Mash]

The EU is our biggest trading partner, and we won't be able to not trade with them. They hold all the cards, so they will make us join the free movement area, like Norway and Switzerland. Furthermore, they will probably be even harsher on us in order to dissuade other countries from leaving.

 

So the EU will force us against our will to sign up for free movement? Nice group to be part of. What will happen if we don't sign up?

[melmacian_saint]

The Commonwealth talk is a bit misguided IMO.

 

People forget that, in 1975, this wonderful association of true Anglos that we led was in fact a massive, increasing burden for the UK, one that we had decided to fund whatever the weather post-WWII as other nations recovered and invested heavily in fostering their economic tissue. As global trade increased, maintaining Commonwealth agreements over more economically-sensible ones was destroying the competitiveness of the British economy and of key industries and massively hindering consumer spending, irrationally driving wages up (which was facilitated by the strong trade unions of then).

People also forget that we took out an IMF bailout loan in 1976 (Yeup- like those dirty Irish, or Greeks) because we were effectively going bust from keeping the whole show going. Then, there wasn't much good to say about the Commonwealth- public opinion was perhaps influenced by decolonization movements across the world, but really the most developed territories (ANZ, Canada) were effectively subsidized provinces, and the remainder was falling into political and economic turmoil. The pound was in terrible shape.

 

The Commonwealth now might sound appealing, but how much of it was to do with the commodities boom we've experienced in the 2000s? And even then, how much power will the UK actually have in these countries. We a service-based, net importer while most are natural resource, net exporters...

[Sour Mash]

Your figure for net contribution is too high.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11727741/Budget-2015-Cost-of-EU-member-to-be-3-billion-higher-than-expected.html

 

Stick up the figures to show how little we're paying.

[Sour Mash]

Your figure for net contribution is too high.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11727741/Budget-2015-Cost-of-EU-member-to-be-3-billion-higher-than-expected.html

 

Stick up the figures to show how little we're paying.

[Pamplemousse]

So the EU will force us against our will to sign up for free movement? Nice group to be part of. What will happen if we don't sign up?

 

Undemocratic? Yes. But there's no point cutting your nose off to spite your face.

[Sour Mash]

Undemocratic? Yes. But there's no point cutting your nose off to spite your face.

 

You're not answering my question.

[Pamplemousse]

You're not answering my question.

 

We could say no but then we wouldn't have access to the single market, which would hurt us economically.

 

I don't know precisely what would happen as no country has left the EU.

[Sour Mash]

We could say no but then we wouldn't have access to the single market, which would hurt us economically.

 

I don't know precisely what would happen as no country has left the EU.

 

Of course no one knows precisely, but realistically, what would you expect to happen.

[Pamplemousse]

Of course no one knows precisely, but realistically, what would you expect to happen.

 

Then the EU would impose tariffs on us.

[Wes Tender]

You have a weird idea of balance in this contradictory screed. Abbott is both "no good" for the yes/remain campaign (agreed, she's worse than useless), and yet because she's a "proper politician" she counts for more than a "non-politician". How the hell does that work?

 

Besides, the great problem for people like me (a very large number it seems, judging by the polls) who are likely to vote to stay but could be persuaded to vote no with some actual evidence that it would be workable, is that the remain camp (Abbott and Corbyn aside) have some pretty intelligent and articulate advocates. Notably Alan Johnson. And the no/leave campaign is dominated a bunch of cretins - Farage, IDS, Galloway, the BNP, etc.

 

So "balance", in terms of equal numbers, would drag in the cretins - the very people you should be hiding in a coal mine while the campaign is going on.

 

You ought to have realised when you exclude Corbyn as not being an asset to the remain camp, that there were sufficient numbers of Labour supporters willing to vote for him to be the leader of the Labour Party, regardless of how impossible you thought that would be at the time and how wrong you turned out to be. Do you therefore preclude the possibility that Farage, IDS and Galloway don't themselves have a similar appeal to a constituency of support within the parameters of their own political compasses?

 

You have only named one example of somebody you consider to be an intelligent and articulate advocate for the remain case, against two that you think ought to be hidden from public view. And he is one who has hardly dominated the campaign to remain. As I already observed, Labour don't wish to upset the peace of Church mice and he is supposed to be leading their campaign.

 

I don't believe that you could be persuaded to vote to leave anyway, because there is no more concrete evidence that leaving the EU would be workable than there is evidence to suggest that the EU can be cured of all of its inherent problems that need reform. It ought to be obvious to most sensible people that the only evidence of our leaving being workable can only come about through us actually leaving. Quite a few people like me (judging by the polls) seem ready to take the chance and make the break.

[Wes Tender]

Then the EU would impose tariffs on us.

 

And naturally we would counter by imposing tariffs on them. Who do you think that would benefit?

[Pamplemousse]

And naturally we would counter by imposing tariffs on them. Who do you think that would benefit?

 

We import more from them then they import from us. They hold all the cards when it comes to trade.

[Gingeletiss]

We import more from them then they import from us. They hold all the cards when it comes to trade.

 

Not really, many of the big European company's that we 'import' from, will not like us leaving, so there will be immense pressure on Europe NOT to impose said tariffs, as we would just look elsewhere.

[buctootim]

Not really, many of the big European company's that we 'import' from, will not like us leaving, so there will be immense pressure on Europe NOT to impose said tariffs, as we would just look elsewhere.

 

Its simplistic to say that because total imports and total exports are roughly similar the threat of tit for tat tariffs would even things out. For example for most EU car producers the UK is an important but minority market - Peugeot (4.5%) or VW (5%) aren't going to relocate production to the UK if British tariffs are introduced on a small part their sales. By contrast 80% of the cars built in the UK go for export including 49% to the EU - if that proportion are subject to tariffs there will be a queue out of the door to relocate elsewhere.

http://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/SMMT-KPMG-EU-Report.pdf

Edited 27 February, 2016 by buctootim

[Pamplemousse]

Not really, many of the big European company's that we 'import' from, will not like us leaving, so there will be immense pressure on Europe NOT to impose said tariffs, as we would just look elsewhere.

 

There will also be immense pressure by the EU to impose huge tariffs, in order to dissuade other countries from leaving the EU.

 

In all honesty, nobody knows what the EU would do in such a situation, as it has never happened, but I don't want to give them an excuse to do so by us leaving. There's no point in us risking our economy, the safe and sensible option is to stay.

[hutch]

Only decades of following the political debate, but yeah, whatever.

 

How many Balkan states were EU members during those decades that you remember so fondly?

 

And on a similar vein "Yugoslavia" will have something like 10 times the number of votes on the European Council than Britain in few years.

 

The European Council is the EU institution that defines the general political direction and priorities of the European Union

 

Democracy, eh? If you want REAL democracy then go and slaughter your neighbours and their women and children for a few generations.

[Wade Garrett]

I liked the vicar on QT. What he said about not selling our democracy was spot on.

[Wade Garrett]

Its simplistic to say that because total imports and total exports are roughly similar the threat of tit for tat tariffs would even things out. For example for most EU car producers the UK is an important but minority market - Peugeot (4.5%) or VW (5%) aren't going to relocate production to the UK if British tariffs are introduced on a small part their sales. By contrast 80% of the cars built in the UK go for export including 49% to the EU - if that proportion are subject to tariffs there will be a queue out of the door to relocate elsewhere.

http://www.smmt.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/SMMT-KPMG-EU-Report.pdf

 

That must be why Nissan and Honda said they wouldn't leave the UK if we voted out.

[Sour Mash]

We import more from them then they import from us. They hold all the cards when it comes to trade.

 

That doesn't make sense. Why would they hold all the cards?

[Sour Mash]

There will also be immense pressure by the EU to impose huge tariffs, in order to dissuade other countries from leaving the EU.

 

In all honesty, nobody knows what the EU would do in such a situation, as it has never happened, but I don't want to give them an excuse to do so by us leaving. There's no point in us risking our economy, the safe and sensible option is to stay.

In reality they would take a practical approach, we would continue to trade successfully with Europe as we have for hundreds of years, as we've somehow miraculously been able to trade successfully with the rest of the world without political union and armageddon will be avoided.

 

Our Economic stability isn't reliant on political union with Europe.

[Batman]

Just watched QT

Abbott is absolutely horrendous

 

The Tory woman was not much better

[Whitey Grandad]

How many Balkan states were EU members during those decades that you remember so fondly?

 

And on a similar vein "Yugoslavia" will have something like 10 times the number of votes on the European Council than Britain in few years.

 

 

 

Democracy, eh? If you want REAL democracy then go and slaughter your neighbours and their women and children for a few generations.

 

Turkey is not a Balkan state, nothing like it???

[Whitey Grandad]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11727741/Budget-2015-Cost-of-EU-member-to-be-3-billion-higher-than-expected.html

 

Stick up the figures to show how little we're paying.

 

We are paying, we have paid, or we will pay? There is more than one figure in that article. I see that you chose the highest.

 

Anyway, we were talking about what the statistics would be if we were to leave. This was my point. We know what we've got now but we have absolutely no idea what the figures would be if we left.

[Sour Mash]

We are paying, we have paid, or we will pay? There is more than one figure in that article. I see that you chose the highest.

 

Anyway, we were talking about what the statistics would be if we were to leave. This was my point. We know what we've got now but we have absolutely no idea what the figures would be if we left.

 

Ah, so you didn't want those particular stats on why we should leave

 

How about this one; £0 = our net contribution to the EU when we leave.

[hutch]

Turkey is not a Balkan state, nothing like it???

 

Who mentioned Turkey. I'm referring to Serbia. And Croatia. And Macedonia. And Bosnia. Just off the top of my head.

[Wes Tender]

We import more from them then they import from us. They hold all the cards when it comes to trade.

 

It is simplistic to say that because we import more from them that they hold all the cards.

 

You haven't been listening to the counter arguments that if they export more to us then they have more to lose by imposing tariffs, because when we reciprocate, their products will be more expensive to buy here. The EU will lose lots of trade with one of their most important markets and we will gain the opportunity to trade with a hugely larger market, the rest of the World. But go on believing that the EU holds all the cards if it comforts you.

 

And the other point that needs to be made again against your position, is that many of the biggest and therefore most influential corporations in Europe, are in the most powerful and influential Countries of the EU. So if you think that VW, Daimler, BMW, Siemens, Bosch, Phillips, Renault, Peugeot, Citroen, Exor, BASF, Saint-Gobain, Bayer, Anheuser-Busch etc won't be applying pressure on the Governments of Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands not to impose tariffs on their products, then you are being a bit naive.

[Lord Duckhunter]

Just watched QT

Abbott is absolutely horrendous

 

The Tory woman was not much better

 

The young girl who gave it to Truss, is at school with my daughter

[Wes Tender]

Who mentioned Turkey. I'm referring to Serbia. And Croatia. And Macedonia. And Bosnia. Just off the top of my head.

 

Yes, all of those countries who vote for each other in the Eurovision Song contest.

 

Another European institution badly in need of reform

[TwoPints]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11727741/Budget-2015-Cost-of-EU-member-to-be-3-billion-higher-than-expected.html

 

Stick up the figures to show how little we're paying.

Well who'd have thought. The man that accuses people of using made up figures for propoganda, using made up figures for propoganda,

 

Here's some more numbers from the CBI, not from a newspaper:

 

"A CBI literature review suggests that the net benefit of EU membership to the UK could be in the region of 4-5% of GDP or £62bn-£78bn a year – roughly the economies of the North East and Northern Ireland taken together."

 

So, while leaving the EU would mean our net contribution would be zero. We'd lose the benefit of circa £62bn a year - the CBI's number, not mine. Isn't that biting your nose off to spite your face?

Edited 27 February, 2016 by TwoPints

[Batman]

The young girl who gave it to Truss, is at school with my daughter

 

the two MPs could not respond to her.

Also, the bloke who asked a perfectly legitimate question of where will everyone (immigrants) live and how will the infrastructure of the country support them with the current levels of of net migration we have (bigger than the size of southampton every 12 months...

 

 

we met with all but the 'racist' card from abbott....she is utterly dreadful