Green shoots?

[Jonnyboy]

http://news.sky.com/story/1112821/jobs-market-soaring-in-uk-report-says

 

ie bankers and financial workers are doing alright (as usual)

[TopGun]

I have increased my own investment in cyclical equities of late as I think we may be through the worst of it.

[SuperMikey]

When can we expect the figures for 2013 Q2 to be released? Sometime this month?

 

Growth hasn't exactly been encouraging over the last 12 months, we had a very strong summer what with the Olympics and Jubilee etc but I can't help but feel that the planned "stimulus package" (in heavily inverted commas) won't help too much in the short term. Looking forward to things picking up again though - might be able to find a decent job if they do!

[buctootim]

http://news.sky.com/story/1112821/jobs-market-soaring-in-uk-report-says

 

I think we are through the worst of it. Having said that the Sky piece is misleading. Pay rising and permanent placements being the highest for two years means almost nothing. So things are not as good as they were two years ago, when they were really really dire. Wow.

Edited 9 July, 2013 by buctootim

[tony13579]

Recruitment agencies are placing more permanent staff....

Is that to replace all the temporary workers from overseas that have decided to leave this basket case country?

Are the applicants people who have been intimidated by ATOS, ESA and PIP assessments? Not to mention bedroom tax....

Then there are people who have hoped to retire but find their 300k retirement pot only buys 10k per year.

Oh, and that ever moving state pension date.... 60/65 is now 66/67 possibly with or without winter fuel payments and bus pass

 

I still can't understand the raid on co-op bank bonds. co-op bank was downgraded by six points over the takeover of Britannia FOUR YEARS EARLIER. tax payers are safe, just steal from BOND investors (the word BOND has been ripped up under Cameron?) There has to be some wrong doing there! LloydsTSB were nearly sunk by the (labour) government twisting their arm to take over another bank. Then there is the forced split of Lloyds TSB. Customers can't choose which bank they are moving to unless they want new sort codes, account numbers.

 

The stock market rocketed to near 7000 without justification and has now dropped nearer to 6000.

 

I still don't see safe, stable investments. I can't plan my future, I still feel like I'm navigation between the rocks, volcanoes and icebergs.

[Millbrook Saint]

Not to mention bedroom tax....

 

Sorry to take off subject but people who say this really get my goat, it is not a bedroom tax.

 

1. If I was unemployed on benefits as a single guy and tried to rent a 3 bed house payed for by housing benefit I'd be told I didn't need 3 beds find a 1 bed house/flat.

2. If you live in a council house, you do not have your rent increased if you have an empty bedroom.

3. If you live in a council house, claim housing benefit and have empty bedrooms you will lose some of that housing benefit to encourage you to vacate the property and let a family who needs it have it, NOT A TAX

4. A council house is a house provided to you by the state to help fulfill your needs as a person/family, once your children have moved out the needs have been fulfilled for a large house so you can be rehoused to something smaller, if you don't want to be rehoused then I suggest you get a job and pay the rent yourself. See 2

5. This loss in benefits is only applied to people of a working age, so no problem for oaps.

 

This all seems perfectly reasonable to me, can someone tell me how this is a tax?

[Ex Lion Tamer]

Sorry to take off subject but people who say this really get my goat, it is not a bedroom tax.

 

1. If I was unemployed on benefits as a single guy and tried to rent a 3 bed house payed for by housing benefit I'd be told I didn't need 3 beds find a 1 bed house/flat.

2. If you live in a council house, you do not have your rent increased if you have an empty bedroom.

3. If you live in a council house, claim housing benefit and have empty bedrooms you will lose some of that housing benefit to encourage you to vacate the property and let a family who needs it have it, NOT A TAX

4. A council house is a house provided to you by the state to help fulfill your needs as a person/family, once your children have moved out the needs have been fulfilled for a large house so you can be rehoused to something smaller, if you don't want to be rehoused then I suggest you get a job and pay the rent yourself. See 2

5. This loss in benefits is only applied to people of a working age, so no problem for oaps.

 

This all seems perfectly reasonable to me, can someone tell me how this is a tax?

 

Tax may not be quite the correct term but the point is that there is a shortage of 1-bedroom properties, so people are finding themselves having to pay more but unable to move.

 

http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2013/mar/08/bedroom-tax-shortage-small-homes

 

It also doesn't account for people with special needs who may require the extra space for equipment etc.

Edited 9 July, 2013 by Ex Lion Tamer

[tony13579]

Re: bedroom tax I agree . It is not a tax. I totally agree that people who have severe disabilities and who are (by the way) eligible for a 1 band council tax reduction should be exempt from this spare bedroom penalty.

 

To put this back on thread, if we were seeing true green shoots, we would not be kicking the poor and disabled in this way.

[trousers]

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/3586

[h=1]42% more first-time buyers in May than a year ago[/h]

[buctootim]

http://www.cml.org.uk/cml/media/press/3586

 

Thats a sign of saddling another generation with huge debts and creating a bubble in the property market using taxpayers money, not a sign of recovery.

[trousers]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23340165

 

UK unemployment fell by 57,000 to 2.51 million in the three months to May, the Office for National Statistics says.

The ONS also said that the number of people claiming Jobseeker's Allowance in June fell by 21,200 to 1.48 million. This fall was the fastest rate in three years.

[trousers]

[buctootim]

So not as high as four years ago then? right before the double dip

[Lord Duckhunter]

So not as high as four years ago then? right before the double dip

 

What double dip?

[buctootim]

What double dip?

 

This one. I agree the period didnt reach the technical definition of a double dip recession (two successive quarters of decline as opposed to one quarter of contraction and one flat), but that doesn't there wasnt a double dip.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/06/27/uk-britain-economy-idUKBRE95Q0BB20130627

[Lord Duckhunter]

Oh, so there wasn't a double dip recession, but because of your political leanings we have to accept there was one. I wish I knew how to do that face palm thingy.

[Whitey Grandad]

This one. I agree the period didnt reach the technical definition of a double dip recession (two successive quarters of decline as opposed to one quarter of contraction and one flat), but that doesn't there wasnt a double dip.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/06/27/uk-britain-economy-idUKBRE95Q0BB20130627

 

I don't quite follow that logic. Whatever, arguing over a technical difference is not really significant. I think we can all agree that the economy is bumping along at a an uninspiring level.

[bridge too far]

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/07/five-things-george-osborne-doesnt-want-you-know-about-economy

[buctootim]

I don't quite follow that logic. Whatever, arguing over a technical difference is not really significant. I think we can all agree that the economy is bumping along at a an uninspiring level.

 

A dip followed by a flat quarter is still a dip - even if it doesn't technically qualify as a recession. However agree, we are drifting sideways atm

[Johnny Bognor]

Good news:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23571579

[trousers]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/08/06/uk-britain-economy-manufacturing-idUKBRE97509F20130806

 

From manufacturing to car sales, Britain bounces back

British manufacturing grew much more strongly than expected in June, suggesting the country's recovery is broadening

[Johnny Bognor]

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/08/06/uk-britain-economy-manufacturing-idUKBRE97509F20130806

 

All 13 components of the manufacturing index showed growth for the first time since June 1992, the Office for National Statistics said.

[bridge too far]

"Since David Cameron became Prime Minister in 2010, the average wage has fallen in real terms every single month apart from April this year. The reason that average wages increased slightly in April was not that wages actually increased for the majority, but because the figures were skewed by the fact that thousands of high earners deferred their 2012 bonuses until then so that they could take advantage of the Tory income tax cut for the super rich"

 

Not my words but in tune with my thoughts.

[Johnny Bognor]

"Since David Cameron became Prime Minister in 2010, the average wage has fallen in real terms every single month apart from April this year. The reason that average wages increased slightly in April was not that wages actually increased for the majority, but because the figures were skewed by the fact that thousands of high earners deferred their 2012 bonuses until then so that they could take advantage of the Tory income tax cut for the super rich"

 

Not my words but in tune with my thoughts.

 

Hmm. Wages not rising whilst cost of living does shocker amidst the worst economic crisis since WW2.

 

Don't think you can blame him for that, just as you won't praise him when these green shoots result in rising wages during economic growth?

[trousers]

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-08-09/british-exports-hit-record-hight-of-78-billion/

 

Britain exported a record £78.4 billion worth of goods between April and June thanks to surging demand from countries outside Europe.The all-time high for the second quarter came after a record-breaking performance in June, with exports of £26.9bn, up by £1.3bn from May, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The official figures add to tentatively mounting cheer over the recovery, after a number of upbeat reports from key sectors and boost hopes of rebalancing the economy away from imports and towards exports.

[bridge too far]

Hmm. Wages not rising whilst cost of living does shocker amidst the worst economic crisis since WW2.

 

Don't think you can blame him for that, just as you won't praise him when these green shoots result in rising wages during economic growth?

 

I won't hold my breath!

[Lord Duckhunter]

Unskilled wages won't rise. Why on earth would they when there will be a influx of eastern Europeans prepared to do dirty unskilled work for more money than they can earn at home?

[buctootim]

Decline in wages worse in UK than most of Europe, including Spain and Cyprus.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23655605

[CB Saint]

Which might be why we have relatively lower unemployment.

[bridge too far]

Which might be why we have relatively lower unemployment.

 

Does that 'relatively lower' unemployment rate include people on zero hours contracts I wonder?

[buctootim]

Which might be why we have relatively lower unemployment.

 

I think it is, and also linked to the decline in per employee productivity.

[Johnny Bognor]

It is why we've had lower unemployment. Many small businesses have frozen pay, so in effect wages have fallen. But those employees would rather keep their jobs, at the same rate and tighten their belts, than lose their jobs and go on to benefits. Small business employers would rather retain trained staff, than let them go, so in the short term it is no bad thing. It puts us in a better position for a recovery.

 

To compare the UK to Spain, where they have unemployment in excess of 25% is bordering on ridiculous. Would you swap for Spain right now? I don't think anyone in their right mind would.

[trousers]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/aug/12/guardian-icm-poll-tories-economic-confidence

 

Guardian/ICM poll: public confidence in Tories' economic competence surges

[saintfully]

French economy grew by 0.5% in second quarter. UK economy grew by 0.6%.

 

Compare and contrast.

[Johnny Bognor]

Eurozone grew by 0.3%, France by 0.5% and Germany by 0.7%

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23692102

 

So we've done OK.

 

Spain (the country upheld by the lefties to bang on about falling living standards) contracted 0.1%.

[badgerx16]

It is why we've had lower unemployment. Many small businesses have frozen pay, so in effect wages have fallen. But those employees would rather keep their jobs, at the same rate and tighten their belts, than lose their jobs and go on to benefits.

 

Not just small businesses, large parts of the public sector, especially Local Government, have done the same.

[Johnny Bognor]

Not just small businesses, large parts of the public sector, especially Local Government, have done the same.

 

True, but the private sector is taking twice the fall, but as we're all in this together, I grant you that public sector workers are feeling the squeeze, if only to a lesser extent.

 

So the choice boils down to falling living standards, but keeping jobs rising living standards (for those in work), but losing jobs.

 

I think the first option is the better one until things recover. It's not a matter of left or right, but a matter of common sense.

[trousers]

@BBCBreaking: UK retail sales rose by 1.1% in July, up 3% year-on-year

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Of course it's expedient for employers to impose a effective annual wage cut on their employees and then tell them to 'take it or leave it' because someone else will be happy to do the job instead it if they dare object. Speaking from personal experience, my employer stared imposing exactly this policy on their staff years before the great '2008/9 credit crunch' even started. I have just received 3 (small) pay rises in 12 years at my current workplace - and I had to kick up a fuss to get even that.

 

The trouble is it's not the middle and upper classes but rather those at the bottom of society who will bare the brunt of this pain. If you are lucky enough to be healthy, young, and possess a set of skills the job market demands then you could probably find another job with relative ease. The better off earning £30/40/50k a year can frankly take no pay rise for a year or two without feeling much real financial pain from the experience. If you are on half that amount however - or less - then real suffering will ensue.

 

With a precedent of static/declining wages now set there is no guarantee that 'normal service' will be resumed once the recovery properly gathers pace. As the gap between the rice and poor widens even further the consequences of the stress this unwelcome 'new deal' will impose on society will one day be felt - it's unlikely to be a pretty sight.

[Johnny Bognor]

I agree to some extent CEC, but personal allowances have offset some of the difference between pay freezes and inflation. Personal tax allowances were £5,225 in 2008/2009 and they are now £9,440. Perhaps the government could do more, but this would probably mean cuts elsewhere.

 

Anyway, for many businesses, it is not a case of "take it or leave it" because they are evil nasty employers. For many it is a simple case of trying to survive.

[trousers]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23807182

 

Economic growth in the UK during the second quarter of the year has been revised up to 0.7% by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

[melmacian_saint]

Ahh Iceland, that miracle story of a country with the population of Southampton. Any comparison is impossible, and it's much easier to assist, say, a full SMS of affected customers at the expense of sending loads of international customers to hell (including some of our public institutions), something this country just could not do. In fact, given our joint-sovereign status and the way other EU countries dealt with it, and also our role in the world banking industry I think our solution was not on the wrong. Plus our banks are good enough to be sold at a profit, I would like to think.

[trousers]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23893789

 

The British Chambers of Commerce has sharply upped its 2013 growth forecast, saying the economy is gaining momentum.

The business lobby group now expects 1.3% growth this year, up from 0.9%. Its forecasts for the next two years were upped to 2.2% and 2.5%.

[bridge too far]

This man's opinion and article may well dampen down enthusiasm if what he suggests is true

 

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/aug/30/financial-crisis-looms-addiction-cash-injection

[trousers]

http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/89b62348c597490698dae25b0324e7a7

 

Output and new orders rise at fastest rates since 1994

 

Rob Dobson, Senior Economist at survey compilers Markit: “The UK’s factories are booming again. Orders and output are growing at the fastest rates for almost twenty years,

[Colinjb]

http://www.markiteconomics.com/Survey/PressRelease.mvc/89b62348c597490698dae25b0324e7a7

 

That ties in with the performance of my employer. We are currently growing at our fastest rate since prior to the recession kicking in back in 2008.

[trousers]

http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23956192

 

The UK service sector grew at its fastest pace in six years in August, according to the latest survey by Markit and the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS).

 

The business activity index registered 60.5 in August, the highest reading in more than six-and-a-half years.

 

"The UK service sector turned in another stellar performance in August, building on the growth momentum seen during July," said Paul Smith, senior economist at research firm Markit.

[trousers]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23984159

 

UK factories increased production in July, up 0.2% from the previous month, according the Office for National Statistics.It is the latest piece of evidence showing that the UK economic recovery is gathering momentum.

On Wednesday, a report showed that activity in the service sector hit a six-year high.

Many economists now think the Bank of England will have to start scaling back efforts to boost the economy.

[andysstuff]

Britain's trade deficit more than doubled in July, and industrial production failed to grow as expected.

 

 

The disappointing UK trade and industrial production data this morning have prompted experts to warn that economic conditions in Britain, and beyond, may not be as rosy as hoped

 

From The Grauniad

[trousers]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/georgeosborne/10295060/Osborne-Weve-saved-the-economy-and-proved-Labour-wrong.html

 

The economy is “turning the corner”, George Osborne will declare later as he claims a “decisive” victory over Labour on public spending policy.The Chancellor will issue a message of optimism in a speech that marks a shift in Coalition rhetoric on the economy.

Britain is experiencing the fastest growth since the 1990s, he will say, while arguing that criticism of the Coalition’s austerity programme by Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, has been proven entirely wrong.

Mr Osborne’s speech follows a series of positive economic data and upbeat predictions of growth from independent forecasters.