Saints boy in Leeds Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 IMO We will need as many as 40 points to be safe this season, so tight down at the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Garrett Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 It's certainly gone up! About 2 months ago you'd have probably said that 36/7 was enough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Katalinic Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 (edited) On the basis that Reading and QPR are too far behind us the crux of it for me is how many points Wigan get. Assuming we get to 40 points then Wigan will need 11 points from their remaining 8 games to overtake us - looking at their fixtures I just can't see they will do that. Aside of that I think we will get more than 40 anyway! Edited 31 March, 2013 by Katalinic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saints_is_the_south Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 Wigan will stay up on 37. Sunderland down on 36. IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 Villa beating Liverpool as well. It is a bit of a freak season, has anyone gone down with 40+ points before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Kraken Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 Villa winning today does us few favours. Looking pretty good too; apparently if they win this that would 3 on the spin for them. Sunderland seem to have acted to prevent their freefall, and looking at their run in they have a number of very winnable games. I can still see the battle for 17th and above going right down to the wire, anyone from us down is still very much in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 Think West Ham went down with 40 in our cup final season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rasiak-9- Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17497445 This is what the table looked like with 30/31 games gone last season. As you can see you could be in 16th place with 29 points. It ended up that 37 points was needed to stay up, so certainly implies you'll need more than that to do so this year. I know Blackpool managed to go down with 39 recently and if you look here: http://stats.football365.com/2003/ENG/PR/overview.html ...you'll see that in 02/03 West Ham went down with as many as 42! (and would have still been relegated on GD with 44!!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 Good thing is Wigan only have one home game in the next 5, and that is against Spurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
obelisk Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 It has happened. 1997 - Sunderland 40 1998 - Bolton 40 2003 - West Ham 42 A couple of wins and a sprinkling of draws will do the job for Saints quite easily I reckon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 Villa winning today does us few favours. Looking pretty good too; apparently if they win this that would 3 on the spin for them. Sunderland seem to have acted to prevent their freefall, and looking at their run in they have a number of very winnable games. I can still see the battle for 17th and above going right down to the wire, anyone from us down is still very much in it. I don't think Sunderland's fixtures are all that great personally. Stoke and Saints at home are probably their most realistic wins in that lot but the way they have been playing you wouldn't put money on it. They have a trip to Chelsea next then a local derby at SJP. Everton at home will be tricky as will the trip to Villa Park. I'd take our fixtures over theirs any day of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Garrett Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 Anyone know that website where it gives you the %s of who will finish where ?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saints_is_the_south Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 I don't think Sunderland's fixtures are all that great personally. Stoke and Saints at home are probably their most realistic wins in that lot but the way they have been playing you wouldn't put money on it. They have a trip to Chelsea next then a local derby at SJP. Everton at home will be tricky as will the trip to Villa Park. I'd take our fixtures over theirs any day of the week. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Kraken Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 I don't think Sunderland's fixtures are all that great personally. Stoke and Saints at home are probably their most realistic wins in that lot but the way they have been playing you wouldn't put money on it. They have a trip to Chelsea next then a local derby at SJP. Everton at home will be tricky as will the trip to Villa Park. I'd take our fixtures over theirs any day of the week. I don't think there's much in the two fixture lists; they have Chelsea away next, which I don't think they'll get anything from. But the Newcastle derby game can always go one way or the other whatever the form of the two sides, they'll view home games against us and Stoke as must wins, and an away trip to Villa provides a potential for an away win. Tottenham away on final day could also depend on what Spurs need from that game; if they've qualified for the CL spots already then anything could happen. I'd much prefer to be in our situation than their's, of course. And with our side. Losing Fletcher for the rest of the season could be the real blow for them. In any case, I think anyone from us down is right in the mix so I wouldn't want to solely pick out Sunderland as out threat, it could be any of them at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saints boy in Leeds Posted 31 March, 2013 Author Share Posted 31 March, 2013 We have one of the best run ins IMO, you'd expect us to at least get a draw at Reading to further our cause but 3 points should mean we would only need a couple or 3 draws to be ok, fingers crossed for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 We have got a great run in. spurs away is the only real tough one. The home games against West Ham, West Brom and Stoke should give us the points we need. Trips to Reading, Swansea and Sunderland are all winnable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cumbria Saint Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 Anyone know that website where it gives you the %s of who will finish where ?! This? If I read it right then 13th is most likely for Saints. Not far from my pre season prediction of 14th. http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Premier.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Garrett Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 Looks like we've got to lose atleast 4 games for us to have a chance of going down. Win 2 games and we're pretty much safe regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shirleysfc Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 Two wins and I think we'll be safe. We've got some fairly friendly fixtures coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 IMO We will need as many as 40 points to be safe this season, so tight down at the bottom. nope Villa won't get 41 points from where they are now. 38 will do easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 It's a pretty mental league table at the moment. Arguably there are only three teams with nothing to play for as we enter April - West Brom, Swansea and, bizarrely, Man Utd. Maybe Man city as well - who seem near certain of top 4, but have no chance of winning the title. I still don't think it will require as many as 40 points to stay up. If you treat QPR and Reading as doomed, surely there's a good chance that at least one of the other teams towards the bottom will go on a pretty horrible run - something like W 1 D 2 L 4, which would mean somewhere between 35 and 39 points will be enough to just stay up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Kraken Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 (edited) nope Villa won't get 41 points from where they are now. 38 will do easily. They have Man United and Chelsea to play, but their 5 other games are all against sides in the bottom 8. They really should have got something out of today's game. Even if I were having a free bet for who will go down in 18th, I wouldn't have a clue who to pick. Originally didn't think Wigan would make it, but I thought that a couple of weeks ago and they just keep on winning. Edited 31 March, 2013 by The Kraken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 Being fairly generous to our rivals, I would predict: Villa Beat Sunderland and Fulham at home Draw at Wigan, Norwich and Stoke Lose vs Man Utd and Chelsea 39 points. Wigan Beat Swansea and QPR Draw with WBA, West Ham, Villa, Spuds Lose to Man City and Arsenal 40 points Sunderland Beat Saints and Stoke Draw with Everton and Newcastle Lose against Spurs, Villa and Chelsea 39 points All just educated guess work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Le God Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 17th Wigan 31 points - 8 games to play ....................................... 18th Aston Villa 30 points - 7 games to play Last game of the season sees Wigan vs Villa, so points will be lost somewhere from that game. It won't need 40 points to stay up this season, even if Villa and Wigan go on amazing runs all the other sides below 12th place Saints won't as they will be taking points off each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 It's a pretty mental league table at the moment. Arguably there are only three teams with nothing to play for as we enter April - West Brom, Swansea and, bizarrely, Man Utd. Maybe Man city as well - who seem near certain of top 4, but have no chance of winning the title. I still don't think it will require as many as 40 points to stay up. If you treat QPR and Reading as doomed, surely there's a good chance that at least one of the other teams towards the bottom will go on a pretty horrible run - something like W 1 D 2 L 4, which would mean somewhere between 35 and 39 points will be enough to just stay up. This With 8 teams in the mix from 11th to 18th at least one of them will only gain 4 points or less meaning 38 should do it with our goal difference! I will be surprised if all 8 end up on more than 40 points (given there are many fixtures between the two it is probably already highly unlikely if not yet impossible) This is why the more teams in the mix the better! also our GD is worth a point against at least 4 of them if not more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy Diamond Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 I think we will finish on 42 points, and agree that 40 will be needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjii Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 No chance 40 will be needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saints boy in Leeds Posted 31 March, 2013 Author Share Posted 31 March, 2013 nope Villa won't get 41 points from where they are now. 38 will do easily. I hope your right mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 Reckon 37 will have good chance of putting us above all of Wigan, Sunderland and Villa. Maybe one of them will hit that figure but doubt all three, can see one of those at least being below 35. Reckon one win could be plenty, not just to stay up but to be safe before last weekend. Noticed that since Arry arrived QPR haven't gained points on any of teams they needed to for safety, infact couple, including us, dropped considerably further away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 Slightly off topic, but broadly on the same theme, I was trying to work out how it WON'T go the last game of the season. Because Wigan and Villa play each other on the final day, if we go into the 38th game level with one of those teams and a single point ahead of the other, we are mathematically safe (assuming there isn't some utterly mental change to goal difference). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 Reckon 37 will have good chance of putting us above all of Wigan, Sunderland and Villa. Maybe one of them will hit that figure but doubt all three, can see one of those at least being below 35. Reckon one win could be plenty, not just to stay up but to be safe before last weekend. Noticed that since Arry arrived QPR haven't gained points on any of teams they needed to for safety, infact couple, including us, dropped considerably further away. If that's right - and it maybe - we are safe already. (making certain, very reasonable assumptions about goal difference) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgeweahscousin Posted 31 March, 2013 Share Posted 31 March, 2013 I am sure 37 will be enough. But I think we will get 40 - 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now