General Election 2015

[Batman]

Considering that the tory plan was to let Ed look a muppet and Cameron to look like a natural leader I think they may well have royally f**ked up.

 

I suspect little will change

[CB Saint]

interesting that three of the debaters today have not sat in the commons before.

 

it really is an eclectic election this time

[saintbletch]

Pretty creepy closing statement from Milliband there!

 

When you see the likes of Sturgeon and the Welsh One it does make Labour look pretty useless. I mean, seriously, what on earth is the point of the modern Labour party? What does it stand for?

 

Yep, that's because they were defending principles they truly believed in. Milliband was saying what his party has calculated will get him elected/form a coalition.

 

Depressing.

[JackFrost]

Miliband doing his best internet warrior impression there - taking lessons from a few on here.

 

Did he try and act tough again?

 

Pretty creepy closing statement from Milliband there!

 

When you see the likes of Sturgeon and the Welsh One it does make Labour look pretty useless. I mean, seriously, what on earth is the point of the modern Labour party? What does it stand for?

 

Exactly.

 

The modern Labour Party sums up everything that is wrong with British politics. It is a directionless, elitist clusterf**k so saturated with self-serving individuals it can barely come up with one policy that isn't based around empty class war gimmickry. All to fool the traditional Labour voter that they still somehow represent the working class in some way.

 

Now all the parties contain elements of the above in some respects (the self-serving bit especially) but there was a time when I respected the Labour Party even if I've never agreed with what they stand for. The problem now is that they don't even stand for anything or have any definition whatsoever. Nothing beyond empty Robin Hood style rhetoric that won't even work in the real world. (See them proposing to freeze energy prices when they were at their highest, all to er protect the poorest in society)

 

Their leader is someone who politicked his way in to the top job off his family name, cosied up to the unions to get elected and then set about distancing himself from the unions in his victory speech. Sums up the party to a tee.

 

Blair & Brown left the Labour Party in political limbo. (Brown scrapping the 10p tax band was Thatcherism at it's finest) and Labour have never recovered. This is why they are unelectable.

[CB Fry]

Did he try and act tough again? [emoji38]

 

 

 

Exactly.

 

The modern Labour Party sums up everything that is wrong with British politics. It is a directionless, elitist clusterf**k so saturated with self-serving individuals it can barely come up with one policy that isn't based around empty class war gimmickry. All to fool the traditional Labour voter that they still somehow represent the working class in some way.

 

Now all the parties contain elements of the above in some respects (the self-serving bit especially) but there was a time when I respected the Labour Party even if I've never agreed with what they stand for. The problem now is that they don't even stand for anything or have any definition whatsoever. Nothing beyond empty Robin Hood style rhetoric that won't even work in the real world. (See them proposing to freeze energy prices when they were at their highest, all to er protect the poorest in society)

 

Their leader is someone who politicked his way in to the top job off his family name, cosied up to the unions to get elected and then set about distancing himself from the unions in his victory speech. Sums up the party to a tee.

 

Blair & Brown left the Labour Party in political limbo. (Brown scrapping the 10p tax band was Thatcherism at it's finest) and Labour have never recovered. This is why they are unelectable.

They did bring in the 10p rate in the first place. Getting rid of it was strange, though.

[badgerx16]

This is why they are unelectable.

 

According to the polls, none of the parties are electable, insofar as forming a Government.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

Considering that the tory plan was to let Ed look a muppet and Cameron to look like a natural leader I think they may well have royally f**ked up.

 

Yep. Did not go well for the Tories.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

According to the polls, none of the parties are electable, insofar as forming a Government.

 

For me it's a real shame you can't vote for 'none of the above'.

[badgerx16]

For me it's a real shame you can't vote for 'none of the above'.

 

In theory you could draw a box at the bottom of the ballot paper and label it as such, , but that would mean 'spoiling' your ballot paper and I would never suggest or condone such an act.

[View From The Top]

For me it's a real shame you can't vote for 'none of the above'.

 

It should be an option on the ballot.

[Johnny Bognor]

You are aware labour inherited a debt of 42% of the GDP in 1997 right?

 

Please stop promoting politically-motivated myths.

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ramesh-patel/growth-cameron-austerity_b_2007552.html

 

In other words, please stop banging on about how the tories always have to clean up after labour because the IMF have disproved this time and time again, it's politically motivated nonsense....I wasn't aware saints had so many blue-noses in their midst.

 

Interesting article but it does omit some very obvious truths.

 

In 1997, labour inherited an economy on the up. There was a small deficit, but labour stuck to Tory spending plans for the first two years, after which the deficit was all but eliminated. There were a few years of surplus and the argument to invest in health schools etc was a strong one.

 

But this article doesn't take account of off balance sheet borrowing which was substantial. Yes the global financial crisis was not all labours doing, but there was plenty that could have been done to minimise the effects. Consumer debt at the end of his tenure was as bad as national debt, something that brown actively encouraged with his declaration of no more boom and bust. The consumer debt bubble was only ever going to cause a bust.... And it did. So I am afraid that whilst there are interesting points in that article, it is by no means the whole picture and the prudent one, won't be remembered as prudent in the history books.

 

As as for your last comment, that is what really irks me about politically active lefties. The disparaging, sneering, looking down their nose attitude shows the exact traits of what you would expect from a text book Tory. Or someone of a right wing persuasion. You could go as far as saying that class prejudice is not to far away from other irrational prejudices based on gender, sexuality or even race.

 

The difference is that lefties try to mask this irrational prejudice, with the caring sharing ********. It is just ******** really. It is a case of caring and sharing for your own and **** everyone else. Not too different from your average Tory really. Just a lot more hypocritical.

 

As it happens, my politics are fairly central and neither of the big political parties fully represent my views. I prefer to take a common sense approach to things, which is something no major party can seem to do. But if I spot a hypocrite, I will call them out on it.

Edited 16 April, 2015 by Johnny Bognor

[Hockey_saint]

Interesting article but it does omit some very obvious truths.

 

In 1997, labour inherited an economy on the up. There was a small deficit, but labour stuck to Tory spending plans for the first two years, after which the deficit was all but eliminated. There were a few years of surplus and the argument to invest in health schools etc was a strong one.

 

But this article doesn't take account of off balance sheet borrowing which was substantial. Yes the global financial crisis was not all labours doing, but there was plenty that could have been done to minimise the effects. Consumer debt at the end of his tenure was as bad as national debt, something that brown actively encouraged with his declaration of no more boom and bust. The consumer debt bubble was only ever going to cause a bust.... And it did. So I am afraid that whilst there are interesting points in that article, it is by no means the whole picture and the prudent one, won't be remembered as prudent in the history books.

 

As as for your last comment, that is what really irks me about politically active lefties. The disparaging, sneering, looking down their nose attitude shows the exact traits of what you would expect from a text book Tory. Or someone of a right wing persuasion. You could go as far as saying that class prejudice is not to far away from other irrational prejudices based on gender, sexuality or even race.

 

The difference is that lefties try to mask this irrational prejudice, with the caring sharing ********. It is just ******** really. It is a case of caring and sharing for your own and **** everyone else. Not too different from your average Tory really. Just a lot more hypocritical.

 

As it happens, my politics are fairly central and neither of the big political parties fully represent my views. I prefer to take a common sense approach to things, which is something no major party can seem to do. But if I spot a hypocrite, I will call them out on it.

 

Yet your language gives you away. Why is it BS then? to want a fairer society or is it ok to keep lifting the ladder up on people and if that's an irrational prejudice then call me on it but stop spouting nonsense.

[sandwichsaint]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/16/in-the-election-numbers-game-the-odds-are-stacked-against-cameron

 

Pretty much game over under FPTP, Ed just needs to play a straight bat for another 20 days and it's bye bye Dave, happy days!

[Unbelievable Jeff]

It should be an option on the ballot.

 

When is a serious alternative for the Lib Dems going to come along? If it did they'd really have a good chance of bloodying some noses.

[Ex Lion Tamer]

It should be an option on the ballot.

If you think you can do better you should stand

[Hockey_saint]

When is a serious alternative for the Lib Dems going to come along? If it did they'd really have a good chance of bloodying some noses.

 

How long was the gap last time? 90 years?

[CB Fry]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/16/in-the-election-numbers-game-the-odds-are-stacked-against-cameron

 

Pretty much game over under FPTP, Ed just needs to play a straight bat for another 20 days and it's bye bye Dave, happy days!

Still can't believe it. I think the secret Conservatives voters will come out and put Dave back in. Kinnock was pretty confident, and leading the polls back in 92. When it comes to it I don't think Labour will win enough marginals and will get annihilated in Scotland.

[View From The Top]

If you think you can do better you should stand

 

How very odd.

[View From The Top]

Still can't believe it. I think the secret Conservatives voters will come out and put Dave back in. Kinnock was pretty confident, and leading the polls back in 92. When it comes to it I don't think Labour will win enough marginals and will get annihilated in Scotland.

 

Too close to call either way IMHO.

[Unbelievable Jeff]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/16/in-the-election-numbers-game-the-odds-are-stacked-against-cameron

 

Pretty much game over under FPTP, Ed just needs to play a straight bat for another 20 days and it's bye bye Dave, happy days!

 

Hasn't Ed said he won't form a coalition with the SNP?

[Unbelievable Jeff]

How very odd.

 

You can't have an opinion unless you can actually do better. FACT.

[sandwichsaint]

Still can't believe it. I think the secret Conservatives voters will come out and put Dave back in. Kinnock was pretty confident, and leading the polls back in 92. When it comes to it I don't think Labour will win enough marginals and will get annihilated in Scotland.

 

Read the link.

 

doesnt matter if Labour get anhilated in Scotland , Lab + SNP > Con + Lib

 

Con can only win if they take 20+ Con/Lab marginals and poling nowhere near that at the moment.

[CB Fry]

Too close to call either way IMHO.

.....and I'd take that at this stage, in January I didn't think he had a hope. Ed has grown into the role and I have gone from not seeing him as a PM at all to somebody who could do genuinely do it, while Cameron has looked pretty weak in the debates and when questioned.

 

Maybe keep Ed Balls off the TV for the next 20 days and it might clinch it.

[CB Fry]

Read the link.

 

doesnt matter if Labour get anhilated in Scotland , Lab + SNP > Con + Lib

 

Con can only win if they take 20+ Con/Lab marginals and poling nowhere near that at the moment.

I read the link. Was very interesting. As I suggested I will believe it at about 4am on 8th May.

[View From The Top]

Hasn't Ed said he won't form a coalition with the SNP?

 

It would be a supply and confidence arrangement.

[Johnny Bognor]

Yet your language gives you away. Why is it BS then? to want a fairer society or is it ok to keep lifting the ladder up on people and if that's an irrational prejudice then call me on it but stop spouting nonsense.

 

There are two sides of the coin. Wealth creation and wealth Distribution. If you focus on distribution and not creation, it is pointless, as there is less to share. If you focus too much on creation and not distribution, it's unfair. Unfortunately the two main parties look to represent either side of the coin. My ideal politics would be to have both and no party seems to be able to deliver on this. So I look at policies from different parties and apply rules of common sense as to whether I agree with them or not. Take the minimum wage. When it came in, I was worried as many were that it would be a disaster. As it happens, it has worked very well. Fair play to labour.

 

But there is definitely prejudice, particularly from the lefties on this forum. I don't know if this is driven by envy or some outdated 1970's class warfare. Your comment was said as if having blue noses was a bad thing. Surely as saints fans we have something in common? I am a St holder, go home and away, bleed red and white and supported your team through thick and thin. Yet because of your perceptions as to my political allegencies, suddenly that's a problem?

 

That is prejudice plain and simple.

 

Would you show the same disdain if I was black or gay? I hope not. Most lefties would be the first to call out fascist or homophobic, pretending that they are on some moral high horse, when in fact they display similar prejudices themselves. Can you not see how hypocritical that is??

 

(for not wanting to be called a hypocrite, I am prejudiced against hypocrites, although I don't always pretend to be caring and sharing so it doesn't really matter anyway)

Edited 16 April, 2015 by Johnny Bognor

[Unbelievable Jeff]

It would be a supply and confidence arrangement.

 

Fair enough, that'd work.

[sandwichsaint]

Ed done good on the coalition question, ruled it out without completely ruling-it-out. Sturgeon came on a bit strident at that point, like a sexed-up Margaret Thatcher, I love a feisty bird me.

[Ex Lion Tamer]

You can't have an opinion unless you can actually do better. FACT.

I'm just saying it's all very well being critical but it's actually a hard job. And you do have the option to prove you're better

[Ex Lion Tamer]

Read the link.

 

doesnt matter if Labour get anhilated in Scotland , Lab + SNP > Con + Lib

 

Con can only win if they take 20+ Con/Lab marginals and poling nowhere near that at the moment.

I also can't see the left wing of the lib dems accepting another five years with the tories

[Unbelievable Jeff]

I'm just saying it's all very well being critical but it's actually a hard job. And you do have the option to prove you're better

 

Being facetious mate, don't worry. Someone needs to have a go, that's just normal, not a Farage type figure.

[CB Fry]

 

But there is definitely prejudice, particularly from the lefties on this forum. I don't know if this is driven by envy or some outdated 1970's class warfare. Your comment was said as if having blue noses was a bad thing. Surely as saints fans we have something in common? I am a St holder, go home and away, bleed red and white and supported your team through thick and thin. Yet because of your perceptions as to my political allegencies, suddenly that's a problem?

 

That is prejudice plain and simple.

 

Would you show the same disdain if I was black or gay? I hope not. Most lefties would be the first to call out fascist or homophobic, pretending that they are on some moral high horse, when in fact they display similar prejudices themselves. Can you not see how hypocritical that is??

 

Your black or gay comparison is laughable nonsense, but you know that.

 

Secondly the only person on this thread who has in a tribal way referenced the class wars of the seventies has been Wes Tender dribbling on about beer and sandwiches, Red Robbo and suchlike, as if any of it has any relation to the 2015 Labour party. Wes Tender, for clarity, is not a "leftie".

 

And imagine if you replaced "Red Robbo" with "lesbians" or "gollywog" or "woofters" or something. I mean it's, like, prejudiced and stuff.

[Johnny Bognor]

Your black or gay comparison is laughable nonsense, but you know that.

 

Secondly the only person on this thread who has in a tribal way referenced the class wars of the seventies has been Wes Tender dribbling on about beer and sandwiches, Red Robbo and suchlike, as if any of it has any relation to the 2015 Labour party. Wes Tender, for clarity, is not a "leftie".

 

And imagine if you replaced "Red Robbo" with "lesbians" or "gollywog" or "woofters" or something. I mean it's, like, prejudiced and stuff.

 

Or "rapist" (don't worry, I havent forgotten)

[CB Fry]

Or "rapist" (don't worry, I havent forgotten)

I have no idea what you are talking about. Best not ruin a thread, though, eh?

[trousers]

It would be a supply and confidence arrangement.

 

More likely to be a 'vote by vote' scenario than a formal confidence and supply arrangement IMO.

[View From The Top]

More likely to be a 'vote by vote' scenario than a formal confidence and supply arrangement IMO.

 

Possibly. Going to be interesting whatever the outcome.

[Jonnyboy]

This is shocking from the shadow chancellor, who may be in control of our finances in a few weeks time!!!!

 

Ed Balls dismissed a Labour note saying there was no money left as a "joke".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11541290/Ed-Balls-Labour-note-saying-money-had-run-out-was-a-joke.html

 

Yeah, ****ing hillarious. Perhaps you want to tell that to the people queuing outside the food banks. How can anyone want this joker near our finances ever again? It just shows the contempt these no-good career politicians have of the hard working electorate. I almost yearn for the days of the Chancellor who officially ended boom and bust... just before the bust

 

Feckin Tories are obsessed with that note as if it even means anything.

 

How was your mental breakdown these last few years?

[Hockey_saint]

There are two sides of the coin. Wealth creation and wealth Distribution. If you focus on distribution and not creation, it is pointless, as there is less to share. If you focus too much on creation and not distribution, it's unfair. Unfortunately the two main parties look to represent either side of the coin. My ideal politics would be to have both and no party seems to be able to deliver on this. So I look at policies from different parties and apply rules of common sense as to whether I agree with them or not. Take the minimum wage. When it came in, I was worried as many were that it would be a disaster. As it happens, it has worked very well. Fair play to labour.

 

But there is definitely prejudice, particularly from the lefties on this forum. I don't know if this is driven by envy or some outdated 1970's class warfare. Your comment was said as if having blue noses was a bad thing. Surely as saints fans we have something in common? I am a St holder, go home and away, bleed red and white and supported your team through thick and thin. Yet because of your perceptions as to my political allegencies, suddenly that's a problem?

 

That is prejudice plain and simple.

 

Would you show the same disdain if I was black or gay? I hope not. Most lefties would be the first to call out fascist or homophobic, pretending that they are on some moral high horse, when in fact they display similar prejudices themselves. Can you not see how hypocritical that is??

 

(for not wanting to be called a hypocrite, I am prejudiced against hypocrites, although I don't always pretend to be caring and sharing so it doesn't really matter anyway)

 

In the footballing sense, on a saints messageboard having a blue nose is a bit dodgy. I also get a bit dogmatic because I know what the unionist/conservative party were formed from and looking at their leadership it doesn't appear to have changed. I find this sad. I find many of their policies stuck in a time long before the 1960's and it makes me deeply suspicious of their motives.

 

Whilst Labour are more centre now, I don't think you should class anyone as purely a "leftie" or a "right-winger" but you'll understand how it's so much easier to think of the right as a bunch of nasty so-in-so's than it is the left.

[Johnny Bognor]

Feckin Tories are obsessed with that note as if it even means anything.

 

Of course they are, as they will use it to damage his credibility if they can. It won't lose them votes and may win them votes. It would be the same in reverse.

 

How was your mental breakdown these last few years?

 

All good, but rather than expecting the state to sort me out, I managed to take personal responsibility and sort it out on my own. But as you clearly are a caring sharing leftie, I must thank you for asking

 

In the footballing sense, on a saints messageboard having a blue nose is a bit dodgy.

 

We have 000's of fans and centre right voters use the internet. Is it really that surprising?

 

Whilst Labour are more centre now, I don't think you should class anyone as purely a "leftie" or a "right-winger" but you'll understand how it's so much easier to think of the right as a bunch of nasty so-in-so's than it is the left.

 

There is always the assumption that tories are all rich and that they are all privileged (Dave is, sure I accept that). But John Major was a school leaver and was unemployed. Thatcher was the daughter of a shop keeper and was brought up in a flat. I would guess that most people had a background more similar to both Thatcher and Major, as opposed to millionaire Milliband

 

It maybe easier to believe right wingers are nasty, but if you look at the behaviour on this forum, the left wingers don't live up to the caring sharing ******** (Jonnyboy excluded. He clearly is caring, if not sharing). Ironically, the extreme left wing UAF are more fascist than the fascists they propose to oppose. Quite laughable really.

Edited 16 April, 2015 by Johnny Bognor

[Hockey_saint]

No they don't you are right. John Major was from Brixton and very working-class so in a sense, he's like Darren Anderton (seen as a bit of a traitor). Although even John Major has come out lately and complained about the treatment of the poor and disabled by this coalition.

 

One could say he's spoken out against the tories more than Clegg ever has. Also, I grant you, within the left there have been those who'll use the mantra for their own goals. Kinda like I explain to my father when he suggests China (where he spends a lot of time) is communist. I explain that true communism is a methodology of thought but more so an economic system and that what we actually have in most "communist countries" is a right-wing, totalitarian system....never more so than China.

 

So yes, it's fair to say there have been nutters parading as both right and left but usually those on the right ARE right wing and those of the left tend to be right-wing-thinking people using such a system to their advantage.....maybe I was wrong to say that we shouldnt think of people as right or left.

[Johnny Bognor]

No they don't you are right. John Major was from Brixton and very working-class so in a sense, he's like Darren Anderton (seen as a bit of a traitor). Although even John Major has come out lately and complained about the treatment of the poor and disabled by this coalition.

 

One could say he's spoken out against the tories more than Clegg ever has. Also, I grant you, within the left there have been those who'll use the mantra for their own goals. Kinda like I explain to my father when he suggests China (where he spends a lot of time) is communist. I explain that true communism is a methodology of thought but more so an economic system and that what we actually have in most "communist countries" is a right-wing, totalitarian system....never more so than China.

 

So yes, it's fair to say there have been nutters parading as both right and left but usually those on the right ARE right wing and those of the left tend to be right-wing-thinking people using such a system to their advantage.....maybe I was wrong to say that we shouldnt think of people as right or left.

 

I think most normal people are governed by common sense. Those politically motivated, will stick to the party lines. I prefer not to stick to a party line and wouldn't want to accept everything a party does as right. Most traditional labour voters were betrayed by new labour in many ways, yet labour voters will defend them to the hilt. I don't get that.

 

I wasn't sure about the coalition. They haven't done an amazing job by any means, but it hasn't been the disaster most people expected either. I was brought up on two party politics and I think that coalitions and consensus politics is the way forward.

 

But it is also weird that people will choose people most unlike them to represent them politically, but don't accept those unlike them to support the same football team. Can't get my head round that....

[Ex Lion Tamer]

So Cameron is claiming that he wasn't invited to the debates. Just another example of the way he brazenly lies to the country

[CB Fry]

More likely to be a 'vote by vote' scenario than a formal confidence and supply arrangement IMO.

If Labour alone don't get more than the Tories on the night then I'd think it might need to be a bit more formal. Otherwise the Conservatives could form a minority administration, I think.

 

It's weird people think that Sturgeon would have loads of power in that situation, when I'm not sure she would have as much as some think.

 

She's told that nation now she effectively will stop the Tories at any cost, so she's going to have to sign up to Ed's offer whatever. If she lets Cameron back in because of Trident, say, she's going to look a right plum (especially as Trident will get through anyway).

 

She plays silly jocks on May 8th/9th she could royally fu ck herself.

[CB Saint]

A vote by vote minority scenario would be a total disaster. At least with a majority or a coalition you can get a sense of what the next five years will hold. What business is going to want to make longer term investment decisions if they don't know what is going to be passed as law from one day to the next.

 

if this happens, we will be back to the polls way before the end of the five year term.

[CB Saint]

Old Vincent cable has been quiet, considering the prominent role he played last time. Is he standing down?

[Johnny Bognor]

Whatever the outcome of this election, I think it is fascinating, as was the last. Many of us grew up with a two party system. One or the other. You could predict the outcome with some certainty as groundswell support moved either left or right, with the only shock of the last 40 years being the thatcher kinnock election. Now no one has a clue what's going to happen and how it's going to turn out.

 

the polls show the current state of play, but there is always a swing back to the incumbent as the election looms. In a safe Tory seat like Chichester, the ukip protest vote will hold. But in key marginals, I think there will be a swing from ukip to Tory, because whatever your views on immigration, you can't really vote for a one trick pony. This effect will only come to light in the few days before the election.

Edited 17 April, 2015 by Johnny Bognor

[CB Fry]

Whatever the outcome of this election, I think it is fascinating, as was the last. Many of us grew up with a two party system. One or the other. You could predict the outcome with some certainty as groundswell support moved either left or right, with the only shock of the last 40 years being the thatcher kinnock election. Now no one has a clue what's going to happen and how it's going to turn out.

 

the polls show the current state of play, but there is always a swing back to the incumbent as the election looms. In a safe Tory seat like Chichester, the ukip protest vote will hold. But in key marginals, I think there will be a swing from ukip to Tory, because whatever your views on immigration, you can't really vote for a one trick pony. This effect will only come to light in the few days before the election.

I think you mean Major/Kinnock.

 

I agree though, but like last time it will only get more fascinating post polling day.

[OldNick]

If people think that Labour will make your lives better you will be disappointed. Just watch living standards drop as the money flows out of the country and the pound plummets. The cost of anything that is imported will go up, costing everybody more.

Having Balls in charge of the economy lol. Foreign investors will leave and the impression people will have the impression they are not welcome.

You only have to look across the channel to see what can happen

[View From The Top]

If people think that Labour will make your lives better you will be disappointed. Just watch living standards drop as the money flows out of the country and the pound plummets. The cost of anything that is imported will go up, costing everybody more.

Having Balls in charge of the economy lol. Foreign investors will leave and the impression people will have the impression they are not welcome.

You only have to look across the channel to see what can happen

 

Yawn.

[View From The Top]

Whatever the outcome of this election, I think it is fascinating, as was the last. Many of us grew up with a two party system. One or the other. You could predict the outcome with some certainty as groundswell support moved either left or right, with the only shock of the last 40 years being the thatcher kinnock election. Now no one has a clue what's going to happen and how it's going to turn out.

 

the polls show the current state of play, but there is always a swing back to the incumbent as the election looms. In a safe Tory seat like Chichester, the ukip protest vote will hold. But in key marginals, I think there will be a swing from ukip to Tory, because whatever your views on immigration, you can't really vote for a one trick pony. This effect will only come to light in the few days before the election.

 

I'm not sure about the UKIP vote. Part of me agrees with you that when it comes down to it they'll go tory. However, UKIP have worked hard on cultivating the overweight bloke in the pub who is always on about foreigners, Express readers and oldies who still dream of Empire.