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Brexit - Enter at Your Own Risk


Saints Web Definitely Not Official Second Referendum  

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  1. 1. Saints Web Definitely Not Official Second Referendum

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    • No second Ref - 2016 was Definitive and Binding
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10 hours ago, Lord Duckhunter said:

What’s that got to do with the thread. Unless you’re implying that remain voters are more likely to be sex pests, I don’t see why you’re bringing it up. 

Clearly you are not aware...

One of the most prominent Brexiteer MPs has gone very quiet. Very unlike him not to have an opinion on the current Brexit issues. Just after the allegations were made and the MP in question was charged.

Of course it may be just a coincidence ...

 

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20 minutes ago, Tamesaint said:

Clearly you are not aware...

One of the most prominent Brexiteer MPs has gone very quiet. Very unlike him not to have an opinion on the current Brexit issues. Just after the allegations were made and the MP in question was charged.

Of course it may be just a coincidence ...

 

The question was about Charlie Elphicke, apart from voting remain , what’s his conviction got to do with Brexit. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Lol.

Eliot Engel :

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So, you are mocking the Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee because he has a 'tache, wearx glasses, wears a red tie, or has a matching hankie in his jacket pocket ?

Have you not seen any pictures of the Prime Minister ?

Edited by badgerx16
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2 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

So, you are mocking the Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee because he has a 'tache, wearx glasses, wears a red tie, or has a matching hankie in his jacket pocket ?

Have you not seen any pictures of the Prime Minister ?

The PM doesn't have a toy made after him (yet) ;)

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9 hours ago, Hockey_saint said:

Richard E Neal is the head of an A-Political organisation and most of those will still be there no matter the election result so well done Boris and his brexiteers....we're absolutely screwed.

You're such a drama queen, we aren't screwed at all. It will soon become apparent to them that the measures taken in the Internal Market Bill are designed to protect the Good Friday Agreement and then they can stop their posturing, attempting to gain the Irish vote in their forthcoming elections.

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23 minutes ago, Hockey_saint said:

Oh? But I thought Brexit was supposed to trigger the entire collapse of the EU and free movement?.....

Prisoners they are, prisoners. Itching to get out they are, itching.  

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I thought that both of you would have known that Switzerland was not a member state of the EU, so it would be pretty difficult to get out of something you are not a part of, wouldn't it?🙄

Also Hockey, it is a bit premature to postulate on whether our leaving of the EU will trigger others following us out, as although we have left technically, we are still tied to the SM and CU until the end of the year under the WA. The pot is boiling nicely with several other factors that will influence the break up of the EU apart from freedom of movement. I suggest that you wait patiently for the passage of events that will bring about that decline in the fortunes of the EU. 

Regarding our own exit, the EU is between a rock and a hard place over it. Their desire to attempt to punish us for leaving, or making us a vassal  colony of the EU, has backfired and they are now faced with either arranging a FTA deal with us commensurate with those they have arranged with Canada/S.Korea/Japan, or harming their massive trade surplus with us by having us leave without a FTA deal on WTO terms. Either way, when we make a success of it, others will be encouraged to follow.

Apart from that, pressures on the Euro caused by the failure of Italian banks, the Greek economy, massive youth unemployment in Southern Europe, the dissent over the hugely increased contributions needed to keep the EU gravy train on its tracks because of the Chinese virus, and several other factors will increasingly combine to destabilise the whole shebang.

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1 hour ago, Wes Tender said:

I thought that both of you would have known that Switzerland was not a member state of the EU, so it would be pretty difficult to get out of something you are not a part of, wouldn't it?🙄

Also Hockey, it is a bit premature to postulate on whether our leaving of the EU will trigger others following us out, as although we have left technically, we are still tied to the SM and CU until the end of the year under the WA. The pot is boiling nicely with several other factors that will influence the break up of the EU apart from freedom of movement. I suggest that you wait patiently for the passage of events that will bring about that decline in the fortunes of the EU. 

Regarding our own exit, the EU is between a rock and a hard place over it. Their desire to attempt to punish us for leaving, or making us a vassal  colony of the EU, has backfired and they are now faced with either arranging a FTA deal with us commensurate with those they have arranged with Canada/S.Korea/Japan, or harming their massive trade surplus with us by having us leave without a FTA deal on WTO terms. Either way, when we make a success of it, others will be encouraged to follow.

Apart from that, pressures on the Euro caused by the failure of Italian banks, the Greek economy, massive youth unemployment in Southern Europe, the dissent over the hugely increased contributions needed to keep the EU gravy train on its tracks because of the Chinese virus, and several other factors will increasingly combine to destabilise the whole shebang.

More of the same tragi-comedy that exists only in your head.  The EU has always been on the verge of collapse according to the pro-Brexit campaign. Yet oddly since 1973 17 new countries have joined and only Britain has left (aside from Greenland after independence from Denmark). Another 10 are hoping to join.    

 

 

Edited by buctootim
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6 minutes ago, buctootim said:

More of the same tragi-comedy that exists only in your head.  The EU has always been on the verge of collapse according to the pro-Brexit campaign. Yet oddly since 1973 17 new countries have joined and zero have left (aside from Greenland after independence from Denmark). Another 10 are hoping to join.    

What, the sort of tragi-comedic stuff like the Noway option that only exists in your head? 😄

Thanks for your comments, which ironically provide the basis for the arguments in support of my case. As I advised, it is a bit premature at this stage to crow that the EU hasn't collapsed because we have left, when we aren't quite yet fully out of the door. Have a bit of patience as I counseled and wait to see what sort of arrangement with the EU we end up with and what the implications from that will be, before making any assessments of the potential consequences for us or the EU.

Like a house of cards, the possibility of the collapse of the EU has grown the more members it gains, especially when the newer members are former states of the Soviet Union. The EEC/Common Market was certainly a lot more stable and a common currency much more viable when it was a conglomerate of economically and politically stable nations like the original members. Not only are the economies and political systems in those new member states very much weaker and less stable, requiring them to be net beneficiaries of the largesse of the wealthier states, but it naturally brought about the huge migrations under the freedom of movement policy that caused unrest and resentment among those countries that were swamped by it, and a big factor of course in our decision to leave the EU.

If you think that the addition of those poverty ridden Eastern European states and the further addition of even more of them will not increase tensions substantially with the wealthier member states who will have to finance their development and accommodate their economic migrant citizens, then more fool you. The evidence of unrest in the EU is plain to see, earlier on from referenda that voted against the EEC becoming a federal United States of Europe, causing resentment when they were thwarted, to governments like Hungary rebelling against the influx of economic migrants entering their borders, to the rise of political parties whose intent is the leaving of their country from the EU.

But none of this is our problem any longer, thankfully. We can happily watch from the sidelines as the EU tears itself apart.

 

 

 

 

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Since August 2017 there has been a consistent majority of people who think leaving the the EU was a mistake - but the gap has never been this wide. Only 39% of voters now think leaving was the right thing to do.   

 

WhatUKThinks_Poll_8998_20200928.jpeg

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Since August 2017, that question has been asked 154 times.  The sample size used each time the question was asked was in the region of 1600 people. Since March 2020 the question has been asked with only one other question in the poll.  All 154 polls were funded by The Times.

More stats can be found here : https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/?notes

Edited by Weston Super Saint
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13 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Since August 2017, that question has been asked 154 times.  The sample size used each time the question was asked was in the region of 1600 people. Since March 2020 the question has been asked with only one other question in the poll.  All 154 polls were funded by The Times.

More stats can be found here : https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/?notes

I'm amazed that Timmy seems to put much store on this piffling poll sample size and is then prepared to state that "since August 2017 there has been a consistent majority of people who think that leaving the EU was a mistake" as if to infer that the country does as a whole. Yes a consistent majority of a tiny selected sample whose demographic is unknown believe it was the wrong decision. And an average of at least 10% consistently don't know. As this time span mostly covers a period when we hadn't left, and since the end of January when we had left but are still tied to the CU and SM while we negotiate a trading relationship with the EU, it is not at all surprising that recent polls indicate negativity towards us leaving when the remoaner media are full steam ahead on project fear Mk 2 the closer we get to the end of the WA.

Although remoaners like Timmy will gain some comfort from it, this polling exercise is completely pointless, as we aren't going to suddenly ask to rejoin the EU. It would be interesting to speculate what the poll results would be on rejoining under a scenario that the price to be paid would be joining the Euro, having to pay substantially more towards the running costs of the gravy train, accepting more pro-federal legislation, tying ourselves to the EU Army,  and having to accept the next wave of economic migrants into the country from these ten new member states that Timmy says are hoping to join.

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5 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Since August 2017, that question has been asked 154 times.  The sample size used each time the question was asked was in the region of 1600 people. Since March 2020 the question has been asked with only one other question in the poll.  All 154 polls were funded by The Times.

More stats can be found here : https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/?notes

 

4 hours ago, Wes Tender said:

I'm amazed that Timmy seems to put much store on this piffling poll sample size and is then prepared to state that "since August 2017 there has been a consistent majority of people who think that leaving the EU was a mistake" as if to infer that the country does as a whole. Yes a consistent majority of a tiny selected sample whose demographic is unknown believe it was the wrong decision.

It's at times like these that your fundamental ignorance is displayed front and centre. No-one needs to infer it. 

If you ask a single question of 1,600 people in a randomised sample on 154 separate occasions and you get consistent answers - statistically there is to all intents and purposes no doubt - less than 1 in 10 billion chance. Not a high probability, not a "yeah but no but". The problem for you guys is that you don't understand pretty basic statistics and how they can, and can't be skewed.   The demographic isn't unknown, you could look it up if you had any genuine interest in understanding rather than schoolboy debunking. I've given you a primer link below. Weston , you're wrong about only one other question being asked since March. That approach has been used the majority of times since June 2016, so the answers are directly comparable, the methodology hasn't changed. 

https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/faq-sampling

Edited by buctootim
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6 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Since August 2017, that question has been asked 154 times.  The sample size used each time the question was asked was in the region of 1600 people. Since March 2020 the question has been asked with only one other question in the poll.  All 154 polls were funded by The Times.

More stats can be found here : https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/?notes

So potentially nearly a quarter of a million people have been asked that question, and consistently the trend is for an increasing percentage who feel it is a bad idea.  Surely that would be a representative sample ?

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17 minutes ago, buctootim said:

 

It's at times like these that your fundamental ignorance is displayed front and centre. No-one needs to infer it. 

If you ask a single question of 1,600 people in a randomised sample on 154 separate occasions and you get consistent answers - statistically there is to all intents and purposes no doubt - less than 1 in 10 billion chance. Not a high probability, not a "yeah but no but". The problem for you guys is that you don't understand pretty basic statistics and how they can, and can't be skewed.    Oh and Weston , you're wrong about only one other question being asked since March. That approach has been used the majority of times since June 2016, so the answers are directly comparable, the methodology hasn't changed - which is what you were trying to imply in your own weak way. 

You really must be incredibly naive if you place so much credence in opinion polls, Timmy. I could post a link to that clip from Yes Minister to demonstrate how they can be manipulated, but I'm sure that you will either recall its contents, or be capable of finding it yourself. I'll have to repeat the assertion, that the response to polling questions is dependent on the demographics of the sample, the geography, sex, age, education, political and religious background of the contributor, so there is plenty of scope for variation in the results simply by concentrating on a demographic that supports the view you seek to promote. 

You claim that we don't understand statistics and how they can or can't be skewed, but patently we are well aware of how they can be manipulated to give the result sought by those who fund them. It might interest you to know that 87.5% of people employ statistics in an argument in an attempt to give the impression that they are smart

My views on polling are clear and consistent that the only poll that counts is an election. This piffling little poll sample of yours is irrelevant and doesn't change anything at all. Move on.

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11 minutes ago, Wes Tender said:

 

My views on polling are clear and consistent that the only poll that counts is an election.

That would be the one where less than 45% of the votes gives an unassailable overall governng majority.

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5 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

So potentially nearly a quarter of a million people have been asked that question, and consistently the trend is for an increasing percentage who feel it is a bad idea.  Surely that would be a representative sample ?

That isn't how polling works, Badger. There are invited databases of respondents, so often the same people. The pollsters would love to have people believe that it is a representative sample, but it is just the views of typically under 2000 people who ideally would cover the demographic of the nation, but probably don't. A more representative result comes from a poll of polls, which at least will cover a larger sample, although many of them will have their own agendas.

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With such consistent credible polling it should be very easy for remoaners to get together, create a mass movement that forces a third referendum and then win it. For all their intelligence, superior education & compassion , I doubt they’ll be able to. It’s not as easy as Nige made it look. 

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1 minute ago, badgerx16 said:

That would be the one where less than 45% of the votes gives an unassailable overall governng majority.

That is our Parliamentary first past the post system for you. But we were discussing opinions on Brexit, Badger, where the vote was binary, decided by a simple majority vote. No doubt we can run it all again after a suitable passage of time, at least ten years, perhaps. If the EU stills exists in its current form.

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50 minutes ago, Wes Tender said:

That is our Parliamentary first past the post system for you. But we were discussing opinions on Brexit, Badger, where the vote was binary, decided by a simple majority vote. No doubt we can run it all again after a suitable passage of time, at least ten years, perhaps. If the EU stills exists in its current form.

To be fair, if it turns out to be a complete shit-show when we leave then there is no reason why we have to wait 10 years.

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1 hour ago, Wes Tender said:

That is our Parliamentary first past the post system for you. But we were discussing opinions on Brexit, Badger, where the vote was binary, decided by a simple majority vote. No doubt we can run it all again after a suitable passage of time, at least ten years, perhaps. If the EU stills exists in its current form.

You said "the only poll that counts is an election", and it was this comment to which I replied.

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1 hour ago, aintforever said:

To be fair, if it turns out to be a complete shit-show when we leave then there is no reason why we have to wait 10 years.

So by the same measure, you would agree that the minute that the EEC/Common Market morphed into the EU by virtue of the Maastricht Treaty, we should have had a referendum to allow the electorate to rubber stamp it, yes?

Otherwise, it is not unreasonable to ask that the similar length of time be allowed to pass between the referendum to join and the referendum to leave, before deciding to rejoin again.

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1 hour ago, badgerx16 said:

You said "the only poll that counts is an election", and it was this comment to which I replied.

OK, a plebiscite then. I trust that covers elections and referenda to your satisfaction.

 

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25 minutes ago, Wes Tender said:

So by the same measure, you would agree that the minute that the EEC/Common Market morphed into the EU by virtue of the Maastricht Treaty, we should have had a referendum to allow the electorate to rubber stamp it, yes?

 

If the government wanted to yes.

If Brexit has a negative effect on the economy and the British people want to go beck in, it will inevitably happen at some point.

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34 minutes ago, Wes Tender said:

So by the same measure, you would agree that the minute that the EEC/Common Market morphed into the EU by virtue of the Maastricht Treaty, we should have had a referendum to allow the electorate to rubber stamp it, yes?

 

But don't we elect Governments to make decisions on our behalf ? If not, we'd be having referenda every weekend.

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13 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

But don't we elect Governments to make decisions on our behalf ? If not, we'd be having referenda every weekend.

I refer you both to consider LD's last post and also my points that any future referendum on rejoining would have to include the EU insisting that we join the Euro, go back to the CAP,  CFP, join the EU Army, cough up considerably more into the EU budget to pay for the Chinese virus and baling out the failing banks, plus accepting the next tidal wave of migrants from the free movement of citizens when the next 10 impoverished countries have joined.

Good luck with getting the electorate to agree with all that. But we aren't going to have a shit-show. After a while, we will wonder why we didn't do it years ago. Well, we were promised a referendum years ago, but successive governments reneged on their promises.

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4 hours ago, buctootim said:

 

It's at times like these that your fundamental ignorance is displayed front and centre. No-one needs to infer it. 

If you ask a single question of 1,600 people in a randomised sample on 154 separate occasions and you get consistent answers -

https://ukpollingreport.co.uk/faq-sampling

You're implying that the poll asked on average 1,600 random people on 154 seperate occasions - giving a total poll size in the region of around 250,000.

Can you provide any links that state this is the case - I posted a link to the notes from that survey previously, but they are here for you to reference https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/in-highsight-do-you-think-britain-was-right-or-wrong-to-vote-to-leave-the-eu/?notes

I cannot find anywhere in those notes where it states that an entirely new group of people were asked the questions each and every time - but am happy for you to point me in the right direction.

For all we know, they may have an email list of 2,000 people who they send the poll out to every week and see how many reply.  There is nothing in the notes to suggest otherwise...

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4 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

So potentially nearly a quarter of a million people have been asked that question, and consistently the trend is for an increasing percentage who feel it is a bad idea.  Surely that would be a representative sample ?

Not necessarily - see post above....

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39 minutes ago, Wes Tender said:

I refer you both to consider LD's last post and also my points that any future referendum on rejoining would have to include the EU insisting that we join the Euro, go back to the CAP,  CFP, join the EU Army, cough up considerably more into the EU budget to pay for the Chinese virus and baling out the failing banks, plus accepting the next tidal wave of migrants from the free movement of citizens when the next 10 impoverished countries have joined.

Good luck with getting the electorate to agree with all that. But we aren't going to have a shit-show. After a while, we will wonder why we didn't do it years ago. Well, we were promised a referendum years ago, but successive governments reneged on their promises.

There is no EU army, nor is one in the pipeline. If Trump gets re-elected and reduces the US commitment to NATO  there may be a need for closer defence ties across Europe, independant of the States, but that makes common sense and would extend beyond the borders of the EU.

( "Chinese virus" - boring, predictable, and slightly pathetic )

Most of the rest is rehashing the scare mongering produced by the leave side during the Brexit referendum campaign.

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Just now, badgerx16 said:

There is no EU army, nor is one in the pipeline. If Trump gets re-elected and reduces the US commitment to NATO  there may be a need for closer defence ties across Europe, independant of the States, but that makes common sense and would extend beyond the borders of the EU.

( "Chinese virus" - boring, predictable, and slightly pathetic )

Most of the rest is rehashing the scare mongering produced by the leave side during the Brexit referendum campaign.

Who cares? It's all conjecture anyway. You don't think that those conditions will be applied to a supplicant UK begging to rejoin the EU gravy train, but I do. Until the situation arises, there will be no evidence either way. I'm entirely content that the situation will probably not arise in my lifetime, which could be several years yet, provided I don't fall victim to the Chinese virus.

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who told you that EU have not made plans for an EU army? The European Parliament has repeatedly called for fully using the potential of the lisbon treaty provisions to works towards a European defence union. It consistently supports more cooperation, increased investment and pooling resources to create synergies at EU level in order to better protect Europeans.

Sounds like the Eu want to pool resources into one central command eg an eu army to me... no suprise really, combine the spending of each member and it has the 2nd biggest defense budget in the world.

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https://briefingsforbritain.co.uk/will-the-eu-form-its-own-army/

It seems that the major players in the EU hierarchy believe that an EU Army would be a desirable thing. Our leaving the EU has queered the pitch somewhat, when along with France we were the two top military powers. Another one in the eye for the EU is the likely change of policy over Government procurement, when we had to put out to tender the purchase of all military hardware to all member states of the EU. Hopefully the policy will now be that we manufacture that in the UK, creating new jobs along the way. We have already seen the reopening of Appledore Shipyard and plans to build a couple of RN Ships that Spain and Malta were hoping to procure contracts to build, I believe.

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34 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Briefings For Britain, formerly known as Briefings For Brexit, still pedalling pre referendum hype.

If you read the article a bit more carefully, you would see that the vast majority of the information and quotes were actually post referendum. Feel free to disparage anything in the article that you know to be incorrect with examples and your corrections.

It has only been a bit over four years since the referendum, but plans to formulate a policy like an EU Army require long term planning. After all, this is the EU we are talking about here, the organisation that takes years and years to negotiate a simple free trade deal with other countries, so references to planning for it from some time ago are perfectly valid in support of an argument that an EU Army is planned. Have Merkel and Macron changed their minds? Have Verhofstadt's plans for a European Empire with its own army been ditched because we have left? Who knows what is going on in his head?

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22 minutes ago, Wes Tender said:

If you read the article a bit more carefully, you would see that the vast majority of the information and quotes were actually post referendum. Feel free to disparage anything in the article that you know to be incorrect with examples and your corrections.

It has only been a bit over four years since the referendum, but plans to formulate a policy like an EU Army require long term planning. After all, this is the EU we are talking about here, the organisation that takes years and years to negotiate a simple free trade deal with other countries, so references to planning for it from some time ago are perfectly valid in support of an argument that an EU Army is planned. Have Merkel and Macron changed their minds? Have Verhofstadt's plans for a European Empire with its own army been ditched because we have left? Who knows what is going on in his head?

Let's assume the rhetoric is true. With the USA threatening to severely reduce it's commitment to NATO, why shouldn't 'closer integration' of defence capabilities across Europe be beneficial ? Where does the UK's isolationist/indepedent stance then leave it ? Acting under the delusion that we are still a World Power with the ability to independently 'project force', or clinging to the coat tails of a self interested USA ?

Edited by badgerx16
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