Survival now in our own hands

[Dan Johnson]

With a game in hand & Forest & Blackpool still to play, Surival is now very much in our own hands. Win the game in hand, & win against either Forest or Blackpool and we are above the respective club we beat. We need to match their results, staying in touching distance, but we're not fighting a losing battle... not just yet.

[Nineteen Canteen]

With a game in hand & Forest & Blackpool still to play, Surival is now very much in our own hands. Win the game in hand, & win against either Forest or Blackpool and we are above the respective club we beat. We need to match their results, staying in touching distance, but we're not fighting a losing battle... not just yet.

 

Ssh you'll up set the doom mongers and nay sayers who believe Derby is a must win game when looking at their form its our hardest fixture of a very difficult run of 8 games that makes are remaining 9 look like a cake walk. I doubt many of our relegation rivals last 8 games mirror the games we've had. All teams challenging for/or in the top 6 and the best current form team in the league.

 

Makes QPR, Blackpool, Watford, Palace, Charlton look like bankers wins in my postively sunny and bright confidence that we'll survive. Hope yet we may get 60 points and survive a points deduction if we go into admin because apart from Wobbly Wolves I'd fancy our chances against anyone we've got to play after Derby given the manner of our performances under Wotte.

 

Be quiet though as it's an upsetting thought for those who'd rather see the club relegated than Lowe book a place in the boardroom for another season. Strange fans.

[trousers]

Ssh you'll up set the doom mongers and nay sayers who believe Derby is a must win game when looking at their form its our hardest fixture of a very difficult run of 8 games that makes are remaining 9 look like a cake walk. I doubt many of our relegation rivals last 8 games mirror the games we've had. All teams challenging for/or in the top 6 and the best current form team in the league.

 

Makes QPR, Blackpool, Watford, Palace, Charlton look like bankers wins in my postively sunny and bright confidence that we'll survive. Hope yet we may get 60 points and survive a points deduction if we go into admin because apart from Wobbly Wolves I'd fancy our chances against anyone we've got to play after Derby given the manner of our performances under Wotte.

 

Be quiet though as it's an upsetting thought for those who'd rather see the club relegated than Lowe book a place in the boardroom for another season. Strange fans.

 

Get biting folks...

[londonsaint1604]

It will be close but I think we'll survive this season.

[cellone]

Thought this was a football post, whats lowe and peoples view of him got to do with it?

 

Back to topic. It is a scary feeling that survival may well be in our own hands. I agree after derby we have a run in that is easier than some of our reli rivals. We will have to keep hoping to the final whistle of the season again imho.

 

Also we shouldn't write of the derby game but a result from it would be hard earned.

[Stax]

Two home games coming up, i think we can get 4 points a draw with Derby and beat QPR on Saturday, but who knows i thought we wouuld get nothing against Cardiff and draw with Preston! Lets forget about the Birmingham game they have the best home record in the league shame we had to play them in the middle of our winning run but lets hope it continues on Tuesday.

[Frank's cousin]

Think we can do it - just got to take each day as it comes and ignore what teh others are doing - we get to 51-53 points we will stay up...

[krissyboy31]

With a game in hand & Forest & Blackpool still to play, Surival is now very much in our own hands. Win the game in hand, & win against either Forest or Blackpool and we are above the respective club we beat. We need to match their results, staying in touching distance, but we're not fighting a losing battle... not just yet.

 

You could put it like that (we've also got games against Derby, Watford, Charlton and Palace, none of whom are yet out of it). However, all of the other teams could say the same because they've got Southampton, plus team 'A', plus team 'B' still to play.

 

The likelihood IMO, is that we will need 52 points to stay up. That is another 15 from the final 10 games. Still very much a tall order.

[saintjay77]

On paper those are the big maptches but Derby and QPR remain big matches purly because of the results others around us are picking up. IMO every game from here on in is massive for us and it will be difficult to look ahead and know what matches will be the important ones.

[Chez]

The likelihood IMO, is that we will need 52 points to stay up. That is another 15 from the final 10 games. Still very much a tall order.

 

indeed it is and its pretty difficult to predict results in the CCC. I've already written off Sheff Wed and Wolves away but even those games might produce a shock.

[Whitey Grandad]

All we can do is concentrate on winning the next game, and then the next game, and then the n......

[a1ex2001]

Were going to need some unexpected wins to keep us up as I'm sure we'l drop a few points in games we shouldn't but thats football. Here's hoping we pick up all three points against Derby and all the other results go our way, would put us in a great position for Sunday.

[St Marco]

Actually it isn't in our own hands. If we win all our games and everyone else wins their games we are down. We need to win and hope teams lose. We need 5 points to clear Forest and 3 to clear Barnsley. But they have 2 games in hand over us so we have to hope they lose them both. Because if they win them both to match our games played would mean we would need 9 points to over-take them.

10 games left and i think we need at bare minimum 5 wins from them. But even then 15 from 30 might not be enough. Every game now is massive and Derby and QPR are must win games. After that we have 8 games left of which only 3 will be at home.

All we can do is win our games, if we do that we have a chance, every loss now has the potential to really fook it up for us. For example if we lose to Derby and Barnsley win they go 6 points clear of us with 2 games in hand. if Forest win we need 7 points to jump them. That means of the 9 remaining we would need 3 wins just to get level and hope they lose 3 games.

So it is far from in our hands, but if we win the games we have, especially our home ones then we have a chance.

[Window Cleaner]

Actually it isn't in our own hands. If we win all our games and everyone else wins their games we are down. We need to win and hope teams lose. We need 5 points to clear Forest and 3 to clear Barnsley. But they have 2 games in hand over us so we have to hope they lose them both. Because if they win them both to match our games played would mean we would need 9 points to over-take them.

10 games left and i think we need at bare minimum 5 wins from them. But even then 15 from 30 might not be enough. Every game now is massive and Derby and QPR are must win games. After that we have 8 games left of which only 3 will be at home.

All we can do is win our games, if we do that we have a chance, every loss now has the potential to really fook it up for us. For example if we lose to Derby and Barnsley win they go 6 points clear of us with 2 games in hand. if Forest win we need 7 points to jump them. That means of the 9 remaining we would need 3 wins just to get level and hope they lose 3 games.

So it is far from in our hands, but if we win the games we have, especially our home ones then we have a chance.

 

But what of the common games? between ourselves and Blackpool and ourselves and Forest. If we win they can't and vice-versa.You have to factor in the common games between relegation candidates and there are a lot of them.

[70's Mike]

experience has shown it is never as simple as just beating Blackpool and Forest, both games are away and they will treat them as must win to.

Points over the next week are vital to stay in touch without them as well beating Blackpool and Forest will not be enough.

[St Marco]

But what of the common games? between ourselves and Blackpool and ourselves and Forest. If we win they can't and vice-versa.You have to factor in the common games between relegation candidates and there are a lot of them.

 

We'll we have to play Blackpool and Watford. Charlton are gone so we should forget them.

 

Blackpool are 5 points ahead of us. If we win our game in hand and then beat them we will need to have brought our GD down by 4 to leap frog them. So in that regards it is in our own hands. BUT if we lose a game and they win a game means they will go 8 points clear of us. If that happens think then as i said we really will be up against it.

Then we have Watford who we would need 6 points to clear and would need to ajust our GD by scoring 11goals without conceeding. Not very likely. Add to that they have a game in hand on us. Meaning we need to win and hope they lose 3 games before they play us. Then we would need to beat them to over-take them.

So in English that means we need to win and hope teams lose. It will be out of Blackpool,Barnsley,Forest Saints and Norwich for the last 2 spots. As things stand for us to get out of the relegation zone we have to win and Barnsley have to lose.

[Window Cleaner]

We'll we have to play Blackpool and Watford. Charlton are gone so we should forget them.

 

Blackpool are 5 points ahead of us. If we win our game in hand and then beat them we will need to have brought our GD down by 4 to leap frog them. So in that regards it is in our own hands. BUT if we lose a game and they win a game means they will go 8 points clear of us. If that happens think then as i said we really will be up against it.

Then we have Watford who we would need 6 points to clear and would need to ajust our GD by scoring 11goals without conceeding. Not very likely. Add to that they have a game in hand on us. Meaning we need to win and hope they lose 3 games before they play us. Then we would need to beat them to over-take them.

So in English that means we need to win and hope teams lose. It will be out of Blackpool,Barnsley,Forest Saints and Norwich for the last 2 spots. As things stand for us to get out of the relegation zone we have to win and Barnsley have to lose.

 

 

But surely if Blackpool are 5 points ahead and we beat them and win our game in hand we'd go 1 point above them; Same with Forest.

[70's Mike]

But surely if Blackpool are 5 points ahead and we beat them and win our game in hand we'd go 1 point above them; Same with Forest.

 

 

i suppose it depends on what game you consider our game in hand, i assume it is watford away which is going to be tough

[St Marco]

But surely if Blackpool are 5 points ahead and we beat them and win our game in hand we'd go 1 point above them; Same with Forest.

 

No because that requires us to win both games against Derby and QPR and Blackpool to win their 2 games before we play them. If that happens and we then beat Blackpool and then win our game in hand will mean we go ahead of them. But it means before that can happen the sequence of results must stay the same i.e if we lose the teams around us have to lose, if we win the teams around us have to win etc. If one result is not in line with the sequence in the 2 games before we play them it changes it. For example if we beat Derby and QPR and Blackpool lose the 2 games we will already be ahead of them by the time we play them with that game and the game in hand to come.

As things stand as of right now for us to get out of the relegation zone we have to win against Derby and Barnsley have to lose against Birmingham. If we draw and they lose we stay where we are, if we draw and Blackpool win will increase their distance from us.

If all the sequences for the next 2 games stay with everything as it is then it will be in our hands. But the chances everything staying as it is like right now for 2 weeks is not likely.

[Window Cleaner]

i suppose it depends on what game you consider our game in hand' date=' i assume it is watford away which is going to be tough[/quote']

 

Yes if is a big if to be sure but it still doesn't go down to goal difference in those circumstances.

Sheff U -Blackpool is equally tough for them as are their games against Reading and Swansea and all their games against fellow relegation candidates.I see us being above Blackpool at the end of the season as long as we beat them at their place.

[Window Cleaner]

i suppose it depends on what game you consider our game in hand' date=' i assume it is watford away which is going to be tough[/quote']

 

Yes if is a big if to be sure but it still doesn't go down to goal difference in those circumstances.

 

The point of the thread is that our survival is in our own hands which it is if we win more games than Blackpool and Forest. all the rest is speculation and mathematics.

[Whitey Grandad]

Survival is in our own hands. All that we have to do (!) is win our game in hand at Watford, then either beat Forest on the last day and also match or better the results of Norwich and the other games of Forest or do the same with regard to Blackpool instead of Forest.

[St Marco]

Survival is in our own hands. All that we have to do (!) is win our game in hand at Watford, then either beat Forest on the last day and also match or better the results of Norwich and the other games of Forest or do the same with regard to Blackpool instead of Forest.

 

Again see above

 

Survival is not in our own hands. We need to win and hope others lose.

 

IF

 

We get to the Blackpool,Charlton,Watford period as the table is now THEN survival is in our own hands. We have to get through Derby and QPR with the table looking the same as it is now. If the table looks different the circumstances change. If we win the 2 games and others lose we will be out of the relegation zone before the period where we play Blackpool and have a game in hand. If we lose the two games and Blackpool gain just 1 point before playing us will mean they have to lose a game and we win against them and win our game in hand before we can overtake them. Again meaning we need another team to lose and us to win.

 

If we were to play Blackpool tomorrow then next weekend play our game in hand with Blackpool not playing at all only then would we go above them IF we won those games. But as im trying to point out and people seem to be ignoring is that there are 24 games in the league to be played before now and then. The odds that the table will stay as it is with 24 games being played is next to no chance. By the time we get to the Blackpool game the league will look different, we could be out of the drop zone by then, making the Blackpool game not as important as it will be if we lose the next 2 games.

Or if we lost both those games we could find ourselves 9 points adrift of the safety zone, again meaning we would need teams to lose.

 

Your whole theory revolves around us playing Blackpool tomorrow and then playing our game in hand while nobody else plays at all.

[Under Weststand]

The only time it will be in our own hands is when we are out of the bottom three & everyone's played the same amount of games. Then you can say its in our own hands. At present we are still relying on other results. I did the predictor yesterday & tried to be as honest as possible, & got us staying up on 51-points with a 1-1 draw at Forest sending them Down & keeping us up. Hope I'm wrong & were safe before that don't want Squeaky B*m time again. But at present it certainly isn't in our own hands. I guess the likes of Blackpool,Watford Forest all with home games against us are all probably saying the same thing & predicting home wins against us. That scenario doesn't bear thinking about does it.

[Tomobz]

Again see above

 

Survival is not in our own hands. We need to win and hope others lose.

 

IF

 

We get to the Blackpool,Charlton,Watford period as the table is now THEN survival is in our own hands. We have to get through Derby and QPR with the table looking the same as it is now. If the table looks different the circumstances change. If we win the 2 games and others lose we will be out of the relegation zone before the period where we play Blackpool and have a game in hand. If we lose the two games and Blackpool gain just 1 point before playing us will mean they have to lose a game and we win against them and win our game in hand before we can overtake them. Again meaning we need another team to lose and us to win.

 

If we were to play Blackpool tomorrow then next weekend play our game in hand with Blackpool not playing at all only then would we go above them IF we won those games. But as im trying to point out and people seem to be ignoring is that there are 24 games in the league to be played before now and then. The odds that the table will stay as it is with 24 games being played is next to no chance. By the time we get to the Blackpool game the league will look different, we could be out of the drop zone by then, making the Blackpool game not as important as it will be if we lose the next 2 games.

Or if we lost both those games we could find ourselves 9 points adrift of the safety zone, again meaning we would need teams to lose.

 

Your whole theory revolves around us playing Blackpool tomorrow and then playing our game in hand while nobody else plays at all.

 

You really are missing the point, if we win every game in we stay up mathematically. It doesn't matter when we play anyone. It is in our hands.

[krissyboy31]

You really are missing the point, if we win every game in we stay up mathematically. It doesn't matter when we play anyone. It is in our hands.

 

I'm pretty damn sure that if any team (and that includes Charlton) won all the rest of their games, they would stay up.

[Whitey Grandad]

Again see above

 

Survival is not in our own hands. We need to win and hope others lose.

 

IF

 

We get to the Blackpool,Charlton,Watford period as the table is now THEN survival is in our own hands. We have to get through Derby and QPR with the table looking the same as it is now. If the table looks different the circumstances change. If we win the 2 games and others lose we will be out of the relegation zone before the period where we play Blackpool and have a game in hand. If we lose the two games and Blackpool gain just 1 point before playing us will mean they have to lose a game and we win against them and win our game in hand before we can overtake them. Again meaning we need another team to lose and us to win.

 

If we were to play Blackpool tomorrow then next weekend play our game in hand with Blackpool not playing at all only then would we go above them IF we won those games. But as im trying to point out and people seem to be ignoring is that there are 24 games in the league to be played before now and then. The odds that the table will stay as it is with 24 games being played is next to no chance. By the time we get to the Blackpool game the league will look different, we could be out of the drop zone by then, making the Blackpool game not as important as it will be if we lose the next 2 games.

Or if we lost both those games we could find ourselves 9 points adrift of the safety zone, again meaning we would need teams to lose.

 

Your whole theory revolves around us playing Blackpool tomorrow and then playing our game in hand while nobody else plays at all.

Not at all. Assuming that we beat Watford in our game-in hand, then providing that we do no worse than Norwich over the other games we have to beat either Forest or Blackpool and match (or better) their other results. It doesn't matter in which order we acheive this provided that our points total from those other games is at least as good as Forest's (or Blackpool's). Forest also have to travel to Blackpool (13th April) so if we beat Forest and Blackpool then we need to better either of the totals of their other games. Of course if both Forest and Blackpool win all their other games then it would probably mean that we would have to win all ours, unless Forest win at Blackpool. If either Forest or Blackpool drop points over the rest of the season, then we can 'afford' to do the same (provided Norwich don't go on a run). Whatever, if we win all our games then we will undoubtedly be safe.

[wightman35]

Ideally, we need to win our next five games. After that, the palpitations might ease off.........

[Calvin]

Giggity giggity!

[forever a red and white]

we must beat watford, drags them down and keeps things close, everyone seems to be picking up results, we can;t let it drp.

 

We can definatly do it, but can this team really play with promotion form until the end of the season after 25-30 games of c-rap

[Wes Tender]

we must beat watford, drags them down and keeps things close, everyone seems to be picking up results, we can;t let it drp.

 

We can definatly do it, but can this team really play with promotion form until the end of the season after 25-30 games of c-rap

 

No.

[Snowballs2]

The real question is do we have the players for it, and, if not who is at fault. After yet another BWP fiasco are the players really ionterested

[CB Fry]

You really are missing the point, if we win every game in we stay up mathematically. It doesn't matter when we play anyone. It is in our hands.

 

 

If that is "the point" it's a pretty dopey one. We're not going to win every single game and neither is anyone else, including Wolves and Reading etc.

 

I'm with Marco - it isn't in our own hands because we desperately need others to lose.

 

It's amazing that with what we've gone through recently - three wins in a row and still firmly in the bottom threee - that people still make predictions where we win and everyone else just stands still.

 

It's not in our hands, we need others to lose, and quickly.

[rallyboy]

Tonight is MASSIVE and could be a turning point as others have tough fixtures as well - an opportunity to close the gap.

 

If we win, the message it sends out piles huge pressure on our fellow strugglers.

It would be the end of the world for Charlton and possibly Norwich.

 

Saints would be seen as a club with momentum, no one would want to come to the cauldron of St Marys, and for the Blackpool and Forest fixtures it would be like having the league leaders come to your place. (ish!)

 

As for the Watford game, the original date was when we had no idea who to play or where, and we would have got a pasting.

 

BUT if we do get something there and it is enough to keep us up, we may wish to reflect that the snow did us a huge favour.

Little things change seasons.

[Deano6]

If West Ham won all the rest of their games til the end of the season and everyone above them lost, they would win the Premiership.

 

So what?

[SaintRobbie]

 

Be quiet though as it's an upsetting thought for those who'd rather see the club relegated than Lowe book a place in the boardroom for another season. Strange fans.

 

Keep Lowe even if we stay up? lol after his long history of incompetence? LOL LOL LOL LOL ... you're on another planet 19 lol

 

Stay up or go down we want him out. If he stays do you forsee success in the CCC?

 

I dont.

[sperm_john]

has anyone noticed that norwich could be relegated by ipswich at the end of the season and portman road??? atleast we arent potentially getting relegated by the skates! my m8s a norwich fan and hes about to cry if that happens...

[Ponty]

If West Ham won all the rest of their games til the end of the season and everyone above them lost, they would win the Premiership.

 

So what?

Has anyone checked this speculative post to see if it is indeed a fact?

[Whitey Grandad]

Has anyone checked this speculative post to see if it is indeed a fact?

I've just had a quick look and amazingly it could be true! West Ham would have 69 points and there aren't many games left between the teams at present at the top where Man U have 65. Of course the other teams aren't all going to lose all their games but with a freak set of results it could be possible. Am I sad, or what?

[Ponty]

I've just had a quick look and amazingly it could be true! West Ham would have 69 points and there aren't many games left between the teams at present at the top where Man U have 65. Of course the other teams aren't all going to lose all their games but with a freak set of results it could be possible. Am I sad, or what?

 

Not at all. Thanks for checking.

[Alanh]

If that is "the point" it's a pretty dopey one. We're not going to win every single game and neither is anyone else, including Wolves and Reading etc.

 

I'm with Marco - it isn't in our own hands because we desperately need others to lose.

 

It's amazing that with what we've gone through recently - three wins in a row and still firmly in the bottom threee - that people still make predictions where we win and everyone else just stands still.

 

It's not in our hands, we need others to lose, and quickly.

 

It is still in our own hands because we have the opportunity to get more points that at least two other teams by winning our game in hand and beating them (Blackpool and Forest). Obviously we also have to match or better their points tally across the other remaining games but that's not unreasonable given we have similar records across the season so far.

 

Obviously this will mean that the season will go down to the wire and nothing is definitive yet, but in terms of looking for a strategy for the team this one seems pretty sound.