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Our Chances?


Mr X

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i want us to win the JPT, get to the play offs and win them, and win the FA cup ...and pompey to get relegated, and a suprise announcement for southampton to be a world cup host city and add another tier to one of our stands, with nicola cortese proclaiming on the radio 'southampton has a population circa 250 k people' a 32,000 seater stadium isnt enough ....only then will i be happy ;)

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Anyone that thinks mid table is satisfactory progress needs to look again. For us now to remain where we currently are(12th and mid table) would mean a collapse in form from now til May. I won't be happy with anything below 6th and 4th is possible.

 

We are still only 19 points behind Charlton with 23 games to go... Now, catching them would require us to get a point a game more than them but... as Nike would say, nothing is impossible!!! ;)

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Anyone that thinks mid table is satisfactory progress needs to look again. For us now to remain where we currently are(12th and mid table) would mean a collapse in form from now til May. I won't be happy with anything below 6th and 4th is possible.

 

12th would be a disappointment, but I think upper midtable is reasonable.

 

We started 10 points behind the rest of the league. We are now halfway through the season, so you could say that come the end of the season, we expect to be level with teams 5 points ahead of us now (all hypothetical of course). 5 points ahead of us is currently Millwall in 9th.

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Anyone that thinks mid table is satisfactory progress needs to look again. For us now to remain where we currently are(12th and mid table) would mean a collapse in form from now til May. I won't be happy with anything below 6th and 4th is possible.

 

I admire the ambition - but if we just miss out on the playoffs i'd still be pretty satisfied with this season.

 

If you think back to the game against Swindon and what we had back then it's been a very quick turnaround.

 

This season has always been about ''rebuilding'' and any bonuses that come along - let's hope that the playoffs and the JPT are those bonuses...but it certainly isn't the end of the world if we don't quite manage it.

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Yes, Yes, Yes.

 

Seven points and 20 odd games to go...

 

We should be very disappointed if we don't make the play-offs mimumum.

 

We have spent a huge sum of money and the Chairman will expect a return - so do I!!!

 

Dissapointed but should we be calling for pardews head? i think not

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12th would be a disappointment, but I think upper midtable is reasonable.

 

We started 10 points behind the rest of the league. We are now halfway through the season, so you could say that come the end of the season, we expect to be level with teams 5 points ahead of us now (all hypothetical of course). 5 points ahead of us is currently Millwall in 9th.

 

Let's say for some reason that Schumacher has to start the first race of next season from the pit lane. If after 32 laps of a 60 lap race he has made up 10 places and lies a few minutes off the guy in third, do you think it would be ok for him to aim to finish 7th or 8th because he had a bit of a handicap to start with?

 

Never settle for mediocrity my friend.

 

Our failing in life is not that we set our targets too high and miss them, but that we set them too low and meet them...

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I would say we are relatively even with Norwich (based on the last 2 meetings), so a couple more additions in January and we can certainly make the play-offs. Just 7 points from a possible 66 to make up.

 

I would be disappointed if we didn't make the play-offs, but in the summer I would have taken anything.

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1) Can we make the playoffs?

 

2) Do you think we will?

 

3) Do we need to make the playoffs for you to be happy or is mid table satisfactory progress considering the ten point deduction?

 

1) Yes of course.

 

2) Yes L1 is very poor and we have a decent CCC team right now.

 

3) Finish below 6th and season is a failure.

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1) Yes of course.

 

2) Yes L1 is very poor and we have a decent CCC team right now.

Really? With Leeds, Charlton, Norwich and ourselves I would say it is one of the best and most competitive league ones for years. Chuck in teams like MK Dons who are well funded and decent sides like Colchester/Huddersfield and there are some good footballing sides who could give most Championship clubs a game.

3) Finish below 6th and season is a failure.

 

I agree below 6th would be a failure and I don't think the manager or Chairman would disagree.

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Let's say for some reason that Schumacher has to start the first race of next season from the pit lane. If after 32 laps of a 60 lap race he has made up 10 places and lies a few minutes off the guy in third, do you think it would be ok for him to aim to finish 7th or 8th because he had a bit of a handicap to start with?

 

Never settle for mediocrity my friend.

 

Our failing in life is not that we set our targets too high and miss them, but that we set them too low and meet them...

 

Yes.

 

That example highlights the problem we now have. We have overtaken the Force Indias, Campos Metas and Torro Rossos in the first few laps. We've now got to overtake Red Bulls, McLaren's and Ferraris, which are almost as quick, and sometimes quicker than our Mercedes. (I assume you mean seconds, not minutes.)

 

Check out Mark Webber in this year's Bahrain Grand Prix:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Bahrain_Grand_Prix

 

P.S. I am not setting my target's low. At the risk of being a pedant, I don't have any targets, because I'm not playing. I HOPE we can make the play offs, but I'd be happy with say 8th or 9th. There is a difference between our targets and what we expect to acheive.

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1) Can we make the playoffs?

 

2) Do you think we will?

 

3) Do we need to make the playoffs for you to be happy or is mid table satisfactory progress considering the ten point deduction?

 

it's a possibility

 

Depends on other teams rather than ourselves

 

Depends if our final result + 10 pints would have given us automatic promotion

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Yes.

 

That example highlights the problem we now have. We have overtaken the Force Indias, Campos Metas and Torro Rossos in the first few laps. We've now got to overtake Red Bulls, McLaren's and Ferraris, which are almost as quick, and sometimes quicker than our Mercedes. (I assume you mean seconds, not minutes.)

 

Check out Mark Webber in this year's Bahrain Grand Prix:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Bahrain_Grand_Prix

 

For fear of pushing the anaology too far, our car is far superior to all but three ahead of us, and even then it is technically superior to all but one car. There is no doubt it will get harder to move up, but 7 points from 23 games left??

 

And you think that's too big a chasm to breach? Genuinely??

 

Or simply don't want to feel the pain of failure?

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I agree below 6th would be a failure and I don't think the manager or Chairman would disagree.

 

Top 6 should consist of Leeds, Charlton, Norwich, Saints + 2 from Colchester, Huddersfield, MKD's, Millwall, Swindon, BR (My money would be on Huddersfield and Colchester)

 

We have a very strong squad and will improve again in Jan window - missing out on the top 6 will be a MASSIVE failure.

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For fear of pushing the anaology too far, our car is far superior to all but three ahead of us, and even then it is technically superior to all but one car. There is no doubt it will get harder to move up, but 7 points from 23 games left??

 

And you think that's too big a chasm to breach? Genuinely??

 

Or simply don't want to feel the pain of failure?

 

I don't think we're all THAT good. A playoff quality team, but we need to be top two quality to make the playoffs. I don't think we're as good as Leeds or Norwich yet.

 

I'm not afraid of failure, I just wouldn't consider it a failure.

 

I don't think it's too big a chasm to breach, I just think it is unlikely.

 

7 points in 23 games doesn't sound a lot, but we've only made up 3 in our last 23 games.

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I HOPE we can make the play offs, but I'd be happy with say 8th or 9th. There is a difference between our targets and what we expect to acheive.

 

For Saints to now come 8th or 9th would mean a massive drop in form and losing alot of games to teams in a very poor league. I see no reason why current form will not continue. If this form is maintained then Saints will easily get 6th and perhaps higher.

 

Maybe when we we first hit with -10 before the takeover/Pardew/new squad happened we would have all been happy with 9th. But when you now look at the Saints squad and the rest of the league they really should be extremely disappointed if they don't make the playoffs this season. Add to that the possibility of Mr Liebherr opening his wallet again in January and I'm very confident ;) :D

 

Arizona you need to cheer up :D

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I don't see how there can be any doubt that we CAN make the playoffs now. Look at the teams in 5th and 6th: MKDons: inconsistent, pretty average team; Huddersfield, fantastic home record, but crap away record probably says more about their true quality. I don't think these teams, or any of those between us and them, will avoid dropping a fair few points over the rest of the season. So if we keep playing the way we are, and winning, we have every chance.

 

We definitely ought to make the playoffs: we should be favorites to finish in 5th or 6th at this point, given our squad and form, especially if we strengthen in Jan. And this is the year to do it: expectations starting off were low, but next year they'll be high, and what are the chances, do you imagine, that we can keep the likes of Lambert, Connolly, Hammond, Lallana, Schneiderlin this summer if we're still in L1 next season?

 

Because we so clearly can and should make the playoffs, and because we're likely to lose some of our best players if we don't win promotion, I'll be disappointed if we don't go up at season's end.

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For Saints to now come 8th or 9th would mean a massive drop in form and losing alot of games to teams in a very poor league. I see no reason why current form will not continue. If this form is maintained then Saints will easily get 6th and perhaps higher.

 

Maybe when we we first hit with -10 before the takeover/Pardew/new squad happened we would have all been happy with 9th. But when you now look at the Saints squad and the rest of the league they really should be extremely disappointed if they don't make the playoffs this season. Add to that the possibility of Mr Liebherr opening his wallet again in January and I'm very confident ;) :D

 

Arizona you need to cheer up :D

 

I'm cheerful enough, infact I am more cheerful because I don't need to make the playoffs to achieve satisfaction. :D

 

I am delighted with watching Saints at the moment, it's great. We aren't arguing about that however, we're arguing about mathematic probability. If every team continues their first half of the season form in the second half, we will end up 9th. On 66 points, level with Millwall but with a superior goal difference.

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If every team continues their first half of the season form in the second half, we will end up 9th. On 66 points, level with Millwall but with a superior goal difference.

 

Saints season really started after about 10 games when everything started to click. Remember we had a bumpy preseason with loads of new players, a new manager late in the summer etc etc. Look at the form from 10 league games onwards and if they maintain that Saints will end up 4th or 5th.

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missing out on top 6 would be disappointing yes but massive failure, no! When you consider where we were at the start of the season, top 10 seemed a long way off. We are in touching distance now of the playoffs, and with January transfer window coming up id like to think we can push on but we will have to maintain our form and hope that teams above slip up.

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I'm cheerful enough, infact I am more cheerful because I don't need to make the playoffs to achieve satisfaction. :D

 

I am delighted with watching Saints at the moment, it's great. We aren't arguing about that however, we're arguing about mathematic probability. If every team continues their first half of the season form in the second half, we will end up 9th. On 66 points, level with Millwall but with a superior goal difference.

 

In the 1st half of the season we lost 5 and drew 8. We will not lose or draw as many in the 2nd half.

 

If we do then we will have to dig deep for excuses!

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Leeds, Norwich, Charlton and Colchester have a winning mentality like us and will be hard to catch.

However a 5th or 6th place finish looks possible.To go up we would still have to probably beat two of those clubs and to do so I think we need more strength in depth.

 

We have got away with it to date, but do suffer from spells when we appear to let the opposition dominate. Even Wycombe and Exeter have had long spells dominating games against us.This cannot happen should we get into play off games.

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By my rough & ready maths, based on teams maintaining their form from the last 8 games for the 2nd half of the season, Saints would finish 6th. You need to take into account that we have to play all the teams above us again, starting with the next 3 league games being Colchester ( away ),Huddersfield ( home ), and Millwall ( away ). Also, if we are in with a shout going into the last few games, we should be capable of a really good final burst, as we finish with Yeovil, Carlisle, Gillingham, and Southend.

 

So, not being overly optimistic, I think it's a yes, YES, YES !!!

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In the 1st half of the season we lost 5 and drew 8. We will not lose or draw as many in the 2nd half.

 

If we do then we will have to dig deep for excuses!

 

There are half a dosen good teams competing for the last 2 playoff spots. We are 14 behind Colchester in 4th, even if we win there on Monday, I still think that IS beyond our reach.

 

If a couple of those teams put in a winning streak, it doesn't matter how good we are, we'd not be able to overtake them. It's also naive to think we wont go through some form of rough patch in the second half of the season. I doubt it will be 1 win in 10 like we had at the start of the season, but there will be a blip in form of some description. Even Chelsea and Man Utd go through patched of 1 win in 6, 3 wins in 10 etc.

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Leeds, Norwich, Charlton and Colchester have a winning mentality like us and will be hard to catch.

However a 5th or 6th place finish looks possible.To go up we would still have to probably beat two of those clubs and to do so I think we need more strength in depth.

 

We have got away with it to date, but do suffer from spells when we appear to let the opposition dominate. Even Wycombe and Exeter have had long spells dominating games against us.This cannot happen should we get into play off games.

 

but teams dominate against Leeds and Charlton as well nut like you said they win irrespective of how they play

and so are we this season

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There are half a dosen good teams competing for the last 2 playoff spots. We are 14 behind Colchester in 4th, even if we win there on Monday, I still think that IS beyond our reach.

 

If a couple of those teams put in a winning streak, it doesn't matter how good we are, we'd not be able to overtake them. It's also naive to think we wont go through some form of rough patch in the second half of the season. I doubt it will be 1 win in 10 like we had at the start of the season, but there will be a blip in form of some description. Even Chelsea and Man Utd go through patched of 1 win in 6, 3 wins in 10 etc.

 

We will possibly have a blip - so will everyone. Our form last 10/15 games is superb, I see no reason why we would started dropping points in volume.

 

7 points is nothing - we could be 4 points behind in a few days.

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We will possibly have a blip - so will everyone. Our form last 10/15 games is superb, I see no reason why we would started dropping points in volume.

 

7 points is nothing - we could be 4 points behind in a few days.

 

And then 6 points behind if we drew the next, then back to 9 if we lose the game after that, then back to 7 if we win the next two and they draw one... all hypothetical.

 

I've said all I have to say on this thread. Just to recap:

 

1. Yes, we can make they playoffs

2. No I don't think we will

3. Yes we are a good team.

4. There are many other good teams above us, who will come close to matching our form.

5. No 7 points isn't a lot, but we've only made up 3 in half a season thus far.

7. Yes I do enjoy watching Saints this season.

8. Yes I missed out number 6.

9. No I am not being negative.

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1) Can we make the playoffs?

 

2) Do you think we will?

 

3) Do we need to make the playoffs for you to be happy or is mid table satisfactory progress considering the ten point deduction?

 

 

1. Hopefully yes.

 

2. Time is not quite on our side but in my opinion even no beef up in our squad, we can still make the play-offs. With signing better players in Jan, nobody know how strong can we be.

 

3. Of course. Do you like to see us playing two full seasons in League 1? Is making the play-offs but losing in the play-offs final still make you happy a better question?

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it took us 13 games to escape relegation. In just less than 13 more games, we are exactly mid table (7 points from relelgation, 7 points from play-offs).

There will be up ands downs this season - injuries & suspensions will have some impact.

(but) We should expect to be in a playoff position after 39 games.

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Yes we can make the playoffs, yep, I think we'll make it. I really how for Auto Promotion to pee off the Leeds mates I have - we'd have succeeded in bouncing back after relegation AND points deduction at the first attempt, they couldn't do it.

 

However, if we don't go up this season, then I think the target next season has to be either Title Winners or Auto Promotion.

 

Nothing like aiming high, is there? :)

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