The Burnham Years - Can the new(ish) broom sweep clean?

[revolution saint]

Anyone else think that when you come across someone constantly banging on about the left or the right that they're more obsessed with the tribal elements of politics than actual substance?

[Sir Ralph]

1 hour ago, revolution saint said:

Anyone else think that when you come across someone constantly banging on about the left or the right that they're more obsessed with the tribal elements of politics than actual substance?

Not really. Currently political decisions tend to be very much along the lines of traditional party values - ie left and right, hence why you get the comments. I think most people will support a policy, if they agree with it, regardless of party. For example I think illegal immigration Labour get a hard time in the context that the Tories were probably worse in dealing with it

Edited Friday at 09:27 by Sir Ralph

[Farmer Saint]

31 minutes ago, Sir Ralph said:

Not really. Currently political decisions tend to be very much along the lines of traditional party values - ie left and right, hence why you get the comments. I think most people will support a policy regardless of party. For example I think illegal immigration Labour get a hard time in the context that the Tories were probably worse in dealing with it

Well, you say that, but most income tax policies haven't changed for nearly 20 years, benefits haven't really changed significantly either. It's an odd one, but there is not much flexibility between Labour and Conservatives nowadays due to Brexit and a hugely hamstrung economy. The last time anyone tried to do anything big they crashed the economy.

What are the big differences in policy between left and right at the moment?

 

[LuckyNumber7]

46 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

Well, you say that, but most income tax policies haven't changed for nearly 20 years, benefits haven't really changed significantly either. It's an odd one, but there is not much flexibility between Labour and Conservatives nowadays due to Brexit and a hugely hamstrung economy. The last time anyone tried to do anything big they crashed the economy.

What are the big differences in policy between left and right at the moment?

 

Yes agree, there isn't a great deal of difference really between Labour and Tories, which is why not much changes regardless of who is in power. And I think that's why more and more people are turning to the more 'extreme' parties on both the left and right.

[Sir Ralph]

3 minutes ago, LuckyNumber7 said:

Yes agree, there isn't a great deal of difference really between Labour and Tories, which is why not much changes regardless of who is in power. And I think that's why more and more people are turning to the more 'extreme' parties on both the left and right.

This

[revolution saint]

20 minutes ago, Sir Ralph said:

This

I'm a little confused then.  You think "Currently political decisions tend to be very much along the lines of traditional party values - ie left and right,"
But you also think there's not much difference between labour and tory.

TBH I can't really be arsed, the whole left/right stuff bores the hell out of me and feels largely irrelevant.

[Osvaldorama]

7 minutes ago, revolution saint said:

I'm a little confused then.  You think "Currently political decisions tend to be very much along the lines of traditional party values - ie left and right,"
But you also think there's not much difference between labour and tory.

TBH I can't really be arsed, the whole left/right stuff bores the hell out of me and feels largely irrelevant.

Tories are left of centre.  
 

They pretended to be right of centre. 

[Farmer Saint]

42 minutes ago, Sir Ralph said:

This

So you're disagreeing with your previous statement then?

Edited Friday at 11:15 by Farmer Saint

[AlexLaw76]

[Osvaldorama]

[Osvaldorama]

[Sir Ralph]

11 hours ago, Farmer Saint said:

So you're disagreeing with your previous statement then?

No I think the most recent version of the Tories and Labour are similar. Slight variations but I wouldn’t describe the last version of the tories as being to the right

[Farmer Saint]

28 minutes ago, Sir Ralph said:

No I think the most recent version of the Tories and Labour are similar. Slight variations but I wouldn’t describe the last version of the tories as being to the right

Ok, so considering you rate us Labour voters as socialists and lefties, do you agree that all Tory supporters are the same then?

[Sir Ralph]

17 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

Ok, so considering you rate us Labour voters as socialists and lefties, do you agree that all Tory supporters are the same then?

That’s another gotcha question. The most recent version of the tories in government aren’t as bad as the labour government but they deteriorated in their adherence to conservative policies over time, hence why lots of Tory voters deserted them. By the time they left power they were unfortunately hooked on government spending and buying votes on this basis much like the current government. So no Tory voters aren’t socialist as ultimately they deserted them to closer they got to centre left policies. That’s why Badenoch is desperately trying to give the impression that the tories are returning to conservative roots to get their voters back

Edited Friday at 23:10 by Sir Ralph

[Farmer Saint]

20 minutes ago, Sir Ralph said:

That’s another gotcha question. The most recent version of the tories in government aren’t as bad as the labour government but they deteriorated in their adherence to conservative policies over time, hence why lots of Tory voters deserted them. By the time they left power they were unfortunately hooked on government spending and buying votes on this basis much like the current government. So no Tory voters aren’t socialist as ultimately they deserted them to closer they got to centre left policies. That’s why Badenoch is desperately trying to give the impression that the tories are returning to conservative roots to get their voters back

By imposing the same income taxes? Not sure her policies are that right? Still seem pretty similar to the Labour ones we've got now.

What would count as a right wing income tax policy in your opinion? No gotcha here, just interested to know what you count as a right wing tax policy, and what you think it would do for the country.

Edited Friday at 23:26 by Farmer Saint

[whelk]

20 hours ago, Osvaldorama said:

Thanks for sharing - wonder where all the Reform twats would be without their oh so funny memes? Expect you want a govt hand out to help you out. Any ideas about why fuel prices are rising? Probably even your limited intellect should be able to work it out.

[badgerx16]

13 minutes ago, whelk said:

Thanks for sharing - wonder where all the Reform twats would be without their oh so funny memes? Expect you want a govt hand out to help you out. Any ideas about why fuel prices are rising? Probably even your limited intellect should be able to work it out.

Bloody Burnham; failing to persuade Ukraine to cave in to Russian aggression, and failing to open the Strait of Hormuz.

Fucking Marxist.

Edited Saturday at 09:22 by badgerx16

[Farmer Saint]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmglw0r21zexo

Again, as I've consistently said this year, we are doing better than people are being told we are. To have this growth with the background interest rates and costs is pretty good.

[Osvaldorama]

2 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmglw0r21zexo

Again, as I've consistently said this year, we are doing better than people are being told we are. To have this growth with the background interest rates and costs is pretty good.

Absolutely fucking deluded 😂. 
 

£3 trillion in debt, bond yield at 6%, rampant food/energy inflation and the IMF telling us not to borrow more money and stop giving away free stuff.

 

Plus, makes me laugh that yesterday you were saying how Brexit is harmful yet today you’re claiming we are doing better than the EU. 

[Farmer Saint]

10 minutes ago, Osvaldorama said:

Absolutely fucking deluded 😂. 
 

£3 trillion in debt, bond yield at 6%, rampant food/energy inflation and the IMF telling us not to borrow more money and stop giving away free stuff.

 

Plus, makes me laugh that yesterday you were saying how Brexit is harmful yet today you’re claiming we are doing better than the EU. 

Where have I mentioned the EU? Bond yield is not good, I agree, but it's still not affecting the economy.

£3trillion debt is kind of irrelevant - it should always be done as a percentage of GDP:

 

G7 Country Government Debt (% of GDP)

Japan 214.49% – 236.66%

Italy 135.33% – 137.10%

United States 122.27% – 123.70%

France 113.11% – 115.60%

Canada 110.02%

United Kingdom 99.90%

Germany 63.50% – 63.89%

Edited yesterday at 09:59 by Farmer Saint

[Osvaldorama]

25 minutes ago, Farmer Saint said:

Where have I mentioned the EU? Bond yield is not good, I agree, but it's still not affecting the economy.

£3trillion debt is kind of irrelevant - it should always be done as a percentage of GDP:

 

G7 Country Government Debt (% of GDP)

Japan 214.49% – 236.66%

Italy 135.33% – 137.10%

United States 122.27% – 123.70%

France 113.11% – 115.60%

Canada 110.02%

United Kingdom 99.90%

Germany 63.50% – 63.89%

“Bond yields not affecting the economy” 

😂😂😂 add this to your growing portfolio of ever more ridiculous comments. 
 

Stop pretending that you have a clue what you’re talking about 

[Farmer Saint]

7 minutes ago, Osvaldorama said:

“Bond yields not affecting the economy” 

😂😂😂 add this to your growing portfolio of ever more ridiculous comments. 
 

Stop pretending that you have a clue what you’re talking about 

Sorry, I should have said it's not unduly affecting economic growth - I dumbed it down for you.

So do you think without the increase in bond yields we'd see Labour doing significantly better with it's economic growth then?

[Farmer Saint]

9 minutes ago, Osvaldorama said:

“Bond yields not affecting the economy” 

😂😂😂 add this to your growing portfolio of ever more ridiculous comments. 
 

Stop pretending that you have a clue what you’re talking about 

Also, where did I mention the EU...I'll wait for your answer on this one.

[Osvaldorama]

Labour came to power warning of a £22bn black hole.

Since then they have:

❌ Put taxes up by around £70bn
❌ Borrowed another £310bn

And now, after taking more of your money AND borrowing hundreds of billions more…

…there is apparently another £35bn black hole.

At what point do we admit the problem isn’t that Government doesn’t have enough money?

It’s that Government cannot control its spending.

You cannot tax your way to growth.

You cannot borrow your way out of overspending

[Gloucester Saint]

The Ukraine war, and subsequent additional Iran war by Kushner and Trump in parallel have shoved up the cost of borrowing from the pandemic years far beyond anything Sunak, Starmer, Hunt and Reeves did. Truss and Kwarteng poured petrol on it but it was still only a segment of the overall picture given Hunt cleared up all the IEA’s projectile vomit.

Austerity didn’t decrease the debt 2010-15, flattened growth, squashed public services, and will only push lower earners onto UC with more PSRB impact.

The welfare bill needs to come down, we all agree on that at least, which includes the triple lock. The economy isn’t doing badly in isolation but the wider indicators are 1970s-esque because of the two parallel wars, limited straits access, Houthi attacks on Saudi, and nervousness around global instability. Trump getting blocked in next month would help matters as Congress could pull them out of Kushner and Mad Ben’s war. 

Edited yesterday at 11:26 by Gloucester Saint

[Osvaldorama]

32 minutes ago, Gloucester Saint said:

The Ukraine war, and subsequent additional Iran war by Kushner and Trump in parallel have shoved up the cost of borrowing from the pandemic years far beyond anything Sunak, Starmer, Hunt and Reeves did. Truss and Kwarteng poured petrol on it but it was still only a segment of the overall picture given Hunt cleared up all the IEA’s projectile vomit.

Austerity didn’t decrease the debt 2010-15, flattened growth, squashed public services, and will only push lower earners onto UC with more PSRB impact.

The welfare bill needs to come down, we all agree on that at least, which includes the triple lock. The economy isn’t doing badly in isolation but the wider indicators are 1970s-esque because of the two parallel wars, limited straits access, Houthi attacks on Saudi, and nervousness around global instability. Trump getting blocked in next month would help matters as Congress could pull them out of Kushner and Mad Ben’s war. 

“The economy isn’t doing badly” is all a matter of perspective

 

Edited yesterday at 11:56 by Osvaldorama

[Gloucester Saint]

‘In isolation’. Context. And just cut and pasting one metric of out of hundreds is GM territory. 

Gas prices and inflation are higher in the US than under Biden. EU, China and Japan also impacted significantly by the two wars in parallel. Again, context. And as multiple others have said, gold is a wildly mad comparator commodity to use. AI does need a lot of understanding of context to form a coherent perspective. 

Edited yesterday at 14:10 by Gloucester Saint

[Farmer Saint]

1 hour ago, Osvaldorama said:

Labour came to power warning of a £22bn black hole.

Since then they have:

❌ Put taxes up by around £70bn
❌ Borrowed another £310bn

And now, after taking more of your money AND borrowing hundreds of billions more…

…there is apparently another £35bn black hole.

At what point do we admit the problem isn’t that Government doesn’t have enough money?

It’s that Government cannot control its spending.

You cannot tax your way to growth.

You cannot borrow your way out of overspending

You not going to answer my questions then Osvaldo, again?

This week has not gone well for you on this forum has it? And that's a low bar to start from.

Edited yesterday at 12:10 by Farmer Saint

[Sheaf Saint]

7 minutes ago, Osvaldorama said:

“The economy isn’t doing badly” is all a matter of perspective

 

Yes it is, depending on what particular dataset you cherry pick to support your argument. Especially a measure as unreliable as gold.

[Farmer Saint]

31 minutes ago, Osvaldorama said:

“The economy isn’t doing badly” is all a matter of perspective

 

Does this account for inflation of gold? The value of gold has outstripped wages massively over that timeframe.

Since 1995 UK wages have risen 150%, gold has risen 1200%.

Again, with no context everything you post means nothing.

Edited yesterday at 12:27 by Farmer Saint

[Weston Super Saint]

2 hours ago, Osvaldorama said:

“The economy isn’t doing badly” is all a matter of perspective

 

Who comes up with this shit so you simpletons can lap it up?

Measuring GDP against a commodity market is insane.

You may as well compare GDP to the price of corn flakes since 1960.

 

[badgerx16]

4 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Who comes up with this shit so you simpletons can lap it up?

Measuring GDP against a commodity market is insane.

You may as well compare GDP to the price of corn flakes since 1960.

 

The measure always was to count in Mars bars, before shrinkflation took hold.

[Gloucester Saint]

40 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

The measure always was to count in Mars bars, before shrinkflation took hold.

What Mondelez did to Toblerone is far worse though!

[Osvaldorama]

8 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Who comes up with this shit so you simpletons can lap it up?

Measuring GDP against a commodity market is insane.

You may as well compare GDP to the price of corn flakes since 1960.

 

Tell me you have no idea how the economy works without telling me 

[Whitey Grandad]

9 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

The measure always was to count in Mars bars, before shrinkflation took hold.

I thought it was McDonald's 

[Sheaf Saint]

8 hours ago, Osvaldorama said:

Tell me you have no idea how the economy works without telling me 

This could be the biggest self-own in Saintsweb history.

You're aware that British currency hasn't operated on a gold standard since 1931, right?

[Farmer Saint]

9 hours ago, Osvaldorama said:

Tell me you have no idea how the economy works without telling me 

You going to answer my questions, darling?

[Osvaldorama]

2 hours ago, Sheaf Saint said:

This could be the biggest self-own in Saintsweb history.

You're aware that British currency hasn't operated on a gold standard since 1931, right?

Of course. But how you measure debasement is inportant.
Gold is still held & used by central banks at the settlement layer. 

It’s not a 100% reliable indicator, but it’s one of the best ways to show the decline in purchasing power over time. 

[Wade Garrett]

21 hours ago, Gloucester Saint said:

The Ukraine war, and subsequent additional Iran war by Kushner and Trump in parallel have shoved up the cost of borrowing from the pandemic years far beyond anything Sunak, Starmer, Hunt and Reeves did. Truss and Kwarteng poured petrol on it but it was still only a segment of the overall picture given Hunt cleared up all the IEA’s projectile vomit.

Austerity didn’t decrease the debt 2010-15, flattened growth, squashed public services, and will only push lower earners onto UC with more PSRB impact.

The welfare bill needs to come down, we all agree on that at least, which includes the triple lock. The economy isn’t doing badly in isolation but the wider indicators are 1970s-esque because of the two parallel wars, limited straits access, Houthi attacks on Saudi, and nervousness around global instability. Trump getting blocked in next month would help matters as Congress could pull them out of Kushner and Mad Ben’s war. 

Think that's a pretty fair summary of where we are.  We can't do too much about the wars, but domestically, we could do so much more to reduce welfare costs and grow the economy.  Tough road ahead, even tougher if we don't make the right decisions.

 

[Wade Garrett]

19 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Who comes up with this shit so you simpletons can lap it up?

Measuring GDP against a commodity market is insane.

You may as well compare GDP to the price of corn flakes since 1960.

 

I think they've made the corn flakes boxes smaller as well.  Bastards.

[Sheaf Saint]

17 minutes ago, Osvaldorama said:

Of course. But how you measure debasement is inportant.
Gold is still held & used by central banks at the settlement layer. 

It’s not a 100% reliable indicator, but it’s one of the best ways to show the decline in purchasing power over time. 

Not 100% reliable? It's not reliable at all.

The graph you shared only serves to show how the value of paper/digital currency has become detached from the value of finite assets over time, and bears no relationship whatsoever to the trends in overall productivity or purchasing power of everyday goods and services. 

What's more, the trend in that graph would be pretty much identical for all other advanced economies as well. So using that as a stick to beat the UK with is just absurd and suggests that, once again, you've just re-posted something you've seen elsewhere that fits your narrative without actually bothering to understand it properly.

[iansums]

2 hours ago, Wade Garrett said:

I think they've made the corn flakes boxes smaller as well.  Bastards.

Please can you give the exact dimensions of the boxes to back up this ridiculous claim?

[Osvaldorama]

2 hours ago, Sheaf Saint said:

Not 100% reliable? It's not reliable at all.

The graph you shared only serves to show how the value of paper/digital currency has become detached from the value of finite assets over time, and bears no relationship whatsoever to the trends in overall productivity or purchasing power of everyday goods and services. 

What's more, the trend in that graph would be pretty much identical for all other advanced economies as well. So using that as a stick to beat the UK with is just absurd and suggests that, once again, you've just re-posted something you've seen elsewhere that fits your narrative without actually bothering to understand it properly.

Yea, all fiat currencies are trending to zero. 
 

That’s the only part in your post which you got correct. Well done for trying, though 

Edited 4 hours ago by Osvaldorama

[Holmes_and_Watson]

24 minutes ago, Osvaldorama said:

Yea, all fiat currencies are trending to zero. 
 

That’s the only part in your post which you got correct. Well done for trying, though 

Remember: Downward trending fiats can be dangerous.

[Farmer Saint]

30 minutes ago, Osvaldorama said:

Yea, all fiat currencies are trending to zero. 
 

That’s the only part in your post which you got correct. Well done for trying, though 

This guy, eh? 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 

[Osvaldorama]

7 minutes ago, Holmes_and_Watson said:

Remember: Downward trending fiats can be dangerous.

 

UK GDP in 1975. £115 billion.

UK GDP now. £3.04 trillion.

That is up 2,555 percent. In pounds.

In gold. Down 55 percent. From 28 ounces a head in 1975. Peak 101 ounces in 1999. Now 13 ounces.

They printed/borrowed the money. They issued the credit. The number went up. The output did not.

You work harder for less. Your wages buy less. Your house costs more. Your children will work harder for less than you.

That is not growth. That is theft. The chart shows it.

 

 

 

And no, gold isn’t an arbitrary commodity. It is seen as the safest store of value by central banks themselves, even now, in fiat/debt clown world. 

Edited 3 hours ago by Osvaldorama

[Sheaf Saint]

1 hour ago, Osvaldorama said:

Yea, all fiat currencies are trending to zero. 

Glad we agree on that.

So what was the point in you sharing that graph then? You were trying to make a point about the poor health of the UK economy, but if that particular trend is replicated for all other advanced economies then all it proves is that it's a global issue, rather than unique to the UK.

[Osvaldorama]

10 minutes ago, Sheaf Saint said:

Glad we agree on that.

So what was the point in you sharing that graph then? You were trying to make a point about the poor health of the UK economy, but if that particular trend is replicated for all other advanced economies then all it proves is that it's a global issue, rather than unique to the UK.

My overall point was that understanding how the economy is doing is a matter of perspective.
(Aka how you are measuring it.)

Measured in gold (and other hard assets), the average British person is being fucked over, and the country is declining as a result. 

From that perspective economy has been terribly managed for a long time. I disagree with Gloucester’s assessment that it’s doing well.

But also, GDP per capita has been stagnant for more than a decade. 

People can try and argue that “it’s global issue” all they like, and there is some merit in that. 

But the main reason for that is because all of the G7 have adopted the same stupid policies. (Eg driving energy costs up with ridiculous net zero policies and massive welfare spending.)

The UK has spent £1.1 trillion more on welfare benefits than critical infrastructure since 2006.

You can’t tax your way to growth. It must be nurtured and incentivised. 
 

[egg]

12 minutes ago, Osvaldorama said:

My overall point was that understanding how the economy is doing is a matter of perspective.
(Aka how you are measuring it.)

Measured in gold (and other hard assets), the average British person is being fucked over, and the country is declining as a result. 

From that perspective economy has been terribly managed for a long time. I disagree with Gloucester’s assessment that it’s doing well.

But also, GDP per capita has been stagnant for more than a decade. 

People can try and argue that “it’s global issue” all they like, and there is some merit in that. 

But the main reason for that is because all of the G7 have adopted the same stupid policies. (Eg driving energy costs up with ridiculous net zero policies and massive welfare spending.)

The UK has spent £1.1 trillion more on welfare benefits than critical infrastructure since 2006.

You can’t tax your way to growth. It must be nurtured and incentivised. 
 

As much as I agree that our economy is in trouble, and that welfare (pension included) needs addressing, the point can't be overlooked that big cuts could be counterproductive to the economy... welfare largely goes back into the economy...all sorts of societal issues with high numbers of people not able to meet needs and pay bills, including the rent...then the knock on impact of that. 

The call to cut welfare must come with restraint.