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Where are the 14 points we need coming from?


SaintBobby
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It's at about this stage of the season when I start being a total nerd with spreadsheets and trying to gaze into a crystal ball.

 

Likelihood is that 14 more points will secure survival.

 

My hand-on-heart projections for the remaining games are as follows:

 

BIRMINGHAM AWAY - LOSE

DERBY HOME - WIN

QPR HOME - DRAW

BLACKPOOL AWAY - DRAW

CHARLTON HOME - WIN

WATFORD AWAY - DRAW

WOLVES AWAY - LOSE

CRYSTAL PALACE HOME - WIN

SHEFF WED AWAY - LOSE

BURNLEY HOME - DRAW

NOTTM FOREST AWAY - DRAW

 

Total W 3 D 5 L 3 = 14 points

 

Gettin way ahead of myself here - but things might get interesting/weird if we go to the City Ground on the final day of the season with both Saints and Forest needing a point to guarantee safety - or possibly, say, one team needing to win and the other needing only to avoid defeat by a hatful of goals (echoes of Austria v West Germany in the 1982 World Cup, perhaps?)

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Who knows - but would you have given us 9 points out of the last 3 games. Funny old game, football.

 

God no. 4 at best. That's why I'm treating some of our games as "bonus" games - expect to lose and treat any points as a surprise. Definitely had Ipswich away in this category.

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It's at about this stage of the season when I start being a total nerd with spreadsheets and trying to gaze into a crystal ball.

 

Likelihood is that 14 more points will secure survival.

 

My hand-on-heart projections for the remaining games are as follows:

 

BIRMINGHAM AWAY - LOSE

DERBY HOME - WIN

QPR HOME - DRAW

BLACKPOOL AWAY - DRAW

CHARLTON HOME - WIN

WATFORD AWAY - DRAW

WOLVES AWAY - LOSE

CRYSTAL PALACE HOME - WIN

SHEFF WED AWAY - LOSE

BURNLEY HOME - DRAW

NOTTM FOREST AWAY - DRAW

 

Total W 3 D 5 L 3 = 14 points

 

Gettin way ahead of myself here - but things might get interesting/weird if we go to the City Ground on the final day of the season with both Saints and Forest needing a point to guarantee safety - or possibly, say, one team needing to win and the other needing only to avoid defeat by a hatful of goals (echoes of Austria v West Germany in the 1982 World Cup, perhaps?)

 

 

That is abosolute ********!!!!! You mean on paper we can not get 3 points at home against QPR and will lose to Wednesday which is the poorest team that I noticed when they played us last December??? Also why must we lose away at Brimingham and Wolves? We are the in form team at this moment should be Brimingham fears playing against us indeed.

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The rate teams at the bottom are picking up points, 14 will not be enough.

55 points could be what is required. 5 wins 3 draws and 3 defeats. Scary!

Just when Plymouth and Forest looked to be in a slump, they go out and win 2 games on a trot.

Now Blackpool and Barnsley are the out of form teams. These are the two I'm hoping will get cast adrift and our points tally wont need to be so high.

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The rate teams at the bottom are picking up points, 14 will not be enough.

Exactly what I was just about to say.

 

It's going to be so difficult to predict a "safety" target - even Wolves aren't mathematically safe from relegation at this stage of the season :shock: :lol: - and while teams at the bottom continue to pick up "surprise" points (arguably all three of our wins in the last two weeks have been completely against the form book), that safety target will continue to rise.

 

Leicester went down with 52 last season, which was an abnormally high total. This season, the teams fighting against relegation have pulled in more points per game than their counterparts last season.

 

07/08: http://stats.football365.com/2008/ENG/D1/tofeb.html

08/09: http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/ppgame.html

 

While this season's table is a few days and a couple of games more advanced, the points per game ratios are a pretty decent marker.

 

Norwich were 12th at this stage last season and dropped like a stone to only just be safe before the final day, so I'll use their position as the starting point:

 

Position - 07/08 - 08/09

12th - 1.32 - 1.37

13th - 1.33 - 1.33

14th - 1.23 - 1.31

15th - 1.20 - 1.29

16th - 1.20 - 1.23

17th - 1.21 - 1.16

18th - 1.18 - 1.14

19th - 1.14 - 1.14

20th - 1.08 - 1.11

21st - 1.08 - 1.08

22nd - 1.09 - 1.05

23rd - 0.96 - 1.00

24th - 0.94 - 0.77

 

Only once is the PPG lower this season compared to last - ironically our current position. Coventry stayed up by a point last season, and scored 1.15 points per game by the end of the season, showing that there is clearly an increase in the number of points struggling teams collect in the latter stages of the season.

 

I think 55 could well be a minimum safety figure, which would mean we need at least another 18 points from the last 11 games. Winning - or rather "not losing" - when we play other teams around us will be the key.

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Exactly what I was just about to say.

 

It's going to be so difficult to predict a "safety" target - even Wolves aren't mathematically safe from relegation at this stage of the season :shock: :lol: - and while teams at the bottom continue to pick up "surprise" points (arguably all three of our wins in the last two weeks have been completely against the form book), that safety target will continue to rise.

 

 

I think 55 could well be a minimum safety figure, which would mean we need at least another 18 points from the last 11 games. Winning - or rather "not losing" - when we play other teams around us will be the key.

 

Actually, to be a pedant - Wolves are mathemtically safe. It is true that if we win all our remaining games and they lose all theirs, then we will finish ahead of them, but they wouldn't be in the bottom three. (Because - amongst other things - if we win all our remaining games, this means Blackpool will lose to us and so they can't catch Wolves).

 

I still very much doubt the bar will be as high as 55 points. It's still really just a fraction over one point a game at the bottom of the table - and about 1.5 points per game should just about squeeze a team into the play offs. I think 55 points is probably the "maximum" rather than "minimum" safety figure. If ANY of the five teams above us average less than a point a game for the rest of the season (and it seems a fair bet that at least one of them will), then 49 might well be enough to stay up.

 

Put another way - if you offered me a final Saints tally of 52 points right now, I'd definitely take it. We might get relegated with that total, but it's very unlikely.

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BIRMINGHAM AWAY - LOSE

DERBY HOME - WIN

QPR HOME - DRAW

BLACKPOOL AWAY - DRAW

CHARLTON HOME - WIN

WATFORD AWAY - DRAW

WOLVES AWAY - LOSE

CRYSTAL PALACE HOME - WIN

SHEFF WED AWAY - LOSE

BURNLEY HOME - DRAW

NOTTM FOREST AWAY - DRAW

 

Tis most peculiar. I would have said before the Preston game, that our chance of survival would have come from stringing together wins against Blackpool, Charlton and Watford. Looking at recent form however, we should also be looking to beat the likes of QPR, Palace and even Wolves.

 

A colleague of mine said that every team in this league can beat every other team, but this season, we had been so poor I didn't think it possible. Now it seems, we have turned a corner, and if we can keep the positive run coming, I don't see why we can't survive.

 

My head still thinks the damage has been done. To win 3 on the bounce and still be in the zone shows how screwed we were. To lose at home to Forest before Christmas was, at the time I believed, the final nail in the coffin. Now however, we're playing football that dictates that we could go to Forest on the last day with a point to prove!

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Exactly what I was just about to say.

 

It's going to be so difficult to predict a "safety" target - even Wolves aren't mathematically safe from relegation at this stage of the season :shock: :lol: - and while teams at the bottom continue to pick up "surprise" points (arguably all three of our wins in the last two weeks have been completely against the form book), that safety target will continue to rise.

 

Leicester went down with 52 last season, which was an abnormally high total. This season, the teams fighting against relegation have pulled in more points per game than their counterparts last season.

 

07/08: http://stats.football365.com/2008/ENG/D1/tofeb.html

08/09: http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/ppgame.html

 

While this season's table is a few days and a couple of games more advanced, the points per game ratios are a pretty decent marker.

 

Norwich were 12th at this stage last season and dropped like a stone to only just be safe before the final day, so I'll use their position as the starting point:

 

Position - 07/08 - 08/09

12th - 1.32 - 1.37

13th - 1.33 - 1.33

14th - 1.23 - 1.31

15th - 1.20 - 1.29

16th - 1.20 - 1.23

17th - 1.21 - 1.16

18th - 1.18 - 1.14

19th - 1.14 - 1.14

20th - 1.08 - 1.11

21st - 1.08 - 1.08

22nd - 1.09 - 1.05

23rd - 0.96 - 1.00

24th - 0.94 - 0.77

 

Only once is the PPG lower this season compared to last - ironically our current position. Coventry stayed up by a point last season, and scored 1.15 points per game by the end of the season, showing that there is clearly an increase in the number of points struggling teams collect in the latter stages of the season.

 

I think 55 could well be a minimum safety figure, which would mean we need at least another 18 points from the last 11 games. Winning - or rather "not losing" - when we play other teams around us will be the key.

 

For any side currently on 40 points or less getting to 55 is a big ask actually.

If we were to do it we'd have to beat Blackpool,Forest and Watford thus making it far harder for them to do it. I can't see either ourselves,Norwich,Barnsley or Blackpool getting 55 points and I'd be pretty sceptical about Plymouth and Forest as well.

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The rate teams at the bottom are picking up points, 14 will not be enough.

55 points could be what is required. 5 wins 3 draws and 3 defeats. Scary!

Just when Plymouth and Forest looked to be in a slump, they go out and win 2 games on a trot.

Now Blackpool and Barnsley are the out of form teams. These are the two I'm hoping will get cast adrift and our points tally wont need to be so high.

 

Mick 55 points will be a record and in the past 15 years I think only once has a team been relegated on 52pts. It's Frustrating we are winning but not getting out of teh bottom 3 but whereas teams like Plymouth and Forest are winning as you say others are getting dragged in. This is best illustrated by that after the Preston game we were still effectvely 4 points adrift and 5 points from the dizzy heights of 18th. Now with a win on Saturday against a jittery Birmingham we could effectively leapfrog 4 teams and be in 18th. So even though after 3 wins we are in the bottom our overall situation has improved dramatically.

 

Our home against Derby looks the most difficult as they were unlucky last night and are as equally revitalised as ourselves. The rest of our run in looks fairly easy with the likes of QPR, Charlton, Palace (1 win in 9) all looking home bankers and Blackpool, Watford and Sheff Wed all there for the taking away from home. Win those 6 and we have 18 points and your 55 cut off.

 

With Burnley and Wolves wobbling the last game of the season against Forest could be irrelevant.

 

Should be fairly comfortable thanks to these 3 unexpected wins provided we all keep the faith and roll with the odd defeat.

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Well as usual most believe we will not achieve safety. Wins bread confidence, confidence gives results. 3 wins in a row makes us one of the inform sides and as such we go into the brum game with a point a prove. Brum were lucky to beat us in August. I would not be surprised to see three more wins, Brum, derby and QPR. We are playing well enough; the team has spirit; the players want to play for each other; for the team and more importantly for the manager.

Three more wins will put us on 46 points, just another 9 points from safety.

COYR

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Interesting the consensus view that we can beat Derby and only draw with QPR.

 

I think Derby at home on their current form will be tougher than the game on Saturday or any of those we've already played under Wotte. Still, taking the fixtures from Preston thru to Derby if we take 9pts from a possible 15pts I think we would have taken that at the start as bonus points and with the possible exception of Wolves all of the remaining 9 games look very winnable and you couldn't say that about the current run of 5 fixtures we are in.

 

Very confident we will be safe and probably after 44 games provided off the field pressures don't ruin the party.

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Interesting the consensus view that we can beat Derby and only draw with QPR.

 

I think Derby at home on their current form will be tougher than the game on Saturday or any of those we've already played under Wotte. Still, taking the fixtures from Preston thru to Derby if we take 9pts from a possible 15pts I think we would have taken that at the start as bonus points and with the possible exception of Wolves all of the remaining 9 games look very winnable and you couldn't say that about the current run of 5 fixtures we are in.

 

Very confident we will be safe and probably after 44 games provided off the field pressures don't ruin the party.

 

you just cant help yourself can you? ;)

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Well as usual most believe we will not achieve safety. Wins bread confidence, confidence gives results.

COYR

 

The bookies put us at about 11/10 to go down - so if anyone really is convinced that we're doomed, you can more than double your money by getting it down now.

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The bookies put us at about 11/10 to go down - so if anyone really is convinced that we're doomed, you can more than double your money by getting it down now.

 

Perhaps the club should have a £3 million quid punt on it then.

If we stay up we get the extra TV money and if we don't we get 3.3 million from the bookies. Sounds like a win/win situation to me:smt115:smt115:smt115

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To be realistic we'd have to say that of 11 games remaining we are most likely to Win 3, Draw 3, Lose 4 - yielding 49 points at season's end. This is about the win/draw/lose ratio we normally hit even when in form. As long as Blackpool & Norwich fare no better, we'll be OK

 

Realistic? Do you study form Charlie as you sound like a pessimistic woe is me pinsticker.

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BIRMINGHAM AWAY - LOSE

DERBY HOME - WIN

QPR HOME - DRAW

BLACKPOOL AWAY - WIN

CHARLTON HOME - WIN

WATFORD AWAY - LOSE

WOLVES AWAY - LOSE

CRYSTAL PALACE HOME - DRAW

SHEFF WED AWAY - LOSE

BURNLEY HOME - DRAW

NOTTM FOREST AWAY - WIN

 

My prediction is 15 more points taking us to 52 points. It's going to be close thats f'sure.

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The bottom line is none of us expected 9 points from the last 3 games, i expected 1 or 2 so bring on Brum on Saturday they are in poor form 1 win in 6 we can take them c'mon!!

 

I think we will get something from Birmingham be it a draw or win.

 

They play tonight and are looking a bit shaky at the moment.

 

 

COYR Keep it going

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The bottom line is none of us expected 9 points from the last 3 games, i expected 1 or 2 so bring on Brum on Saturday they are in poor form 1 win in 6 we can take them c'mon!!

 

Try the BBC predictor. Loads of teams play each other so I reckon we'll stay up on 50, 1 ahead of Blackpool and 2 Norwich. 2 behind Forest.

 

Have a go....

 

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_1/predictor/default.stm

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Why do we have to fear anyone. We are playing as well as anyone in the division. I bet Birmingham are nervous about playing us on Saturday. Get yourself up to St Andrews and give the lads the sort of loud support they deserve and we will come away with another 3 points. By the way I still hate Lowe ! COYR

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It's at about this stage of the season when I start being a total nerd with spreadsheets and trying to gaze into a crystal ball.

 

Likelihood is that 14 more points will secure survival.

 

My hand-on-heart projections for the remaining games are as follows:

 

BIRMINGHAM AWAY - LOSE

DERBY HOME - WIN

QPR HOME - DRAW

BLACKPOOL AWAY - DRAW

CHARLTON HOME - WIN

WATFORD AWAY - DRAW

WOLVES AWAY - LOSE

CRYSTAL PALACE HOME - WIN

SHEFF WED AWAY - LOSE

BURNLEY HOME - DRAW

NOTTM FOREST AWAY - DRAW

 

Total W 3 D 5 L 3 = 14 points

 

Gettin way ahead of myself here - but things might get interesting/weird if we go to the City Ground on the final day of the season with both Saints and Forest needing a point to guarantee safety - or possibly, say, one team needing to win and the other needing only to avoid defeat by a hatful of goals (echoes of Austria v West Germany in the 1982 World Cup, perhaps?)

 

Try 11 games left 33pts to play for, when we win them all we will have 70pts

Watford made the play offs last season on 70pts... :-)

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To be realistic we'd have to say that of 11 games remaining we are most likely to Win 3, Draw 3, Lose 4 - yielding 49 points at season's end. This is about the win/draw/lose ratio we normally hit even when in form. As long as Blackpool & Norwich fare no better, we'll be OK

 

IYO of course and your win 3, draw 3 and lose 4 only makes 10 games so what about the missed game ;) How many predicted our last three wins, after those results we are most likely to win 6 more games if anything. IMO there are quite a few winnable games, we have to make sure we do win these games. My predictions:

 

Birmingham: Draw

Derby: Win

QPR: Win

Blackpool:Win

Charlton: Win

Watford: Draw

Wolves: Lose

Palace: Win

Wednesday: Draw

Burnley: Draw

Forest: Draw

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forget number of points needed. If we accept Charlton are gone then we just need to match or better the number of points Norwich and Blackpool [and win our game in hand we have] can muster between now and the end of the season. Any thing on top of this is irrelevant, but a bonus.

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forget number of points needed. If we accept Charlton are gone then we just need to match or better the number of points Norwich and Blackpool [and win our game in hand we have] can muster between now and the end of the season. Any thing on top of this is irrelevant, but a bonus.

 

Blackpool-Norwich on Saturday.

A draw there would further our cause whatever we do, other than that a Norwich win

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forget number of points needed. If we accept Charlton are gone then we just need to match or better the number of points Norwich and Blackpool [and win our game in hand we have] can muster between now and the end of the season. Any thing on top of this is irrelevant, but a bonus.

 

Blackpool-Norwich on Saturday.

A draw there would further our cause whatever we do, other than that a Norwich win with a lot of red cards and a few season ending injuries.

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BIRMINGHAM AWAY - DRAW

DERBY HOME - WIN

QPR HOME - WIN

BLACKPOOL AWAY - WIN

CHARLTON HOME - WIN

WATFORD AWAY - LOSE

WOLVES AWAY - LOSE

CRYSTAL PALACE HOME - WIN

SHEFF WED AWAY - WIN

BURNLEY HOME - WIN

NOTTM FOREST AWAY - WIN

 

Thats my take on it. Might be this sudden burst of optimisom thats taken over me though. However IMHO since we have gone down, people on here (myself included) have said the key to survival/promotion is to have two decent strikers with strength and who can put themselves about. In Euell and Saga, we have IMO the two strikers who can cause opposition defences nightmares.

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Try the BBC predictor. Loads of teams play each other so I reckon we'll stay up on 50, 1 ahead of Blackpool and 2 Norwich. 2 behind Forest.

 

Have a go....

 

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_1/predictor/default.stm

 

Yep, just done it and quite clearly Charlton, Blackpool and Norwich will go down, Barnsley just escape and we finish in 12th on 62 points, 20 points clear of relegation and 16 short of the play offs. The predictor is really good and provided you following simple logic based on current form we have no worries as the predictor confirms! Joking apart, if you look at others games as well as our own (which people above have mainly commented) on 46 points could well be enough and three wins might see us pretty safe. With 50 points we would surely be safe.

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Yep, just done it and quite clearly Charlton, Blackpool and Norwich will go down, Barnsley just escape and we finish in 12th on 62 points, 20 points clear of relegation and 16 short of the play offs. The predictor is really good and provided you following simple logic based on current form we have no worries as the predictor confirms! Joking apart, if you look at others games as well as our own (which people above have mainly commented) on 46 points could well be enough and three wins might see us pretty safe. With 50 points we would surely be safe.

 

**** that iv got us in a play off with Wolves,

 

1 Reading

2 Birmingham

3 Wolves

4 Cardiff

5 Preston

6 Saints

 

22 Blackpool

23 Barnsley

24 Charlton

 

Next year the world !!!!

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I don't think we will lose against Birmingham. Why should we? They are struggling to score and look very ordinary right now. They have strikers out for various reasons look a little bit ready for the taking. I think it could well be a 4th straight win or at best for them a 2-2 draw.

 

I can see us scoring 2 goals, but struggle to imagine them hitting that kind of form, so I would say if we score two goals we will take at least a point, possible all 3.

 

Andy shouldn't we expect two goals from our boys right now?

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Calm down everyone!

Brum are up there on merit, we could get done by the odd goal at St Andrews but Derby will be crapping themselves coming to us.

Turn them over, QPR are already on holiday, the train wreck is back on the rails and going direct to Safety Central.

 

 

 

hopefully.

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Remembering we are Saints, and not getting carried away after 3 superb wins on the trot, I see our remaining fixtures panning out thus:

 

BIRMINGHAM AWAY - LOSE

DERBY HOME - WIN

QPR HOME - DRAW

BLACKPOOL AWAY - DRAW

CHARLTON HOME - WIN

WATFORD AWAY - LOSE

WOLVES AWAY - LOSE

CRYSTAL PALACE HOME - WIN

SHEFF WED AWAY - LOSE

BURNLEY HOME - WIN

NOTTM FOREST AWAY - LOSE

 

Total W 4 D 2 L 5 = 14 points

 

Which will see us finish on 51 points. I hope this will be enough.

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The question is can we keep up this current effort. The enemy is form and fitness, if we lose a couple of key defenders through injury it could all be derailed. We have to allow for this over 11 games so in fairness we'd have to expect to end up losing 5 leaving six to split on wins & draws, say 3 of each.

 

We should do well enough to get 12 points which is more than 1 point per game remaining (1.09) compared to our take so far of 1.06. Beyond that it remains the luck of the draw, not lapsing into old habits and the attitude of the opposition.

 

Don't expect Charlton, Blackpool, Watford, Crystal Palace & Notts F to roll over and give us an easy ride. They are just as keen as us to stay up and will fight all the way. These games will be rough, tough and totally unpredictable.

 

Regretably, we must still rely on others ****ing it up in a bigger way than we do.

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