SaintBobby Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 It's at about this stage of the season when I start being a total nerd with spreadsheets and trying to gaze into a crystal ball. Likelihood is that 14 more points will secure survival. My hand-on-heart projections for the remaining games are as follows: BIRMINGHAM AWAY - LOSE DERBY HOME - WIN QPR HOME - DRAW BLACKPOOL AWAY - DRAW CHARLTON HOME - WIN WATFORD AWAY - DRAW WOLVES AWAY - LOSE CRYSTAL PALACE HOME - WIN SHEFF WED AWAY - LOSE BURNLEY HOME - DRAW NOTTM FOREST AWAY - DRAW Total W 3 D 5 L 3 = 14 points Gettin way ahead of myself here - but things might get interesting/weird if we go to the City Ground on the final day of the season with both Saints and Forest needing a point to guarantee safety - or possibly, say, one team needing to win and the other needing only to avoid defeat by a hatful of goals (echoes of Austria v West Germany in the 1982 World Cup, perhaps?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Micky Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 Who knows - but would you have given us 9 points out of the last 3 games. Funny old game, football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 4 March, 2009 Author Share Posted 4 March, 2009 Who knows - but would you have given us 9 points out of the last 3 games. Funny old game, football. God no. 4 at best. That's why I'm treating some of our games as "bonus" games - expect to lose and treat any points as a surprise. Definitely had Ipswich away in this category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank's cousin Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 Sorry bobby sjust saw this so forgive my post ion teh Germany - Austria/draw thingy.... ;-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 4 March, 2009 Author Share Posted 4 March, 2009 Sorry bobby sjust saw this so forgive my post ion teh Germany - Austria/draw thingy.... ;-( Consider yourself forgiven - great minds think alike, hey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlfredKo Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 It's at about this stage of the season when I start being a total nerd with spreadsheets and trying to gaze into a crystal ball. Likelihood is that 14 more points will secure survival. My hand-on-heart projections for the remaining games are as follows: BIRMINGHAM AWAY - LOSE DERBY HOME - WIN QPR HOME - DRAW BLACKPOOL AWAY - DRAW CHARLTON HOME - WIN WATFORD AWAY - DRAW WOLVES AWAY - LOSE CRYSTAL PALACE HOME - WIN SHEFF WED AWAY - LOSE BURNLEY HOME - DRAW NOTTM FOREST AWAY - DRAW Total W 3 D 5 L 3 = 14 points Gettin way ahead of myself here - but things might get interesting/weird if we go to the City Ground on the final day of the season with both Saints and Forest needing a point to guarantee safety - or possibly, say, one team needing to win and the other needing only to avoid defeat by a hatful of goals (echoes of Austria v West Germany in the 1982 World Cup, perhaps?) That is abosolute ********!!!!! You mean on paper we can not get 3 points at home against QPR and will lose to Wednesday which is the poorest team that I noticed when they played us last December??? Also why must we lose away at Brimingham and Wolves? We are the in form team at this moment should be Brimingham fears playing against us indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slickmick Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 The rate teams at the bottom are picking up points, 14 will not be enough. 55 points could be what is required. 5 wins 3 draws and 3 defeats. Scary! Just when Plymouth and Forest looked to be in a slump, they go out and win 2 games on a trot. Now Blackpool and Barnsley are the out of form teams. These are the two I'm hoping will get cast adrift and our points tally wont need to be so high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 do you think we will drop another point this season then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevegrant Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 The rate teams at the bottom are picking up points, 14 will not be enough. Exactly what I was just about to say. It's going to be so difficult to predict a "safety" target - even Wolves aren't mathematically safe from relegation at this stage of the season :shock: - and while teams at the bottom continue to pick up "surprise" points (arguably all three of our wins in the last two weeks have been completely against the form book), that safety target will continue to rise. Leicester went down with 52 last season, which was an abnormally high total. This season, the teams fighting against relegation have pulled in more points per game than their counterparts last season. 07/08: http://stats.football365.com/2008/ENG/D1/tofeb.html 08/09: http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/ppgame.html While this season's table is a few days and a couple of games more advanced, the points per game ratios are a pretty decent marker. Norwich were 12th at this stage last season and dropped like a stone to only just be safe before the final day, so I'll use their position as the starting point: Position - 07/08 - 08/09 12th - 1.32 - 1.37 13th - 1.33 - 1.33 14th - 1.23 - 1.31 15th - 1.20 - 1.29 16th - 1.20 - 1.23 17th - 1.21 - 1.16 18th - 1.18 - 1.14 19th - 1.14 - 1.14 20th - 1.08 - 1.11 21st - 1.08 - 1.08 22nd - 1.09 - 1.05 23rd - 0.96 - 1.00 24th - 0.94 - 0.77 Only once is the PPG lower this season compared to last - ironically our current position. Coventry stayed up by a point last season, and scored 1.15 points per game by the end of the season, showing that there is clearly an increase in the number of points struggling teams collect in the latter stages of the season. I think 55 could well be a minimum safety figure, which would mean we need at least another 18 points from the last 11 games. Winning - or rather "not losing" - when we play other teams around us will be the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 got a feeling, that Norwich, Charlton and Blackpool will be adrift soon and less points will be needed. http://www.4thegame.com/statistics/championship/tables/currentform.html http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_1/table/default.stm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 4 March, 2009 Author Share Posted 4 March, 2009 Exactly what I was just about to say. It's going to be so difficult to predict a "safety" target - even Wolves aren't mathematically safe from relegation at this stage of the season :shock: - and while teams at the bottom continue to pick up "surprise" points (arguably all three of our wins in the last two weeks have been completely against the form book), that safety target will continue to rise. I think 55 could well be a minimum safety figure, which would mean we need at least another 18 points from the last 11 games. Winning - or rather "not losing" - when we play other teams around us will be the key. Actually, to be a pedant - Wolves are mathemtically safe. It is true that if we win all our remaining games and they lose all theirs, then we will finish ahead of them, but they wouldn't be in the bottom three. (Because - amongst other things - if we win all our remaining games, this means Blackpool will lose to us and so they can't catch Wolves). I still very much doubt the bar will be as high as 55 points. It's still really just a fraction over one point a game at the bottom of the table - and about 1.5 points per game should just about squeeze a team into the play offs. I think 55 points is probably the "maximum" rather than "minimum" safety figure. If ANY of the five teams above us average less than a point a game for the rest of the season (and it seems a fair bet that at least one of them will), then 49 might well be enough to stay up. Put another way - if you offered me a final Saints tally of 52 points right now, I'd definitely take it. We might get relegated with that total, but it's very unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNSUN Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 BIRMINGHAM AWAY - LOSE DERBY HOME - WIN QPR HOME - DRAW BLACKPOOL AWAY - DRAW CHARLTON HOME - WIN WATFORD AWAY - DRAW WOLVES AWAY - LOSE CRYSTAL PALACE HOME - WIN SHEFF WED AWAY - LOSE BURNLEY HOME - DRAW NOTTM FOREST AWAY - DRAW Tis most peculiar. I would have said before the Preston game, that our chance of survival would have come from stringing together wins against Blackpool, Charlton and Watford. Looking at recent form however, we should also be looking to beat the likes of QPR, Palace and even Wolves. A colleague of mine said that every team in this league can beat every other team, but this season, we had been so poor I didn't think it possible. Now it seems, we have turned a corner, and if we can keep the positive run coming, I don't see why we can't survive. My head still thinks the damage has been done. To win 3 on the bounce and still be in the zone shows how screwed we were. To lose at home to Forest before Christmas was, at the time I believed, the final nail in the coffin. Now however, we're playing football that dictates that we could go to Forest on the last day with a point to prove! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 Exactly what I was just about to say. It's going to be so difficult to predict a "safety" target - even Wolves aren't mathematically safe from relegation at this stage of the season :shock: - and while teams at the bottom continue to pick up "surprise" points (arguably all three of our wins in the last two weeks have been completely against the form book), that safety target will continue to rise. Leicester went down with 52 last season, which was an abnormally high total. This season, the teams fighting against relegation have pulled in more points per game than their counterparts last season. 07/08: http://stats.football365.com/2008/ENG/D1/tofeb.html 08/09: http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/D1/ppgame.html While this season's table is a few days and a couple of games more advanced, the points per game ratios are a pretty decent marker. Norwich were 12th at this stage last season and dropped like a stone to only just be safe before the final day, so I'll use their position as the starting point: Position - 07/08 - 08/09 12th - 1.32 - 1.37 13th - 1.33 - 1.33 14th - 1.23 - 1.31 15th - 1.20 - 1.29 16th - 1.20 - 1.23 17th - 1.21 - 1.16 18th - 1.18 - 1.14 19th - 1.14 - 1.14 20th - 1.08 - 1.11 21st - 1.08 - 1.08 22nd - 1.09 - 1.05 23rd - 0.96 - 1.00 24th - 0.94 - 0.77 Only once is the PPG lower this season compared to last - ironically our current position. Coventry stayed up by a point last season, and scored 1.15 points per game by the end of the season, showing that there is clearly an increase in the number of points struggling teams collect in the latter stages of the season. I think 55 could well be a minimum safety figure, which would mean we need at least another 18 points from the last 11 games. Winning - or rather "not losing" - when we play other teams around us will be the key. For any side currently on 40 points or less getting to 55 is a big ask actually. If we were to do it we'd have to beat Blackpool,Forest and Watford thus making it far harder for them to do it. I can't see either ourselves,Norwich,Barnsley or Blackpool getting 55 points and I'd be pretty sceptical about Plymouth and Forest as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNSUN Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 Alternately we could win all 33 points left this season and achieve play-off status! By the way, is anyone else looking at Crystal Palace and thinking they could be dragged into it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arizona Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 The next 4.66 games, bring it on!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andy_Porter Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 BIRMINGHAM AWAY - Draw DERBY HOME - Win QPR HOME - Draw BLACKPOOL AWAY - Draw CHARLTON HOME - Win WATFORD AWAY - Draw WOLVES AWAY - Lose CRYSTAL PALACE HOME - Win SHEFF WED AWAY - Draw BURNLEY HOME - Win NOTTM FOREST AWAY - Lose 17 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nineteen Canteen Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 The rate teams at the bottom are picking up points, 14 will not be enough. 55 points could be what is required. 5 wins 3 draws and 3 defeats. Scary! Just when Plymouth and Forest looked to be in a slump, they go out and win 2 games on a trot. Now Blackpool and Barnsley are the out of form teams. These are the two I'm hoping will get cast adrift and our points tally wont need to be so high. Mick 55 points will be a record and in the past 15 years I think only once has a team been relegated on 52pts. It's Frustrating we are winning but not getting out of teh bottom 3 but whereas teams like Plymouth and Forest are winning as you say others are getting dragged in. This is best illustrated by that after the Preston game we were still effectvely 4 points adrift and 5 points from the dizzy heights of 18th. Now with a win on Saturday against a jittery Birmingham we could effectively leapfrog 4 teams and be in 18th. So even though after 3 wins we are in the bottom our overall situation has improved dramatically. Our home against Derby looks the most difficult as they were unlucky last night and are as equally revitalised as ourselves. The rest of our run in looks fairly easy with the likes of QPR, Charlton, Palace (1 win in 9) all looking home bankers and Blackpool, Watford and Sheff Wed all there for the taking away from home. Win those 6 and we have 18 points and your 55 cut off. With Burnley and Wolves wobbling the last game of the season against Forest could be irrelevant. Should be fairly comfortable thanks to these 3 unexpected wins provided we all keep the faith and roll with the odd defeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian the Red Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 Well as usual most believe we will not achieve safety. Wins bread confidence, confidence gives results. 3 wins in a row makes us one of the inform sides and as such we go into the brum game with a point a prove. Brum were lucky to beat us in August. I would not be surprised to see three more wins, Brum, derby and QPR. We are playing well enough; the team has spirit; the players want to play for each other; for the team and more importantly for the manager. Three more wins will put us on 46 points, just another 9 points from safety. COYR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nineteen Canteen Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 Interesting the consensus view that we can beat Derby and only draw with QPR. I think Derby at home on their current form will be tougher than the game on Saturday or any of those we've already played under Wotte. Still, taking the fixtures from Preston thru to Derby if we take 9pts from a possible 15pts I think we would have taken that at the start as bonus points and with the possible exception of Wolves all of the remaining 9 games look very winnable and you couldn't say that about the current run of 5 fixtures we are in. Very confident we will be safe and probably after 44 games provided off the field pressures don't ruin the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustMike Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 Interesting the consensus view that we can beat Derby and only draw with QPR. I think Derby at home on their current form will be tougher than the game on Saturday or any of those we've already played under Wotte. Still, taking the fixtures from Preston thru to Derby if we take 9pts from a possible 15pts I think we would have taken that at the start as bonus points and with the possible exception of Wolves all of the remaining 9 games look very winnable and you couldn't say that about the current run of 5 fixtures we are in. Very confident we will be safe and probably after 44 games provided off the field pressures don't ruin the party. you just cant help yourself can you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 4 March, 2009 Author Share Posted 4 March, 2009 Well as usual most believe we will not achieve safety. Wins bread confidence, confidence gives results. COYR The bookies put us at about 11/10 to go down - so if anyone really is convinced that we're doomed, you can more than double your money by getting it down now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 you just cant help yourself can you? I think he's referring to administration actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 The bookies put us at about 11/10 to go down - so if anyone really is convinced that we're doomed, you can more than double your money by getting it down now. Perhaps the club should have a £3 million quid punt on it then. If we stay up we get the extra TV money and if we don't we get 3.3 million from the bookies. Sounds like a win/win situation to me:smt115:smt115:smt115 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Wayman Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 To be realistic we'd have to say that of 11 games remaining we are most likely to Win 3, Draw 3, Lose 4 - yielding 49 points at season's end. This is about the win/draw/lose ratio we normally hit even when in form. As long as Blackpool & Norwich fare no better, we'll be OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nineteen Canteen Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 I think he's referring to administration actually. Correct, although, some heavy chips are weighing on slumping shoulders at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Wayman Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 Lose 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nineteen Canteen Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 To be realistic we'd have to say that of 11 games remaining we are most likely to Win 3, Draw 3, Lose 4 - yielding 49 points at season's end. This is about the win/draw/lose ratio we normally hit even when in form. As long as Blackpool & Norwich fare no better, we'll be OK Realistic? Do you study form Charlie as you sound like a pessimistic woe is me pinsticker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saint_ed Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 BIRMINGHAM AWAY - LOSE DERBY HOME - WIN QPR HOME - DRAW BLACKPOOL AWAY - WIN CHARLTON HOME - WIN WATFORD AWAY - LOSE WOLVES AWAY - LOSE CRYSTAL PALACE HOME - DRAW SHEFF WED AWAY - LOSE BURNLEY HOME - DRAW NOTTM FOREST AWAY - WIN My prediction is 15 more points taking us to 52 points. It's going to be close thats f'sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stax Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 The bottom line is none of us expected 9 points from the last 3 games, i expected 1 or 2 so bring on Brum on Saturday they are in poor form 1 win in 6 we can take them c'mon!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N/West Saint Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 The bottom line is none of us expected 9 points from the last 3 games, i expected 1 or 2 so bring on Brum on Saturday they are in poor form 1 win in 6 we can take them c'mon!! I think we will get something from Birmingham be it a draw or win. They play tonight and are looking a bit shaky at the moment. COYR Keep it going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
modern matron Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 The bottom line is none of us expected 9 points from the last 3 games, i expected 1 or 2 so bring on Brum on Saturday they are in poor form 1 win in 6 we can take them c'mon!! Try the BBC predictor. Loads of teams play each other so I reckon we'll stay up on 50, 1 ahead of Blackpool and 2 Norwich. 2 behind Forest. Have a go.... http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_1/predictor/default.stm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VectisSaint Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 I'm with several others in believeing that 51 points will not be enough this year. I would say more like 53 or 54 but our target should be 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andoverian Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 Why do we have to fear anyone. We are playing as well as anyone in the division. I bet Birmingham are nervous about playing us on Saturday. Get yourself up to St Andrews and give the lads the sort of loud support they deserve and we will come away with another 3 points. By the way I still hate Lowe ! COYR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 Try the BBC predictor. Loads of teams play each other so I reckon we'll stay up on 50, 1 ahead of Blackpool and 2 Norwich. 2 behind Forest. Have a go.... http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_1/predictor/default.stm Hmm can't be right ,we ****sed it and finished mid-table.Back to the drawing board then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wagon 84 Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 It's at about this stage of the season when I start being a total nerd with spreadsheets and trying to gaze into a crystal ball. Likelihood is that 14 more points will secure survival. My hand-on-heart projections for the remaining games are as follows: BIRMINGHAM AWAY - LOSE DERBY HOME - WIN QPR HOME - DRAW BLACKPOOL AWAY - DRAW CHARLTON HOME - WIN WATFORD AWAY - DRAW WOLVES AWAY - LOSE CRYSTAL PALACE HOME - WIN SHEFF WED AWAY - LOSE BURNLEY HOME - DRAW NOTTM FOREST AWAY - DRAW Total W 3 D 5 L 3 = 14 points Gettin way ahead of myself here - but things might get interesting/weird if we go to the City Ground on the final day of the season with both Saints and Forest needing a point to guarantee safety - or possibly, say, one team needing to win and the other needing only to avoid defeat by a hatful of goals (echoes of Austria v West Germany in the 1982 World Cup, perhaps?) Try 11 games left 33pts to play for, when we win them all we will have 70pts Watford made the play offs last season on 70pts... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintwarwick Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 To be realistic we'd have to say that of 11 games remaining we are most likely to Win 3, Draw 3, Lose 4 - yielding 49 points at season's end. This is about the win/draw/lose ratio we normally hit even when in form. As long as Blackpool & Norwich fare no better, we'll be OK IYO of course and your win 3, draw 3 and lose 4 only makes 10 games so what about the missed game How many predicted our last three wins, after those results we are most likely to win 6 more games if anything. IMO there are quite a few winnable games, we have to make sure we do win these games. My predictions: Birmingham: Draw Derby: Win QPR: Win Blackpool:Win Charlton: Win Watford: Draw Wolves: Lose Palace: Win Wednesday: Draw Burnley: Draw Forest: Draw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glkdcdes Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 forget number of points needed. If we accept Charlton are gone then we just need to match or better the number of points Norwich and Blackpool [and win our game in hand we have] can muster between now and the end of the season. Any thing on top of this is irrelevant, but a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 forget number of points needed. If we accept Charlton are gone then we just need to match or better the number of points Norwich and Blackpool [and win our game in hand we have] can muster between now and the end of the season. Any thing on top of this is irrelevant, but a bonus. Blackpool-Norwich on Saturday. A draw there would further our cause whatever we do, other than that a Norwich win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 forget number of points needed. If we accept Charlton are gone then we just need to match or better the number of points Norwich and Blackpool [and win our game in hand we have] can muster between now and the end of the season. Any thing on top of this is irrelevant, but a bonus. Blackpool-Norwich on Saturday. A draw there would further our cause whatever we do, other than that a Norwich win with a lot of red cards and a few season ending injuries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 we only need a handful - Norwich and Blackpool are going down! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saint_bert Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 BIRMINGHAM AWAY - DRAW DERBY HOME - WIN QPR HOME - WIN BLACKPOOL AWAY - WIN CHARLTON HOME - WIN WATFORD AWAY - LOSE WOLVES AWAY - LOSE CRYSTAL PALACE HOME - WIN SHEFF WED AWAY - WIN BURNLEY HOME - WIN NOTTM FOREST AWAY - WIN Thats my take on it. Might be this sudden burst of optimisom thats taken over me though. However IMHO since we have gone down, people on here (myself included) have said the key to survival/promotion is to have two decent strikers with strength and who can put themselves about. In Euell and Saga, we have IMO the two strikers who can cause opposition defences nightmares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearsy Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 I still think we're going down, I can feel it in my nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Shearer Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 TBH last season I thought that we'd stay up regardless. However this season since the new year I don't think we will. I just can't tell where the points are going to come from. Think I'm in a panic induced state at the moment regarding Saints! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panda Posted 4 March, 2009 Share Posted 4 March, 2009 Try the BBC predictor. Loads of teams play each other so I reckon we'll stay up on 50, 1 ahead of Blackpool and 2 Norwich. 2 behind Forest. Have a go.... http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_div_1/predictor/default.stm Yep, just done it and quite clearly Charlton, Blackpool and Norwich will go down, Barnsley just escape and we finish in 12th on 62 points, 20 points clear of relegation and 16 short of the play offs. The predictor is really good and provided you following simple logic based on current form we have no worries as the predictor confirms! Joking apart, if you look at others games as well as our own (which people above have mainly commented) on 46 points could well be enough and three wins might see us pretty safe. With 50 points we would surely be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wagon 84 Posted 5 March, 2009 Share Posted 5 March, 2009 Yep, just done it and quite clearly Charlton, Blackpool and Norwich will go down, Barnsley just escape and we finish in 12th on 62 points, 20 points clear of relegation and 16 short of the play offs. The predictor is really good and provided you following simple logic based on current form we have no worries as the predictor confirms! Joking apart, if you look at others games as well as our own (which people above have mainly commented) on 46 points could well be enough and three wins might see us pretty safe. With 50 points we would surely be safe. **** that iv got us in a play off with Wolves, 1 Reading 2 Birmingham 3 Wolves 4 Cardiff 5 Preston 6 Saints 22 Blackpool 23 Barnsley 24 Charlton Next year the world !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyFartPants Posted 5 March, 2009 Share Posted 5 March, 2009 I don't think we will lose against Birmingham. Why should we? They are struggling to score and look very ordinary right now. They have strikers out for various reasons look a little bit ready for the taking. I think it could well be a 4th straight win or at best for them a 2-2 draw. I can see us scoring 2 goals, but struggle to imagine them hitting that kind of form, so I would say if we score two goals we will take at least a point, possible all 3. Andy shouldn't we expect two goals from our boys right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rallyboy Posted 5 March, 2009 Share Posted 5 March, 2009 Calm down everyone! Brum are up there on merit, we could get done by the odd goal at St Andrews but Derby will be crapping themselves coming to us. Turn them over, QPR are already on holiday, the train wreck is back on the rails and going direct to Safety Central. hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minsk Posted 6 March, 2009 Share Posted 6 March, 2009 Remembering we are Saints, and not getting carried away after 3 superb wins on the trot, I see our remaining fixtures panning out thus: BIRMINGHAM AWAY - LOSE DERBY HOME - WIN QPR HOME - DRAW BLACKPOOL AWAY - DRAW CHARLTON HOME - WIN WATFORD AWAY - LOSE WOLVES AWAY - LOSE CRYSTAL PALACE HOME - WIN SHEFF WED AWAY - LOSE BURNLEY HOME - WIN NOTTM FOREST AWAY - LOSE Total W 4 D 2 L 5 = 14 points Which will see us finish on 51 points. I hope this will be enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Wayman Posted 6 March, 2009 Share Posted 6 March, 2009 The question is can we keep up this current effort. The enemy is form and fitness, if we lose a couple of key defenders through injury it could all be derailed. We have to allow for this over 11 games so in fairness we'd have to expect to end up losing 5 leaving six to split on wins & draws, say 3 of each. We should do well enough to get 12 points which is more than 1 point per game remaining (1.09) compared to our take so far of 1.06. Beyond that it remains the luck of the draw, not lapsing into old habits and the attitude of the opposition. Don't expect Charlton, Blackpool, Watford, Crystal Palace & Notts F to roll over and give us an easy ride. They are just as keen as us to stay up and will fight all the way. These games will be rough, tough and totally unpredictable. Regretably, we must still rely on others ****ing it up in a bigger way than we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wild-saint Posted 6 March, 2009 Share Posted 6 March, 2009 I still think we're going down, I can feel it in my nuts. Finally your balls are dropping too right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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