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Stats for the moaners...


Dibden Purlieu Saint
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The top 6 on current form, Final league standings:

 

Norwich 96

Leeds 95

--------------------

Colchester 89

Swindon 88

Charlton 83

Huddersfield 82

--------------------

Southampton (not including points deduction) 68

 

This means that for Saints to get to/have got to the playoffs we would need to have scored 92 points (and had a better goal difference than Huddersfield).

 

82 is also the highest points for a playoff place since League 1 inception, and by a clear 6 points. In fact, in 2005-2006, the top team scored 82. Since 2004-2005, only 5 teams (including Norwich and Leeds this season if it happens) have reached 92 points, and the other 3 were Luton (who scored 98 in 2004-2005), Swansea (92 in 2007/2008) and Leicester (96 in 2008-2009, and they were perceived to have run away with the league) last season.

 

What I’m saying, is looking at this, was it ever realistic that a team could get to the required 92 points when:

 

• They nearly went bust over the Summer

• They had a short and ineffective pre-season

• They had a pretty much brand new group of players

• They had a minus 10 points deduction and the psychological issues that go with that

• They played 4 of the current top 6 (3 away from home) in our first 7 matches and most without our new players.

 

Just wondering, that’s all. And taking the points we have earned since coming out of the minus 10, we have averaged nearly 2 points a game (36 points from 19 games), which would have seen us finish the season on 87 points, which including the minus 10 would have given us the highest 6th place points score since inception.

 

I know this is a lot of stats to take in, and yes, we are all very disappointed that we can’t seem to play on **** pitches, but I think that even the most optimistic of us at the beginning of the season couldn’t see us getting 92 points. And if you did, well, I’ll leave you to think about how realistic that was.

 

Cue the backlash.

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The top 6 on current form, Final league standings:

 

Norwich 96

Leeds 95

--------------------

Colchester 89

Swindon 88

Charlton 83

Huddersfield 82

--------------------

Southampton (not including points deduction) 68

 

This means that for Saints to get to/have got to the playoffs we would need to have scored 92 points (and had a better goal difference than Huddersfield).

 

82 is also the highest points for a playoff place since League 1 inception, and by a clear 6 points. In fact, in 2005-2006, the top team scored 82. Since 2004-2005, only 5 teams (including Norwich and Leeds this season if it happens) have reached 92 points, and the other 3 were Luton (who scored 98 in 2004-2005), Swansea (92 in 2007/2008) and Leicester (96 in 2008-2009, and they were perceived to have run away with the league) last season.

 

What I’m saying, is looking at this, was it ever realistic that a team could get to the required 92 points when:

 

• They nearly went bust over the Summer

• They had a short and ineffective pre-season

• They had a pretty much brand new group of players

• They had a minus 10 points deduction and the psychological issues that go with that

• They played 4 of the current top 6 (3 away from home) in our first 7 matches and most without our new players.

 

Just wondering, that’s all. And taking the points we have earned since coming out of the minus 10, we have averaged nearly 2 points a game (36 points from 19 games), which would have seen us finish the season on 87 points, which including the minus 10 would have given us the highest 6th place points score since inception.

 

I know this is a lot of stats to take in, and yes, we are all very disappointed that we can’t seem to play on **** pitches, but I think that even the most optimistic of us at the beginning of the season couldn’t see us getting 92 points. And if you did, well, I’ll leave you to think about how realistic that was.

 

Cue the backlash.

 

Totally agree a very good analysis

 

No promotion this year but probably next year I would have thought

Edited by John B
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I will be very surprised if 6th actually do achieve 82 points. The fact is that between now and end of season the top 6 have to play each other several times and someone will drop points. It is a strange thing this season that almost every week all the fixtures seem to be top 8 v bottom half for weeks on end, and it is clear that there are 8 or 9 teams who are head and shoulders above the rest of the division (at least on a level playing surface)

 

That said, we still will not get anywhere near 6th place, 8th would be the result of a very good run-in.

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Vectis has made the same point I was going to. In fact there are 10 fixtures between now and the end of the season when the current top 6 play each other.

 

In addition there are 5 fixtures where we play the top 6.

 

It's very tight, but still doable.

 

Worth thinking that if we'd drawn at Norwich and won at Wycombe, the wrist slitters probably wouldn't have been posting.

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thinking that if we'd drawn at Norwich and won at Wycombe, the wrist slitters probably wouldn't have been posting.

 

 

But those who have read the Gospel according to St Nicola would.

 

I'm fairly comfortable with our results, that's not the question. The question is

are the only 2 opinions who really count satisfied with our draw at Wycombe.

These are the guys who hire and fire, it's up to them. NC seemed to say in his public statement that only a place in the play-offs would be considered satisfactory, so until he speaks on the matter again nobody really knows what the management opinion actually is.

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But those who have read the Gospel according to St Nicola would.

 

I'm fairly comfortable with our results, that's not the question. The question is

are the only 2 opinions who really count satisfied with our draw at Wycombe.

These are the guys who hire and fire, it's up to them. NC seemed to say in his public statement that only a place in the play-offs would be considered satisfactory, so until he speaks on the matter again nobody really knows what the management opinion actually is.

 

Agreed, it is 100% up to them, but I am worried that with the influence this board has on the running of the club (we know there are reps from the club who look on here) that they will see the same old people complaining and will push them to act.

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But those who have read the Gospel according to St Nicola would.

 

I'm fairly comfortable with our results, that's not the question. The question is

are the only 2 opinions who really count satisfied with our draw at Wycombe.

These are the guys who hire and fire, it's up to them. NC seemed to say in his public statement that only a place in the play-offs would be considered satisfactory, so until he speaks on the matter again nobody really knows what the management opinion actually is.

 

Where has he said this? :rolleyes:

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But those who have read the Gospel according to St Nicola would.

 

I'm fairly comfortable with our results, that's not the question. The question is

are the only 2 opinions who really count satisfied with our draw at Wycombe.

These are the guys who hire and fire, it's up to them. NC seemed to say in his public statement that only a place in the play-offs would be considered satisfactory, so until he speaks on the matter again nobody really knows what the management opinion actually is.

 

There are are several ways to interpret a quote: He said that recent League One results have “not been satisfactory”.

 

That's not rocket science, we'd had a couple of bore draws, but neither was he referencing playoffs directly.

 

There is a school of thought (not one I'm sure I believe) that he made the comment to take pressure off the team in the cup fixtures.

 

I think there's a danger we read too much into it either way.

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Agreed, it is 100% up to them, but I am worried that with the influence this board has on the running of the club (we know there are reps from the club who look on here) that they will see the same old people complaining and will push them to act.

 

This worries me a bit, it's fairly obvious from articles that have appeared on the OS that they pay close attention to what's said on here.

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Agreed, it is 100% up to them, but I am worried that with the influence this board has on the running of the club (we know there are reps from the club who look on here) that they will see the same old people complaining and will push them to act.

 

 

Don't think so, NC will only be influenced by the result at the end of the season against the objectives set (which were probably revised during the transfers window because of the heavy outlay..for a League 1 side).I would think NC has football advisers and their opinion will count far more than 500 LGTCs and GSs.

 

As I say, none of our opinions count, only the management and their advisers.

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There are are several ways to interpret a quote: He said that recent League One results have “not been satisfactory”.

 

That's not rocket science, we'd had a couple of bore draws, but neither was he referencing playoffs directly.

 

There is a school of thought (not one I'm sure I believe) that he made the comment to take pressure off the team in the cup fixtures.

 

I think there's a danger we read too much into it either way.

 

 

I don't remember the exact wording of the statement but I seem to remember that the play-offs were the principal objective and only results in order to achieve that were considered "satisfactory".NC wanted us to return to winning ways against Norwich so exactly how he took the bore draw a Wycombe can only be guessed at.

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Don't think so, NC will only be influenced by the result at the end of the season against the objectives set (which were probably revised during the transfers window because of the heavy outlay..for a League 1 side).I would think NC has football advisers and their opinion will count far more than 500 LGTCs and GSs.

 

As I say, none of our opinions count, only the management and their advisers.

 

However, the owners have made great play of their admiration of us, the fans, and their wish to give us success in the light of the suffering of the past few years. They will therefore do their own market research, and the best way of doing that is by posing questionnaires on the OS and by having people look at websites such as this one and report back.

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Where has he said this? :rolleyes:

 

 

Oh, here we go, the "deniers" are back. There has been comments about aiming for the play offs all season, and Cortese said in on the radio not so long ago.

 

We are aiming for the play offs. We are aiming for the play offs. Stop pretending we're not.

 

We. are. aiming. for. the. play. offs.

Cortese said owner Markus Liebherr had made a significant investment - with nearly £2m thought to have been spent on players in January alone - and the reason for that was so Saints would make the playoffs.

Cortese added that recent league results have "not been satisfactory against that objective".

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Oh, here we go, the "deniers" are back. There has been comments about aiming for the play offs all season, and Cortese said in on the radio not so long ago.

 

We are aiming for the play offs. We are aiming for the play offs. Stop pretending we're not.

 

We. are. aiming. for. the. play. offs.

Cortese said owner Markus Liebherr had made a significant investment - with nearly £2m thought to have been spent on players in January alone - and the reason for that was so Saints would make the playoffs.

Cortese added that recent league results have "not been satisfactory against that objective".

 

Sorry, but the echo have taken that quote completely out of context IMO.

Show me the link to the complete interview, thanks. He definitely said they have not been satisfactory, but I don't remember him even mentioning the play-offs.

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The lack of a pre season can't explain the inept perfomances I've seen recently at Wycombe & Brentford.

 

The reason that people are getting upset in my opinion is 2 months ago we are as close as 9 points if I remember correctly. Now we are 19 points.

 

The chances are we will win on Saturday and things will be looking up again, but we don't seem to be getting any consistancy in performances which is dissappointing.

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Sorry, but the echo have taken that quote completely out of context IMO.

Show me the link to the complete interview, thanks. He definitely said they have not been satisfactory, but I don't remember him even mentioning the play-offs.

 

 

Yawn. We were aiming for the play offs at the start of the season, plenty of quotes and interviews at the time which people like you are desperate to pretend didn't happen.

 

We're aiming for the playoffs and I am bemused how that is so offensive to so many Saints fans. Why is it such a bad thing that it has to be denied by shrieking old women like you?

Edited by CB Fry
*Can I have a hundred pounds if the next post is "prove it"............
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Yawn. We were aiming for the play offs at the start of the season, plenty of quotes and interviews at the time which people like you are desperate to pretend didn't happen.

 

We're aiming for the playoffs and I am bemused how that is so offensive to so many Saints fans. Why is it such a bad thing that it has to be denied by shrieking old women like you?

 

Pardew also said we were aiming for top two at the start of the season. Cortese also told the Charlton chairman we were aiming to go up as Champions.

It's not "such a bad thing", but when people start suggesting Pardew should be moved on if we don't make the play-offs it gets a bit ridiculous.

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Just for a bit of balance, some more stats for 6th Place finishes :

(League One)

2009 : Scvnthorpe 76 pts

2008 : Southend 76 pts

2007 : Oldham 75 pts

2006 : Swansea 71 pts

2005 : Hartlepool 71 pts

(Div Two)

2004 : Hartlepool 73 pts

2003 : Cardiff 81 pts

2002 : Huddersfield 78 pts

2001 : Wigan 75 pts

2000 : Stoke 82 pts

 

So it has been ten years since any 6th place team has needed as many points as the OP suggested we need, and some seasons you can get in with only 71. Arithmetic mean is 75.8, modes 71, 75, 76.

 

Stats from the last 10 years suggest the most likely points total we'll need is 76, who cares how many points you need to come 3rd ?

Edited by The9
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Sorry, but the echo have taken that quote completely out of context IMO.

Show me the link to the complete interview, thanks. He definitely said they have not been satisfactory, but I don't remember him even mentioning the play-offs.

 

 

I don't know if there is a transcript of the exact statement on Solent anywhere

but by reading the local press reviews of it(Echo:smt036,Andover Advertiser etc) there is direct reference to the 2 million or so investment by the owner as being designed to obtain a play-off place this season. I didn't make all this stuff up you know just to pass my leave week,it's what he said or the press reported him to have said. No play-offs=unsatisfactory in view of investment.Make your own mind up on what he meant by that but to me it it's quite clear No playoffs=75% chance bye bye Pardew.

Edited by Window Cleaner
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Oh, here we go, the "deniers" are back. There has been comments about aiming for the play offs all season, and Cortese said in on the radio not so long ago.

 

We are aiming for the play offs. We are aiming for the play offs. Stop pretending we're not.

 

We. are. aiming. for. the. play. offs.

Cortese said owner Markus Liebherr had made a significant investment - with nearly £2m thought to have been spent on players in January alone - and the reason for that was so Saints would make the playoffs.

Cortese added that recent league results have "not been satisfactory against that objective".

 

You're trying to prove something by lifting a paragraph from the Echo, brilliant. What a pratt!

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Yawn. We were aiming for the play offs at the start of the season, plenty of quotes and interviews at the time which people like you are desperate to pretend didn't happen.

 

We're aiming for the playoffs and I am bemused how that is so offensive to so many Saints fans. Why is it such a bad thing that it has to be denied by shrieking old women like you?

 

So you're saying it is reasonable to aim for a potential 92 points considering then?

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Oh, here we go, the "deniers" are back. There has been comments about aiming for the play offs all season, and Cortese said in on the radio not so long ago.

 

We are aiming for the play offs. We are aiming for the play offs. Stop pretending we're not.

 

We. are. aiming. for. the. play. offs.

Cortese said owner Markus Liebherr had made a significant investment - with nearly £2m thought to have been spent on players in January alone - and the reason for that was so Saints would make the playoffs.

Cortese added that recent league results have "not been satisfactory against that objective".

 

"Aiming" for the play-offs and setting the play-offs as the minimum benchmark are very different things, as you well know Mr Fry. ;)

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You're trying to prove something by lifting a paragraph from the Echo, brilliant. What a pratt!

 

Not so much, the paragraph in the Echo (and other local newsrags) is based on the public statement issued by NC and broadcast on Solent. The content is hard fact, just the way various people interpret it changes.

 

The fact that NC thought it necessary to issue public statement (and that's what it was) is fairly indicative in itself. He had something to say about our League results and wanted it to be generally known.Men like he don't tart about, not good enough means not good enough and not some wimpish gee up for the forthcoming cup games.

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Not so much, the paragraph in the Echo (and other local newsrags) isdbased on the public statement issued by NC and broadcast on Solent. The content is hard fact, just the way various people interpret it changes.

 

The fact that NC thought it necessary to issue public statement (and that's what it was) is fairly indicative in itself. He had something to say about our League results and wanted it to be general known.Men like he don't tart about, not good enough means not good enough and not some wimpish gee up for the forthcoming cup games.

 

I'm not saying it is, just find it funny when people quote the Echo for anything...

 

...apart from Mr Kerins brilliant articles, of course.

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Personally I think 76pts would be enough baring in mind that the teams at the top have to play each other and us. To achive that tally we'd need to average 2.375 pts a game, now thats a big ask. Would mean we would need to win 13 out of our reamining 16 games, thus only losing 3 more times. Even with my rose tinted glasses I think its going to be tricky :-(

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As a fan my assessment (not that its worth much) is happy with progress BUT could do better.

 

Unfortunately for AP its not my opinion that counts its NC/ML

 

I would like to see AP given next season to progress the team but, for the 'moaners about the moaners', with the investment and the fact that the squad should now be pretty settled, the current form that you quote surely won't be good enough for NC/ML bearing in mind the level of investment they have made. Top 7 in form isn't good enough. I would think that AP needs to be showing NC/ML by end of season that 'on current form' we can be a top 2 side.

 

Results like Norwich are great but results against Brentford/Wycombe etc.. are not. We have to learn how to scrap out a win against teams that are happy to do enough for a draw. Colchester are a prime example - horrible style, horrible pitch but AB gets the results.

 

 

Main thing though is that i have now reclaimed the buzz for going to matches this year - haven't had that for a while.

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Results like Norwich are great but results against Brentford/Wycombe etc.. are not.

 

Interestingly, in the last 6 games current form guide, which includes these two 'awful' results at Brentford and Wycombe, Saints are 3rd.

 

And we are 2nd in the the last 6 home games........

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Don't think so, NC will only be influenced by the result at the end of the season against the objectives set (which were probably revised during the transfers window because of the heavy outlay..for a League 1 side).I would think NC has football advisers and their opinion will count far more than 500 LGTCs and GSs.

 

As I say, none of our opinions count, only the management and their advisers.

 

Er, careful banding about whether my opinions count until you know who I am my friend... ;)

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Anyway, we will get 85 points, so all this is fecking immaterial.

 

We are going up, it's just that some people are struggling to accept we have played 7 of the last 9 away from home, achieved better results than our competitors at many of those grounds, have two games in hand and now a nice run of very winnable home games...

 

More fool them. ;)

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Interestingly, in the last 6 games current form guide, which includes these two 'awful' results at Brentford and Wycombe, Saints are 3rd.

 

And we are 2nd in the the last 6 home games........

 

Lets hope ot continues

 

Like i say - i don't want to see AP go but unfortunately its not our decision.

 

But just to keep the moaning thread going, in the the current form guide for one game, we are nowhere near the top ;)

 

Don't we all just love statistics !

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Not so much, the paragraph in the Echo (and other local newsrags) is based on the public statement issued by NC and broadcast on Solent. The content is hard fact, just the way various people interpret it changes.

 

The fact that NC thought it necessary to issue public statement (and that's what it was) is fairly indicative in itself. He had something to say about our League results and wanted it to be generally known.Men like he don't tart about, not good enough means not good enough and not some wimpish gee up for the forthcoming cup games.

 

The Solent NC comment, word for word

 

When asked by reporter for his thoughts on week ahead

 

He said - that whilst a trip to wembley and progress in fa cup are nice things to have the reason for serious investment in the team is about getting into the league one play offs its our top priority, the latest league results have not been satisfactory against that objective and he looks forward to the team getting back to winning says against Norwich on Saturday.

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You're trying to prove something by lifting a paragraph from the Echo, brilliant. What a pratt!

 

 

Not really, it is what Cortese said. Get over it.

 

There were people on here claiming that the Echo fabricated what happened at the car showroom after the Pompey game to "sell papers" and everything.

 

People living in a world where everything the Echo says is, like, made up and stuff really are a bit dim.

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The Solent NC comment, word for word

 

When asked by reporter for his thoughts on week ahead

 

He said - that whilst a trip to wembley and progress in fa cup are nice things to have the reason for serious investment in the team is about getting into the league one play offs its our top priority, the latest league results have not been satisfactory against that objective and he looks forward to the team getting back to winning says against Norwich on Saturday.

 

and we did!

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Not really, it is what Cortese said. Get over it.

 

There were people on here claiming that the Echo fabricated what happened at the car showroom after the Pompey game to "sell papers" and everything.

 

People living in a world where everything the Echo says is, like, made up and stuff really are a bit dim.

 

Not saying it's made up. Just saying that if I wanted to quote a paper on, let's say, a news story, I would quote the Times, not the Mirror. In fact, I would quote anything, a little boy that lives down my street, that lying fuktard Piers Morgan, anyone, in front of the Echo, if I wanted to prove my point.

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Not saying it's made up. Just saying that if I wanted to quote a paper on, let's say, a news story, I would quote the Times, not the Mirror. In fact, I would quote anything, a little boy that lives down my street, that lying fuktard Piers Morgan, anyone, in front of the Echo, if I wanted to prove my point.

 

 

The fact that you think The Times has an established veracity over and above the Echo shows you know absolutely jack sh it about newspapers.

 

Cortese said it. Get over it.

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Oh, here we go, the "deniers" are back. There has been comments about aiming for the play offs all season, and Cortese said in on the radio not so long ago.

 

We are aiming for the play offs. We are aiming for the play offs. Stop pretending we're not.

 

We. are. aiming. for. the. play. offs.

Cortese said owner Markus Liebherr had made a significant investment - with nearly £2m thought to have been spent on players in January alone - and the reason for that was so Saints would make the playoffs.

Cortese added that recent league results have "not been satisfactory against that objective".

 

The Solent NC comment, word for word

 

When asked by reporter for his thoughts on week ahead

 

He said - that whilst a trip to wembley and progress in fa cup are nice things to have the reason for serious investment in the team is about getting into the league one play offs its our top priority, the latest league results have not been satisfactory against that objective and he looks forward to the team getting back to winning says against Norwich on Saturday.

 

can't remember exactly what the echo said but think they did interpret it rather than directly quote.

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