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The run in!!


thorpie the sinner

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I like the look of our last four fixtures especially. I can see us doing as follows: WDDWLWDWW = 18 points. Will that be good enough.

 

I think the way to look at it now is that it's been us and Huddersfield for 2nd place. (Peterborough could just about do it, but would need both Saints and Huddersfield to trip up badly)

 

The maths are therefore pretty simple. We need to get five more points than Huddersfield.

 

Huddersfield's remaining fixtures are:

 

Peterborough (H)

Charlton (A)

MK Dons (A)

Dag & Red (H)

Brighton (A)

Brentford (H)

 

work out what you think Huddersfield will get from that lot, add five, and that's what we need basically.

 

If you think Huddersfield are going to perform really badly, then take a look at Posh's games. However many points they get in seven games, we'd need to get one less in nine games.

 

I'd say we most likely need around 16 points for second spot.

 

21 points from the next 9 games makes promotion a mathematical certainty.

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21 points from the next 9 games makes promotion a mathematical certainty.

 

No it doesn't.

 

Huddersfield can can 91 points.

 

Saints have 68 points.

 

68 points plus 21 points = 89 points

 

I'd say we most likely need around 16 points for second spot.

 

That would mean Huddersfield getting

Edited by Matthew Le God
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The Posh game is very interesting...Posh Have to win to stay in the hunt for 2nd place...they are fully capable of going there and getting a couple of goals...

now that everyone is talking about hudders unbeaten run...this means it will soon come to an end..

 

remember every time they drop points means that we can (in addition to the 4 we can already drop)....I will be utterly amazed if huddersfield win all their games...

 

I think we will be able to drop 7-9 points....

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I think Huddersfield results, being quite pessimistic, will look something like this:

 

Peterborough (H) Win

Charlton (A) Win

MK Dons (A) Draw

Dag & Red (H) Win

Brighton (A) Lose

Brentford (H) Win

 

That would give them an additional 13 points, taking their total for the season to 86. If this were the case, for us to finish above them (ignoring goal difference) we would then have to gain an additional 19 points.

 

I think our results will be something like:

 

Charlton (H) Win

Leyton Orient (A) Win

Rochdale (A) Lose

Bristol Rovers (H) Win

Brighton (A) Lose

Hartlepool (H) Win

Brentford (A) Draw

Plymouth (A) Win

Walsall (H)Win

 

Which would gain us 19 more points, putting us on a total of 87 and 1 point above Huddersfield. I think it's going to be bloody close!

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even if we did lose all 3 of our "tough" away games...we only need Huddersfield to drop 5 points....and we SHOULD do it on goal difference (assuming they dont turn that around)

 

surely we can do this...? you can easily see hudders dropping 5 points playing brighton, posh, MK dons and Charlton....?????

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No it doesn't.

 

Huddersfield can can 91 points.

 

Saints have 68 points.

 

68 points plus 21 points = 89 points

 

 

 

That would mean Huddersfield getting

 

1. My bad...it's 23 points, sorry.

 

2. Yes. I think Huddersfield will probably get 10 points from those six games. But even if they get 11, our superior GD will win out.

Edited by SaintBobby
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even if we did lose all 3 of our "tough" away games...we only need Huddersfield to drop 5 points....and we SHOULD do it on goal difference (assuming they dont turn that around)

 

surely we can do this...? you can easily see hudders dropping 5 points playing brighton, posh, MK dons and Charlton....?????

 

I'm not sure this is right. Is it?

 

It's not really a matter of "dropping" points. It's how many points you can raise.

 

If Huddersfield "drop" 5 points, but we lose our three tough away games, then we've "dropped" 9 points, haven't we?

 

The basic maths (which I screwed up above) is that we need to win 5 points more than Huddersfield, with us having 9 games left and them having six.

 

That means the absolute worst case scenario is that they win 18 points and we need 23.

 

If you think they will drop 5 points, that means them getting 13 points from 6 games and we'd need 18 points from our remaining 9 games.

 

Despite their excellent form recently, they have a very tough set of fixtures, I'd probably put them to get ten points (W 3 D 1 L 2) or eleven points (W 3 D 2 L 1) , which would leave us needing 16 points to be promoted.

 

Barring some utterly mad results (e.g. Huddersfield winning their "win" games 6-0 and us only winning ours 1-0), our superior goal difference will hold good and that's worth 1/2 a point. So if we end up equal on points with them, we are almost certainly going to end up above them.

 

I think on balance I want Hudd v Posh to be draw. But if not I want Posh to win. A Hudd win is definitely the worst outcome.

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I think Huddersfield results, being quite pessimistic, will look something like this:

 

Peterborough (H) Win

Charlton (A) Win

MK Dons (A) Draw

Dag & Red (H) Win

Brighton (A) Lose

Brentford (H) Win

 

That would give them an additional 13 points, taking their total for the season to 86. If this were the case, for us to finish above them (ignoring goal difference) we would then have to gain an additional 19 points.

 

I think our results will be something like:

 

Charlton (H) Win

Leyton Orient (A) Win

Rochdale (A) Lose

Bristol Rovers (H) Win

Brighton (A) Lose

Hartlepool (H) Win

Brentford (A) Draw

Plymouth (A) Win

Walsall (H)Win

 

Which would gain us 19 more points, putting us on a total of 87 and 1 point above Huddersfield. I think it's going to be bloody close!

 

Don't ignore goal difference. If it does get bloody close, our superior GD cld be crucial.

 

I suppose one way to look at it is what will be the case as we enter our final game at home to Walsall?

 

There are a zillion permutations before then, but in order of likelihood (and ruling out extreme wins for any team such as a 14-0), I'd place the scenarios in order of likelihood as follows:

 

1. Saints need a draw to guarantee promotion

2. Saints need a win to guarantee promotion

3. Saints have already been promoted irrespective of the result

4. Saints need a win or a draw, but also need results elsewhere to go their way (e.g. a Huddersfield failure to beat Brentford)

5. Saints are mathematically incapable of making 2nd place

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Huddersfield will only get 7 more points I reckon and I think we'll get 18 more meaning we'll finished in 2nd 6 points clear on 86 points to Hudds 80.

 

I have a feeling we'll batter Brighton but lose to Plymouth for some reason.

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8 wins out of 9 gives us 92 points, definitely promoted allowing us one slip up. Every time Huddersfield drop points we are allowed one more slip up, that is how I am looking at it. I think we will do it but it will be close.

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I kind of don't. I think we will, but say we needed a point to clinch second and we're home last day, it'd be a sell out and an awesome day. Like Southend last day 06/07.

 

I suppose if we clinch it the game before it'd still be a party atmosphere though. Can't wait.

 

Knowing Saints, we'd lose. I'd happily take promotion at Plymouth with a sell out for the last game where we can just relax in the sun and enjoy it!

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A couple of interesting markets from the bookies

Skybet - Betting without Brighton (i.e. to come second)

1.53 Saints

3.25 Huddersfield

11.0 Peterborough

... would indicate we are more likely than not to get second and that it is between us and Huddersfield

Bet365 To make the playoffs

2.50 Saints

... given we must be in the top six this would indicate we are less likely to be in the playoffs than finish second

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Huddersfield are unbeaten in 2011, but they have drawn a lot of games. I can see their results in the run in going like this:

 

Peterborough (H) Draw

Charlton (A) Win

MK Dons (A) Draw

Dag & Red (H) Win

Brighton (A) Draw

Brentford (H) Win

 

Giving them 12 more points and a total of 85, meaning we would need 17 points from 9 games. easy!

 

Don't rule out Peterborough yet though

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Peterborough have by far the easiest 'run-in'. If they beat Huddersfield then they will be a big threat on the last day of the season it could hinge on goal difference.

 

Daggers away (win)

Udders away (draw)

Plimmuf home (win)

Orient away (draw)

Yovvil home (win)

'dale away (win)

Daggers home (win)

 

17 more points + 67 = 84

 

We would need 84-68 = 16

 

We have 5 difficult (yet winnable) away games and 4 at home - 4 x 3 if we win all at home = 12 therefore we would need a win and a draw from those away games - should be in the bag but its going to be exciting! If they beat Udders though then the target of another win away or three extra draws is daunting.

 

Its the unpredictability that make football so gripping!

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Why are we only talking about 2nd place??? 9 straight wins will give us 95 points........ and i think the league title!! Come on get real you know we can catch Brighton.

 

They will need to slip into relegation form if we were to catch them.

 

It isn't going to happen, we've been playing for 2nd for a good couple of months now and I'll be deleted when we get there.

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we'll beat Brighton, but we won't catch them.

 

I'm thinking that. By the time we play them they may well be promoted with only the title to worry about but too far ahead for it to be a concern.

 

They'll be well up for it whatever their situation. Then again, so will we but for different reasons.

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