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Would you take this?


Armitage Shanks

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No matter how many times I do the BBC predictor I have us getting promoted in second but only on goal difference over Huddersfield. Going into the last game we are level on points.

 

So if you were offered now the option of knowing that a win at home to Walsall on the last day would guarantee automatic promotion, would you take it?

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Probably, just on balance, I wouldn't take it.

 

My own view is that we should be enetring the last game in 2nd place - ahead on points.

 

The variance is pretty huge though - one unlucky bounce or missed penalty could change the lot.

 

Put another way, we are 2/7 to come second. I imagine we'd only be something like 1/2 or 2/5 to beat Walsall. I'd say those odds are about right, and so I'd prefer to be 2/7 over the 8 remianing games rather than 1/2 with one game left - although factoring in a possibel Huddersfield draw or defeat may make the odds near identical.

 

Not much in it.

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I still really hope and think that come final whistle at argyle we would got promotion that day or pit last game of the season with us needing at least 1 point.

 

However, if posh beat Huddersfield and we lose at the weekend, it will all be blown wide open again.

 

The argyle game is so crucial, our last game in hand and no one else is playing that day

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Being on an unknown part of the spectrum from automatic promotion guaranteed to automatic promotion being out of reach.

 

HTH

 

Well, I'd prefer automatic promotion as soon as possible, (der), but I have sufficient confidence in our team to take it from where we are now. I overhead two ladies on the way to the ground last Saturday: "Well Doreen, at least the lap of the gods are in our own hands now".

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I was just coming on here to start a thread about exactly the same thing. Just done the predictor now. One thing that strikes me is how tough Huddersfield's run-in is.

 

Huddersfield results:

 

Peterborough Home 2-2

Charlton Away 2-1 Win

MK Dons Away 1-1

Dag & Red Home 2-0 Win

Brighton Away 1-1

Brentford Home 2-0 Win

 

3 Wins, 3 Draws = 12 more points. 4th place with 85 Points.

 

Peterborough results:

 

Hudderfield Away 2-2

Plymouth Home 2-0 Win

Leyton Orient Away 2-1 Win

Yeovil Home 2-0 Win

Rochdale Away 2-1 Win

Dag & Red Home 2-0 Win

 

1 Draw, 5 Wins = 16 more points. 3rd place with 86 Points.

 

Saints results:

 

Leyton Orient Away 1-1

Rochdale Away 2-1 Win

Bristol Rovers Home 3-1 Win

Brighton Away 2-1 Loss

Hartlepool Home 2-0 Win

Brentford Away 1-1

Plymouth Away 2-1 Win

Walsall Home 2-1 Win

 

5 Wins, 2 Draws and 1 Loss = 17 more points. 2nd on 88 Points.

 

Brighton win league with 101 points. MK Dons (5th - 79 points) and Bournemouth (6th - 75 points) make up the rest of the play off contenders.

 

I've tried keeping my predictions pretty realistic hence the loss at Brighton and the draws to Leyton Orient and Brentford. We are bound to drop a few points we shouldnt between now and the end of the season.

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I still really hope and think that come final whistle at argyle we would got promotion that day or pit last game of the season with us needing at least 1 point.

 

However, if posh beat Huddersfield and we lose at the weekend, it will all be blown wide open again.

 

The argyle game is so crucial, our last game in hand and no one else is playing that day

I assume we want Posh to beat Huddersfield, normally a draw is best when 2 of your rivals are playing.

Saturday and next tuesday again are vital to us. The way the team performed last night showed a self belief that we could do it.

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I was just coming on here to start a thread about exactly the same thing. Just done the predictor now. One thing that strikes me is how tough Huddersfield's run-in is.

 

Huddersfield results:

 

Peterborough Home 2-2

Charlton Away 2-1 Win

MK Dons Away 1-1

Dag & Red Home 2-0 Win

Brighton Away 1-1

Brentford Home 2-0 Win

 

3 Wins, 3 Draws = 12 more points. 4th place with 85 Points.

 

Peterborough results:

 

Hudderfield Away 2-2

Plymouth Home 2-0 Win

Leyton Orient Away 2-1 Win

Yeovil Home 2-0 Win

Rochdale Away 2-1 Win

Dag & Red Home 2-0 Win

 

1 Draw, 5 Wins = 16 more points. 3rd place with 86 Points.

 

Saints results:

 

Leyton Orient Away 1-1

Rochdale Away 2-1 Win

Bristol Rovers Home 3-1 Win

Brighton Away 2-1 Loss

Hartlepool Home 2-0 Win

Brentford Away 1-1

Plymouth Away 2-1 Win

Walsall Home 2-1 Win

 

5 Wins, 2 Draws and 1 Loss = 17 more points. 2nd on 88 Points.

 

Brighton win league with 101 points. MK Dons (5th - 79 points) and Bournemouth (6th - 75 points) make up the rest of the play off contenders.

 

I've tried keeping my predictions pretty realistic hence the loss at Brighton and the draws to Leyton Orient and Brentford. We are bound to drop a few points we shouldnt between now and the end of the season.

Orient and Rochdale both have a big say in the promotion race.
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I was just coming on here to start a thread about exactly the same thing. Just done the predictor now. One thing that strikes me is how tough Huddersfield's run-in is.

 

Huddersfield results:

 

Peterborough Home 2-2

Charlton Away 2-1 Win

MK Dons Away 1-1

Dag & Red Home 2-0 Win

Brighton Away 1-1

Brentford Home 2-0 Win

 

3 Wins, 3 Draws = 12 more points. 4th place with 85 Points.

 

Peterborough results:

 

Hudderfield Away 2-2

Plymouth Home 2-0 Win

Leyton Orient Away 2-1 Win

Yeovil Home 2-0 Win

Rochdale Away 2-1 Win

Dag & Red Home 2-0 Win

 

1 Draw, 5 Wins = 16 more points. 3rd place with 86 Points.

 

Saints results:

 

Leyton Orient Away 1-1

Rochdale Away 2-1 Win

Bristol Rovers Home 3-1 Win

Brighton Away 2-1 Loss

Hartlepool Home 2-0 Win

Brentford Away 1-1

Plymouth Away 2-1 Win

Walsall Home 2-1 Win

 

5 Wins, 2 Draws and 1 Loss = 17 more points. 2nd on 88 Points.

 

Brighton win league with 101 points. MK Dons (5th - 79 points) and Bournemouth (6th - 75 points) make up the rest of the play off contenders.

 

I've tried keeping my predictions pretty realistic hence the loss at Brighton and the draws to Leyton Orient and Brentford. We are bound to drop a few points we shouldnt between now and the end of the season.

 

I think your predictions are pretty realistic.

 

If they turn out to be right, we will (to all intents and purposes), be promoted at Plymouth.

 

The last game of the season will be almost entriely irrelevant (if you're happy to discount the possibility of us losing 6-0 to walsall and Huddesrfield beating Brentford 8-0....or somethignn similarly mental)

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I think your predictions are pretty realistic.

 

If they turn out to be right, we will (to all intents and purposes), be promoted at Plymouth.

 

The last game of the season will be almost entriely irrelevant (if you're happy to discount the possibility of us losing 6-0 to walsall and Huddesrfield beating Brentford 8-0....or somethignn similarly mental)

 

Pretty sure I had it down at going right to the wire. If we lose to Walsall and Peterborough win at home to Dag & Red, they'll go up.

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I was just coming on here to start a thread about exactly the same thing. Just done the predictor now. One thing that strikes me is how tough Huddersfield's run-in is.

 

Huddersfield results:

 

Peterborough Home 2-2

Charlton Away 2-1 Win

MK Dons Away 1-1

Dag & Red Home 2-0 Win

Brighton Away 1-1

Brentford Home 2-0 Win

 

3 Wins, 3 Draws = 12 more points. 4th place with 85 Points.

 

Peterborough results:

 

Hudderfield Away 2-2

Plymouth Home 2-0 Win

Leyton Orient Away 2-1 Win

Yeovil Home 2-0 Win

Rochdale Away 2-1 Win

Dag & Red Home 2-0 Win

 

1 Draw, 5 Wins = 16 more points. 3rd place with 86 Points.

 

Saints results:

 

Leyton Orient Away 1-1

Rochdale Away 2-1 Win

Bristol Rovers Home 3-1 Win

Brighton Away 2-1 Loss

Hartlepool Home 2-0 Win

Brentford Away 1-1

Plymouth Away 2-1 Win

Walsall Home 2-1 Win

 

5 Wins, 2 Draws and 1 Loss = 17 more points. 2nd on 88 Points.

 

Brighton win league with 101 points. MK Dons (5th - 79 points) and Bournemouth (6th - 75 points) make up the rest of the play off contenders.

 

I've tried keeping my predictions pretty realistic hence the loss at Brighton and the draws to Leyton Orient and Brentford. We are bound to drop a few points we shouldnt between now and the end of the season.

 

Just out of interest why do you think Huddesfield will draw at MK Dons when they have beaten us, Peterborugh and Brighton at home. Why do you think they'll draw at Brighton and we will lose and Peterborough will beat orient and we will draw? I'd say we are as good as, if not better than P'Boro away. not saying you are wrong like, just like to understand your thinking. I called those game differently, MK Dons to beat Huddersfield, Brighton to beat us both and us and P'boro to draw at Orient.

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With our goal difference as it is, I'd accept being two points ahead of anyone going into the last game, knowing a draw is as good as a win.

 

The predictor is fun, but it's a) hard not to be biased, b) easier to do after this weekend after posh play udders and c) doesn't take into account freak results.

 

Off topic I tried, and failed, to create my own prediction league for my Gcse computing project. I didn't bother taking the exam knowing I'd fail anyway, and opted to play table tennis instead. I got a 'U'...

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Against what alternative ?

 

 

I assumed he meant against the position as it stands now.

 

I.E. The question is basically, which do you think is more likely:

 

1. Saints at least matching Huddersfield's result on the last day of the season (discounting Posh for sake of argument - which the OP seems to) or

2. Saints overtaking Huddersfield and Peterborough from where we stand today?

 

I think it's 2....just.

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With our goal difference as it is, I'd accept being two points ahead of anyone going into the last game, knowing a draw is as good as a win.

 

The predictor is fun, but it's a) hard not to be biased, b) easier to do after this weekend after posh play udders and c) doesn't take into account freak results.

 

Off topic I tried, and failed, to create my own prediction league for my Gcse computing project. I didn't bother taking the exam knowing I'd fail anyway, and opted to play table tennis instead. I got a 'U'...

 

 

What about one point ahead?

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Just out of interest why do you think Huddesfield will draw at MK Dons when they have beaten us, Peterborugh and Brighton at home. Why do you think they'll draw at Brighton and we will lose and Peterborough will beat orient and we will draw? I'd say we are as good as, if not better than P'Boro away. not saying you are wrong like, just like to understand your thinking. I called those game differently, MK Dons to beat Huddersfield, Brighton to beat us both and us and P'boro to draw at Orient.

 

Because I have supported Saints for almost 30 years and know that we dont do things the simple way. We are likely to drop points between now and the end of the season. If we are to lose a match it will probably be the Brighton game as their fans will be up for it and the players will be motivated. It could well be the game that crowns them as champs. I've not done the maths. I also think Brighton will be home and hosed by the time Huddersfield play them which is why I have them down for a draw as Brighton will want to avoid defeat but might not try as hard for the win.

 

I think the Huddersfield and MK Dons match will be a cagey affair as both teams will know if they attack and leave space at the other side has the ability to pick them off.

 

As for Peterborough's results, I also think they are unlikely but it's a worst case scenario for Saints. I couldnt give a monkeys how they perform between now and the end of the season as long as they dont achieve more than the 16 points I have forcasted for them.

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What about one point ahead?

 

I think all three of us, that is to say us, Posh and Huddersfield will win their respective last games. So yes. But Primark will be doing a roaring trade in fresh underwear.

 

The more comfortable we can make it by then, the better for all our hearts, nerves and boxer shorts.

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After Tuesdays upcoming game in hand at Rochdale, I firmly believe that 4 games after that we can afford to be 3 points off 2nd. After these 4 games we go into the last week of the season with that extra game away at Plymouth on the Monday. Surely with them already relegated we win and go 2nd going into the final game.

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I think we'll win every game between now and the end of the season. I've put £25 on us winning the league.

 

What odds did you get? You're pretty confident Brighton will drop 10 points in their last 8 games? That's like 3 wins and 5 draws or 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses?

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No matter how many times I do the BBC predictor I have us getting promoted in second but only on goal difference over Huddersfield. Going into the last game we are level on points.

 

So if you were offered now the option of knowing that a win at home to Walsall on the last day would guarantee automatic promotion, would you take it?

 

Of course I would take this, granted I would rather be ahead on points but going into a home game against Walsall knowing that 3 points would see us promoted would be great.

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No matter how many times I do the BBC predictor I have us getting promoted in second but only on goal difference over Huddersfield. Going into the last game we are level on points.

 

So if you were offered now the option of knowing that a win at home to Walsall on the last day would guarantee automatic promotion, would you take it?

 

Me too. I've got us losing at Rochdale and Brighton, and drawing at Orient and Brentford. Win the rest and I've got us going up on goal difference.

 

I'd take it. As long as we finish second, I'd take going up by goals scored!

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