Guided Missile Posted 17 October, 2014 Share Posted 17 October, 2014 Great article in the Times, here.The calculations made by Dr Henry Stott, Dr Mark Latham and Dr Kostas Paraschakis show that Southampton are on course to finish on 61 points. That is their expected number. At the beginning of the season we were expecting them to finish on 52 points, and this nine-point gain is bigger than any other club. In other words, Southampton are doing quite a bit better even than we expected them to on the basis of last year’s campaign and before they sold anyone.At the beginning of the season, Southampton had a 3 per cent chance of a top-four finish and a 7 per cent chance of a top-five finish. After all those sales, they have a (striking) 28 per cent chance of a Champions League slot and a 45 per cent chance of finishing in the top five. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNSUN Posted 17 October, 2014 Share Posted 17 October, 2014 I'd say it's 50/50. Either we do, or we don't. It'd be nice if we do though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Garrett Posted 17 October, 2014 Share Posted 17 October, 2014 Not convinced it's that high. Fixtures play a part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick Bateman Posted 17 October, 2014 Share Posted 17 October, 2014 To be fair, it's a win-win for the academics here. We finish top 5 and "hey, our new calculations were right". We finish 10th and "hey, our 55% showed that it was more likely they'd finish outside the top 5" Love utter guff stats like this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
positivepete Posted 17 October, 2014 Share Posted 17 October, 2014 We are still two points behind last seasons results, it is early days and to be fair we could well keep on improving as it seems the drive is there to do better not just to survive. I suppose the key will be how we cope with injuries and suspensions. We are picking up more yellow cards this season, partly because we are showing a willingness to pick up a booking for the team if we are under threat. Part of the winning mentality we seem to be developing. Let us hope the fink tank points prediction is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalek2003 Posted 17 October, 2014 Share Posted 17 October, 2014 Err...do they mean of staying up, surely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bucks Saint Posted 17 October, 2014 Share Posted 17 October, 2014 Great news. Preparing my litigation against the Times just in case they are wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SarniaSaint Posted 17 October, 2014 Share Posted 17 October, 2014 GM you read the Times!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buctootim Posted 17 October, 2014 Share Posted 17 October, 2014 Did they say what the scores would be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eelpie Posted 17 October, 2014 Share Posted 17 October, 2014 We have some top clubs still to play during this half of the season. Too early to predict on the basis of some relatively easy games so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadoldgit Posted 17 October, 2014 Share Posted 17 October, 2014 So no meltdown then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sammysaint Posted 18 October, 2014 Share Posted 18 October, 2014 I tell you what if we win today then I think top 7 is very achievable, however I doubt we will finish top 5 or 6, if Koeman can better last season finish and also take us 1 round further in each cup then poch did, it will be a fantastic season and a great platform for us to become a top 5/6 side and be a Spurs type club who finish between 7th and 5th every season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highfield Saint Posted 18 October, 2014 Share Posted 18 October, 2014 If you like the times article then you'll love this http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/10/10/6957007/premier-league-projections-week-7 Spurs web-site showing season projections and methodology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stevy777_x Posted 18 October, 2014 Share Posted 18 October, 2014 Err...do they mean of staying up, surely. What a troll, laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 18 October, 2014 Share Posted 18 October, 2014 What a troll, laughable. Trolls are only trolls if people respond to them.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilippineSaint Posted 18 October, 2014 Share Posted 18 October, 2014 If you like the times article then you'll love this http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2014/10/10/6957007/premier-league-projections-week-7 Spurs web-site showing season projections and methodology The only sensible bit of that was "Spurs and their compatriots just need to play better. That's how they'll move up the projected table." The rest was pure gibberish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Unbelievable Jeff Posted 18 October, 2014 Share Posted 18 October, 2014 That seems far too high to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonnyboy Posted 18 October, 2014 Share Posted 18 October, 2014 5th? Bite your hand off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
manina-pub Posted 18 October, 2014 Share Posted 18 October, 2014 3rd apparently.. http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/premierleague/league?sort=predicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 18 October, 2014 Share Posted 18 October, 2014 3rd apparently.. http://www.footballwebpages.co.uk/premierleague/league?sort=predicted 15 goals conceded all season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Without a Halo Posted 18 October, 2014 Share Posted 18 October, 2014 (edited) 57% chance of a top 4 finish here and 14.3% for the title and now only 0.4% chance of relegation and that was even before todays result this uses Monte Carlo to analyse a well established basis of analysis and was pretty accurate last year but has some bais to current form http://www.sportsclubstats.com/England/Southampton.html Edited 18 October, 2014 by Saint Without a Halo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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