Fitzhugh Fella Posted 21 March, 2009 Share Posted 21 March, 2009 Looking at the table tonight, contemplating our home form, the fact that matches are running out and considering many of our rivals are playing each other I would put our chances of staying up - percentage wise - at around 30%. Am I being too pessimistic/optimistic? If you had to seriously put your house on such a bet what (non gung-ho) chance would you opt for on us surviving? Anyone go above 50%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mole Posted 21 March, 2009 Share Posted 21 March, 2009 Our odds have now shortended to 6/4 ON to go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fitzhugh Fella Posted 21 March, 2009 Author Share Posted 21 March, 2009 Our odds have now shortended to 6/4 ON to go down. How does that work percentage wise? Sorry had a long day and the wine is kicking in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilsburydoughboy Posted 21 March, 2009 Share Posted 21 March, 2009 The self belief seems to have drifted out of Saints.I do wonder if the Lowe effect is dragging them down.Does he turn up at training still? I do wonder if the players are almost ashamed to be saints due to the ruddy faced one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mole Posted 21 March, 2009 Share Posted 21 March, 2009 How does that work percentage wise? Sorry had a long day and the wine is kicking in! A 67% chance of going down and a 33% chance of staying up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 21 March, 2009 Share Posted 21 March, 2009 Notts For and Plymouth now three straight defeats - that's my straw and am not letting go yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mole Posted 21 March, 2009 Share Posted 21 March, 2009 Notts For and Plymouth now three straight defeats - that's my straw and am not letting go yet! If we can go into the final game needing a draw for safety I think we could do it. If we need a win i don't think we'll stay up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buctootim Posted 21 March, 2009 Share Posted 21 March, 2009 Better than 50%. Plymouth and Notts F will go down imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRobbie Posted 21 March, 2009 Share Posted 21 March, 2009 We are going down. Too much damage done too early in the season to reverse the situation unless other teams around us implode. Thank you Rupert,JP and Mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 21 March, 2009 Share Posted 21 March, 2009 only thing that makes me have hope, is that you know the fans of the four teams above us will not be relaxed - looking at our game in hand and their poor form! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Rover Posted 21 March, 2009 Share Posted 21 March, 2009 Wouldn't put our chances at any better than 25%. Wotte is better than Poorto but stil not inspiring. He claimed that it took us 45 minutes plus to get our tactics / team right for playing on a crap pitch. As Dave Merrington said, the club have people to check these things out BEFORE the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kelkel31 Posted 21 March, 2009 Share Posted 21 March, 2009 i think it is 50 -50, i think we can get enough points in that last games(dont expect any predictions as to where they will come, this league is absolute madness) but i couldnt be sure that we will get the help from other teams around us, it is going to be tight what ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dannyboy_Saint Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 Win the game in hand by 2+ goals and we are out of the relegation zone. After that we have to match other teams results and we are safe. Easy to say i know but weve got as much chance of getting out of it as anyone else. The defence has been shored up and on their day Saga, Euell and McGoldrick are more than capable of giving us the goals to win games. Just need to get both parts of the team firing at the same time. Seems to be that we only score when we conceed and fail to score when we keep a clean sheet at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffton Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 Wouldn't put our chances at any better than 25%. Wotte is better than Poorto but stil not inspiring. He claimed that it took us 45 minutes plus to get our tactics / team right for playing on a crap pitch. As Dave Merrington said, the club have people to check these things out BEFORE the game. I heard that too. Also worried me when Wotte said he didn't concentrate on the other team, only Saints. Fair enough if we were beating allcomers easily but surely with a team in our position it would be wise to check out the opposition first?:smt017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
70's Mike Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 talking of our game in hand and games others have left to play is irrelevant because based on the last 3 displays , i am struggling to see who we are going to beat. If Charlton and Palace put 10 behind the ball and ask us to break them , i do not think we can. Games are running out , the damage was done in the first 25 games , and , although i hope to be wrong, i think we have had it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
70's Mike Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 Win the game in hand by 2+ goals and we are out of the relegation zone. After that we have to match other teams results and we are safe. Easy to say i know but weve got as much chance of getting out of it as anyone else. The defence has been shored up and on their day Saga, Euell and McGoldrick are more than capable of giving us the goals to win games. Just need to get both parts of the team firing at the same time. Seems to be that we only score when we conceed and fail to score when we keep a clean sheet at the moment. and it is going to change because ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fitzhugh Fella Posted 22 March, 2009 Author Share Posted 22 March, 2009 yea Mike - the last 3 games have been very dissapointing - we just don't seem able to win games we should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALWAYS_SFC Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 (edited) I heard that too. Also worried me when Wotte said he didn't concentrate on the other team, only Saints. Fair enough if we were beating allcomers easily but surely with a team in our position it would be wise to check out the opposition first?:smt017 Having had the dubious pleasure of a couple of chats with Wotte,i have come to the conclusion he is as arrogant and as egotistical as his boss and believes he knows best whatever the scenario.. Don`t like him.. Don`t rate him.. Don`t want him..whatever the outcome come May. Edited 22 March, 2009 by ALWAYS_SFC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingsbridge Saint Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 Our odds have now shortended to 6/4 ON to go down. 4/6 is the BEST price you will get if you wanted to back us to go down. We are as short as 1/2 at SkyBet. The writing is very much on the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lordswoodsaints Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 i reckon we have got another 9 points in us from 7 games giving us 47 points. i reckon we will finish 20th with plymouth,forest and charlton going down. charlton,watford and forest will be the crucial games,we will beat charlton and i would be satisfied with 2 points from watford and forest but i think we will beat watford. i could be wrong,i have been most of the season but i think we will be safer than most expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 4/6 is the BEST price you will get if you wanted to back us to go down. We are as short as 1/2 at SkyBet. The writing is very much on the wall. I looked at Sky Bet, can't see why you get better (or is it worse ) odds on Plymouth and Forest than on Norwich.Still I don't understand odds, just probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mole Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 I looked at Sky Bet, can't see why you get better (or is it worse ) odds on Plymouth and Forest than on Norwich.Still I don't understand odds, just probability. To convert a fraction to a percentage Divide the top number by the bottom number and multiply by 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRobbie Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 Having had the dubious pleasure of a couple of chats with Wotte,i have come to the conclusion he is as arrogant and as egotistical as his boss and believes he knows best whatever the scenario.. Don`t like him.. Don`t rate him.. Don`t want him..whatever the outcome come May. I echo that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Rover Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 To convert a fraction to a percentage Divide the top number by the bottom number and multiply by 100. Can you explan Schrödinger's equation while you're about it Stanley? I think it allows you to predict how close Saints are to winning a game at any moment in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sperm_john Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 40% is how confident I feel bout us staying up, just under half a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barney Trubble Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 Let's not forget that it went down to the last game too last season, so it's not like we are not going to be in a position that's new to us. We stayed up and see no reason why we can't do the same again. The teams around us are also poor so it's not like we are doomed yet, we have more control over our own destiny than some seem to be acknowledging, it's just that bit of application in front of goal that needs to be worked on. I'd like to see our historical record though at Nottingham Forest, I hope it's not one of those places that we never seem to win at. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 draw our game in hand - which seems to be our common result at the moment! we are then level with Notts Forest, and two points behind Norwich and Plymouth, and only 3 behind Barnsley. with 6 games left -still anyones guess. our current form has dropped off but is still better than Notts Forest - last games L, L, L, D Plymouth L, L, L, D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oz Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 pompey achieved odds of 20/1 ON a few years ago, yet they survived! keep the faith, coyr! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjii Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 I'd say it's about 40% at the moment. However, for the last couple of months of Poortvliet's reign I would have had it at about 5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 Having had the dubious pleasure of a couple of chats with Wotte,i have come to the conclusion he is as arrogant and as egotistical as his boss and believes he knows best whatever the scenario.. Don`t like him.. Don`t rate him.. Don`t want him..whatever the outcome come May. how does his record fair against pearsons after the same amount of games...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALWAYS_SFC Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 how does his record fair against pearsons after the same amount of games...? No idea...you tell me. All i can say is that Pearson was not involved at all before his tenure whereas Wotte has had some imput all season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 No idea...you tell me. All i can say is that Pearson was not involved at all before his tenure whereas Wotte has had some imput all season... i think he s doing better than pearson on ratio (points per game like people point out)...we also got a humping or two under pearson and had far better players Wotte is bot brilliant but is doing better than pearson with the first team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALWAYS_SFC Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 i think he s doing better than pearson on ratio (points per game like people point out)...we also got a humping or two under pearson and had far better players Wotte is bot brilliant but is doing better than pearson with the first team Let`s hope we stay up as all the rest is really irellevant and just opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 Can you explan Schrödinger's equation while you're about it Stanley? I think it allows you to predict how close Saints are to winning a game at any moment in time. Not sure that Stanley understands Quantum Mechanics,ask him about potted plants and he's your man though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffton Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 i think he s doing better than pearson on ratio (points per game like people point out)...we also got a humping or two under pearson and had far better players Wotte is bot brilliant but is doing better than pearson with the first team It really makes me laugh when people trot out this line, how can you possibly comapre the two? Different players, different games, different coaches, different chairmen, different bog roll probably! Its the worlds most flawed arguement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 It really makes me laugh when people trot out this line, how can you possibly comapre the two? Different players, different games, different coaches, different chairmen, different bog roll probably! Its the worlds most flawed arguement. pearson was brought up all season when jam was here.. i agree with your point though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Channon's Sideburns Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 Chances of survival? Less than 20%. How anyone can actually think we are now, after the whole season of stop-start performances, going to string a set of wins together are, at best becoming deluded. Lowe and Wilde have foooked us over big time this season..and to think that some were slagging Crouch off.....how wrong you were. History books will show that Lowe led us to the two most costly relegations in the history of Southampton Football Club. Askham...Richards, Windsor-Clive, Withers - is your boy still 'the man'?? Would come to you lot for professional advice....nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 draw our game in hand - which seems to be our common result at the moment! we are then level with Notts Forest, and two points behind Norwich and Plymouth, and only 3 behind Barnsley. with 6 games left -still anyones guess. our current form has dropped off but is still better than Notts Forest - last games L, L, L, D Plymouth L, L, L, D Chances of survival? Less than 20%. How anyone can actually think we are now, after the whole season of stop-start performances, going to string a set of wins together are, at best becoming deluded. Lowe and Wilde have foooked us over big time this season..and to think that some were slagging Crouch off.....how wrong you were. History books will show that Lowe led us to the two most costly relegations in the history of Southampton Football Club. Askham...Richards, Windsor-Clive, Withers - is your boy still 'the man'?? Would come to you lot for professional advice....nah. I agree there is nothing (apart from the positive blip a few weeks ago) to suggest we will pull a run together, but if we stay up I think it will be with not huge amount of points more than we have now - there is nothing to say that the other teams are going to string a series of wins together. We are now hard to beat - the only defeat in last 7, a one nil away to team in 2nd. My hope is that the form the others are in, the target may not be as high as thought a few weeks ago and odd win and draws will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krissyboy31 Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 I agree there is nothing (apart from the positive blip a few weeks ago) to suggest we will pull a run together, but if we stay up I think it will be with not huge amount of points more than we have now - there is nothing to say that the other teams are going to string a series of wins together. We are now hard to beat - the only defeat in last 7, a one nil away to team in 2nd. My hope is that the form the others are in, the target may not be as high as thought a few weeks ago and odd win and draws will do it. Still can't see less than 50 being enough. We've got to find at least 3 wins from somewhere, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 keep going back to the run in thread - everytime our target changes hugely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Wayman Posted 22 March, 2009 Share Posted 22 March, 2009 Odds on staying up are about 8.5 %, simply because only four teams are left in the fight for two safe places. Odds on the two who will survive staying up are 100%, odds on the two going down staying up are 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mole Posted 23 March, 2009 Share Posted 23 March, 2009 I think Corals have it about right. 33% to stay up, 67% to go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beancounter saint Posted 23 March, 2009 Share Posted 23 March, 2009 Call me pedantic but the way I understand it, 6/4 on represents a 40% chance of survival and 60% relegation. Evens would be 50% and 2/1 on 33% (survival chance). The conversion is to add the two nos together and then take any one of the two nos over the total depending on which side of the bet you are looking at. Of course the bookie is looking to make a margin as well so if they offer 6/4 on against relegation they really assess the odds of relegation as slightly lower than 60% and therefore survival at slightly higher than 40%. What do I think - well I like to be a bit optimistic so we'll say 51%!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eelpie Posted 23 March, 2009 Share Posted 23 March, 2009 We have been consistently erratic and I see no reason why this will change. I would have given us a 30% chance of surviving if the team always gave off their best, but too often they are out of sorts to start and then chasing to save the game. Sorry. Keep on fighting lads whilst there is ANY hope, because we are relying on Notts Forest, Norwich and Plymouth to implode, and you never know. But I fear Lowe has really fooked us up good and proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 23 March, 2009 Share Posted 23 March, 2009 We have been consistently erratic and I see no reason why this will change. I would have given us a 30% chance of surviving if the team always gave off their best, but too often they are out of sorts to start and then chasing to save the game. Sorry. Keep on fighting lads whilst there is ANY hope, because we are relying on Notts Forest, Norwich and Plymouth to implode, and you never know. But I fear Lowe has really fooked us up good and proper. and imploding they are.. forest and plymouth have lost their last 3 games....plymouth were way ahead of us not so long ago and I predicted they would go down.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DT Posted 23 March, 2009 Share Posted 23 March, 2009 Forest players call Davies Jimmy Cranky. Not looking good for them. But we need to be clear before the last day as they'll beat us up there. I think we're down. Lowe prevaricated for about two months too long before getting rid of the Dutch clown. The first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikec Posted 23 March, 2009 Share Posted 23 March, 2009 Call me pedantic but the way I understand it, 6/4 on represents a 40% chance of survival and 60% relegation. Evens would be 50% and 2/1 on 33% (survival chance). The conversion is to add the two nos together and then take any one of the two nos over the total depending on which side of the bet you are looking at. Of course the bookie is looking to make a margin as well so if they offer 6/4 on against relegation they really assess the odds of relegation as slightly lower than 60% and therefore survival at slightly higher than 40%. What do I think - well I like to be a bit optimistic so we'll say 51%!! You're right about the odds - 6/4 ON represents a 60% chance. You can't simply treat it as a fraction - otherwise the shorter the odds, the lower the probability would be (eg 10 to 1 ON would mean only a 10% chance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken Tone Posted 23 March, 2009 Share Posted 23 March, 2009 Blackpool's manager said after our game that they'd wanted a point from us, and that was what they achieved. He apparently thinks they need 2 more points to be safe. That would give them 49 points. Meanwhile we of course have 40 points with 7 games to go. Last 7 games: 3 wins, 1 defeat, 3 draws. Repeat that and we'd be easily safe IMO, and with 52 points, well above Blackpool's safety target. Just a pity it doesn't read 1 defeat, 3 draws then 3 wins, so we were on the up, but even so all is not yet lost. K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 23 March, 2009 Share Posted 23 March, 2009 30% chance is probably about right. Facts are we could win our game in hand and still not be out the bottom 3. Form wise we are OK so have a chance but we are on the ropes, one weekend of bad results could see us 6 points adrift. Charlton is a must win just to keep us in touch because Wolves and Watford away follow and I can't see us getting more than a point from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 23 March, 2009 Share Posted 23 March, 2009 30% chance is probably about right. Facts are we could win our game in hand and still not be out the bottom 3. Form wise we are OK so have a chance but we are on the ropes, one weekend of bad results could see us 6 points adrift. Charlton is a must win just to keep us in touch because Wolves and Watford away follow and I can't see us getting more than a point from them. I think we have 4 'must-wins' out of 7 games, and we don't want them to be the last 4 games, do we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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