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General election? June 8th?


trousers

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Aah Tory manifesto promises. Set in stone they are. Take em to the bank you could. I liked that 2010 one where they promised to reduce immigration to tens of thousands, managed by that nice slip of a girl Theresa May. Honest eyes she had

 

IIRC, the (main) Tory 'excuse' for not being able to fulfil that particular aspiration was because they didn't anticipate the UK's economic performance outstripping most (all?) EU countries, and much of the rest of the world, quite as much as it ended up doing in the 5 years or so after the financial crash of 2008. And, in order to sustain said growth, we needed to supplement the UK workforce with manpower from further afield. That, coupled with the natural tendency for EU citizens in countries whose economies are performing badly to migrate to other EU countries where the economy is more buoyant. In other words, the Tories' argument was that they were a victim of their own success in recovering the economy as well as they did.

 

Obviously their explanation is open to challenge and/or ridicule (as you'll witness on here after me writing this post :) ), and is no doubt at least partially flawed logic, but all I'm highlighting is they probably didn't wake up one morning after the 2010 election and think: "Ah...I know... let's just ignore our manifesto aspiration and encourage a load of economic migrants to come to the UK just for a laugh"... that's the sort of thing Tony Blair would do... ;)

Edited by trousers
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Not to mention. In 2010 there says a coalition government featuring two parties. Unsurprisingly there wasn't a coalition manifesto and some government decisions were from the Conservative manifesto, some were from the lib dems manifesto. Some, even had to be a decision between the two parties.

 

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Not to mention. In 2010 there says a coalition government featuring two parties. Unsurprisingly there wasn't a coalition manifesto and some government decisions were from the Conservative manifesto, some were from the lib dems manifesto. Some, even had to be a decision between the two parties.

 

 

Indeed. Which is why (IMO) the witch hunt against Clegg's tuition fees "u-turn" was illogical. Manifestos are a list of pledges/promises/aspirations that parties say they will put in place if they win the election outright. No one won the 2010 election outright ergo the manifestos ceased to be applicable thereafter (that's simple logic). When a coalition is formed you then come up with a compromise 'manifesto'. I'm not a member of the Nick Clegg fan club but the demonising of him and the lib dems over the tuition fees "promise" says more about the intellect of the demonisers than the supposed demons. In my humble opinion of course :)

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I'm going to stick my neck out and predict that, contrary to all the polls, the Tories won't win an overall majority...

 

You heard it here first (and probably last)

 

:)

If the Tories stick with their arrogant, non-debating, no questions approach, they will undoubtedly annoy plenty of voters.

 

Corbyn and Farron have little to lose and, for once, offer real alternatives.

 

I doubt that you'll be proved right, but it's possible.

 

And, just think, if she's forced into a coalition, May will have someone to blame as she heaves a sigh of relief and ditches Brexit. ?

 

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It's people being willfully ignorant. I a similar way to the student 'loans' system, where people fail to acknowledge that students only start paying it back once they start earning a certain amount. The amount you pay back is based on how much you earn, so only the students with the best qualifications on a huge salary will pay 100% back and the balance outstanding after 20 or 25 years (can't remember which) gets wiped out.

 

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Indeed. Which is why (IMO) the witch hunt against Clegg's tuition fees "u-turn" was illogical. Manifestos are a list of pledges/promises/aspirations that parties say they will put in place if they win the election outright. No one won the 2010 election outright ergo the manifestos ceased to be applicable thereafter (that's simple logic). When a coalition is formed you then come up with a compromise 'manifesto'. I'm not a member of the Nick Clegg fan club but the demonising of him and the lib dems over the tuition fees "promise" says more about the intellect of the demonisers than the supposed demons. In my humble opinion of course :)

I agree. The Link Dems never had the power by themselves to control tuition fees and this was a carefully planned attack, mainly by the Tories and their puppet press, to destroy or at least weaken the LibDems.

 

The​ problem was, they did it too well and got an overall majority, forcing them to stick by the manifesto promise to hold a referendum, which they never wanted, and assumed coalition partners would block for them.

 

But the rest is history, or history in the making. And a mess.

 

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IIRC, the (main) Tory 'excuse' for not being able to fulfil that particular aspiration was because they didn't anticipate the UK's economic performance outstripping most (all?) EU countries, and much of the rest of the world, quite as much as it ended up doing in the 5 years or so after the financial crash of 2008. And, in order to sustain said growth, we needed to supplement the UK workforce with manpower from further afield. That, coupled with the natural tendency for EU citizens in countries whose economies are performing badly to migrate to other EU countries where the economy is more buoyant. In other words, the Tories' argument was that they were a victim of their own success in recovering the economy as well as they did.

 

Obviously their explanation is open to challenge and/or ridicule (as you'll witness on here after me writing this post :) ), and is no doubt at least partially flawed logic, but all I'm highlighting is they probably didn't wake up one morning after the 2010 election and think: "Ah...I know... let's just ignore our manifesto aspiration and encourage a load of economic migrants to come to the UK just for a laugh"... that's the sort of thing Tony Blair would do... ;)

 

If the economy was so strong there was no reason for them to not fulfil another manifesto pledge - to cut the UKs debt pile. How did that turn out? Debt doubled irrc.,,

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If the economy was so strong there was no reason for them to not fulfil another manifesto pledge - to cut the UKs debt pile. How did that turn out? Debt doubled irrc.,,

Feel free to look up the differences between debt and defecit.

 

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If the economy was so strong there was no reason for them to not fulfil another manifesto pledge - to cut the UKs debt pile. How did that turn out? Debt doubled irrc.,,

 

I could be wrong (for a change) but I believe their core aspiration was to reduce the deficit rather than the debt per se. You obviously need to turn the deficit into a surplus before the debt starts coming down from the mega high levels they inherited. Are you suggesting they should have deployed even more "living within our means" measures over the last 7 years than they have done thus far in order to have brought the deficit down at a faster rate? One accepts that they haven't cleared the deficit as quickly as they'd hoped. Maybe they haven't been 'nasty' enough....? or maybe they should have tried squeezing more than c.25% of the country's tax receipts out of c.1% of the richest people in the land...?

 

Edit: just skim read their 2015 manifesto and it did indeed contain the aspiration to 'clear the deficit by the end of the parliament', so there was never a pledge to "cut the UKs debt pile" as such. The debt was always going to grow whilst the deficit still existed (which it could still have done under their manifesto pledge until the last minute of the last hour of the last day of the parliament)

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Feel free to actually look up the manifesto pledges

 

2010:

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7165000/conservative-manifesto.html

 

"A Conservative government will act now on debt to get the economy moving. We will deal with the deficit more quickly than Labour, so that mortgage rates stay lower for longer with the Conservatives."

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I agree. The Link Dems never had the power by themselves to control tuition fees and this was a carefully planned attack, mainly by the Tories and their puppet press, to destroy or at least weaken the LibDems.

 

The​ problem was, they did it too well and got an overall majority, forcing them to stick by the manifesto promise to hold a referendum, which they never wanted, and assumed coalition partners would block for them.

 

But the rest is history, or history in the making. And a mess.

 

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This is exactly what happened, there was never any intention of holding a referendum. It was going to be traded out during coalition talks. It did show how ukip didn't actually need MP's to influence policy. The fear of ukip costing them seats by either winning them outright or (more likely) splitting their vote , allowing lib dems or labour to win seats , made Cameron pledge a referendum.

 

 

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This is exactly what happened, there was never any intention of holding a referendum. It was going to be traded out during coalition talks. It did show how ukip didn't actually need MP's to influence policy. The fear of ukip costing them seats by either winning them outright or (more likely) splitting their vote , allowing lib dems or labour to win seats , made Cameron pledge a referendum.

 

 

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And I think it highly likely that the hierarchy of the Tory party are still trying to find an escape route that won't mortally wound them.

 

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And I think it highly likely that the hierarchy of the Tory party are still trying to find an escape route that won't mortally wound them.

 

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Simply "exercising the democratic will of the people" should do the trick.

 

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And I think it highly likely that the hierarchy of the Tory party are still trying to find an escape route that won't mortally wound them.

 

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We're 20 years away from it, but eventually the story will be told of the referendum they didn't really want and the referendum they really didn't want to win. The glum faces of Gove and Boris that morning will be the defining image of the age, eventually.

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Simply "exercising the democratic will of the people" should do the trick.

 

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52% of those who voted, 37% of "the people".

 

You carry on believing that the Government want Brexit, and we'll see.

 

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Those who can vote, but didn't. That's called abstention. That means you have to go with what the majority of voters chose

 

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I can't argue with that but I was flabbergasted to meet people who thought it was a referendum on leaving, so if they didn't vote, it meant they were for Remain.

 

That's a problem with democracy. It assumes everyone has the ability to analyse the options before voting and to understand the issues.

 

But don't say I'm undemocratic. It's better than the alternatives.

 

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car crash from labour on daily politics.

 

They were awful yesterday as well. Andrew Neil totally destroyed Harpersons old man. The bloke today was just embarrassing, and this line that the election is May trying to rig democracy is just bizarre. How is having an election rigging democracy, especially when you voted for it.

 

The problem they've got is that the half sensible half decent people they've got left,don't want to put their head above the parapet for Steptoe. Chucka couldn't even say that he thought Corbyn would make a good PM on This Week last night. They're left with head bangers like Abbott & second rate nobodies. Even Foot in '83 had some heavyweights batting for him, now they've either abandoned ship or are keeping their heads down.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Mike Kane. Labour's Education spokesman. I know politicians of all hues are experts at avoiding the question but that was an absolute masterclass from him.

 

https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&vertical=default&q=mike%20kane&src=typd

 

You have to keep in mind that there's far better talent on the Labour backbenches than the sorry parade of Corbynist nincompoops presently embarrassing themselves on radio and TV. As the election campaign progresses, you might start to see and hear more from those backbenchers, because many are seduced by the fervent hope that Corbyn will pack his bags after heavy defeats on 4 May and 8 June - and they'll be jockeying for position in a rejuvenated post-cult party.

 

Sadly, Corbyn himself has no intention of resigning no matter how bad things get - and his minions are already putting up the excuses ('evil MSM' mostly). Besides, those propping Corbyn up don't want him to leave until the party's leadership election rules have been rigged in favour of the far left, and that can't happen until Autumn at the earliest.

 

But you never know, events might finally do Corbyn in - and you could get your dearest wish of a post-election parliamentary Labour party that will really start being a credible opposition, doing actual damage to a Tory party locked in the grip of economic extremism.

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They were awful yesterday as well. Andrew Neil totally destroyed Harpersons old man. The bloke today was just embarrassing, and this line that the election is May trying to rig democracy is just bizarre. How is having an election rigging democracy, especially when you voted for it.

 

The problem they've got is that the half sensible half decent people they've got left,don't want to put their head above the parapet for Steptoe. Chucka couldn't even say that he thought Corbyn would make a good PM on This Week last night. They're left with head bangers like Abbott & second rate nobodies. Even Foot in '83 had some heavyweights batting for him, now they've either abandoned ship or are keeping their heads down.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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There are obvious problems for them at all levels.

 

Corbyn has launched into the campaign in the style of a personal crusade like his leadership bids. This will be popular with Labour Party members - they voted him in - but, beyond that, who knows.

 

The problem is the vast majority of his candidates don't subscribe to his socialism and/or don't believe it'll get them elected. Asked immediately after the announcement of the election whether Corbyn was an asset or liability to the party, one MP couldn't answer. Although, if they were as genuine and committed as Corbyn, I think they might do surprisingly well on that platform. So they're in limbo, not able to support their leader, not singing from the same hymn sheet and it's unlikely that their agenda will form the manifesto, so they won't be campaigning in line with official policy. God knows whether they can get elected on that basis.

 

And it looks like Jeremy is too committed to his one-man evangelical campaign to countenance supporting a broad church within the party. Or will he endorse candidates he knows are opposed to him and will want him out as soon as the election is lost?

 

Labour isn't one party. It's as divided as you can get, so yes, a real car crash.

 

 

 

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The problem for labour moderates is the worst Corbyn does the easier it is for another extreme left candidate to replace him. The less MP's they have the less they'll need to go forward to the membership, a membership where head banging lefties are in the majority. Steptoe or McDonnall couldn't teach the threshold at the moment (which is why they want the % lowered) but if they lose 60/70 Mp's they probably could, especially as the ones they lose are likely to be moderates. I honestly think it's a win win for the nutty end of the party. Corbyn does better than expected , he stays. It's a bloodbath and he goes , but the numbers mean another head banger will go to the membership & we know what they'll do. Add to that the fact that lots of talent have jumped ship, and you're left with the party in a pretty sorry state, even if Steptoe goes . I bet the planks who nominated Steptoe just to broaden the debate are still kicking themselves , they are the ones who have brought this upon the party, them and that ****ing idiot Milliband who changed the rules.

 

 

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That's amazing. Never had a phone that auto-wrongs spelling.

 

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Oh please. you've got a pixel. You should know If you don't use the stock keyboard, you can get ones that concentrate on speed rather than accuracy. hence they don't catch every misspelled word.

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Oh please. you've got a pixel. You should know If you don't use the stock keyboard, you can get ones that concentrate on speed rather than accuracy. hence they don't catch every misspelled word.

I'm old-school. I check my own spelling. And I can spell. And why wouldn't you use a standard keyboard?

 

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I'm old-school. I check my own spelling. And I can spell. And why wouldn't you use a standard keyboard?

 

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The google stock keyboard takes up too much screen real estate.

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CON: 50% (+4) LAB: 25% (-) LDEM: 11% (-) UKIP: 7% (-2) (via ComRes)

 

CON: 48% (-) LAB: 25% (+1) LDEM: 12% (-) UKIP: 5% (-2) (via YouGov)

 

And the real kick in the balls for Corbyn

 

Who would you trust to manage the NHS?

Theresa May 29%

Jeremy Corbyn 26%

(via YouGov)

Edited by Nolan
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Comres poll tonight has Tories on 50% & that's with UKIP on 7% . Once the campaign is in full swing & May's UKIP Brexit is factored in, most of those votes will switch to Tory. Historically polls have also tended to underestimate Tory support . This is going to be a bloodbath unless May has the worst campaign ever seen in political history and even if she does, she'll still have a majority.

 

 

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CON: 50% (+4) LAB: 25% (-) LDEM: 11% (-) UKIP: 7% (-2) (via ComRes)

 

CON: 48% (-) LAB: 25% (+1) LDEM: 12% (-) UKIP: 5% (-2) (via YouGov)

Opinium:

 

Con 45%, Lab 26%, LibDem 11%, UKIP 9%

 

Certainly a landslide on those figures. UKIP collapsing, Labour going nowhere, Tories steady, LibDem up but not massive.

 

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Scottish Sunday times numbers pointing to Conservatives winning 12 seats in Scotland. Labour losing their only current seat.

 

Scottish Westminster voting intention:

 

SNP: 43% (-7)

CON: 28% (+13)

LAB: 18% (-6)

LDEM: 9% (+1)

(via Survation / chgs with GE2015)

 

Whole UK

CON: 40% (+2)

LAB: 29% (-)

LDEM: 11% (+1)

UKIP: 11% (-2)

(via Survation / chgs with Jan)

Edited by Nolan
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I'd be interested in Welsh polling numbers because they voted for Brexit and there's about a dozen Labour seats with a majority of less than 5,000. One report I read today was that the Tories were considering seats with 8,000 labour majorities as winnable across the UK. I guess it all depends on whether sitting MP's can hang on by highlighting the local work they've done and distancing themselves from Steptoe. I bet the last thing they want is him & Abbott on the tv day after day.

 

 

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I'd be interested in Welsh polling numbers because they voted for Brexit and there's about a dozen Labour seats with a majority of less than 5,000. One report I read today was that the Tories were considering seats with 8,000 labour majorities as winnable across the UK. I guess it all depends on whether sitting MP's can hang on by highlighting the local work they've done and distancing themselves from Steptoe. I bet the last thing they want is him & Abbott on the tv day after day.

 

 

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Corbyn is on Marr in the morning. May be worth getting up for.

 

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What's wrong with golf courses?

 

7c108e1490956be76dba111ef7151625.jpg

 

You've highlighted labours problem right there. UKIP have assorted nutters that have their wacky views exposed at election time. These people are nobodies that have no chance of getting elected but Nigel or Suzanne get asked about these nutty views time and time again. The problem labour have is the nutty views aren't some golf club bore's or some tin foil wearing loon's standing in some obscure part of the country, but the leader and his leadership team's views. There's a picture doing the rounds on social media tonight of Steptoe behind bars in a publicity stunt to raise money for the H block hunger strikers. I know it's 30 odd years old, but it's still not going to play well, and will of course be the first question asked next time a labour bod is interviewed.

 

 

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This election is going to be harder to call than most others before it. There are far more dimensions to it than traditional party politics - Brexit, Scottish independence / breakup of UK etc. A lot of voters will be feeling conflicted. I think the Tories will win and win well, but there will be some bigger surprises than usual on the night imo.

 

Edit. Big range in the polls published today. Tory lead over Labour ranges from a massive 25% to a catchable 11%.

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Farron playing us for chumps today. Rules out going into coalition with May's Tories or Corbyn's Labour Party. Obviously he's hoping that the story that will run is he rules out any coalition, but he actually hasn't done that, just one if May or Steptoe are leaders

 

 

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