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Alternate History - morbid reading for a monday!


Crab Lungs

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Was engrossed reading an alternate history forum the other day - all the possibilities, theories and opinions from a broad spectrum of knowledgable and some not-so knowledgable people. Regardless, it was an entertaining read which really left me wondering "what if" - so I wondered if anyone else had contributed or was at least interested in 'alternate history' theories?

 

http://www.alternatehistory.com/

http://www.atomicarchive.com/Example/Example1.shtml

 

So, without further adieu, the first 'what if' - and serious answers only please - what if, say, terrorists deemed Southampton an easy and viable target and detonated a stolen russian nuclear bomb (50kt) in the city, say outside Fawley PP? What would our government response be? How would the local emergency services counter-act this? What would be the response be from the international community, in particular the United States and our 'allies?' What would be the damage and casualty count be? What about the fallout? Where would citizens be evacuated to?

 

Of course, thankfully this is only for hypothetical reasons but I'd have to wonder exactly what would happen if it were our city? If that is a little too 'close to the bone' then I apologise, but after reading a myriad of interesting and varied responses from that forum, I know there is plenty of intelligent and 'clued-up' posters on here who could give an equally measured and realistic explanation of events as they unfold :-o

 

Don't know if I've broken any rules here with this topic, though I have skimmed the forum guidelines and couldn't find anything which indicated that this topic is a breach of forum rules, though delete this if so. Morbid topic, but genuinely curious...

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OK, it is a 'what if' then...

 

As for Sealion... the window of opportunity for the germans was very, very short. They simply had to win the Battle of Britain to stand any chance.

 

I'd imagine that they would seriously have to reconsider helping the Italians in North Africa/balkans (might be wrong here) and pooling their resources from their other operational theatres (Barborossa etc.)

 

It's still bizarre as to why Hitler stopped prematurely when they could have blitzed BEF/allies at Dunkirk... some believe that had we been routed, we might have never recovered and would have paved the way for an invasion soon after by paratroopers on the UK mainland. That said, the germans would have also have had to established quite a naval presence/invasion force in the channel too to follow up any invasion by air. In fact, they'd proably have to dominate the channel to counter the RN.... no mean feat if achieved. Would that have been possible? (I'm assuming if they had taken control of some of the french naval vessels it may have been possible?)

 

How far would the germans have got, assuming they had total control over the airspace of the UK? Would they have only been able to establish a beach head and nothing more?

Edited by Crab Lungs
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OK, it is a 'what if' then...

 

As for Sealion... the window of opportunity for the germans was very, very short. They simply had to win the Battle of Britain to stand any chance.

 

I'd imagine that they would seriously have to reconsider helping the Italians in North Africa/balkans (might be wrong here) and pooling their resources from their other operational theatres (Barborossa etc.)

 

The established view of the BofB is that the Luftwaffe scored their major own goal when they stopped blitzing the sector stations, they didn't realise that the RAF was on it's knees. The major 'what if' is how effective the Home Fleet might have been in blocking an invasion if the enemy had air superiority.

 

As for the Eyeties, etc, the Balkans campaign and Barbarossa weren't until 1941; the original start date for the invasion of the USSR was 15 May 1941, but because the Italians got screwed over in Greece & Albania, the Germans had to divert through Yugoslavia to assist them. The consequences of this were (1) the British diverted troops to Greece and Crete who would otherwise have been involved in North Africa, which took the pressure of the Axis there, ( the Afrika Korps having started arriving in February 1941 ), and (2) the start date for Barbarossa went back to the end of June, which meant that winter had set in before they reached Moscow & Leningrad;- what if they had kicked off on the original date, 5 weeks earlier, would the Russians have folded had they lost those 2 cities ?

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The established view of the BofB is that the Luftwaffe scored their major own goal when they stopped blitzing the sector stations, they didn't realise that the RAF was on it's knees. The major 'what if' is how effective the Home Fleet might have been in blocking an invasion if the enemy had air superiority.

 

As for the Eyeties, etc, the Balkans campaign and Barbarossa weren't until 1941; the original start date for the invasion of the USSR was 15 May 1941, but because the Italians got screwed over in Greece & Albania, the Germans had to divert through Yugoslavia to assist them. The consequences of this were (1) the British diverted troops to Greece and Crete who would otherwise have been involved in North Africa, which took the pressure of the Axis there, ( the Afrika Korps having started arriving in February 1941 ), and (2) the start date for Barbarossa went back to the end of June, which meant that winter had set in before they reached Moscow & Leningrad;- what if they had kicked off on the original date, 5 weeks earlier, would the Russians have folded had they lost those 2 cities ?

 

IMO then yes, the germans would have pushed through.

 

Half the reason that they had so many losses at their eastern front was because of the extreme winter and the fact that they were ill equiped.

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Not really alternate history, lungs, is it? My personal interest has always been if we lost the Battle of Britain and operation Sealion was a success... read many interesting theories in the past.

 

Britain would have been occupied for maybe two years until the Red Army advance began to threaten the German homeland. Then they would have been forced to withdraw troops from the furthest reaches of their empire to defend Germany. Countries like Britain and Norway would probably have been first.

 

If we were to assume Germany had also conquered Russia, I think Europe would have ended up much like the Soviet Union in many ways. After several decades of occupation, policitcal differences within the Nazi leaders in different European countries would have lead to revolution and independance, much like many of the former Soviet states.

 

In the latter scenario, it would be interesting to see what impact a lack of Soviet interference would have had on countries like Vietnam, Korea and Afghanistan. Israel would certainly not have been created. This in turn would have meant relative stability in the Middle East and there probably wouldn't have been any hostilities between the USA and several arab states.

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Not really alternate history, lungs, is it? My personal interest has always been if we lost the Battle of Britain and operation Sealion was a success... read many interesting theories in the past.

 

I've always thought the British people are better at standing up for others than they are standing up for themselves. Had the Germans invaded the mainland I don't think it would have long before the civilians shrugged their shoulders and got on with life with a grudging acceptance, much as they did on the Channel Islands.

 

Dad's Army not withstanding of course :rolleyes:

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Britain would have been occupied for maybe two years until the Red Army advance began to threaten the German homeland. Then they would have been forced to withdraw troops from the furthest reaches of their empire to defend Germany. Countries like Britain and Norway would probably have been first.

 

If we were to assume Germany had also conquered Russia, I think Europe would have ended up much like the Soviet Union in many ways. After several decades of occupation, policitcal differences within the Nazi leaders in different European countries would have lead to revolution and independance, much like many of the former Soviet states.

 

In the latter scenario, it would be interesting to see what impact a lack of Soviet interference would have had on countries like Vietnam, Korea and Afghanistan. Israel would certainly not have been created. This in turn would have meant relative stability in the Middle East and there probably wouldn't have been any hostilities between the USA and several arab states.

if we had been overrun in 1940 the germans would have taken russia in their initial push in 1941 Imo, as they would not have had so many troops posted on the french coasrt and also their airf ofrce would have had more resources
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It is oft overlooked that Hitler really didn't want to go to war with the British Empire and several historians have argued that Hitler's pause on the Par De Calais was him giving the opportunity for it to get out of the war with its honour intact.

 

Operation Sea Lion was always a non starter as Hitler had always had the destruction of the Soviet Union as his main aim and the Wermacht never had the lift capacity for an invasion.

 

British intransigence as well as Italian incompetence following the summer of 1940 ultimately resulted in the delay of Barbarossa and the failure of the Winter 41/42 Eastern offensive which allowed the USSR time to regroup, reorganise and turn the tide in winter 42/43.

 

The real "what if" to be revolves around Pearl Harbour and Japans entry into the war.

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if we had been overrun in 1940 the germans would have taken russia in their initial push in 1941 Imo, as they would not have had so many troops posted on the french coasrt and also their airf ofrce would have had more resources

 

I think D-day showed the massive amount of time and resources it takes to prepare a successful beach invasion. I don't think the Germans could have conquered the Soviet Union AND succesfully invaded Britain at the same time. If the invasion had been succesful, a lot of troops would have been needed to occupy Britain, probably as many as were posted in Northern France in real life.

 

Even in a straight fight between Germany and Russia, Russia is a big place with a massive army. I'd still have put my money on Russia.

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Had D-day not happened as a result of German occupation and the Russians done what they did anyway in terms of pushing the Wermacht back to Berlin, would they have continued westwards, riding roughshod over any peace agreements and invaded Britain themselves, thereby causing a US conflict in the late 40s?

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An interesting point to note is, if WWII had ended differently, would we actually "all be speaking German by now" as some people like to say? Just because the Germans would have won that doesn't mean we would all have started to speak German, surely? Some people are not capable of learning another language. They maybe to old to pick it up. The Germans would not have been able to enforce a "German only" approach to language in people's houses and there would always be underground newspapers and radio stations. Plus, you can get stations from abroad and in todays satelitte age we would have had loads of American TV.

 

On a similar note, would the die hard British things like steak and chips have disappeared? The things that make us us? Do Nazi's like Fish and Chips? If the Nazis had said "No, you will not eat fish and chips, but instead you will have Bratwurst" does this mean we would have started to eat differently?

 

In fact, I don't think life would be too much different if we were Nazi Britian than it is today. We'd still speak English and eat fish and chips and instead of just moaning about blacks, Asians, disabled and gay people and Jews, we'd just kill them.

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An interesting point to note is, if WWII had ended differently, would we actually "all be speaking German by now" as some people like to say? Just because the Germans would have won that doesn't mean we would all have started to speak German, surely? Some people are not capable of learning another language. They maybe to old to pick it up. The Germans would not have been able to enforce a "German only" approach to language in people's houses and there would always be underground newspapers and radio stations. Plus, you can get stations from abroad and in todays satelitte age we would have had loads of American TV.

 

On a similar note, would the die hard British things like steak and chips have disappeared? The things that make us us? Do Nazi's like Fish and Chips? If the Nazis had said "No, you will not eat fish and chips, but instead you will have Bratwurst" does this mean we would have started to eat differently?

 

In fact, I don't think life would be too much different if we were Nazi Britian than it is today. We'd still speak English and eat fish and chips and instead of just moaning about blacks, Asians, disabled and gay people and Jews, we'd just kill them.

 

A fair warning to not vote BNP there, TBF.

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Some fascinating speculation above which demonstrates some in depth reading and thought from many.Well done.

 

As a further piece of conjecture, WHAT IF Archduke Ferdinand's car had not made a detour on that day in June 1914,or Gavrillo Princip not been so accurate in his shooting ?

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I think D-day showed the massive amount of time and resources it takes to prepare a successful beach invasion.

 

It’s interesting you should say this because Stalin asked the USA to open the western front in 1942 to relieve pressure on the Soviet Union seeing that was where most of the Nazis aggression in Europe was at the time. Yet it took 2 years for the USA to do this.

Yes I may be looking at it from a communist point of view but does it really take that long to launch a beach invasion? Or was the USA deliberately allowing the Nazis to weaken the Soviet Union before opening up the Weston front. Seeing that there was already tension between the two nations and it looked likely that if the Nazis were defeated there would be a major power struggle in Europe the USA would surely take any advantage they could get.

But what interests me though is what if diplomacy over the Cuban missile crisis hadn’t worked and the planned ground invasion had happened? Would it have been the start of a nuclear war? or would the Soviet Union of backed down?

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Some fascinating speculation above which demonstrates some in depth reading and thought from many.Well done.

 

As a further piece of conjecture, WHAT IF Archduke Ferdinand's car had not made a detour on that day in June 1914,or Gavrillo Princip not been so accurate in his shooting ?

 

Well for a start, germany would not have been crippled by th etreaty of versailles, and an angry Hitler would not perhaps have gained his ideology. Germany would still have its pride and wealth and perhaps nazism would never have taken hold in the 30's and WW2 never would have happened. Alot of people think if the first hadn't happen, the second wouldn't have either. Then again, the Nazi rise in Germany was probably more due to the Wall Street Crash... so how does everyone think the world would have been different if the Wall Street Crash hadn't happened?

Edited by Saintandy666
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Some fascinating speculation above which demonstrates some in depth reading and thought from many.Well done.

 

As a further piece of conjecture, WHAT IF Archduke Ferdinand's car had not made a detour on that day in June 1914,or Gavrillo Princip not been so accurate in his shooting ?

 

There was a war brewing, regardless of a few well aimed shots in Serbia.

 

It would have just taken another trigger.

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So, without further adieu, the first 'what if' - and serious answers only please - what if, say, terrorists deemed Southampton an easy and viable target and detonated a stolen russian nuclear bomb (50kt) in the city, say outside Fawley PP? What would our government response be? How would the local emergency services counter-act this? What would be the response be from the international community, in particular the United States and our 'allies?' What would be the damage and casualty count be? What about the fallout? Where would citizens be evacuated to?

 

That isn't alternative history, that example is more a "what if future"

 

Alternative history is things like if Hitler won the war like in Richard Harris "Fatherland" novel. A brilliant book and also a good TV movie with Miranda Richardson of Blackadder fame.

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That isn't alternative history, that example is more a "what if future"

 

Alternative history is things like if Hitler won the war like in Richard Harris "Fatherland" novel. A brilliant book and also a good TV movie with Miranda Richardson of Blackadder fame.

 

The jist of your post was covered in post #3

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Operation Sealion was never a serious option because a major naval operation on that scale would have required a major navy to undertake it .

 

During the critical months in the summer of 1940 when the invasion could feasibly have been undertaken (August - September) due to heavy losses sustained in the Norwegian campaign the German navy was reduced to about 10 destroyers and a few torpedo boats - by comparison the RN (in home waters alone) had around 70 destroyers available backed by significant numbers of cruisers and battleships . The Luftwaffe would have doubtless been a formidable opponent to our navy but aircraft of this era were largely ineffective at night - exactly when the RN would have intervened in all likelihood .

 

Had the improvised and virtually undefended invasion convoys of river barges and tugs ever set sail they would have been slaughtered frankly .

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as View from the top said...Hitler (against other wishes) really did not want to go toe-to-toe with Britain and the Empire...he wanted us to stay out of it in Europe and he would have left us to overseas so to speak...how long this mutual respect would have lasted is another question.

 

Hitler was right to be cautious of us as we had a might armed forces all over the world..massive Air force, Army and Navy...we controlled the Straits of Gibraltar which was massively important and many other strategic points around the world..

 

History tells us that old Adolf nearly beat us....but he never.

 

what would have it all been like if he won...well, as someone said, probably years of an Empire in Europe, but it would have split at some point by now...ruling with an iron fist like that would not have lasted too long (in empire terms) imo..

 

thank god for Winston Churchill, HM Armed Forces and the Great British Public 70 years ago

Edited by Thedelldays
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as View from the top said...Hitler (against other wishes) really did not want to go toe-to-toe with Britain and the Empire...he wanted us to stay out of it in Europe and he would have left us to overseas so to speak...how long this mutual respect would have lasted is another question.

 

Hitler was right to be cautious of us as we had a might armed forces all over the world..massive Air force, Army and Navy...we controlled the Straits of Gibraltar which was massively important and many other strategic points around the world..

 

History tells us that old Adolf nearly beat us....but he never.

 

what would have it all been like if he won...well, as someone said, probably years of an Empire in Europe, but it would have split at some point by now...ruling with an iron fist like that would not have lasted too long (in empire terms) imo..

 

thank god for Winston Churchill, HM Armed Forces and the Great British Public 80 years ago

 

Never a truer sentence written. Except fo TDD maths

Edited by saint_bert
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It’s interesting you should say this because Stalin asked the USA to open the western front in 1942 to relieve pressure on the Soviet Union seeing that was where most of the Nazis aggression in Europe was at the time. Yet it took 2 years for the USA to do this.

Yes I may be looking at it from a communist point of view but does it really take that long to launch a beach invasion? Or was the USA deliberately allowing the Nazis to weaken the Soviet Union before opening up the Weston front. Seeing that there was already tension between the two nations and it looked likely that if the Nazis were defeated there would be a major power struggle in Europe the USA would surely take any advantage they could get.

But what interests me though is what if diplomacy over the Cuban missile crisis hadn’t worked and the planned ground invasion had happened? Would it have been the start of a nuclear war? or would the Soviet Union of backed down?

 

I don't think the crisis would ever have gotten to that stage. Both sides were desperate for an excuse to back down without losing face. Afterall, nobody wins a nuclear war. Even if there was a conflict, I don't think nukes would have been involved. I would guess at a Falklands style battle between two larger countries over a small island. I would imaginge the US would have won fairly quickly and convincingly given their proximity to Cuba.

 

It is ironic that the most destructive weapon ever made has infact prevented major conflict between any nation equiped with it.

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It is also worth thinking about what would have happened had we lost the falklands ???

 

IMO we would seriously dented our military power at that time and removed us from being one of the major players.

 

It could have had major consequences

 

It could be argued that Britain has only been a major player for the last 60 years in the minds of the British.

 

A wonderful example is the faked H Bomb test in the 50s, when we realised that the US and Russia had left the UK standing. We didn't have the know how or money to copy the Russian style bomb. The first two tests failed to go off, and so for the third, patriotic scientists strapped a million tonnes of TNT together and created the worlds biggest ever A bomb, and told the world 'look, there's our hydrogen bomb, can we join the elite club now?' This was kept secret up until the mid-90s when a load of documents got declassified.

 

Who needs alternate history when the real thing still manages to throw up so many surprises?

 

And for a far more worrying example of 'alternate history', just look at the Russians and their relation to Stalin, his image is being given a white-wash in Putin's programme of 'positive history'. Books which mention the millions of people he killed are being banned, and new history books are being sent to schools which claim the US and the UK tried to make peace with Hitler until 1941 when the Russians declared war and saved the world. We can laugh, but this is the version of events hundreds of millions of people will believe for the next generation at least.

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There was a war brewing, regardless of a few well aimed shots in Serbia.

 

It would have just taken another trigger.

 

Britain and Germany had been 'itching' to have a go at each other for some years to establish naval superiority in the world and protect their trade interests,so I'm sure you are right.

 

The Balkans were also a powderkeg waiting to go off.

 

Its a question then of where the first spark might have happened,and depending on this would so many countries have become embroiled in it ?

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And for a far more worrying example of 'alternate history', just look at the Russians and their relation to Stalin, his image is being given a white-wash in Putin's programme of 'positive history'. Books which mention the millions of people he killed are being banned, and new history books are being sent to schools which claim the US and the UK tried to make peace with Hitler until 1941 when the Russians declared war and saved the world. We can laugh, but this is the version of events hundreds of millions of people will believe for the next generation at least.

 

Oh jesus, that's awful - I never knew that! Putin, to me, has always came across quite well though I've spent very little time paying any attention to Russian politics, so that's perhaps why I am a bit out of touch :o

 

So, what is today's 'point of divergence' !!!!???

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Ok, here is another example.

 

What would the British empire and the world be like now, had France and it's allies not intervened and aided the americans during the american war of independance ??

 

I am not saying it would have been an easy win for the british and associated british colonies however, we may have kept control over a major part of our empire. (for how long i am not sure)

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Here's my alternate history.

 

If Hitler didn't exist there would not have been WW2 at the time it happened.

 

If there was no WW2 at the time it happened, my nan would not have been moved around Europe until eventually arriving in England.

 

If my nan did not eventually move to England, my mum would not have met my dad.

 

If my mum and dad never met, I would not be here.

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Ok, here is another example.

 

What would the British empire and the world be like now, had France and it's allies not intervened and aided the americans during the american war of independance ??

 

I am not saying it would have been an easy win for the british and associated british colonies however, we may have kept control over a major part of our empire. (for how long i am not sure)

 

We wouldn't have kept control for very long, frog involvement or not. It is always difficult to rule a much larger country a long way away. The needs of America are much different and more diverse than in the UK. It would be like Britain being governed by Tenerife. It just wouldn't work. I can't think of any similar examples in the modern world of one country governing an equal sized or larger country. The Danes have Greenland, but that's just a very frosty arse end of nowhere.

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Some fascinating speculation above which demonstrates some in depth reading and thought from many.Well done.

 

As a further piece of conjecture, WHAT IF Archduke Ferdinand's car had not made a detour on that day in June 1914,or Gavrillo Princip not been so accurate in his shooting ?

 

World War One would almost certainly have happened anyway. The 19th century international system was teetering on the brink since Bismarck was forced out of power in Germany.

 

It only needed something to kick-start it, and had it not been that shooting then something else would have done. Austria-Hungary was on the verge of collapse, and Germany had to support her sole ally. Only Britain could have prevented the war, but wasn't interested.

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World War One would almost certainly have happened anyway. The 19th century international system was teetering on the brink since Bismarck was forced out of power in Germany.

 

It only needed something to kick-start it, and had it not been that shooting then something else would have done. Austria-Hungary was on the verge of collapse, and Germany had to support her sole ally. Only Britain could have prevented the war, but wasn't interested.

 

There's a theory that the real reason for the start of WW1 was Germany's attempt to seize the oil fiels in what we now call Iraq. At the start of the 20th Century the Royal Navy went from coal powered ship to oil. Germany didn't have any oil producing colonies and so built a train line through europe as a means to transporting middle eastern oil back home. The first land battle in WW1 was in Basra of all places.

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A wonderful example is the faked H Bomb test in the 50s, when we realised that the US and Russia had left the UK standing. We didn't have the know how or money to copy the Russian style bomb. The first two tests failed to go off, and so for the third, patriotic scientists strapped a million tonnes of TNT together and created the worlds biggest ever A bomb, and told the world 'look, there's our hydrogen bomb, can we join the elite club now?' This was kept secret up until the mid-90s when a load of documents got declassified.

 

Hmmmm. The Grapple operation utilised a kind of combination bomb that was a fusion(1)-boosted fission(2) device. This type of combo was considered a type of thermonuclear device at the time. Only later were combo devices re-classified as their own category.

 

Im not saying we weren't behind the US and Russians as we were, and Im not saying that we didn't declare the fact that our version wasn't a full thermonuclear device as we didn't until after the Cold War - but it was a bit more that a straight A Bomb dressed up to pretend to be an H Bomb.

 

(1) Fission = Atomic Bomb, think Hiroshima

(2) Fusion = Hydrogen Bomb, pure Thermonuclear bomb

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Had a weird side-conversation to this thread yesterday regarding another wayward, but nonetheless interesting subject.

 

What if Spain seized Gibraltar and GB declared war on Spain after exhausting all possible diplomatic avenues? Reason this came up was that I work in Spain and I wondered what would actually happen to me and all the other expats out here?

 

I'm hoping we wouldn't all be rounded up and moved to Benidorm to be imprisoned :-(

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