Thedelldays Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 discuss..? personally, I think it is on par..we will need similar points to gain promotion/play offs... we shall see I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Wayman Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 discuss..? Is this yeas league 1 weaker or stronger than last season..? YES! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doddisalegend Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 (edited) Weaker IMO you can't compare the teams that came down with the ones that went up last season. Both Plymouth and Wednesday came down with cash flow problems. Swindon are a shadow of their formerselves, having rather stupidly offloaded arguably the best striking pair in league 1 last season. Brighton are better than last season (but they were turnning it around towards the end of last season under Poyet). MK dons have improved over the team we tonked four times last season having got rid of Ince. Of the teams that came up bompey have had a good season, Rochdale not bad the others indifferent. Hudders aren't much different to last season. Edited 16 March, 2011 by doddisalegend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 16 March, 2011 Author Share Posted 16 March, 2011 if it weaker...then with our remaining games, we could affored to drop around 12-15 points (out of 36) to gain 2nd spot...leeds did so last year on 86 points... would you feel confident throwing away that many points being enough for 2nd..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fanimal Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 given the 3 teams that went up are all doing OK in the CCC and the 3 that replaced them not so good, and the 3 that came up mixed, on balance yes - the irony is of course we beat leeds at home, Norwich 2 or 3 times, Millwall? But with changing squads, another years experience etc you can never do a true like For Like (LFL) in footie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rpb Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 given the 3 teams that went up are all doing OK in the CCC and the 3 that replaced them not so good, and the 3 that came up mixed, on balance yes - the irony is of course we beat leeds at home, Norwich 2 or 3 times, Millwall? But with changing squads, another years experience etc you can never do a true like For Like (LFL) in footie. I've kept a record of this season's results compared to last (with Leeds replaced by Plymouth, etc) and we are slightly behind where we were last year. From the same fixtures last year we had 66 points (-10 = 56), this year it's 61. A win against Wednesday (Norwich) on Saturday would give us 64 compared to 67. A pointless exercise but it keeps me busy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 if it weaker...then with our remaining games, we could affored to drop around 12-15 points (out of 36) to gain 2nd spot...leeds did so last year on 86 points... would you feel confident throwing away that many points being enough for 2nd..? I think last year there were a couple of teams who were very strong and the rest were cr*p. This year there are a number of good teams, just not as good as Norwich were last year. This year more teams are stronger but overall the very best this season would not beat the very best from last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint_clark Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 "Yes" is not an answer to the question Delldays was asking. Anyway, I think the top 6 are stronger but the teams chasing the play-offs are much weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 3 very good teams at this level went up as shown by their performance this season in the Championship. 3 poor teams came down, Peterborough have only really impressed the last 10 games or so, up until then they have been looser at the back than Katie Price. IMO Leed, Norwich and Millwall were better than them and would beat them. Out of the rest only Brighton and Orient are any better, promotion or play off challegers Swindon and Bristol Rovers (they were up there up until the last 10 games or so) have gone into a massive decline and the rest are on a par or slightly worse. Do you honestly think ourselves and Huddersfield are better sides than last season? So overall the league is weaker. I think some of you are kidding yourselves that this league is full of great teams playing fantastic football. The fact that Bournemouth have lost their 3 best players and manager and are still second whilst credit to them emphasises this. The only team that has played to their full potential this season are unsurprisingly running away with the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glasgow_Saint Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 "Yes" is not an answer to the question Delldays was asking. Anyway, I think the top 6 are stronger but the teams chasing the play-offs are much weaker. I agree with this comment from Saint_Clark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 About on a par. A little bit easier to win the division. Much harder to make the play-offs (because there are 4 or 5 good teams, not 2 or 3) A bit easier to avoid relegation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbojones10 Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 Its a lot weaker, look how norwich and leeds are doing millwall are mid table, charlton and swindon where also good last season that's why it will be a disaster if we don't go up this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 Weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 16 March, 2011 Author Share Posted 16 March, 2011 then if it weaker..do you feel confident in dropping 15 points (out of 36) and gaining automatic promotion..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 then if it weaker..do you feel confident in dropping 15 points (out of 36) and gaining automatic promotion..? **** knows. There's no point over analysing. It's just a matter of getting behind the team and seeing what happens. Whatever happens it's not the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david in sweden Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 "Yes" is not an answer to the question Delldays was asking. Anyway, I think the top 6 are stronger but the teams chasing the play-offs are much weaker. right . Thats my impression. too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebel Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 (edited) It's a weaker league than last season - but we have a weaker team than last season as well. Norwich, Leeds and Millwall were very strong teams for League 1 last season - as shown by their league positions in the NPC this season. Swindon and Charlton are considerably weaker than last season. Peterborough are a lot worse than the three teams that went up. Huddersfield are about the same as last season - as our MK Dons. Only Brighton are stronger than last seaon really. At the end of last season we had the best team in League 1 - but we let the team get weaker over the summer - not stronger. That's the biggest difference for us! Edited 16 March, 2011 by Rebel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 16 March, 2011 Author Share Posted 16 March, 2011 Doesn't make sense. We will probably need more than 86 points that Leeds got to go up in 2nd place.. Yet the league is a lot weaker? Also, how did we Let the team get weaker? Would you prefer otsemibor? Would you prefer antonio to oxo? Lloyd James ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny Bognor Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 The fact that Bournemouth have lost their 3 best players and manager and are still second whilst credit to them emphasises this. Didn't you go sat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperMikey Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 Definitely weaker this year. The teams that went up last year were very strong (Norwich currently 2nd in the Champ, Leeds sitting comfortably in the top half and Millwall are doing okay too), and then they had teams like Huddersfield, Charlton, Saints and Swindon very close behind them, any of whom could have easily gone up. I don't really feel that quality is there this year. Brighton and Huddersfield have definitely improved as teams, but I think last season's Leeds team would tonk any of Peterborough, Bournemouth, MK Dons, probably even us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 Doesn't make sense. We will probably need more than 86 points that Leeds got to go up in 2nd place.. Yet the league is a lot weaker? It does make sense. If for some bizarre reason, Barcelona and Man Utd joined League One next season, but the other 22 clubs were all literally pub teams, the division would - overall - be weaker. But it would also be harder to gain automatic promotion. Hope this helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 16 March, 2011 Author Share Posted 16 March, 2011 LoL Whoever gets 6th will probably need more than 80 points... Which again, will be higher than last season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 LoL Whoever gets 6th will probably need more than 80 points... Which again, will be higher than last season Ok...even then the points stands. The top six can - on average - be better. But the overall division weaker. In fact, I'd argue that the points total required for automatic promotion going up shows the strength of the division is probably going down. (in my loopy Barca & Man Utd example, you'd need about 130 points for automatic promotion precisely because the division was so weak....a weak division means the relatively strong teams find it easier to notch up points.....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 16 March, 2011 Author Share Posted 16 March, 2011 Also. 50 points was enough to stay up last season. The team 5th from bottom today is only 14 off that with 33 to play for. So, despite your theory of man u being in league 1. As it stands we could easily have a league that requires more points to get at least 2nd spot.. More points to get into the playoffs and more points to stay in the division.... Odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 I'd say last season was tougher TBH. Other than Posh going on a rampage at the moment, there's really that much quality in the League. Saints are hit and miss, but seem to be matching the top teams for results. Don't forget last season we had Swindon, Millwall, Leeds and Norwich at the top and only the 10 points deduction stopped Saints from being right in the mix. This season we could have Dons or Orient in the playoffs. 'Nuff said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 16 March, 2011 Author Share Posted 16 March, 2011 I'd say last season was tougher TBH. Other than Posh going on a rampage at the moment, there's really that much quality in the League. Saints are hit and miss, but seem to be matching the top teams for results. Don't forget last season we had Swindon, Millwall, Leeds and Norwich at the top and only the 10 points deduction stopped Saints from being right in the mix. This season we could have Dons or Orient in the playoffs. 'Nuff said. Dons orient... Swindon Colchester No difference really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lighthouse Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 Last season's Colchester and Swindon were better than Dons and Orient are now. Impossible to prove that either way mind so... meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 16 March, 2011 Author Share Posted 16 March, 2011 Last season's Colchester and Swindon were better than Dons and Orient are now. Impossible to prove that either way mind so... meh. Were they? Orient are a very good team and have not lost at home since about september and held arsenal too.. They are right on form. I think you are doing them a disservice really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 Also. 50 points was enough to stay up last season. The team 5th from bottom today is only 14 off that with 33 to play for. So, despite your theory of man u being in league 1. As it stands we could easily have a league that requires more points to get at least 2nd spot.. More points to get into the playoffs and more points to stay in the division.... Odd Mathematically then, all you are measuring is the number of draws. Draws diminish the total number of points distributed amongst the 24 teams. For example, it's technically possible to win the league with just 46 points and a high number of goals scored. I'd say this is actually a fair way to measure a tough division...alongside narrow wins (if there are lots of wins by 3, 4 or 5 goals by the same sort of teams...the division isn't that competitive). It can't be simultaneously: 1. harder to win the division 2. harder to get automatic promotion 3. harder to get into the play-offs 4. harder to win the play-offs 5. harder to avoid relegation unless there has been some incredible injection of talent that has passed your team by. My only argument really is that "points needed" (for anything) is not a measurement that's worth using if you're trying to measure how tough the league is. My Barca-Man Utd example is the extreme end of this. But you could also have a harder relegation battle with a lower points threshold to stay up. Assuming the number of draws is about constant, the points totals aren't a measurement of difficulty, they may even be a measure of ease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 16 March, 2011 Author Share Posted 16 March, 2011 So basically. We could need More points to gain auto promotion. More points to get a shout at the playoffs and more points to stay up.... Yet the league will not be as good/strong/hard as last season?? Every spectrum of success in this league could require more than before.. Yet that could be seen as being easier/weaker league Is that what you are saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 16 March, 2011 Share Posted 16 March, 2011 (edited) So basically. We could need More points to gain auto promotion. More points to get a shout at the playoffs and more points to stay up.... Yet the league will not be as good/strong/hard as last season?? Every spectrum of success in this league could require more than before.. Yet that could be seen as being easier/weaker league Is that what you are saying? Yes, that is pretty much exactly what I'm saying. Because the division is weaker this year, you may need 95 points to win it, 90 to come 2nd and 85 to make the play offs and 55 points to stay up (these are just guesses) To flip my Barca-Man U example slightly - if the worst 3 teams in the division were (doomed to relegation) amateur pub teams - they would all end up with about ten points each. Every other team in the division would expect to cane them. So you might then need 55+ points to stay up. Other than the fact that draws diminish the total number of points, it's basically a "zero-sum" game. For example, a 24 team division that finished as follows: 1. 138 points 2. 132 points 3. 126 points 4. 120 points 5. 114 points 6. 108 points .... ... 20. 60 points 21. 18 points 22. 12 points 23. 6 points 24. 0 points would not strike me as obviously being a competitive league. In fact, it would just be basically a series of mismatches. Yet, by your criteria this would be the toughest, hardest league known to man. Edited 16 March, 2011 by SaintBobby typos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 17 March, 2011 Author Share Posted 17 March, 2011 a considerable number of league placings right now have a higher points total compared to that position last season....up and down the league.. up and down the league, more teams are winning...it does not appear top heavy thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandwichsaint Posted 17 March, 2011 Share Posted 17 March, 2011 Bobby is right with the maths thing - the absolute points total tell you nothing about the overall 'strength' of the teams in the league or how they compare year to year - all they tell you is the relative distribution of the results and from that the relative stregth of the different teams compared with the other teams in the same league in the same season. (and we still have a quarter of the season to play so they don't even tell us that much at the moment). My gut feeling is that there was more quality in the league last year (Norwich and Leeds would prob have beaten this year's top 2 whoever they turn out to be), the four play off sides this year aren't really going to be any stronger than Swindon/Charlton/Saints/Hudds were last year. Getting in the top 6 is always going to be hard when you have a competetitve league and this season there are enough good sides outside the top 6 who are capable of getting a result against a top 6 side to keep things interesting; eg at the moment Orient, Charlton, Exeter, Hartlepool, Notts County and others are all capable of picking up a result against a top 6 team. This is the weakness of using 'current form' and posting up bed-wetting league tables showing the last 8 games played - these take no account of who you have played - OR who you are going to play in your next 8 games. Personally I think Saints were stronger last season, the other imponderable comparing over seasons is that the same players play differently - one word Lambert. Last season RL was on fire and that just hasn't happened this year, throw Ant and Dec into the mix and we scored in most games; I think we have already hit more zeroes in the league this season than the whole of last season (is that correct?). What you can't factor in is the confidence of having a player who can score for fun - I'm sure all P'boro's players are thriving on the CMS effect. Rambling conclusion - this league is v tight - it will go to the last game - Saints have as good a chance as anybody - we will have to win tons of games - we can drop some points and still go up - the team that goes up will certainly deserve it ..... let's not give up on the play-offs before they have even happened ... if we can't beat (Bompey) over two legs and then win a cup final against (MK Dons) will we really deserve to go up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintBobby Posted 17 March, 2011 Share Posted 17 March, 2011 a considerable number of league placings right now have a higher points total compared to that position last season....up and down the league.. up and down the league, more teams are winning...it does not appear top heavy thus far I'm still not sure the point you're trying to prove. You think a league in which everyone wins 50% and loses 50% of their matches is more competitive than a league in which everyone draws 100% of their matches? The former would mean "more teams are winning, up and down the league", but so what? It doesn't prove the league is harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noodles34 Posted 17 March, 2011 Share Posted 17 March, 2011 I'm still not sure the point you're trying to prove. You think a league in which everyone wins 50% and loses 50% of their matches is more competitive than a league in which everyone draws 100% of their matches? The former would mean "more teams are winning, up and down the league", but so what? It doesn't prove the league is harder. sorry, you forgot to mention your "Man Utd - Barcelona" theory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noodles34 Posted 17 March, 2011 Share Posted 17 March, 2011 Whether the leaguie is weaker or stronger, one thing is for sure; if there is a godforsaken Tuesday night away game, Saints will **** it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shurlock Posted 17 March, 2011 Share Posted 17 March, 2011 This season is surprisingly strong - I think that mid-table is particularly competitive as most teams have very good home records. Nowhere is this clearer than L1 teams form in the FA Cup - from Leyton Orient beating Swansea and drawing with Arsenal to Notts County beating Sunderland and drawing with Man City (neither of which are in the top six), L1 is a tough old place - just look at how the relegated championship teams have fared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West End Saint Posted 18 March, 2011 Share Posted 18 March, 2011 3 very good teams at this level went up as shown by their performance this season in the Championship. 3 poor teams came down, Peterborough have only really impressed the last 10 games or so, up until then they have been looser at the back than Katie Price. IMO Leed, Norwich and Millwall were better than them and would beat them. Out of the rest only Brighton and Orient are any better, promotion or play off challegers Swindon and Bristol Rovers (they were up there up until the last 10 games or so) have gone into a massive decline and the rest are on a par or slightly worse. Do you honestly think ourselves and Huddersfield are better sides than last season? So overall the league is weaker. I think some of you are kidding yourselves that this league is full of great teams playing fantastic football. The fact that Bournemouth have lost their 3 best players and manager and are still second whilst credit to them emphasises this. The only team that has played to their full potential this season are unsurprisingly running away with the league. I agree with you Brighton are the only team to show consistency Bournemouth have over achieved but fair play to them it shows what can happen if you get promoted & maintain your confidence. Overall I think the league is weaker the teams with the squad to do well havent really performed Sheff Weds and to a lesser extent us we should be better than we were last season but havent shown it yet dont get me wrong I am not a doom & gloom merchant I just dont think we have played really well this season. As long as we get promoted I wont care they we havent been brilliant this season promotion is so important to us I guess the team are feeling the pressure we could really do with taking the confidence from the last 3 games as we won but havent played well & start to play well & win well as it will heap pressure on the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr X Posted 18 March, 2011 Share Posted 18 March, 2011 It's a weaker league than last season - but we have a weaker team than last season as well. Norwich, Leeds and Millwall were very strong teams for League 1 last season - as shown by their league positions in the NPC this season. Swindon and Charlton are considerably weaker than last season. Peterborough are a lot worse than the three teams that went up. Huddersfield are about the same as last season - as our MK Dons. Only Brighton are stronger than last seaon really. At the end of last season we had the best team in League 1 - but we let the team get weaker over the summer - not stronger. That's the biggest difference for us! How so? we have basically the same team plus new stars like chamberlain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doddisalegend Posted 18 March, 2011 Share Posted 18 March, 2011 How so? we have basically the same team plus new stars like chamberlain but were missing a midfield general ............like Lloyd James and a quaility centre back like Wayne Thomas... TBF I think the main bone of contention was Antonio and Papa can't help but think the squad would have been better for keeping at least one of them (Antonio mainly) but it wasn't to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thedelldays Posted 24 April, 2011 Author Share Posted 24 April, 2011 I still think this year is harder.. looks like all over the league..you will need more to go up, more to get in the play offs, more to get mid table and more to stay up.. more wins needed all over the place it seems. are we better than leeds team of last season..? probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VectisSaint Posted 24 April, 2011 Share Posted 24 April, 2011 I still think this year is harder.. looks like all over the league..you will need more to go up, more to get in the play offs, more to get mid table and more to stay up.. more wins needed all over the place it seems. Surely mathematically thats impossible. Last year was much stronger. This year there are 4 outstanding teams, last year there were 7 or 8. More points at the top because it is easier to win against the weaker sides. You cannot compare Norwich and Leeds (and arguably Millwall) with Plymouth, Wednesday and Peterboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisPY Posted 24 April, 2011 Share Posted 24 April, 2011 Great thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deppo Posted 24 April, 2011 Share Posted 24 April, 2011 I've kept a record of this season's results compared to last (with Leeds replaced by Plymouth, etc) and we are slightly behind where we were last year. From the same fixtures last year we had 66 points (-10 = 56), this year it's 61. A win against Wednesday (Norwich) on Saturday would give us 64 compared to 67. A pointless exercise but it keeps me busy... That doesn't make sense. Surely we'd have been in the playoffs in that case?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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