Brexit - Post Match Reaction

[Fan The Flames]

I was in the ale house this afternoon. The bar maid had an Australian accent. I remarked that Boris was proposing a points based immigration system when we left the EU and she would be treated the same as a German chick. She said “fair dinkum to Boris” and the whole bar cheered.

 

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You're **** at this aren't you.

[OldNick]

I was in the ale house this afternoon. The bar maid had an Australian accent. I remarked that Boris was proposing a points based immigration system when we left the EU and she would be treated the same as a German chick. She said “fair dinkum to Boris” and the whole bar cheered.

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

did she have tassels hanging from her nipples as it seems that sort of place

[Tamesaint]

I thought the point of Brexit was to stop the import of poultry from Germany.

[Wes Tender]

The only thing that has caught me out by surprise is the government's active desire to seek out uncertainty so quickly into its term (rather than as negotiating redlines meet reality) with childish, counterproductive grandstanding.

 

One man's certainty is another man's uncertainty. I don't know why you should be so surprised that Boris has nailed down his commitment that we will not be extending the transition period beyond the end of next year. As in any business transaction, one's negotiating position is undermined not only by failing to express the willingness to walk away from a bad deal, but also by not being firm about the deadline of when that will happen. I'm surprised that you cannot recognise that - or maybe I shouldn't be surprised after all.

 

Our position is at last one of great clarity, so the EU know what they must do to avoid the so-called cliff edge which will also have hard implications for them too.

 

As for the childish counterproductive grandstanding, you speak as if there has not been any from the EU side, or indeed from you.

[badgerx16]

 

Our position is at last one of great clarity, so the EU know what they must do to avoid the so-called cliff edge which will also have hard implications for them too.

Whilst the cliff edge might be troublesome for the EU, it will be far worse for the UK. A classic case of "cutting off your nose...".

[Wes Tender]

Whilst the cliff edge might be troublesome for the EU, it will be far worse for the UK. A classic case of "cutting off your nose...".

 

No it won't. The EU do more trade with us than we do with them.

[shurlock]

One man's certainty is another man's uncertainty. I don't know why you should be so surprised that Boris has nailed down his commitment that we will not be extending the transition period beyond the end of next year. As in any business transaction, one's negotiating position is undermined not only by failing to express the willingness to walk away from a bad deal, but also by not being firm about the deadline of when that will happen. I'm surprised that you cannot recognise that - or maybe I shouldn't be surprised after all.

 

Our position is at last one of great clarity, so the EU know what they must do to avoid the so-called cliff edge which will also have hard implications for them too.

 

As for the childish counterproductive grandstanding, you speak as if there has not been any from the EU side, or indeed from you.

 

And one man’s freedom fighter is another man’s jihadist terrorist, right Les. It seems that the markets (and every sane person) agree with me: Johnson’s stunt has served only to increase uncertainty.

 

Re your response to Badger, here’s another little metaphor to make understanding simpler for you. Imagine an elephant (EU) and a bulldog (UK) getting into a fight. In that fight, the elephant (EU) loses three pints of blood, the bulldog (UK) loses two pints of blood. Note that the elephant loses more blood than the bulldog. Who is worse afterwards: the elephant or the bulldog pal?

 

In concrete terms, the EU exports more to the UK but it’s economy is also significantly bigger, so could absorb any disruption to trade much more easily. Specifically the UK exports to the EU are around 13% of UK GDP where as EU exports to the UK are only 3-4% of its economy. So yes Badger is entirely correct.

Edited 20 December, 2019 by shurlock

[Whitey Grandad]

No it won't. The EU do more trade with us than we do with them.

 

Have you researched how much of that imported trade comes through the EU and not from it?

 

Start with 'The Rotterdam Effect' and move on from there.

[Wes Tender]

And one man’s freedom fighter is another man’s jihadist terrorist, right Les. It seems that the markets (and every sane person) agree with me: Johnson’s stunt has served only to increase uncertainty.

 

Re your response to Badger, here’s another little metaphor to make understanding simpler for you. Imagine an elephant (EU) and a bulldog (UK) getting into a fight. In that fight, the elephant (EU) loses three pints of blood, the bulldog (UK) loses two pints of blood. Note that the elephant loses more blood than the bulldog. Who is worse afterwards: the elephant or the bulldog pal?

 

In concrete terms, the EU exports more to the UK but it’s economy is also significantly bigger, so could absorb any disruption to trade much more easily. Specifically the UK exports to the EU are around 13% of UK GDP where as EU exports to the UK are only 3-4% of its economy. So yes Badger is entirely correct.

 

Don't be silly, Gavyn. All of the remoaner brigade of course think that Boris' position has increased uncertainty. It is their default position to try and perpetuate project fear, especially as a knee-jerk reaction to the drubbing their position took a week ago. Typical of them and you to believe that certainty is best served by keeping options for an extension open, so that there is absolutely no pressure at all to get Brexit done. I said that your inability to understand this concept would be no surprise to me.

 

And what a bizarre and childishly simplistic analogy, as if our trading partnership with the EU was remotely comparable to the EU being one singular type of collective entity and we another one. The EU wouldn't be affected equally and proportionately member state by member state. Some will be affected considerably more than others like Germany industrially and France agriculturally, whereas other states who hardly do any trade with us will not be affected much at all. So this talk of only 3-4% of the EU's economy is more pertinently viewed in terms of the effect on those country's economies which do the highest level of trade with us with most to lose. And we of course will be able to offset some of that with trade around the world with countries supplying products at a more competitive price.

 

I trust that you will agree that the continuation of tariff free trade between us and the EU is in the mutual interests of both parties. The EU now know that unless they have arranged at least a rudimentary trading agreement with us by that deadline, we are out on WTO terms. It should concentrate their minds wonderfully. For the first time in three and a half years, the ball is firmly in their court.

[shurlock]

Don't be silly, Gavyn. All of the remoaner brigade of course think that Boris' position has increased uncertainty. It is their default position to try and perpetuate project fear, especially as a knee-jerk reaction to the drubbing their position took a week ago. Typical of them and you to believe that certainty is best served by keeping options for an extension open, so that there is absolutely no pressure at all to get Brexit done. I said that your inability to understand this concept would be no surprise to me.

 

And what a bizarre and childishly simplistic analogy, as if our trading partnership with the EU was remotely comparable to the EU being one singular type of collective entity and we another one. The EU wouldn't be affected equally and proportionately member state by member state. Some will be affected considerably more than others like Germany industrially and France agriculturally, whereas other states who hardly do any trade with us will not be affected much at all. So this talk of only 3-4% of the EU's economy is more pertinently viewed in terms of the effect on those country's economies which do the highest level of trade with us with most to lose. And we of course will be able to offset some of that with trade around the world with countries supplying products at a more competitive price.

 

I trust that you will agree that the continuation of tariff free trade between us and the EU is in the mutual interests of both parties. The EU now know that unless they have arranged at least a rudimentary trading agreement with us by that deadline, we are out on WTO terms. It should concentrate their minds wonderfully. For the first time in three and a half years, the ball is firmly in their court.

 

Still having your cake and eat - at times claiming the EU is a homogeneous supranational bloc riding roughshod over national sovereignty; at others no more than loose collection of nation states pursuing and securing their own individual interests. Make your mind up

 

Either way lets be clear: France and Germany are far less dependent on exports (as a % of GDP) to the UK than vice-versa. As for tariff free trade - you really don’t know how modern trade or current trade between the UK and EU works and that tariffs (that are already low with third countries) are far less important than nontariff barriers and regulatory frictions? It’s not the same as your garden gnome business on eBay pal. That said, the EU will happily do a deal limited to the elimination of tariffs (provided the UK agrees to access to fishing water and level playing field requirements) since any deal works to the EU's comparative advantage (in goods) and does absolutely nothing for the UK's comparative advantage (in services or even just-in-time production).

Edited 20 December, 2019 by shurlock

[Wes Tender]

Still having your cake and eat - at times claiming the EU is a homogeneous supranational bloc riding roughshod over national sovereignty; at others no more than loose collection of nation states pursuing and securing their own individual interests. Make your mind up

 

Either way lets be clear: France and Germany are far less dependent on exports (as a % of GDP) to the UK than vice-versa. As for tariff free trade - you really don’t know how modern trade or current trade between the UK and EU works and that tariffs (that are already low with third countries) are far less important than nontariff barriers and regulatory frictions? It’s not the same as your garden gnome business on eBay pal. That said, the EU will happily do a deal (provided the UK agrees to access to fishing water and level playing field requirements) since any deal limited to tariffs works to the EU's comparative advantage (in goods) and does absolutely nothing for the UK's comparative advantage (in services).

 

I'm not really interested in indulging in any speculation about the future trade relations between us and the EU this far ahead. Clearly since the events of a week ago, remain is dead in the water and so naturally you're feeling a bit sore about it. If you wish to fantasise about how it will all pan out, go ahead and fill your boots. So far, I've been on the right side of the referendum, the EU elections and now the General Election. Life just gets better and better. By all means come back on the matter of our future trading arrangements nearer to the end of July, when the EU will begin to get more nervous about the cliff edge they will face then, as they perceive that to be some sort of deadline for us to extend the WA, even though they have already been told it will not happen.

[shurlock]

I'm not really interested in indulging in any speculation about the future trade relations between us and the EU this far ahead. Clearly since the events of a week ago, remain is dead in the water and so naturally you're feeling a bit sore about it. If you wish to fantasise about how it will all pan out, go ahead and fill your boots. So far, I've been on the right side of the referendum, the EU elections and now the General Election. Life just gets better and better. By all means come back on the matter of our future trading arrangements nearer to the end of July, when the EU will begin to get more nervous about the cliff edge they will face then, as they perceive that to be some sort of deadline for us to extend the WA, even though they have already been told it will not happen.

 

I wasn't speculating about the UK's relative dependence on exports to the EU or individual member states such as Germany and France. Its in the data pal.

[Wes Tender]

I wasn't speculating about the UK's relative dependence on exports to the EU or individual member states such as Germany and France.

 

Read what I said.

 

I'm not really interested in indulging in any speculation about the future trade relations between us and the EU this far ahead.

 

Can you understand the difference Gavyn?

[badgerx16]

No it won't. The EU do more trade with us than we do with them.

 

As a proportion of their total trade ? They are approx 50% of both our imports and exports, we are less than 10% of EU exports.

[badgerx16]

I'm not really interested in indulging in any speculation about the future trade relations between us and the EU this far ahead.

I thought you were quite content with a WTO based no-deal exit.

[CB Fry]

 

And what a bizarre and childishly simplistic analogy, as if our trading partnership with the EU was remotely comparable to the EU being one singular type of collective entity and we another one.

 

Childish and simplistic you say?

[Wes Tender]

As a proportion of their total trade ? They are approx 50% of both our imports and exports, we are less than 10% of EU exports.

 

Read it again. Where did I say anything about proportions of total trade?

[Wes Tender]

I thought you were quite content with a WTO based no-deal exit.

 

Again, read what I said please. Which part of it don't you understand?

[badgerx16]

Read it again. Where did I say anything about proportions of total trade?

You didn't, but you are semantically evading the issue by ignoring the fact that the EU are far more important to the UK as a trading partner than the UK is to the EU.

[badgerx16]

Again, read what I said please. Which part of it don't you understand?

I understand the words, and I accept that you believe them to represent a potential future. However, I do not think that the EU will imperil or compromise their project going forward, even if it means a short term 'hit' through standing firm against UK brinksmanship, or the German Chancellor having plug her ears to block the noise of their car manufacturers beating on her door.

[Doctoroncall]

I note that we seem to be lacking in graphs showing that the Pound has fallen against both the Euro and the Dollar this afternoon. Presumably this is not due to Boris 'playing a blinder'.

 

The hedge funds have been reaping the rewards both times so doesn’t matter!

[rallyboy]

Who will be the first cabinet minister to take up a consultancy position with one of the hedge funds that has benefited from the lobbying this year?

Though they'll probably all be too busy running food banks for their supporters in Redcar or Darlington.

[Wes Tender]

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/five-times-more-demand-for-uk-exports-from-outside-the-eu

 

More good news

[shurlock]

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/five-times-more-demand-for-uk-exports-from-outside-the-eu

 

More good news

 

Well done for confirming your statistical illiteracy Les.

Edited 21 December, 2019 by shurlock

[Wes Tender]

Well done for confirming your statistical illiteracy Les.

 

Of course, I didn't expect you to consider it good news, Gavyn. No doubt you're in a sulk.

[shurlock]

Of course, I didn't expect you to consider it good news, Gavyn. No doubt you're in a sulk.

 

Whether its good news or not is beside the point. The figure is economically and statistically misleading.

 

A word of advice: don't parrot things you don't understand, especially a Liz Truss press release

[Fan The Flames]

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/five-times-more-demand-for-uk-exports-from-outside-the-eu

 

More good news

 

And achieved whilst being a member of the EU, you know the institution that is meant to be holding us back.

[Batman]

[badgerx16]

 

Your Jedi mind tricks won't work on me.

[Wes Tender]

Whether its good news or not is beside the point. The figure is economically and statistically misleading.

 

A word of advice: don't parrot things you don't understand, especially a Liz Truss press release

 

I've decided to indulge you. Come on then, chapter and verse on why the release is misleading. Are the figures wrong? What are the right ones? If you were in Truss' shoes, what would your press release say? I realise that figures provided by the Treasury under Gideon were not to be trusted, although you were happy to cite them as part of project fear, but they were just forecasts, i.e. guesses. If these figures from the Treasury aren't based on accurate export trade information, give us the correct ones.

[Wes Tender]

And achieved whilst being a member of the EU, you know the institution that is meant to be holding us back.

 

Yes, just think how much faster and more strongly our trade with the rest of the World will grow once we're actually free of their shackles. That's what worries them to death, a major competitor right on their doorstep.

[aintforever]

Yes, just think how much faster and more strongly our trade with the rest of the World will grow once we're actually free of their shackles. That's what worries them to death, a major competitor right on their doorstep.

 

Wasn’t some of that growth due to the trade deals the EU have done though, like with Japan?

[shurlock]

I've decided to indulge you. Come on then, chapter and verse on why the release is misleading. Are the figures wrong? What are the right ones? If you were in Truss' shoes, what would your press release say? I realise that figures provided by the Treasury under Gideon were not to be trusted, although you were happy to cite them as part of project fear, but they were just forecasts, i.e. guesses. If these figures from the Treasury aren't based on accurate export trade information, give us the correct ones.

 

To cut to the chase, trade and balance of payment data are highly distorted by gold movements. London is the world's major financial centre for the gold trade (80% of trade in bullion but also gold exchange traded funds). The UK doesn’t produce, refine or own the underlying gold and therefore it adds virtually nothing to the UK economy yet it shows up in its entirety in the UK’s export figures.

 

Since the majority of gold is shipped to countries such as China, Switzerland and India, it inflates the total amount of exports reported as going to non-EU countries. That trade can be sufficiently large that it often ranks as the UK's top export above aerospace, cars, pharmaceuticals, business services etc. Note the period under question -the twelve months to September 2019- saw gold demand/prices go through the roof due to recession fears, rising protectionism and dovish central banks.

 

Statisticians and economists who work with the data fully understand these limitations - that's why they are heavily caveated. The ONS has toiled for a number of years without much success to come up with ways to publish additional trade statistics stripping out non-monetary gold by geography. You'll also find articles in the informed business press discussing the problem.

 

So there’s your answer pal. Adjust for gold and your point is fool’s gold (never mind that even if you include gold but look at the whole post-referendum period, the share of UK exports going to the EU has still increased relative to non-EU countries -that is, UK exports to the EU have grown more rapidly).

 

As I tell your little chum, John, you need to look behind the figures (experts huh) -not cluelessly parrot them and make yourself look silly. As for Liz Truss, I bet black holes are brighter than her.

Edited 22 December, 2019 by shurlock

[Whitey Grandad]

Wasn’t some of that growth due to the trade deals the EU have done though, like with Japan?

 

What ‘shackles’ might these be? I have never come across any.

 

The only ‘shackles’ that I can see in the future are the ones that will occur because we have left the Single Market.

[aintforever]

What ‘shackles’ might these be? I have never come across any.

 

The only ‘shackles’ that I can see in the future are the ones that will occur because we have left the Single Market.

 

I agree, my point was that I think a fair amount of non EU trade is done as part of trade deals we have got because we are part of the EU, not the other way round. I’m no expert and quite frankly find the subject a bit boring but from what I have read it seams that any gains we might get through trade deals around the world are unlikely to offset the loses made trough losing EU trade, the effects of the disruption and not being part of a powerful trading block.

 

It’s irrelevant now anyway because it’s happening, we just have to hope these Tories know what they are doing. At least if it is a disaster the Tories will be finished - that’s the silver lining.

[Whitey Grandad]

I agree, my point was that I think a fair amount of non EU trade is done as part of trade deals we have got because we are part of the EU, not the other way round. I’m no expert and quite frankly find the subject a bit boring but from what I have read it seams that any gains we might get through trade deals around the world are unlikely to offset the loses made trough losing EU trade, the effects of the disruption and not being part of a powerful trading block.

 

It’s irrelevant now anyway because it’s happening, we just have to hope these Tories know what they are doing. At least if it is a disaster the Tories will be finished - that’s the silver lining.

The Single Market is by far our most important trading partner and the rest of the world cannot come close to replacing what we lose of it.

 

As far as manufacturing is concerned, and that includes me, anything I produce at the moment is ‘Made in the EU’ but that will soon change to ‘Made in the UK’. No more CE markings for many products with consequential loss of sales, both worldwide as well as to the EU.

 

And no, the Tories haven’t got a clue what they’re doing. They only ever think of themselves.

[Weston Super Saint]

I’m no expert and quite frankly find the subject a bit boring but from what I have read it seams that any gains we might get through trade deals around the world are unlikely to offset the loses made trough losing EU trade,

 

 

I'm no expert either, but do you seriously think we will be losing such significant amounts of trade with the EU - are they all going to suddenly stop needing what we are currently supplying and vice versa?

[Whitey Grandad]

I'm no expert either, but do you seriously think we will be losing such significant amounts of trade with the EU - are they all going to suddenly stop needing what we are currently supplying and vice versa?

 

Yep, you got it.

 

If you’re an EU purchaser you have the whole of the EU as a potential supplier in competition with little ol’ UK. If you are considering buying a complex system that will need regular service visits are you really going to buy it from a country that probably won’t be able to send staff to service it? There is precious little that we supply that cannot be sourced elsewhere.

 

We shall still be able to buy from the EU but it will cost us.

[aintforever]

I'm no expert either, but do you seriously think we will be losing such significant amounts of trade with the EU - are they all going to suddenly stop needing what we are currently supplying and vice versa?

 

No, but we will soon be direct competition with them, so by default they will do all they can to have what is currently supplied by us, supplied by another EU state.

[badgerx16]

No, but we will soon be direct competition with them, so by default they will do all they can to have what is currently supplied by us, supplied by another EU state.

Particularly if we start to diverge from EU standards and protocols.

[OldNick]

Sadly the pound has dropped under $1.30

[Guided Missile]

The good news keeps on coming for everyone...

Economic growth is set to take off from almost nothing in the final few months of this year to a solid rate at the end of 2020 and potentially a faster pace in the years ahead once the final Brexit deal is complete

...apart from those that invested with our own sage and macroeconomic expert shurlock aka Gavyn Davies whose fund was recently rated the 7th worse performing fund of 2019:

Worst Performing Funds of 2019

NB : Fulcrum are a boutique fund management house established by Gavyn Davies and Andrew Stevens in 2004. TM Fulcrum Diversified Core Absolute Return is their flagship absolute return vehicle.

#tiredofexperts

[badgerx16]

The good news keeps on coming for everyone...

 

Some more selective quoting from the same article;

"However, this could leave the annual growth rate at barely more than 1pc, down from 1.2pc to 1.3pc in 2019."

 

"Whatever the Brexit drama delivers in 2020, it seems that uncertainty will continue to hold back GDP growth and keep a lid on the pound, interest rates and gilt yields"

 

"This combination of another year of uncertainty ahead of the agreement on the future relationship with the EU, plus a weak global economy threatens to keep a lid on business investment despite the progress made to pass the initial deal by the end of January."

 

"Overall we think the fact that the transition period is likely to be only a year is going to leave quite a lot of uncertainty for businesses. The possibility of a cliff edge at the end of the year is quite high, which is not great news. It is not something we’re likely to see resolved early – it is likely to drag until much later."

[Weston Super Saint]

 

...apart from those that invested with our own sage and macroeconomic expert shurlock aka Gavyn Davies whose fund was recently rated the 7th worse performing fund of 2019:

 

#tiredofexperts

 

Lol!

 

I'm sure he'll have a witty rebuttal explaining how he already made his money earlier in the year shorting the pound or something equally as made up.... pal....

[Tamesaint]

Some more selective quoting from the same article;

"However, this could leave the annual growth rate at barely more than 1pc, down from 1.2pc to 1.3pc in 2019."

 

"Whatever the Brexit drama delivers in 2020, it seems that uncertainty will continue to hold back GDP growth and keep a lid on the pound, interest rates and gilt yields"

 

"This combination of another year of uncertainty ahead of the agreement on the future relationship with the EU, plus a weak global economy threatens to keep a lid on business investment despite the progress made to pass the initial deal by the end of January."

 

"Overall we think the fact that the transition period is likely to be only a year is going to leave quite a lot of uncertainty for businesses. The possibility of a cliff edge at the end of the year is quite high, which is not great news. It is not something we’re likely to see resolved early – it is likely to drag until much later."

 

With ignorance like that you can see why GM's company is so s hite.

Edited 28 December, 2019 by Tamesaint

[Wes Tender]

"Overall we think the fact that the transition period is likely to be only a year is going to leave quite a lot of uncertainty for businesses. The possibility of a cliff edge at the end of the year is quite high, which is not great news. It is not something we’re likely to see resolved early – it is likely to drag until much later."

 

Obviously in some people's minds, business confidence is better served by having an open ended arrangement whereby there is no firm commitment to a deadline date for agreeing a trade deal with the EU, with the resultant likelihood that the process will go on and on indefinitely. Let's have a transition period of two, even better three years, put off the cliff edge until the end of that period instead and watch business confidence and inward investment soar in the interim.

[Batman]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/12/28/tony-blair-sought-eu-funding-trying-stop-brexit/

[shurlock]

I thought Brexit was done?

 

https://www.ft.com/content/a0190f9a-3206-11ea-a329-0bcf87a328f2

[Wes Tender]

I thought Brexit was done?

 

https://www.ft.com/content/a0190f9a-3206-11ea-a329-0bcf87a328f2

 

What is the point in posting a link to an organisation that requires a subscription before the contents can be accessed? Hands up all those who have access to the FT article on here.

[badgerx16]

What is the point in posting a link to an organisation that requires a subscription before the contents can be accessed? Hands up all those who have access to the FT article on here.

You can generally find syndicated stories elsewhere;

https://www.newscabal.co.uk/brussels-warns-uk-over-future-trade-relationship-ambitions/

Edited 8 January, 2020 by badgerx16