Just how realistic are the play-offs?

[St_Tel49]

In my opinion almost zero. This is not a reaction to yesterdays result which I think makes very little difference to my analysis. It is more of an objective analysis of the points situation. We are currently 12 points behind Swindon who have 2 games in hand, 12 behind Huddersfield who have 1 game in hand. The issue is not so much how many games we win as that we have to win at least 4 MORE games than these two and I cannot see it happening. Neither can I see us winning 4 or 5 more games than the others in the top 6. Realistically the JPT is our best chance of a trophy this year. The truth is that the 10 pt deduction accompanied by our very poor start to the season has left us too far adrift to realistically make the playoffs - we will be depending on one or more of the leading teams imploding between now and the end of the year. It ain't going to happen. Pardew's best policy is to concentrate on developing a winning mentality so we can do a Leeds next year. The problem will be retaining our best players come the summer.

[Glasgow_Saint]

Start of the season very realistic

 

Spending millions on players made the chances even more realistic

 

Poor start made it less plausable

 

Good run then made it very possible again

 

WE are now in another poor spell so really dependant on how quickly we recover.

 

One stat which will please some: If we fail to get promotion we will be the 1st L1 side to spend over 3 million in a year and fail to get promotion in same season.

[Colinjb]

It would be bloody hard to do now, but not impossible.

[RedAndWhite91]

I feel the same as Colin, it's do-able, just unlikely.

[St_Tel49]

It would be bloody hard to do now, but not impossible.

 

I guess that the point I am trying to make is that we have become dependent on the others failing. It could happen, but I resigned to the fact that, on the balance of probabilities, it won't..

[Arizona]

The problem is that people take the present to be the norm all the time.

 

Billionaire takes over - We're going to spend big and win the League

Poor start to the season - We are stuck in another relegation fight

Great run of early winter form - The playoffs look highly likely

We sign more player in January - Anyone who thinks we wont make a playoff spot is a negative budgie.

We draw in a tough away match to playoff opposition - Playoff chances gone, even the odd murmur of relegation.

 

We just have to accept that our form will fluctuate. The playoffs are unlikely and always have been. I said that before we went to Leeds, I'm saying it now and I will still be saying it if we win the next 5 games. They are a target, but shouldn't be the yardstick for success this season.

[ken]

I don't think now or at any time this season that we would make the play offs, that's not a complaint but just realistic, from 10 points down, club in turmoil, late appointment of manager I thought we would do well to stay up, looks like we might do a bit better than that so a succesful season so far in my book!! Lets not forget where we've just come from and how low we all were.

[St_Tel49]

I don't think now or at any time this season that we would make the play offs, that's not a complaint but just realistic, from 10 points down, club in turmoil, late appointment of manager I thought we would do well to stay up, looks like we might do a bit better than that so a succesful season so far in my book!! Lets not forget where we've just come from and how low we all were.

 

Agreed.

[musesaint]

Still possible but not easy

 

We have a decent run in ..when we should pick up more points and have a chance of a late "surge" up the table

[CanadaSaint]

Look at it this way.

 

Since the game against Hartlepool on November 24th we've earned an average of 2.00 points per game. And that eight-game stretch includes the losses at Leeds and Colchester and the draw at Millwall.

 

If we average that same 2.00 PPG from now to the end of the season we'll end up with 71 points. That may well get us into sixth place, given the parity in the top half of the division; it would have done in two of the past five years, and if we can do that I think GD should work in our favour as well.

 

It's a tall order but achievable IF the new guys gel quite quickly.

[ken]

I agree it's still possible but in my book unlikely so lets not be too harsh on the management

[NickG]

still very possible, therefore realistic to consider it.

 

other teams more likely as so far ahead, therefore unrealistic to expect it.

 

about 50/50 for me, but chances can easily look very different after a few good or bad games.

 

If we go mad, signing likes of Stocks, Danns and a good forward would start being quite optimistic.

[Block 5]

[John B]

If we go mad, signing likes of Stocks, Danns and a good forward would start being quite optimistic.

 

Then £3m will become £6m and if we get promoted I may well help Pat from Poole eat his garage if he has not finished by then

Edited 17 January, 2010 by John B

[St_Tel49]

still very possible, therefore realistic to consider it.

 

other teams more likely as so far ahead, therefore unrealistic to expect it.

 

about 50/50 for me, but chances can easily look very different after a few good or bad games.

 

If we go mad, signing likes of Stocks, Danns and a good forward would start being quite optimistic.

I think 50/50 is optimistic. 30-70 or 20-80 would be more my assessment. 12 points is a huge gap at this stage. Even 10 points, had we won yesterday.

[shurlock]

Start of the season very realistic

 

Spending millions on players made the chances even more realistic

 

Poor start made it less plausable

 

Good run then made it very possible again

 

WE are now in another poor spell so really dependant on how quickly we recover.

 

One stat which will please some: If we fail to get promotion we will be the 1st L1 side to spend over 3 million in a year and fail to get promotion in same season.

 

Got your history totally back to front. We had zero chance at the start of the season (even taking into the account the minus 10). We had he dregs of a relegated squad (did you go to Huddersfield?) which was not improved over the summer and the barebones of a management and scouting structure (as folklore goes we had no reports on Swindon)- for reasons everybody knows.

 

We strengthened only after the season had begun and it took time for players to gel. Others -Jaidi, Connolly, Waigo and Antonio- joined even later on. Early results reflected this belated rebuilding process, even though we were difficult to beat (too many draws and too few goals).

 

As things clicked, results picked up - yes playoff form but hardly plausible to talk about playoffs in October/November. Some good times even if some got ahead of themselves. I think we went off the boil at the start of November - around the time of the Brighton match. Results flattered after then and form is now catching up with us.

 

Again we've spent in this transfer window (not the start of the season as you imply). Again it will take to time bed everyone in -so its somewhat disingenious and simplistic to talk about spunking £3m. Maybe Im giving L1 too much respect (but possibly not the higher echelons) but £3m is small change considering what is needed to repair the damage of repeated firesales of the past few seasons.

Edited 17 January, 2010 by shurlock

[NickG]

Then £3m will become £6m

 

:confused::confused:

[doddisalegend]

Start of the season very realistic

 

really with -10 and a poor squad I figured we'd struggle

 

Spending millions on players made the chances even more realistic

 

really? Man City aren't exactly winning the EPL are they? money helps but doesn't make anything certain

 

Poor start made it less plausable

 

made it almost impossiable I'd say

 

Good run then made it very possible again

 

No it didn't. It just raised the fans expectations into thinking it was possiable

 

WE are now in another poor spell so really dependant on how quickly we recover

 

Even if we win almost all our matches I still can't see it other teams above us just don't seem to be slipping up.

[John B]

See Glasgow Saints Post

[John B]

Start of the season very realistic

 

really with -10 and a poor squad I figured we'd struggle

 

Spending millions on players made the chances even more realistic

 

really? Man City aren't exactly winning the EPL are they? money helps but doesn't make anything certain

 

Poor start made it less plausable

 

made it almost impossiable I'd say

 

Good run then made it very possible again

 

No it didn't. It just raised the fans expectations into thinking it was possiable

 

WE are now in another poor spell so really dependant on how quickly we recover

 

Even if we win almost all our matches I still can't see it other teams above us just don't seem to be slipping up.

 

 

Must agree with your analysis

[NickG]

Start of the season very realistic

 

Spending millions on players made the chances even more realistic

 

Poor start made it less plausable

 

Good run then made it very possible again

 

WE are now in another poor spell so really dependant on how quickly we recover.

 

One stat which will please some: If we fail to get promotion we will be the 1st L1 side to spend over 3 million in a year and fail to get promotion in same season.

 

who did the £3m transfer fees go on?

[John B]

who did the £3m transfer fees go on?

 

Lambert Fonte Hammond Seabourne

[NickG]

Lambert Fonte Hammond Seabourne

 

ok, do you remember the fees?

[John B]

ok, do you remember the fees?

 

No but say £1m Lambert £1.2 Fonte £0.25m Seabourne £0.5m Hammond

[NickG]

found

Lambert £800,000

Fonte £800,000

Hammond couldn't find but 12 months earlier Colchester bought him for £250,000

[NickG]

No but say £1m Lambert £1.2 Fonte £0.25m Seabourne £0.5m Hammond

 

saints seem to have thing for "undisclosed fee" lately.:confused:

[shurlock]

Lambert Fonte Hammond Seabourne

 

Fonte and Seaborne have just joined - moronic to say that Pards has had a multimillion pound squad at his disposal week-in week-out.

[Saint Fan CaM]

The problem is that people take the present to be the norm all the time.

 

Billionaire takes over - We're going to spend big and win the League

Poor start to the season - We are stuck in another relegation fight

Great run of early winter form - The playoffs look highly likely

We sign more player in January - Anyone who thinks we wont make a playoff spot is a negative budgie.

We draw in a tough away match to playoff opposition - Playoff chances gone, even the odd murmur of relegation.

 

We just have to accept that our form will fluctuate. The playoffs are unlikely and always have been. I said that before we went to Leeds, I'm saying it now and I will still be saying it if we win the next 5 games. They are a target, but shouldn't be the yardstick for success this season.

 

 

Don't need to read any more threads - this is the way I feel and the right way to feel IMO.

[John B]

saints seem to have thing for "undisclosed fee" lately.:confused:

 

Yes you are right - Do think £3m realistic

[NickG]

Yes you are right - Do think £3m realistic

 

probably not far off, maybe nearer £2m at the moment but with those fees going up if we get promoted.

[derry]

Look at it this way.

 

Since the game against Hartlepool on November 24th we've earned an average of 2.00 points per game. And that eight-game stretch includes the losses at Leeds and Colchester and the draw at Millwall.

 

If we average that same 2.00 PPG from now to the end of the season we'll end up with 71 points. That may well get us into sixth place, given the parity in the top half of the division; it would have done in two of the past five years, and if we can do that I think GD should work in our favour as well.

 

It's a tall order but achievable IF the new guys gel quite quickly.

 

Bill, if you watched this team regularly despite a decent return you would be pulling your hair out.

 

We are a long way from being a decent never mind a good footballing side. I do think that under this manager pragmatism and caution are the basis, not irresistable fast attacking football, with pace a must.

 

We might fluke it into the playoffs but even this side needs rebuilding to be a force. From now on no player that lacks pace should be signed. We are slow all across the midfield and up front, Waigo is very quick and Antonio is reasonably quick but plays head down and seems purely an impact sub unless we can turn him into a centre forward.

 

Lambert and Lallana lack pace but have some very good qualities but all the others need replacing. The central midfield flatters to deceive with two players who between them hardly equal one. None of our midfielders break through the strikers and the two players with pace sit on the bench.

 

There is so much wrong that needs putting right.

[John B]

Fonte and Seaborne have just joined - moronic to say that Pards has had a multimillion pound squad at his disposal week-in week-out.

 

Dont think you understand the theme of the recent postst

 

 

With Thomas Schenderlin Saga Lambert and Hammond available I make that over £3m but that was not being discussed only how much had been spent this season

[saint lard]

Play offs should remain a target until such times as it is mathmatically impossible.

When/if that happens, consistancy and finishing as high up as possible should be the target.

The play offs were always going to be a long shot,but you should always aim high.

We have come such along way both on and off the field of play in such a short time, it is remarkable to think where we were just a few short months ago.

A JPT final and the solid foundations layed for next seasons promotion push will make me very happy indeed.

And i am excited about the future,it's been a while since i felt that way i can assure you.

 

Zero chances of the play offs this season methinks,but i will be happy to be proven wrong.

 

All imo.

Edited 17 January, 2010 by saint lard

[Rasiak-9-]

I agree with the OP

 

Basically the rest of this season should just be used as pre-season essentially for building a regular first 11 for next season complete with a winning mentality.

 

Davis

 

Otsemeboor - Seabourne - Fonte - Harding

 

Antonio - Schneidlerin - *new attacking mid* - Lallana

 

Lambert - *new pacy striker*

 

should really win the league next season with a winning mentality and having already gelled together.

[aintforever]

Possible but unlikely.

[John B]

Play offs should remain a target until such times as it is mathmatically impossible.

When/if that happens, consistancy and finishing as high up as possible should be the target.

The play offs were always going to be a long shot,but you should always aim high.

We have come such along way both on and off the field of play in such a short time it is remarkable to think where we were just a few short months ago.

A JPT final and the solid foundations layed for next seasons promotion push will make me very happy indeed.

And i am excited about the future,it's been a while since i felt that way i can assure you.

 

Zero chances of the play offs this season methinks,but i will be happy to be proven wrong.

 

All imo.

 

And IMO too

[NickG]

personally could live with another season in league 1 if its building for the future, concerns are though;

 

1) keeping hold of players like Schneiderlin, Lallana, Lambert if we are still in league 1

 

2) not being able to stuff skates in CCC next season!

[NickG]

only 7-1 to get promoted, so odds to reach play offs would be less, so therefore still have a chance!

 

When they start quoting 50-1 it will be looking unlikely!

[alpine_saint]

Extremely unlikely.

[saint lard]

personally could live with another season in league 1 if its building for the future, concerns are though;

 

1) keeping hold of players like Schneiderlin, Lallana, Lambert if we are still in league 1

 

2) not being able to stuff skates in CCC next season!

 

I personally believe they will stay,i don't think they were under any illusions of the scale of the task here and if we had gained promotion this season that would've been an almighty bonus for them.

 

If we are still in league 1 come the end of next season then they will be off.

Infact come next January if it looks an unlikely scenario that we will be in the play offs they will go then.

[CanadaSaint]

Bill, if you watched this team regularly despite a decent return you would be pulling your hair out.

 

We are a long way from being a decent never mind a good footballing side. I do think that under this manager pragmatism and caution are the basis, not irresistable fast attacking football, with pace a must.

 

We might fluke it into the playoffs but even this side needs rebuilding to be a force. From now on no player that lacks pace should be signed. We are slow all across the midfield and up front, Waigo is very quick and Antonio is reasonably quick but plays head down and seems purely an impact sub unless we can turn him into a centre forward.

 

Lambert and Lallana lack pace but have some very good qualities but all the others need replacing. The central midfield flatters to deceive with two players who between them hardly equal one. None of our midfielders break through the strikers and the two players with pace sit on the bench.

 

There is so much wrong that needs putting right.

 

Dave, I've seen you saying that before and that really worries me because I know how well you read these things, but the fact that we're still "in with a shout" probably says a lot about this division, eh?

 

Even allowing for us not playing the way most of us would like to see, and even allowing for the fact that we still have midfield issues to resolve, all we may need to do is hit the same PPG average that we've hit over the past eight games. Yes, that would be fluking it into the playoffs but I'd certainly take that. What happens if we get there is another story altogether.

 

We have made progress. From what I've seen and read, we have much more depth, we have more playing options, we are better placed to utilize width, the latest batch of signings should solidify us at the back, and Murty (who seems to be one of our keys) can't be far away from coming back. These changes should enable us to move things up a level or two.

 

I don't think there's another team in the division with that kind of "improvement package" at their disposal.

 

While I certainly bow to your opinion - because I know you and because you see the games - the optimist in me feels that we're not out of this yet.

[derry]

I personally believe they will stay,i don't think they were under any illusions of the scale of the task here and if we had gained promotion this season that would've been an almighty bonus for them.

 

If we are still in league 1 come the end of next season then they will be off.

Infact come next January if it looks an unlikely scenario that we will be in the play offs they will go then.

 

If I read Cortese correctly, if we aren't on target for promotion next season Pardew will be history.

[CHAPEL END CHARLIE]

Yes you are right - Do think £3m realistic

 

The reported transfer fee is only a element of what a player actually costs the club , wages/bonuses/agents fees ... etc all have to be taken into account .

[Glasgow_Saint]

only 7-1 to get promoted, so odds to reach play offs would be less, so therefore still have a chance!

 

When they start quoting 50-1 it will be looking unlikely!

 

Those odds will be based on precedent and our side compared with others in L1.

It will also factor in the BIG bucks we have spent and the fact that no club will have spent so much and failed to get promoted from L1.

[shurlock]

Dont think you understand the theme of the recent postst

 

 

With Thomas Schenderlin Saga Lambert and Hammond available I make that over £3m but that was not being discussed only how much had been spent this season

 

Correct that we've spent £3m - your estimates are reasonable enough. But Glasgow was implying that with a £3m squad (no other club has not been promoted with such investment) we should be challenging for the playoffs or getting promoted. That's not the case if our squad has only been recently assembled i.e. FOnte and Seabourne. A full season with a multimllion pound squad would be a different proposition.

Edited 17 January, 2010 by shurlock

[Cabrone]

Although it looks very tough at the moment things could change quite quickly if we get another winning run back on.

 

However we have very little slack to play with now, consistent wins are a must.

 

IMO we have around a 25% chance of getting into the playoffs at the moment.

[saint lard]

If I read Cortese correctly, if we aren't on target for promotion next season Pardew will be history.

 

And so he should be.

[NickG]

Those odds will be based on precedent and our side compared with others in L1.

It will also factor in the BIG bucks we have spent and the fact that no club will have spent so much and failed to get promoted from L1.

 

so, in summary, how likely they think, as of today, we will either go up automatically or win play offs - a fair chance

[teamsaint]

our chance is that we keep progressing slowly up the league, and then go on a blinding run in March /April.

 

Theres a glimmer of hope , but that is all.

[shurlock]

only 7-1 to get promoted, so odds to reach play offs would be less, so therefore still have a chance!

 

When they start quoting 50-1 it will be looking unlikely!

 

7-1 odds are still long. Pompey have got 11/4 to stay up