stevegrant Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 Taking out any emotional attachment to any particular result, particularly thinking about Tuesday's defeat at Walsall, and ignoring the actual "performances" in terms of fluidity, cohesion, consistency, etc, and solely looking at the end results and the points accrued, I'm confused as to why so many people are so concerned about our current situation. Since the new year, we have picked up 24 points from 12 games, an average of 2 points per game - comfortably promotion form, in normal circumstances. The only problem - and it's something almost entirely out of our control - is the form of other teams. Brighton have averaged 2.33 points per game in the same period (albeit only 4 points more in total) and Bournemouth have averaged 2.21ppg. Leeds went up last season with 86 points, but based on form since the new year (at least 12 games), there are SEVEN teams who would end with more than that over an entire season: Brighton 2.33 (28 from 12) Bournemouth 2.21 (31 from 14) Peterborough 2 (26 from 13) Southampton 2 (24 from 12) Huddersfield 1.92 (25 from 13) Leyton Orient 1.92 (23 from 12) Rochdale 1.92 (23 from 12) Ultimately, we can only do what we can. 2 points per game is exactly where we should be aiming at over a long period of time (26 games between 1st January and the end of the season), and that's right where we are at the moment. We can only affect the performance of the other teams when we actually play them. In games against the current top 6, we've taken 11 points from 6 games, so not quite up to the 2pts per game target, but a win at Bournemouth next week would fix that in an instant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teamsaint Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 long term we have been doing 2 per game...with 7 home and 7 away we ought to carry on doing that. Bournemouth and peterborough have only 5 each at home, and have to play each other.you are right, its in our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmel Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 I agree to a certain extent, but if the standard set for automatic promotion is 2.2, that thats what we need to acheive and anything less is by default not enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turkish Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 Surely the whole point is that to win things you have to do better than those around you? If we are not then we aren't doing well enough, depsite what might be considered normal. I am sure Chelsea fans aren't saying they are happy with their current form and saying "we can only do what we can do, If Arsenal, Man United and City hadn't done better than us we'd be top" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 Brighton have averaged 2.33 points per game in the same period (albeit only 4 points more in total) and Bournemouth have averaged 2.21ppg. That's my concern, to get promotion we need to out perform one of these, and we are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 but a win at Bournemouth next week would fix that in an instant. I agree with all of your post, but just focussing on the Bournemouth game for one minute - it isn't a do or die game for us. Particularly if we win in midweek and they drop points at a trick game away at Exeter. We should beat yeovil and they might get 3 points at Exeter, but I don't think they will because Exeter isn't an easy one to win. The way I see it it's a much bigger game for them than it is for us. If we win we could be level with two in hand and that will effectively (imo) be them out of the running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deppo Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 Taking out any emotional attachment to any particular result, particularly thinking about Tuesday's defeat at Walsall, and ignoring the actual "performances" in terms of fluidity, cohesion, consistency, etc, and solely looking at the end results and the points accrued, I'm confused as to why so many people are so concerned about our current situation. Since the new year, we have picked up 24 points from 12 games, an average of 2 points per game - comfortably promotion form, in normal circumstances. The only problem - and it's something almost entirely out of our control - is the form of other teams. Brighton have averaged 2.33 points per game in the same period (albeit only 4 points more in total) and Bournemouth have averaged 2.21ppg. Leeds went up last season with 86 points, but based on form since the new year (at least 12 games), there are SEVEN teams who would end with more than that over an entire season: Brighton 2.33 (28 from 12) Bournemouth 2.21 (31 from 14) Peterborough 2 (26 from 13) Southampton 2 (24 from 12) Huddersfield 1.92 (25 from 13) Leyton Orient 1.92 (23 from 12) Rochdale 1.92 (23 from 12) Ultimately, we can only do what we can. 2 points per game is exactly where we should be aiming at over a long period of time (26 games between 1st January and the end of the season), and that's right where we are at the moment. We can only affect the performance of the other teams when we actually play them. In games against the current top 6, we've taken 11 points from 6 games, so not quite up to the 2pts per game target, but a win at Bournemouth next week would fix that in an instant. Someone's been well trained by Cortese Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 Oh and the bookies have us at between 5/2 & 7/2 ON for promotion, with Bournemouth 5/4, Hudds/P'boro 2/1, 7/1 BAR. All the negativity and doom mongering isn't shared by the people who make a living running books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
70's Mike Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 Looking at the league table we have now played same number of games at Home as Away. Bournemouth have played 2 more at Home than away, we are in a good position as long as we do not lose Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperMikey Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 We can't afford any more slip-ups. Automatic promotion is the aim, but even if we go unbeaten until the end of the season, the other clubs around us can still hinder us. It's really important that we pick up maximum points from our games in hand, and to do well against our promotion rivals. Given recent form i'd be happy with a point against Bournemouth, but it's vital that we beat Yeovil on Tuesday and get good results against Charlton and Sheff Wed in the coming weeks. Hopefully our rivals can slip-up against teams like Colchester, Carlisle, Charlton and Hartlepool - strong teams occupying mid-table positions that have good records against the top 6. April is going to be a massive month for the teams chasing promotion, there are quite a few run-ins between the top 6 teams like Peterborough vs Bournemouth on the 1st and Huddersfield vs Peterborough on the 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fitzhugh Fella Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 Steve - have you been taking NickG's medication by chance? To answer your question in one phrase I would say the reason I am concerned is because "we lack conviction" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doddisalegend Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 (edited) One word 'Expectation' a lot of people expect us to perform to a very high standard in this league given all our resources. I've said it before being 5th in this league this season just doesn't seem to be a great achievement really, in a higher league in previous seasons I'd be as happy as Larry, this season not so much. I thought (and I don't think I'm the only one) we would be doing what Brighton have been doing this season not spending most of the season trying to catch the likes of Bournemouth up. Edited 6 March, 2011 by doddisalegend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 We can't afford any more slip-ups. Of course we can and of course we will. So will other teams around us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chez Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 The only problem - and it's something almost entirely out of our control - is the form of other teams. Brighton have averaged 2.33 points per game in the same period (albeit only 4 points more in total) and Bournemouth have averaged 2.21ppg. er, but it is within our control to average more points per games than those two though. Come the end of the season and we come third there is no use saying it was beyond our control that the other two got more points than us. We are not playing well as a side. The quality of individuals is getting us wins. If we can click as a side then they'd be no stopping us. Adkins must find that elusive blend, style...that enables the side to play freely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank's cousin Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 One word 'Expectation' a lot of people expect us to perform to a very high standard in this league given all our resources. I've said it before being 5th in this league this season just doesn't seem to be a great achievement really, in a higher league in previous seasons I'd be as happy as Larry, this season not so much. I thought (and I don't think I'm the only one) we would be doing what Brighton have been doing this season not spending most of the season trying to catch the likes of Bournemouth up. But expectation needs to be countered by reason... If money and resources were to guarrantee success, then Chelsea and Man City would be fighting for top spot instead of 3-5th - Thankfully sport is not like that and football retains its interest because it inpredictable...at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 To answer your question in one phrase I would say the reason I am concerned is because "we lack conviction" That "lack of conviction" is just as applicable to fans. Instead of whinging all the time some of us need to get behind the team, but I wouldn't expect a millitant such as yourself to ever understand this concept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alpine_saint Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 It looks more and more like our season will be defined by next Saturday's game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saints-cris Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 To me our form isnt quite enough to make 2nd place ours, which is what we need. We havent had that blistering run which is what you need to get away from the pack. Brighton had that run, and because their a good side, have maintained good form protecting that massive lead they gave themselves. If we have that one good run, ala Millwall last year, or Brighton this year, then we will go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saints-cris Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 It looks more and more like our season will be defined by next Saturday's game. Will definately show the character of the side.. can we beat the teams aronud us when it really matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baird of the land Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 My issue currently is that i'm not convinced when things aren't going our way that Adkins has the ability to change things tactically. Both Hartlepool and Walsall seemed very similar in terms of Soton running out of ideas and adkins sitting back far too long and letting it happen. I'd worry about us in the play offs if we don't get automatic. I've never really had any doubt we'd make a minimum of the play offs, given the quality of players we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professor Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 Oh and the bookies have us at between 5/2 & 7/2 ON for promotion, with Bournemouth 5/4, Hudds/P'boro 2/1, 7/1 BAR. All the negativity and doom mongering isn't shared by the people who make a living running books. Bookmakers don't base their odds on what they think will happen - the odds are based on how much money has been bet on the various possible outcomes. A lot of the bets were laid at the start of the season when the resources SFC were supposed to be putting into the team, and the statements made about getting to The Prem in a couple of years, would have attracted a lot of punters, some of whom might now feel that their money is more at risk than they expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legod Third Coming Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 Bookmakers don't base their odds on what they think will happen - the odds are based on how much money has been bet on the various possible outcomes. A lot of the bets were laid at the start of the season when the resources SFC were supposed to be putting into the team, and the statements made about getting to The Prem in a couple of years, would have attracted a lot of punters, some of whom might now feel that their money is more at risk than they expected. Er not quite my friend. You've just made a hundred highly paid odds compilers redundant... Only the Tote pools pay out odds on weight of money alone. The remainder use odds compilers and take account of inside information, analysis, trends and eventually what people are backing to make their book. So in fact, bookmakers do base their odds entirely on what they think will happen. If they didn't they'd be bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmel Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 It looks more and more like our season will be defined by next Saturday's game. I really think it does and whilst the season is never about just one game, I am convinced that this will define our automatic promotion or play off final position. I have given up on first place, so that leaves one place to play for between 4 teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nexstar Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 It looks more and more like our season will be defined by next Saturday's game. This. Next Saturday is absolutely crucial to our season. If it's a draw, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGTL Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 I concur with the comments about next week. If we win I think we'll get 2nd, lose and it's gone, perhaps not mathmatically, but IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derry Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 More of a concern is the lack of goals from general play. Yesterday both goals came after set pieces and another two against Swindon for example. At the moment discounting penalties and direct free kicks Lambert has only managed 8 goals in 37 appearances, Lallana-10, Guly-9, Chamberlain-8 in about two thirds of the appearances have outscored Lambert although he has recently picked up 6 goals in the last seven games. I just don't see Lambert making the runs into the box any more, Ok he is in there for free kicks and corners but not by making runs when we are attacking. He seems to be out wide and passing the ball but as our main striker he is not getting in on goal and scoring from play. He just doesn't seem to be as aggressive and dynamic as last year. He was never quick but last year he was always dangerous this year drifting out wide he isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derry Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 It looks more and more like our season will be defined by next Saturday's game. I think Tuesday could define our season. If we win and Exeter beat Bournemouth it would put us 3 points adrift with two home games in hand. The result on Saturday would not be then so vital. Win and we are ahead, draw and we are 3 points behind and 2 games in hand, lose and we are where we are now. For that reason I think the results on Tuesday could either set us up for Saturday or turn Saturday into the most vital game of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 Steve - have you been taking NickG's medication by chance? To answer your question in one phrase I would say the reason I am concerned is because "we lack conviction" Barnard is trying to address that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickG Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 It looks more and more like our season will be defined by next Saturday's game. thought you had already said 2nd was impossible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derry Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 Of the 12 games played 8 have been away and brought in 14 points, Only 4 games at home brought in 10 points. We now are back with 7 home and away to play, so we should be looking to better the return rate of either Brighton or Bournemouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackFrost Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 It looks more and more like our season will be defined by next Saturday's game. Really? You said about a month ago our promotion chances were hanging by a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 I agree to a certain extent, but if the standard set for automatic promotion is 2.2, that thats what we need to acheive and anything less is by default not enough Yeah this. Not sure why so many are fixated with 2 ppg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dune Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 Really? You said about a month ago our promotion chances were hanging by a thread He'll have a field day if we lose next week, but even if we do lose it won't be all over for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Graffito Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 Steve - have you been taking NickG's medication by chance? To answer your question in one phrase I would say the reason I am concerned is because "we lack conviction" Who are you quoting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjii Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 (edited) Of the 12 games played 8 have been away and brought in 14 points, Only 4 games at home brought in 10 points. We now are back with 7 home and away to play, so we should be looking to better the return rate of either Brighton or Bournemouth. So that's 1.75 ppg away average. 2.5 ppg home average. If that is maintained: 12.25 points away from 7 games to play + 17.5 points from 7 home games. Lets's call it 17 and 12. 29 more points. That would give us 84. We would be pretty unlucky not to go up with that but it could be close. Just goes to show that home form is still key though. If we can win all 7 home games then our current away form would see us end with nigh on 90 points. Edited 6 March, 2011 by benjii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypochondriac Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 So that's 1.75 ppg away average. 2.5 ppg home average. If that is maintained: 12.25 points away from 7 games to play + 17.5 points from 7 home games. Lets's call it 17 and 12. 29 more points. That would give us 84. We would be pretty unlucky not to go up with that but it could be close. That's not the point though. If we got 100 points and finished third it will still have been a failure. We should have enough about us to finish second no matter what other teams do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captainchris Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 I think Tuesday could define our season. If we win and Exeter beat Bournemouth it would put us 3 points adrift with two home games in hand. The result on Saturday would not be then so vital. Win and we are ahead, draw and we are 3 points behind and 2 games in hand, lose and we are where we are now. For that reason I think the results on Tuesday could either set us up for Saturday or turn Saturday into the most vital game of the season. You talk about games in hand as guaranteed points on the board.....The team with the points on the board are Bournemouth not us................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjii Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 That's not the point though. If we got 100 points and finished third it will still have been a failure. We should have enough about us to finish second no matter what other teams do. No, it's exactly the point. This is a thread about form. Therefore it is going to involve looking at form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legod Third Coming Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 Why can't we just win every game until the end of the season and make all these bizzare numbers where we earn 2.25 points per game redundant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjii Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 Why can't we just win every game until the end of the season and make all these bizzare numbers where we earn 2.25 points per game redundant? TBF, I think that is what we are trying to do. Good idea all the same though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjii Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 The reason we do not already have one foot in the division above is our first four home games. Two points. Even if we had collected a paltry 6 points from our first four home games everyone (well nearly) would be completely confident of us going up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjii Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 In fact, having looked at the table in a bit more detail today I am more confident than ever. Brighton have one more point than us away from home in the same number of away games. Huddersfield have one more point than us from one more away game. No one else is really close. Bournemouth have played the same number of aways and have 3 fewer points. Bournemouth have only 5 home games left, one of which is obviously against us. There is no reason not to be confident. If we can win our home games, the aways should take care of themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjii Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 P'boro also only have 5 home games left, including against Bournemouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
70's Mike Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 In fact, having looked at the table in a bit more detail today I am more confident than ever. Brighton have one more point than us away from home in the same number of away games. Huddersfield have one more point than us from one more away game. No one else is really close. Bournemouth have played the same number of aways and have 3 fewer points. Bournemouth have only 5 home games left, one of which is obviously against us. There is no reason not to be confident. If we can win our home games, the aways should take care of themselves. agree lets hope the club takes the maximum number of tickets on offer for the away games, i think demand will be high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
um pahars Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 I suppose it all depends on what you deem as form, the context and what timeframe. Prior to yesterdays result if you had gone back 6 games, it was 11 pts (1.83 ppg) and if you had gone back 8 games to the period when I think we started struggling it was 12 pts (1.5 ppg). So both of those points hauls, combined with some stuttering performances had (and still has) me worried. I fully accept that now and then you have to grind out results, get lucky, have decisions go your way etc, but eventually I think you have to start playing with consistency, dominance and conviction. I think Chapel End Charlie had it right when he said: "In my view we just don't consistently play that well in all honesty and risking the wrath of the many who believe that performances don't matter as long as the results keep coming in then I'd also say that the quality of performance does actually matter because if you keep underperforming then sooner or later you are bound to drop more crucial points." I don't want Champagne football, nor do I feel the need for all of our performances to be top drawer, but I also think that the longer our stuttering performances go on, then the more times we will come a cropper (as on Tuesday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deppo Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 If we go up as runners up (or even as champions) but don't do it "with conviction", I'll be well p*ssed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 If we can win our home games, the aways should take care of themselves. Probably what the lads were saying on the coach up to Walsall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjii Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 Probably what the lads were saying on the coach up to Walsall. Doubt it. I expect they were listening to music and having a bit of banter etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 Doubt it. I expect they were listening to music and having a bit of banter etc. Doubt it, probably playing cards or on their PSPs etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjii Posted 6 March, 2011 Share Posted 6 March, 2011 Doubt it, probably playing cards or on their PSPs etc. Doubt it. Probably playing cribbage and Risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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