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Ten to go - how many points will we need?


EBS1980

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Ten to go and I think we will need 22 points to get 2nd place.

 

7 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats.

 

 

What do others think will be needed?

 

Difficult to say with Peterbro and Huddersfield having to play each other and other top teams but I dont think you are too far away with that to be honest.

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I think 85 points should do it.

 

All teams going for 2nd this season have been a bit up and down form-wise, no one has quite got hold of it at any point.

 

Those set of results you posted above look very realistic too and you also ave to take into account that Hudders and P'Boro play each other in a couple of weeks, so points will be taken off one of the chasers (maybe both).

 

We're in the driving seat and I honestly think we'll do it as long as we are in 2nd going into the last game.

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I think 85 points should do it.

 

All teams going for 2nd this season have been a bit up and down form-wise, no one has quite got hold of it at any point.

 

Those set of results you posted above look very realistic too and you also ave to take into account that Hudders and P'Boro play each other in a couple of weeks, so points will be taken off one of the chasers (maybe both).

 

We're in the driving seat and I honestly think we'll do it as long as we are in 2nd going into the last game.

 

I agree 85 should be enough, 87-88 would almost certainly do it barring P'boro winning 9 out of 9.

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This thread has actually made me really, really optimistic.

 

I've just gone back through our results in blocks of 10....

 

from today's game, back to the P'Boro 4-4 game, we've grabbed 21 points

 

from the 10 games before that...we got 20 points

 

and from the 10 games before that....we also got 20 points.

 

Basically, if we continue as we have been all season we should finish 2nd. We will need to have an awful dip of form to miss out...let's hope we don't.

Edited by S-Clarke
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My worry in the back of my mind are the 2 final games v the Pilgrims and Warsaw both are probably still going to be fighting for their lives to stay in the division, and anyone who went to Walsall in particular the other week will know that they have a bit of a siege mentality and are prepared to, metaphorically, die for the cause.

 

Results v Rochdale, Charlton, & Plymouth have to be taken advantage of without the pressure these in hand games the players seem to put themselves under.

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Exactly, so don't you think 93 points for second is probably a bit far fetched? All 3 of us will drop more points at some stage, as the season as a whole has shown. I still think it will go down to the last game.

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28.

 

People writing 20 points are loons.

 

Now we're not, 20/21 points should do it. I can't see why we'd need 28 points (93 in total). It's too tight this year to require a massive points total for 2nd imo..

 

I think 20 points is a realistic return, seeing as over the course of the seasons that has been our consistent return.

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For my money the next three games are key, 6 or 7 out of 9 from those and we are in good shape.

 

02 Apr 201115:00Milton Keynes DonsHomeLeague One05 Apr 201119:45Charlton AthleticHomeLeague One09 Apr 201115:00Leyton OrientAwayLeague One16 Apr 201115:00Bristol RoversHomeLeague One22 Apr 201119:45RochdaleAwayLeague One23 Apr 201115:00Brighton and Hove AlbionAwayLeague One25 Apr 201115:00Hartlepool UnitedHomeLeague One30 Apr 201115:00BrentfordAwayLeague One02 May 201115:00Plymouth ArgyleAwayLeague One07 May 201115:00WalsallHomeLeague One

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Now we're not, 20/21 points should do it. I can't see why we'd need 28 points (93 in total). It's too tight this year to require a massive points total for 2nd imo..

 

I think 20 points is a realistic return, seeing as over the course of the seasons that has been our consistent return.

 

Yep 6 wins 2 draws and a couple of losses should be OK

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yes 28 points would pretty much guarentee us promotion but for it to be needed your assuming Posh and Huddersfield will not loose another game this season which is totally unrealistic given that both of them average about 1.76 points per game and not the three they would average if they were invincible as you claim. We avergae about 1.8 points per game this season so basically if all three sides maintain preious form to the end of the season it will be stupidly tight with us finishing second with 82 points and a better goal difference.

 

To say that we cannot afford to loose a single game bettween now and the end of the season if we want to go up automatically is simply not realistic if you look at the form of the teams around us, we will all drop points and the stats say we will drop less and thus be promoted. STOP BEING A NEGATIVE DRAMA QUEEN sit back look at the FACTS and come to an EDUCATED SENSIBLE OPINION!

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I also think 20 points should do it. Two points per game over the next 10 games should very doable if you have aspirations to get top 2.

 

The relevant games on the final Saturday are

Hudds v Brenford.

P'Boro v Dag & Red.

Saints v Walsall.

 

I just hope we don't go into that final match having to rely on one of the others to cock up......

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I also think 20 points should do it. Two points per game over the next 10 games should very doable if you have aspirations to get top 2.

 

The relevant games on the final Saturday are

Hudds v Brenford.

P'Boro v Dag & Red.

Saints v Walsall.

 

I just hope we don't go into that final match having to rely on one of the others to cock up......

 

Those last day fixtures are bloody frustrating, I think whoever is in 2nd on the final day will stay there.

 

We possibly have a great chance with the plymouth game to do that.

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In my view 24 points would almost certainly guarantee promotion, this assumes 1 draw and 1 defeat from Peterborough's 9 remaining games, and 2 draws for Huddersfield in their remaining 8 games. As you can see I am hoping that Huddersfield beat Peterborough, whcih in my view is the best result for us, depending on our own results.

 

However, that being said we should be trying to win all our remaining 10 games and then we can worry about 95 points having been unrealistic. As with last night teams will have decisions go for or against them (as with the N'Guessan goal last night) and the one thing I will stick my neck out and state is that none of the top 6 will win all their remaining games!

 

I'm enjoying the fact we look favourite to win most (if not all) of our games this season.

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My worry in the back of my mind are the 2 final games v the Pilgrims and Warsaw both are probably still going to be fighting for their lives to stay in the division, and anyone who went to Walsall in particular the other week will know that they have a bit of a siege mentality and are prepared to, metaphorically, die for the cause.

 

 

Have you seen Plymouth's position? They will be down by then (if not already liquidated).

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20/21 points should be enough IMO. Posh and Hudds drawing would be ideal as a total of four points would be dropped by the teams around us rather than just 3 if one of them wins. Time to forget the 'games in hand + 3 points' type of thinking and concentrate on getting an average of 2 points per game. I believe that this will go down to the last game of the season and that we will be in second going into that game.

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On the basis of 6 points from every three games we would (roughly) need to win two of each of these mini sets:

 

MK h Charlton h Orient a

 

Gas h Rochdale a BHA a

 

'Pool h Brentford a Plymouth a

 

and then beat Walsall h to clinch it.

 

I prefer to think that before yesterday we had 4 mulligans (a lose or a draw) to spread over 11 games; last night I think we completely wasted one and now have just three remaining.

 

Therefore if we now use our 3 remaining lives on BHA and Orient and MK or Rochdale, then that leaves the remaining 7 as 'must win' games .... which will include four straight wins to finish it off .... squeaky bum time!

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May not be as many as some people expect. Just had a look at points total of teams finishing second for last nine seasons.

 

Leeds 86

Peterborough 89 (third team finished with 87!)

Forest 82

Bristol City 85

Colchester 79 (82 points was enough to win the league!)

Hull 86

QPR 83

Crewe 86

Reading 84

 

Highest total was 89 meaning we'd need 22 points, lowest was 79, meaning only another 12!

 

The average of that lot is 84.4 so round it up to 85 which means another 18 points required. However Saints being Saints we'll probably end up on 90 points and still finish third!

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May not be as many as some people expect. Just had a look at points total of teams finishing second for last nine seasons.

 

Leeds 86

Peterborough 89 (third team finished with 87!)

Forest 82

Bristol City 85

Colchester 79 (82 points was enough to win the league!)

Hull 86

QPR 83

Crewe 86

Reading 84

 

Highest total was 89 meaning we'd need 22 points, lowest was 79, meaning only another 12!

 

The average of that lot is 84.4 so round it up to 85 which means another 18 points required. However Saints being Saints we'll probably end up on 90 points and still finish third!

 

To get 89 we'd need 24,to get 79 we'd need 14

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P GD PTS

BRIGHTON 45 47 100

P'BORO 45 28 81

SOTON 44 37 80

HUDDSFLD 45 20 77

MK DONS 45 9 76

B'MOUTH 45 24 75

L. ORIENT 45 18 74

 

 

Above is a league table showing the top 7 positions in league 1 on the morning of Monday May 2nd 2011

 

Hence Huddersfield taking just 10 points from 7 games, their fans will be devastated if that happens.W3: D1:L3 I suppose, can't see it myself.

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May not be as many as some people expect. Just had a look at points total of teams finishing second for last nine seasons.

 

Leeds 86

Peterborough 89 (third team finished with 87!)

Forest 82

Bristol City 85

Colchester 79 (82 points was enough to win the league!)

Hull 86

QPR 83

Crewe 86

Reading 84

 

Highest total was 89 meaning we'd need 22 points, lowest was 79, meaning only another 12!

 

The average of that lot is 84.4 so round it up to 85 which means another 18 points required. However Saints being Saints we'll probably end up on 90 points and still finish third!

 

The table for 2008 was skewed a bit by Leeds getting a 15 point deduction. So you could argue their 76 points that season was really 91.

Taking that into account, the average 2nd place total is about 85.6 and the average 3rd place about 82.1.

 

You'd think 87 points should be enough to get second, so only another 22 to go ...

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I have played around with the BBC predictor and tried to do it in terms of optimistically realistically and pessimistically in respect of SFC. Pessimistically i.e. all results go against us needs 27, optimistically all sensible results go for us 15, and realistically around 21 ish. I think we will be confirmed second by May 2 when we wil be in Plymouth but you cannot exclude SFC from screwing things up until the last game particularly after the abysmal performance last night

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I ran quickly through the BBC predictor and came out with 19 Points as being enough. I assumed we will be beaten by Brighton and draw a few away games and even draw at home to MKD so have not been generous. The league is tight so I would guess there will be some surprises along the way. If we go on yet another 4 game winning run then we will put ourselves in pole position. Eminently doable, but this is Saints so, let's enjoy the ride..

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P GD PTS

BRIGHTON 45 47 100

P'BORO 45 28 81

SOTON 44 37 80

HUDDSFLD 45 20 77

MK DONS 45 9 76

B'MOUTH 45 24 75

L. ORIENT 45 18 74

 

 

Above is a league table showing the top 7 positions in league 1 on the morning of Monday May 2nd 2011

 

We'll all pickup more points that that IMO.

 

All we need to do is continue as we have been and secure 20-21 points from our remaining 10 games. That should do it, or at least put us in 2nd for the last day which is where we need to be.

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28.

 

People writing 20 points are loons.

 

despite you asking for reason debate on another thread this is your response???

 

Peterborough have been in amazing form for their last 9 games, their best spell of the season. They have won 7 and drawn 1. IF they can keep that amazing, season's best form for the last 9 games they will have another 22 points. We have a bit of a cushion of goal difference so that would mean we would also need 22.

 

Whyis 20 a loony call?

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Hence Huddersfield taking just 10 points from 7 games, their fans will be devastated if that happens.W3: D1:L3 I suppose, can't see it myself.

 

Just looked again and maybe i was a little hopeful that they would only draw with Tranmere,but even calling that a win still leaves them behind us on 79 pts. I dont think I was being to unrealistic. This is what I predicted.

Notts C home win

Tranmre away win

p;boro home draw

Charlton away draw

MK Dons away draw

Daggers home win

Brighton away loss

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