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Malaysia Airlines plane missing


melmacian_saint

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The mystery of flight 370 actually puts a mirror up to us and our beliefs. Many people rail against intrusive government and the nanny state - yet when some natural disaster, like floods, happens or a man made one like this - there is lots of outrage and feeling the government should have known more, done more, protected us more.

 

I sometimes think we've all become like the unthinking blimps carried around a spaceship in the film Wall-E. Wanting to never to have to face bad events or be self reliant.

 

It's an interesting point. A lot of government power ultimately comes from an abrogation of communal or personal responsibility.

 

You can't always link a call for government action with an abandonment of personal responsibility, though. The issue of flood protection in the Somerset levels is an area where the government could have helped a lot more without becoming a nanny state.

 

Also, I'm not sure how relevant the point is to MH370. The apparatus of nation states is pretty much the only way we're going to get close to a resolution in any search, unless we "take responsibility" and jump into ocean going coracles. Who else really has the capacity to lead recovery efforts?

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You can't always link a call for government action with an abandonment of personal responsibility, though. The issue of flood protection in the Somerset levels is an area where the government could have helped a lot more without becoming a nanny state.

 

Also, I'm not sure how relevant the point is to MH370. The apparatus of nation states is pretty much the only way we're going to get close to a resolution in any search, unless we "take responsibility" and jump into ocean going coracles. Who else really has the capacity to lead recovery efforts?

 

 

I think there is too much relying on the government to bail them out of situations they entered into of their own free will. Someone isnt always to blame. I would never buy a house on a flood plain - even if it had been flood free for 10 or 20 or 30 years. I wouldn't demand the government spend millions of other peoples money on making my house dry - taking it away from families who chose more sensible places to live. I do however know a guy who bought a riverside pub on a floodplain knowing full well it had flooded three times in the previous 10 years - he got a discount and is happy with his purchase and wont be demanding the Environment Agency canalise the river - the natural beauty of which is the reason he bought it in the first place.

 

Sure governments are the only ones who can lead search efforts. My point was really more about not lashing out somewhat hysterically (families of the lost excepted from this) if wreckage isnt immediately detected 1,500 miles from land in 12,000 feet deep water.

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The Royal Navy nuclear submarine HMS Tireless joins in the search for MH370:

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/04/01/missing-malaysian-plane-submarine-hms-tireless_n_5071208.html

 

Before we get our hopes up too highly the search area is a 98,000 sq mile box and I understand the submarine has to be with 5 miles (or so) of the locator beacon in order for the subs sonar system to detect it .... oh and just to make the task more difficult still the locator batteries are rapidly becoming exhausted.

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The Royal Navy nuclear submarine HMS Tireless joins in the search for MH370:

 

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/04/01/missing-malaysian-plane-submarine-hms-tireless_n_5071208.html

 

Before we get our hopes up too highly the search area is a 98,000 sq mile box and I understand the submarine has to be with 5 miles (or so) of the locator beacon in order for the subs sonar system to detect it .... oh and just to make the task more difficult still the locator batteries are rapidly becoming exhausted.

 

I wondered where batman had gone

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A Chinese ship searching for the missing Malaysia Airlines plane in the southern Indian Ocean has picked up a pulse signal, Chinese media say.

 

They say the signal has a frequency of 37.5kHz - the same as those emitted by the flight recorders.

 

Let's hope thus us promising . But maybe derry and co can advise on the frequency 37.5 frequency is this a standard feature or do in black boxes . Or could the Chinese have picked up the Ping from another aircraft

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A Chinese ship searching for the missing Malaysia Airlines plane in the southern Indian Ocean has picked up a pulse signal, Chinese media say.

 

They say the signal has a frequency of 37.5kHz - the same as those emitted by the flight recorders.

 

Let's hope thus us promising . But maybe derry and co can advise on the frequency 37.5 frequency is this a standard feature or do in black boxes . Or could the Chinese have picked up the Ping from another aircraft

 

Not so much another aircraft as other maritime equipment, apparently.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26905465

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If this guy on PPRUNE is to be believed I wouldn't hold out too much hope in it being found:

 

Quote:

"The hunt for the missing Malaysia Airlines plane has shifted below the surface, with the "towed pinger locator" deployed on Friday to search for the black box before its batteries expire."

 

I wish them luck with that. From experience on the SAA295 'Helderberg' job I know that they've got a sub-minimal chance of finding that pinger in the next week or two. This wreck will be found acoustically, that's almost for sure, but it'll be by low frequency (100kHz or better) side-scan sonar --- or perhaps by pp-magnetometer... Almost certainly not by a couple of pinger locators and most certainly not by a fleet of photogenic aeroplanes sent on a photo-opportunity in a show-biz charade to assuage the PR efforts of three politicians and to satiate half a hundred rolling-news networks on telly.

 

A comparison with the Helderberg job is quite informative, mostly for its differences rather than its similarities. The water depth was broadly similar, circa four and a half Klicks if I remember correctly in that case. We never found the pinger(s). Not acoustically, anyway. After the thirty days plus ten percent we gave up dragging pinger locators around the hydrospace of the survey ground. We had a list of the co-ords of hundreds of false positives because we were under orders from bozos ashore to crank the receiver gain up the the max, but nothing of any use.

 

We did eventually find the CVR, replete with dead pinger, but that was more or less by accident when picking up a piece of wreckage with which it was entangled. That thing of quasi-accidental discovery of the recorders is actually quite common. Same thing happened with Valujet in the swamp and yet again with TWA800. In both of those cases the {insert colo(u)r here} boxes were found when someone trod on them. We never did find the SAA295 FDR, despite the fact that it had been affixed to the aircraft immediately adjacent to the CVR. Hell, they never found the recorders from the two Boeings in lower Manhattan -- and that was a case where they knew to within ten metres or better the very exact three dimensional co-ordinates of the impact points and they had reps from Boeing subbies searching every scoopful of debris for the thick end of a year.

 

We had the same problem, in the case of SAA295, of people ashore repeatedly switching the target area(s) as is being experienced by the poor sods at the sharp end of the MH370 search. We dreaded the hour after the end of the morning 'prayer meeting' conference calls because we knew that someone ashore would get his pencil out and make up a new box, usually in a place which could not be reconciled with any of the previous ones. Out of earshot of the shadowy civilian guy from Virginia who was leading the search from below and behind, we used to refer to those boxes as "your target for tonight".

 

Same thing is happening with MH370.

 

If such a bet were enforceable, and if I could find any mugs foolish enough to be a counter-party to the bet, I'd happily and profitably give odds of 100:1 against them finding the pinger with a pinger locator. They've got, at most, a couple of weeks, with only a couple of ships, neither of which (incredibly), is simultaneously towing a 100 kHz side-scan sonar.

 

Even with vane depressors and drag reducing devices such as Hairy Fairy vortex interruptors on the lower quarter of the tow-cable, they'll be lucky to make much more than three or four knots of waterspeed. The end of line turnarounds are an absolute *****. In 87/88 we quit after doing a thousand square miles and we had the twin advantages of knowing quite accurately where the aircraft stoofed in and we had our tools in the water (titter ye not in the cheap seats!) at the locus within a week of the crash. These poor sods have none of those advantages and they are being led by an Air Chief Marshal who has reversed seamanship and placed the surface ships at the disposal and in the service of the air fleet instead of the other way around.

 

This evening, by any timezone, we enter the fourth week of the search and they haven't found so much as a satay stick from that aeroplane. If anybody has learned anything from the AF447 fiasco, then surely they must have learned that becoming fixated on theoretical back calculations of the impact point from subsequently discovered patches of identified and confirmed flotsam can lead to unwise people becoming target fixated on wrong locations.

 

With Helderberg we had two major advantages. One was that the flight deck crew had been aviating;navigating;communicating right up until very few (less than five) minutes before impact and had been giving copious amounts of positional and intention information to ATC. Very different to MH370. The other massive advantage we had was that the first confirmed patch of flotsam from the wreck was found, and its co-ordinates measured, just 12 hours after impact. The second patch was located just 12 hours after that.

 

Given the non-linearity of the mathematics of oceanic dispersal, any positional information from that elusive MAS satay stick, even if found during the fourth rather than fifth week, is likely to confuse rather than clarify the impact location. It'll tell you that the wreck lies in the SouthEastern quadrant of the Indian Ocean and not at some fairytale Dawson Field in one of the 'stans, but we pretty much know that anyway.

 

The ugly truth, quite certainly unpalatable to the two prime ministers and 230 sets of bereaved relatives, is that the best chance of finding the wreckage and a few fragments of human remains lies in a very long hard slog with side-scan sonar. It's a search which is likely to take very large fractions of a year or, more likely, multiple years. Enthusiasm for funding such a prolonged and open-ended search will surely dry up, as it always does, when the bills start flowing in and become overdue for payment.

Edited by aintforever
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The equipment the Chinese are using in footage appears to be one of these http://www.benthos.com/index.php/product/locators/dpl-275-locator -designed to be hand held by divers in shallow water, max usable depth 180m / 600 feet. Its hard to see how what they heard could be the plane. Hydrophones have been around since the 1930s. Its very odd a ship of the type and size of the Chinese ship doesnt have much more powerful technology built in.

Edited by buctootim
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It's ultrasonic so it has to be converted to audio frequencies if they're using headphones. The submarines have the most sophisticated equipment but it would need programming to search for the FDR signature. I don't know how complex this us, whether it's just a short burst or more complicated than that.

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It's ultrasonic so it has to be converted to audio frequencies if they're using headphones. The submarines have the most sophisticated equipment but it would need programming to search for the FDR signature. I don't know how complex this us, whether it's just a short burst or more complicated than that.

 

The frequency you want to search for can be readily changed. This vessel has the capability - and its just a sailboat run by a charity on small budget.

http://www.marineconservationresearch.co.uk/rv-song-of-the-whale/scientific-equipment/

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That won't be easy. I understand that the power is not that great and so the range is quite limited. HMS Tireless has the necessary equipment which presumably is why she's there.

 

I think what this whole episode has shown up more than anything else is how hopelessly out of date the location technology and data recording / voice recording is on planes. It would be easily technically possible and cheap to have a continuously updated gps location and a record of all data and voice retained for every flight.

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That won't be easy. I understand that the power is not that great and so the range is quite limited. HMS Tireless has the necessary equipment which presumably is why she's there.

 

It won't be easy. The distance sound can travel though water (deeper the water, further it can travel) whilst searching an area that is mahooosive.

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Looks like an Australian ship has picked up the black box signal. Reported on BBC.

 

Here is the latest update and information on the Australian find which is 600km from where the Chinese ship heard the pings. The Australian ship is towing the American specialist equipment.

 

Seems two distinction types of pings have been heard. One from the Black box and another from the cockpit pilots recorder.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26917934

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A post found in The Guardian says:-

 

"So they are picking up signals one day to the next, but they are hundreds of kilometers apart. This pretty much confirms to me

that a shark has indeed eaten something they are confusing for a black box, and is swimming around with it inside. Ocean currents

cannot explain distances as big as that. The key now is to find that shark, find out why it's swimming about like that and see what

contraption is carrying the signal. Do the authorities have a record of who has tagged sharks in the last few months? In the meantime,

MH370 is parked in a hanger somewhere."

 

:mcinnes::mcinnes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

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Right. Something is really not making sense to me.

 

We've been told that the Black Box pings have a limited range in water. Between 4 & 7 kms potentially.

 

We've been told they are looking in an area the size of Poland. The Chinese then find a ping using hand held technology in an area away from the main search grid earlier this week.

 

Today the Aussie ship has logged two pings and had contact for some considerable time. Also outside the earlier search grid and at a depth of 4.5kms approx.

 

Now on the information that we have been given all month, that means the Aussies must have sailed near as damn it right over the top of the bloody plane.

 

How? Everything I have heard today smells a funny colour.

 

And I HATE conspiracy theories.

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Right. Something is really not making sense to me.

 

We've been told that the Black Box pings have a limited range in water. Between 4 & 7 kms potentially.

 

We've been told they are looking in an area the size of Poland. The Chinese then find a ping using hand held technology in an area away from the main search grid earlier this week.

 

Today the Aussie ship has logged two pings and had contact for some considerable time. Also outside the earlier search grid and at a depth of 4.5kms approx.

 

Now on the information that we have been given all month, that means the Aussies must have sailed near as damn it right over the top of the bloody plane.

 

How? Everything I have heard today smells a funny colour.

 

And I HATE conspiracy theories.

 

 

Well I think you can discount the Chinese with their jamboree bag equipment. As per my post 744 the original search area was always too far south but I suspect that the Australians knew that anyway,they had to be seen to be following up on satellite data given to them. Their radar is probably one othe world's most efficient if they were actually looking in the right direction. They may well have gone back over old data and sent their equipment to roughly the right place eventually. Do not forget that the Jindalee system can theoretically spot a Cessna at over 3000km, probably more but they're not going to fall over themselves to announce what they watch and when.

Edited by Window Cleaner
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Right. Something is really not making sense to me.

 

We've been told that the Black Box pings have a limited range in water. Between 4 & 7 kms potentially.

 

We've been told they are looking in an area the size of Poland. The Chinese then find a ping using hand held technology in an area away from the main search grid earlier this week.

 

Today the Aussie ship has logged two pings and had contact for some considerable time. Also outside the earlier search grid and at a depth of 4.5kms approx.

 

Now on the information that we have been given all month, that means the Aussies must have sailed near as damn it right over the top of the bloody plane.

 

How? Everything I have heard today smells a funny colour.

 

And I HATE conspiracy theories.

 

Really quite predictable. I've been waiting for someone to suddenly stumble on the exact location, if this is what it is, ever since Weststand explained his information.

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Right. Something is really not making sense to me.

 

We've been told that the Black Box pings have a limited range in water. Between 4 & 7 kms potentially.

 

We've been told they are looking in an area the size of Poland. The Chinese then find a ping using hand held technology in an area away from the main search grid earlier this week.

 

Today the Aussie ship has logged two pings and had contact for some considerable time. Also outside the earlier search grid and at a depth of 4.5kms approx.

 

Now on the information that we have been given all month, that means the Aussies must have sailed near as damn it right over the top of the bloody plane.

 

How? Everything I have heard today smells a funny colour.

 

And I HATE conspiracy theories.

 

On that subject, I did have a look at the video you posted but just haven't gotten around to replying.

 

I've seen the notion that some of the Freescale lot were holding patents, but I've also seen discrepancies between the manifest and who they are supposed to be. Manifest doesn't really mean much though; there were already two Iranians flying on false papers.

 

There is quite a bit of background to this which may or may not be relevant. The Malaysians haven't been particularly helpful with the USA's "pivot to Asia" overtures and they haven't come out of this international incident with too much credit.

 

The sighting over the Maldives was never investigated with any vigour. The Maldives weren't part of the initial SAR net, and the reports that islanders saw a jumbo jet were dismissed out of hand with a denial. It's one of the few places where people actually saw something, FFS.

 

Was looking at the JORN radar coverage map last night, the military radar installations that cover northern arcs from three points of Australian origin.

 

jorn01.jpg

 

Seems weird that the Aussies didn't pick it up, given the search area and the obvious paranoia about wayward planes flying toward Western countries.

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Dubai Phil

 

Re We've been told they are looking in an area the size of Poland. The Chinese then find a ping using hand held technology in an area away from the main search grid earlier this week.

 

Today the Aussie ship has logged two pings and had contact for some considerable time. Also outside the earlier search grid and at a depth of 4.5kms approx.

 

If someone finds a pong in the area , then they should send boris Johnson over, hes good at Ping Pong

 

I will get my coat

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On that subject, I did have a look at the video you posted but just haven't gotten around to replying.

 

I've seen the notion that some of the Freescale lot were holding patents, but I've also seen discrepancies between the manifest and who they are supposed to be. Manifest doesn't really mean much though; there were already two Iranians flying on false papers.

 

There is quite a bit of background to this which may or may not be relevant. The Malaysians haven't been particularly helpful with the USA's "pivot to Asia" overtures and they haven't come out of this international incident with too much credit.

 

The sighting over the Maldives was never investigated with any vigour. The Maldives weren't part of the initial SAR net, and the reports that islanders saw a jumbo jet were dismissed out of hand with a denial. It's one of the few places where people actually saw something, FFS.

 

Was looking at the JORN radar coverage map last night, the military radar installations that cover northern arcs from three points of Australian origin.

 

jorn01.jpg

 

Seems weird that the Aussies didn't pick it up, given the search area and the obvious paranoia about wayward planes flying toward Western countries.

 

It seems that the surveillance is as required, is subject to weather and day night variations and only targets and dwells on single selected tiles of the area rather than sweeping. The tile surveyed provided the radar was operating may well have been nowhere near the flight path.

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It seems that the surveillance is as required, is subject to weather and day night variations and only targets and dwells on single selected tiles of the area rather than sweeping. The tile surveyed provided the radar was operating may well have been nowhere near the flight path.

 

Yeah, I heard something similar and have difficulty processing that.

 

If that's truly the case, then:-

 

1) I'm glad I don't live in Australia

2) I hope ours works differently.

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Yeah, I heard something similar and have difficulty processing that.

 

If that's truly the case, then:-

 

1) I'm glad I don't live in Australia

2) I hope ours works differently.

 

 

Everybody tries to hide the real capabilities of their equipment. I mean if Snowden hadn't found religion or whatever it was

most would never have heard of Pine Gap other than it being a monitoring station for Apollo missions or whatever. Now I've seen it described as a UFO base, an 8 km deep hole in the ground capable of recharging electric motors of Nuclear Subs in

the Pacific and hundreds of other whack theories. The entire Indian Ocean and Artic region is covered by a system of OTH radars, if MH370 went in that direction then it would have been seen unless there's a band about 100 metres wide between the overlaps.

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Don't be fooled by the Chinese stating they were using hand held technology. More likely they don't wish the world to know what technology they do possess. The longer they can remain in the area of Australia, and being capable of using sophisticated material, is more than they could ever hope for.

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It has been publicly acknowledge by the RAAF that its Jindalee 'Over The Horizon' radar network does not operate on a 24/7 basis:

 

https://www.airforce.gov.au/docs/JORN_FAQS.pdf

 

JORN was designed and acquired for the defence of Australia. In the context of the defence of

Australia and peacetime military operations, JORN is not resourced or tasked to conduct surveillance

operations 24-hours-a-day 7-days-a-week. To this end, JORN’s peacetime use is focused on searching

for those objects that the system has been designed to detect, thus ensuring efficient peacetime use of

JORN’s fiscal and staff resources.

 

Therefore if we combine the above information with the fact that this radar does not maintain a constant sweep-like coverage of the horizon (as convention radar systems do) but rather focuses its attention on a particular area (or 'tile') then a ready explanation as to why the Australians may not have been tracking flight MH370 is apparent.

 

Sorry I well know that none of this is as much fun as a good conspiracy theory is, but the world may just be a lot duller than some think.

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It has been publicly acknowledge by the RAAF that its Jindalee 'Over The Horizon' radar network does not operate on a 24/7 basis:

 

https://www.airforce.gov.au/docs/JORN_FAQS.pdf

 

Therefore if we combine the above information with the fact that this radar does not maintain a constant sweep-like coverage of the horizon (as convention radar systems do) but rather focuses its attention on a particular area (or 'tile') then a ready explanation as to why the Australians may not have been tracking flight MH370 is apparent.

 

Sorry I well know that none of this is as much fun as a good conspiracy theory is, but the world may just be a lot duller than some think.

 

Do you reckon they might switch it on in the midst of an international crisis when it might be needed?

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Do you reckon they might switch it on in the midst of an international crisis when it might be needed?

 

I have to ask why would the Australians be actively attempting to monitor a vast area of the (normally utterly empty) Southern Ocean, thousands of miles away from the last reported position of flight MH370, when there were much more likely search areas to explore first.

 

No nation wants to expose all the strengths and weaknesses of its most classified military capabilities, but had they somehow known that this aircraft was heading in their general direction then I suspect the RAAF would indeed have attempted to track MH370 via the Jindalee radar system. However, INMARSAT's pioneering work re the calculated MH370 track that is the basis of the current search effort was not formulated until a matter of weeks after this aircraft disappeared.

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I have to ask why would the Australians be actively attempting to monitor a vast area of the (normally utterly empty) Southern Ocean, thousands of miles away from the last reported position of flight MH370, when there were much more likely search areas to explore first. .

 

This is why.. stop-the-boats.jpg

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Is the following scenario feasible, and if it is, is this the reason no debris has been found to date?

 

Could MH370 have made a perfect/good landing on the surface of the Indian Ocean, whereby it sank intact without breaking up? If so, how long would the plane be expected to have floated before sinking? Could. due to an air bubble within the plane, it be lingering below the surface of the ocean and not have sunk to the ocean bed.

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Could MH370 have made a perfect/good landing on the surface of the Indian Ocean, whereby it sank intact without breaking up?

 

Many years ago I was a test engineer involved in testing the ditching characteristics of fixed wing aircraft. Unless the structural design of aircraft has altered dramatically in the past 30 plus years then I would say the answer to your question is an emphatic NO.

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Is the following scenario feasible, and if it is, is this the reason no debris has been found to date?

 

Could MH370 have made a perfect/good landing on the surface of the Indian Ocean, whereby it sank intact without breaking up? If so, how long would the plane be expected to have floated before sinking? Could. due to an air bubble within the plane, it be lingering below the surface of the ocean and not have sunk to the ocean bed.

 

It's consistent with the findings of the UN's early nuclear launch detection system, which also has the ability to detect large planes exploding.

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/missing-jet/u-n-says-it-detected-no-crash-or-explosion-n55256

 

However, it can also detect planes hitting the water. Perfect landing, maybe. Anything else, should have been caught.

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Many years ago I was a test engineer involved in testing the ditching characteristics of fixed wing aircraft. Unless the structural design of aircraft has altered dramatically in the past 30 plus years then I would say the answer to your question is an emphatic NO.

 

Then that's a no then :)

 

UN detectors would have picked it up.

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Is the following scenario feasible, and if it is, is this the reason no debris has been found to date?

 

Could MH370 have made a perfect/good landing on the surface of the Indian Ocean, whereby it sank intact without breaking up? If so, how long would the plane be expected to have floated before sinking? Could. due to an air bubble within the plane, it be lingering below the surface of the ocean and not have sunk to the ocean bed.

 

Ive been surprised by how calm the sea is in the area around where they are now searching. Landing and sinking intact is feasible imo. That begs the question of why no life rafts though, was everyone dead?

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Just to qualify my previous post: in the late 1970s / early 1980s I worked for Ditch Group at British Hovercraft Corporation on the Isle of Wight.

 

Back then – I assume it’s the same now – it was a CAA and FAA requirement that all fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters had to undergo an exhaustive series of ditching and flotation tests. The aim was to establish the optimum condition and best method for landing an aircraft on water.

 

In the case of fixed-wing aircraft, this was conducted by catapulting a scale model plane loaded with accelerometers, pressure gauges, scale-strength structural joints etc, into a large tank of water, which could, by means of wave-makers, be made to represent various sea states. Various rates of descent, forward speeds, yaw and roll angles, nose to tail attitudes etc were tested in order to establish the best method for landing a plane onto water. Of course, all this worked on the assumption that the pilot would actually have control over the aircraft – unlikely in most cases.

 

Based on 6 years experience – albeit over 30 years ago – let’s just say, I don’t bother to waste too much time listening to the emergency procedures to be undertaken in the event of a plane crash-landing on to water. In my opinion, it would actually qualify as a miracle for a plane of that size to land in the Indian Ocean – no matter how calm – without breaking up on impact.

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Then that's a no then :)

 

UN detectors would have picked it up.

 

 

Personally you could colour me dubious over tha capacities of the UN to detect anything whatsover,any time anywhere.

the UN is just a gabfest that does nothing unless they're forced to by one of the security council members.

On the calm sea front there was a major cyclone in the region now being searched a couple of weeks back, nothing would have stayed where it was on the surface. Anything that was there at that time will probably be washed up on Christmas Island in about 3 months.

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Many years ago I was a test engineer involved in testing the ditching characteristics of fixed wing aircraft. Unless the structural design of aircraft has altered dramatically in the past 30 plus years then I would say the answer to your question is an emphatic NO.

 

US1549 landed safely on the Hudson River. Different aircraft admittedly but would the characteristics been that different?

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