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Malaysia Airlines plane missing


melmacian_saint

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It appears to be the team from Malaysian Airlines. They may be just trying to shift the blame in a tense situation.

 

At this stage it's almost inconceivable that they would not have a representative of the government around though.

 

Whilst a team from the airline is the appropriate contact with the passengers, they would have no part in the investigation other than give access to the investigators to company records and personnel.

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Apparently all this satellite images were wrong and now they are 800 miles out ????

 

We are still looking for the 'haystack' as it were. As for locating the 'needle' it contains ... well that would appear to remain very much a longer term ambition I'm afraid.

 

You have to ask what did all those satellite and aircraft images actually show anyway? It seems to me there were merely low resolution unidentifiable shapes of varying sizes that could have been nothing more substantial than common flotsam or even sea ice for all I know. Observe any photograph of airliner wreckage and you will see that the internal surfaces of a aircraft's structure often appear a very distinct greenish/brown in colour - I saw no evidence of that.

 

None of this is any criticism of the international search effort by the way. The Southern Ocean is both a vast and a notoriously stormy place. So the difficulties of finding the site of a plane crash, weeks after it happened, when you don't even have a known 'datum point' to start the search from are severe. Obviously the action of the sea will result in whatever evidence there is inevitably being dissipated further over time. Therefore this near impossible task is becoming more difficult still with every passing day.

 

I understand the passive sonar of a French 'Marine Nationale' submarine played a key role in locating the wreck of the Air France Airbus A330 that disappeared over the Atlantic a few years ago. That type of naval assistance may be required again if any (slim?) hope of locating MH370 is to be realised.

Edited by CHAPEL END CHARLIE
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Somewhere on the news it states that the plane was travelling a lot faster than was first thought . Therefore it is 1100 km away where they thought it was

 

Am I correct in thinking that someone had control of the plane and therefore that negates the concept that the automatic pilot had kicked in ? Does the automatic pilot have the ability to make the plane go faster .?

 

Or did the idiot who had control think he could find land quicker if he went faster ? Not realising you would burn fuel quicker ?

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Now they're looking closer to the Australian coast (albeit still over 1,000 km away), could it be that if this was a 'hijack' situation, whoever had control of the plane was planning on landing it in Australia but misjudged the distance and fuel consumption?

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What's the maximum altitude the plane can reach before people start dying of brain hypoxia?

 

Presumably you mean if the cabin were to become unpressurised AND the oxygen masks didn't operate or ran out (I have no idea how long they last)?

 

This is an excellent article about it: http://www.avweb.com/news/aeromed/181893-1.html

 

It depends on what the aircraft is doing but even at just around 15,000ft, prolonged time at that altitude can lead to death...

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Presumably you mean if the cabin were to become unpressurised AND the oxygen masks didn't operate or ran out (I have no idea how long they last)?

This is an excellent article about it: http://www.avweb.com/news/aeromed/181893-1.html

 

It depends on what the aircraft is doing but even at just around 15,000ft, prolonged time at that altitude can lead to death...

 

About 15 minutes max, I believe; but, if you’re breathing heavily, a bit less.

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Somewhere on the news it states that the plane was travelling a lot faster than was first thought . Therefore it is 1100 km away where they thought it was

 

Am I correct in thinking that someone had control of the plane and therefore that negates the concept that the automatic pilot had kicked in ? Does the automatic pilot have the ability to make the plane go faster .?

 

Or did the idiot who had control think he could find land quicker if he went faster ? Not realising you would burn fuel quicker ?

 

 

Total f*ck up, where they're looking now the JORN system should have seen it, can't remember the cost of that, several billion aussie dollars I think. They'll say they weren't looking in that direction at that time which probably means that you could hit Perth with an ICBM an d they wouldn't even know about it. A multi billion dollar radar system being used to spot illegal immigrants...yeah right.

Edited by Window Cleaner
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At 37000 under a minute to unconsciousness without oxygen. There are three ways of controlling the speed of the aircraft. Auto throttle Off-- manually advance/retard thrust levers.

Auto throttle ON-- turn the speed control knob and set the speed in the speed window -- below 26000ft - knots, above - mach percentage. Enter speed in cruise page of FMC and select V Nav (Vertical Navigation)

Edited by derry
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To a layman like me this whole business seems to be raising some questions as to the proficiency of satellite technology. I guess those 1970s newspapers saying Soviet spy satellites could read newspapers from space were having a laugh.

 

Am I right to assume that satellites operating over more sensitive areas have a much higher resolution?

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Auto throttle ON-- turn the speed control knob and set the speed in the speed window -- below 26000 knots, above mach percentage.

 

You flew ABOVE 26000 knots at some point? What were you, a Space Shuttle captain? ;)

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What's the maximum altitude the plane can reach before people start dying of brain hypoxia?

 

It depends on the individual, eg. Everest 29000 ish climbed without oxygen after acclimatisation. Most long haul crew spend their working life at say 8000ft and regularly can operate up to 10000. I've operated higher than that in unpressurised aircraft due icing/weather without noticeable effect. Start dying? probably above 20000, just a guess.

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To a layman like me this whole business seems to be raising some questions as to the proficiency of satellite technology. I guess those 1970s newspapers saying Soviet spy satellites could read newspapers from space were having a laugh.

 

Am I right to assume that satellites operating over more sensitive areas have a much higher resolution?

 

I've met somebody who has in his office a picture of Vladimir Putin having a 'private' pis s against a tree in the middle of Kamchatka. That was a "lucky shot" apparently, but even so. So yes military 'spy' sateliites will have greater resolution than commercial satellites designed to photograph weather patterns etc. I guess the issue is satellites, once they're in place cant be moved so they are positioned to pick up places like airbases. Nobody is going to pay for a dedicated satellite to cover the middle of nowhere so the only shots emerging are from lower resolution commercial satellites which are primarily tasked for something else.

Edited by buctootim
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To a layman like me this whole business seems to be raising some questions as to the proficiency of satellite technology. I guess those 1970s newspapers saying Soviet spy satellites could read newspapers from space were having a laugh.

 

Am I right to assume that satellites operating over more sensitive areas have a much higher resolution?

 

An enhanced imagery satellite can distinguish a number plate on a car yes, but that's military hardware and they don't use them to find out what happened to dead people. Plus from what I remember they're all in much lower sun synchronous orbits.

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Next the Malaysians will be issuing a statement that they'd just found a previously unseen report found at the bottom of a pile of reports discovered on the desk of an official who'd been away on vacation.

 

" It is now known that MH370 landed in northern Thailand in the early hours of March 8th, refueled. As a result of this and satellite information , our experts have now calculated as having flown across the Pacific"!!!. Subsequently the search is being transferred to a zone 1000 miles off the coast of Peru."

 

It is shameful at the carry on. Not one piece of the 777 has been found to date. No wonder the relatives are losing it with such a band of incompetent idiots.

 

Elsewhere, a true report states that US ship and black box locator will arrive off the coast of Australia on the 5th April!!!!!!!!!!!

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Next the Malaysians will be issuing a statement that they'd just found a previously unseen report found at the bottom of a pile of reports discovered on the desk of an official who'd been away on vacation.

 

" It is now known that MH370 landed in northern Thailand in the early hours of March 8th, refueled. As a result of this and satellite information , our experts have now calculated as having flown across the Pacific"!!!. Subsequently the search is being transferred to a zone 1000 miles off the coast of Peru."

 

It is shameful at the carry on. Not one piece of the 777 has been found to date. No wonder the relatives are losing it with such a band of incompetent idiots.

 

Elsewhere, a true report states that US ship and black box locator will arrive off the coast of Australia on the 5th April!!!!!!!!!!!

 

How can you possibly criticise? All those involved are doing everything they can. If you know better then I'm sure they'd like to hear from you.

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Now they're looking closer to the Australian coast (albeit still over 1,000 km away), could it be that if this was a 'hijack' situation, whoever had control of the plane was planning on landing it in Australia but misjudged the distance and fuel consumption?

 

If a destination is entered in FMC there will be a final fuel figure shown on the Progress page. Otherwise Total fuel on gauges divided by total fuel flow on the engine gauges gives approx. endurance plus a bit for reduced power descent.

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If a destination is entered in FMC there will be a final fuel figure shown on the Progress page. Otherwise Total fuel on gauges divided by total fuel flow on the engine gauges gives approx. endurance plus a bit for reduced power descent.

 

 

Plus 3 weeks of drift, any light wreckage spotted now could easily be anything up to 500 nautic from the actual crash site.

Once some recognisable wreckage is found then they'd have to plot back for the time elapsed to determine probably crash sites. Think the prevailing surface currents down that way are WSW->ENE so any debris should be moving towards the Australian coast line.

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Plus 3 weeks of drift, any light wreckage spotted now could easily be anything up to 500 nautic from the actual crash site.

Once some recognisable wreckage is found then they'd have to plot back for the time elapsed to determine probably crash sites. Think the prevailing surface currents down that way are WSW->ENE so any debris should be moving towards the Australian coast line.

 

Its very approximate though, as this story shows.

http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/wilderness-resources/stories/what-can-28000-rubber-duckies-lost-at-sea-teach-us-about

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How can you possibly criticise? All those involved are doing everything they can. If you know better then I'm sure they'd like to hear from you.

 

I can understand where he is coming from and have some sympathy. Firstly the Malaysians should have handed the reins to the NTSB or AAIB. Secondly left it to their aviation people and not had the PM, DM or TM doing the briefings. My experience of that area is nobody will ever admit to not knowing let alone listening to 'inferiors'. Hence the cluster****.

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The longer it goes on the more Im convinced the plane was crippled by a fire or possibly a bomb and the crew were overcome by lack of oxygen / smoke / altitude.

 

All I hope is that the explanation for this turns out to be the one that caused / causes the least amount of pain and suffering to those on board and to their loved ones – probably oxygen starvation, I suppose.

 

However, in situations like these I tend to apply Occam’s razor, i.e. the idea that the simplest solution or explanation is usually the correct one. By ‘simplest’ I mean the one with the least amount of interconnecting variables or components. To my mind, in this incident the simplest solution is still pilot or co-pilot suicide.

 

Of course, Occam’s razor is only a heuristic device and cannot prove anything one way or the other, because a) ‘simplest’ is subjective b) the simplest explanation or solution is not always the correct one.

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It would explain the turn for the nearest airport and the rapid reduction in altitude.

 

 

Not really, the (Thai) radar showed that the aircraft was following a course along established waypoints Vampi, Gival, Igrex which are way way off where it should have been going. After that contact was lost but the aircraft is thought to have turned hard south. Everything points to deliberate actions by the person flying the aircraft. If the aircraft was in difficulty it would have been jettisoning fuel over the sea right ? Don't think that happened either.

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All I hope is that the explanation for this turns out to be the one that caused / causes the least amount of pain and suffering to those on board and to their loved ones – probably oxygen starvation, I suppose.

 

However, in situations like these I tend to apply Occam’s razor, i.e. the idea that the simplest solution or explanation is usually the correct one. By ‘simplest’ I mean the one with the least amount of interconnecting variables or components. To my mind, in this incident the simplest solution is still pilot or co-pilot suicide.

 

Of course, Occam’s razor is only a heuristic device and cannot prove anything one way or the other, because a) ‘simplest’ is subjective b) the simplest explanation or solution is not always the correct one.

 

Surely Occam's Razor would indicate a technical problem rather than a convoluted chain of events of a depressed pilot fighting off his co pilot and the passengers with the aim of killing himself and 245 people, not immediately, but some seven hours later when it runs out of fuel and no-one had attempted to break the door down with an axe.

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Not really, the (Thai) radar showed that the aircraft was following a course along established waypoints Vampi, Gival, Igrex which are way way off where it should have been going. After that contact was lost but the aircraft is thought to have turned hard south. Everything points to deliberate actions by the person flying the aircraft. If the aircraft was in difficulty it would have been jettisoning fuel over the sea right ? Don't think that happened either.

 

Possibly, hence the continuing confusion. All of the possible explanations have holes in them atm

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Surely Occam's Razor would indicate a technical problem rather than a convoluted chain of events of a depressed pilot fighting off his co pilot and the passengers with the aim of killing himself and 245 people, not immediately, but some seven hours later when it runs out of fuel and no-one had attempted to break the door down with an axe.

 

Well, Tim, like I said, ‘simplistic’ is subjective, and maybe a mechanical or electrical malfunction maybe a simpler explanation. However, it seems to me that a suicidal pilot or co-pilot wouldn’t have to fight anyone – he would simply lock them out of the flight-deck, and instigate everything that we know did happen himself, i.e. turn off communications, alter course etc.

 

As for why he would fly for seven hours until the fuel ran out, well, I think it was Whitey who made the point several days ago that it is impossible for rationally minded people to interpret the actions or behaviour of irrational minds.

 

But, I really hope I’m wrong about this.

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Well, Tim, like I said, ‘simplistic’ is subjective, and maybe a mechanical or electrical malfunction maybe a simpler explanation. However, it seems to me that a suicidal pilot or co-pilot wouldn’t have to fight anyone – he would simply lock them out of the flight-deck, and instigate everything that we know did happen himself, i.e. turn off communications, alter course etc.

 

As for why he would fly for seven hours until the fuel ran out, well, I think it was Whitey who made the point several days ago that it is impossible for rationally minded people to interpret the actions or behaviour of irrational minds.

 

But, I really hope I’m wrong about this.

 

Sure, I'm not contradicting you. As I said to Window above - the problem is there are flaws with all the current theories so far - and nearly all of them point to an awful end. Horrible situation.

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Hmmm

 

A 'blow torch' fire which ripped through the cockpit of a Boeing 777 in Egypt three years ago could hold the clue to the fate of the missing Malaysia Airlines flight, it has been claimed.

 

Stewarts Law, which has litigated in a series of recent air disasters, believes the plane crashed after a fire - similar to the blaze on the Cairo airport runway- broke out in the cockpit.

 

Since the Beijing-bound airliner disappeared on 8 March with 239 people on board speculation has been rife about whether foul play by either the pilots or someone aboard led the aircraft to disappear.

Scroll down for video

 

 

article-2591402-1CA3EBAE00000578-270_634x478.jpg+5

 

A fire which led to a Boeing 777 being written off in Egypt in 2011 could explain the disappearance of the Malaysia airlines jet, it has been claimed

 

 

But James Healy-Pratt, a member of the firm who is also a pilot said: 'We believe in the simpler explanation that there was probably a form of electrical fire leading to a rapid decompression and that then resulted in the turn-back and the aircraft disappearing somewhere in the Indian Ocean,' he told The Times.

 

The British law firm, which is advising families of the missing passengers, is comparing the current situation with a fire that broke out on the flight deck of an EgyptAir Boeing 777-200 with 291 passengers on board as it prepared to depart for Jeddah from Cairo airport.

The crew and passengers escaped without injury, although seven people including passengers, Egyptair staff and fire fighters suffered from mild asphyxia and were transferred to hospitals.

 

article-2591402-1CA3EC7000000578-687_634x638.jpg+5

 

The burnt interior of the Boeing 777 after the fire broke out in 2011

 

 

 

article-2591402-1CA3EBC700000578-867_634x478.jpg+5

 

A British law firm is comparing the current situation with a fire that broke out on the flight deck of an EgyptAir Boeing 777-200 with 291 passengers on board prepared to depart for Jeddah, pictured

 

 

[h=3]WHAT CAUSED THE 2011 FIRE ON BOEING IN CAIRO AIRPORT ?[/h]When the captain was preparing the aircraft for departure the oxygen levels were normal.

But 30 minutes later the first officer heard a pop followed by a hissing sound underneath a cockpit window to the right.

 

The captain tried to put it out using the fire extinguisher available in the cockpit, but it was too powerful and firefighters worked at extinguishing it for over an hour.

 

The crew and passengers escaped without injury, although seven people including passengers, Egyptair staff and fire fighters suffered from mild asphyxia and were transferred to hospitals.

After an investigation Egypt's Aircraft Accident Investigation Central Directorate (EAAICD) released their final report which revealed that the fire originated near the first officer's oxygen mask supply tubing.

Oxygen from the flight crew oxygen system is suspected to have contributed to the fire's intensity and speed.

 

The cause of the fire could not be conclusively determined. It is not yet known whether the oxygen system breach occurred first, providing a flammable environment or whether the oxygen system breach occurred as a result of the fire.

 

Investigators pinpointed a problem with the cockpit hose used to provide oxygen for the crew in the event of decompression.

 

Following the 2011 blaze US aircraft owners were instructed to replace the system - it was estimated to cost $2,596 (£1,573) per aircraft.

 

It was not known whether Malaysia Airlines had carried out the change.

 

 

When the captain was preparing the aircraft for departure the oxygen levels were normal, but 30 minutes later the first officer heard a pop followed by a hissing sound underneath a cockpit window to the right.

 

The captain tried to put the fire out using the fire extinguisher available in the cockpit, but it was too powerful and firefighters worked at extinguishing it for over an hour.

 

After an investigation Egypt's Aircraft Accident Investigation Central Directorate (EAAICD) released their final report which revealed that the fire originated near the first officer's oxygen mask supply tubing - investigators pinpointed a problem with the cockpit hose used to provide oxygen for the crew in the event of decompression.

 

Following the 2011 blaze US aircraft owners were instructed to replace the system.

 

It is unclear if Air MH370 was one of the affected planes.

 

'In simple terms, this fault can cause a blowtorch type fire that will melt aluminium in a matter of seconds,' said James Healy-Pratt, told The Telegraph.

 

'We believe that in due course, the crew will be regarded as heroes rather than villains, and we sincerely hope the Black Boxes will contain the data to back that up, and to prevent further needless loss of life,' Mr Healy-Pratt added.

 

The cockpit fire theory has been supported by Chris Goodfellow, a Canadian pilot with 20 years experience, who hailed captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah as a hero, not a hijacker, in his fascinating explanation, which claims to debunks all theories about the fate of the missing jet.

He insists the only reasonable scenario is that a fire broke out aboard the plane and Shah was doing exactly what he needed to do in an emergency - get the plane to the nearest airport as soon as possible.

 

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Hmmm

 

Thats my current theory too (see post 640). Electrical fire, systems shut down or disabled, blow out depressurisation, plane crippled. Apparently there are recognised inconsistencies / problems with the cockpit wiring of 280 of the 777s delivered so far.

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I suggested that on page 7 but apparently it's been debunked, not sure how.

Maybe because the only fact it fits is the one that attorneys have filed a lawsuit against Boeing.

 

For what it's worth, not much I know, my money's on the same horse as Eric Moody's. Somebody deliberately flew the plane to wherever it ended up. That does fit with the known facts. Don't know who or why.

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Maybe because the only fact it fits is the one that attorneys have filed a lawsuit against Boeing.

 

For what it's worth, not much I know, my money's on the same horse as Eric Moody's. Somebody deliberately flew the plane to wherever it ended up. That does fit with the known facts. Don't know who or why.

 

Agree. I think someone, most likely the pilot or co-pilot, went nuts (or make a protest), turned the comms of and made the sharp turn. The crew obviously shat themselves so after a period of trying to reason with him attempted to smash the cock-pit door in. That's when he made the sharp ascent - to either stop them breaking the door down or to do them in. Then either the plane flew South on auto-pilot with everyone dead or the perpetrator wanted to hide what he had done.

Edited by aintforever
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Agree. I think someone, most likely the pilot or co-pilot, went nuts (or make a protest), turned the comms of and made the sharp turn. The crew obviously shat themselves so after a period of trying to reason with him attempted to smash the cock-pit door in. That's when he made the sharp ascent - to either stop them breaking the door down or to do them in. Then either the plane flew South on auto-pilot with everyone dead or the perpetrator wanted to hide what he had done.

 

Botched hijacking is a far easier explanation.

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Agree. I think someone, most likely the pilot or co-pilot, went nuts (or make a protest), turned the comms of and made the sharp turn. The crew obviously shat themselves so after a period of trying to reason with him attempted to smash the cock-pit door in. That's when he made the sharp ascent - to either stop them breaking the door down or to do them in. Then either the plane flew South on auto-pilot with everyone dead or the perpetrator wanted to hide what he had done.

 

According to this Daily Mail article (Britain's least accurate newspaper), the plane was tracked flying at 43,000ft for 23 minutes.

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2588109/How-got-After-Malaysia-Airlines-jet-said-crashed-Indian-Ocean-look-ended-far-course.html

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What are the explanations on the functions, or rather malfunctions of the autopilot. Are they recorded flight plans which could, in the case of fire, malfunction, sending the flight on to another flight path?

 

Would the autopilot of the entire flight, in both directions, be already programmed into the auto pilot? If that was the case, could a fire cause the auto pilot to Beijing to fuse, and/or, the auto pilot for the return journey, swing into action, thus sending the plane into the opposite/or. southerly direction?

 

I have no knowledge of auto pilot function but just wonder what malfunctions can/could occur?

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If my understanding of the established timeline of events is in fact correct - IE data transmission systems were being deactivated aboard this aircraft before the co-pilot's final radio communication with Malaysian ATC - then the fact that the aircrew did not report any problem at that time strongly suggests to me that the loss of MH370 is more likely be the result of some form of Human action, rather than any sudden (and catastrophic) technical failure aboard this hitherto reliable aircraft design.

 

Additionally, the distinctly informal and non regulation nature of that final brief conversation: "all right, good night" is also suggestive of something untoward occurring in the cockpit of this aircraft.

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If my understanding of the established timeline of events is in fact correct - IE data transmission systems were being deactivated aboard this aircraft before the co-pilot's final radio communication with Malaysian ATC - then the fact that the aircrew did not report any problem at that time strongly suggests to me that the loss of MH370 is more likely be the result of some form of Human action, rather than any sudden (and catastrophic) technical failure aboard this hitherto reliable aircraft design.

 

I think they later changed their interpretation of this. I think the ACARS reported every 30 minutes and the next report was due after the last ATC contact so they don't know exactly when it was deactivated. I can't remember when the transponder was turned off but I'm sure the ATC would have mentioned it.

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Possibly, hence the continuing confusion. All of the possible explanations have holes in them atm

Hijacker(s) plan a 9/11 type suicide mission into some Asian target. Order pilots to turn off all communication and head to said target. Pilots guess motive and pretend to cooperate, but instead fly/program plane to vast Indian ocean, to spare lives on the ground. By the time hijacker(s) realise they are heading in the wrong direction pilots maybe already killed, but there is not enough fuel to get to any land anyway.

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The longer it goes on the more Im convinced the plane was crippled by a fire or possibly a bomb and the crew were overcome by lack of oxygen / smoke / altitude.

 

 

A quick dramatic and immediate "event" to decimate the cockpit area is a very feasible concept

 

BUT

 

It doesn't explain subsequent course change(s) though, or how it flew on Auto for a further circa 5 hours ??

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If there was a catastrophic fire in the flight deck the power to the computers and autopilot/autothrottle would be cut so the aircraft would not follow a course or hold a height. The autothrottles might even retard and leave the engines on idle. I don't buy this theory, somebody set the aircraft on it's final course from the Malacca Strait to a point west of Australia (If that's where it is eventually found to be)

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If there was a catastrophic fire in the flight deck the power to the computers and autopilot/autothrottle would be cut so the aircraft would not follow a course or hold a height. The autothrottles might even retard and leave the engines on idle. I don't buy this theory, somebody set the aircraft on it's final course from the Malacca Strait to a point west of Australia (If that's where it is eventually found to be)

To my mind it is the scenario where the pilot gave the Malaysian gov the ultimatum about releasing his friend or he would crash the aircraft. They said no and so goodnight nurse, Malaysia and allies have played the wild goose chase and know that the black box will not be found. Anyway that's my conspiracy theory and feel it is not that unrealistic

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I've given this thread a relatively wide berth in recent days after scatter-gun accusations of attention-seeking started doing the rounds, preferring instead to follow the story elsewhere.

 

A lot of faith was placed in the "never done before" Inmarsat doppler analysis. Can I ask whether people still have faith in these findings, given that they've turned up nowt so far?

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I've given this thread a relatively wide berth in recent days after scatter-gun accusations of attention-seeking started doing the rounds, preferring instead to follow the story elsewhere.

 

A lot of faith was placed in the "never done before" Inmarsat doppler analysis. Can I ask whether people still have faith in these findings, given that they've turned up nowt so far?

 

I think they're 'better than nothing' but any indications of location are going to be very approximate. The latest change of search area to one further north is because they have decided that the plane was flying faster in the early phases where they could track it so it would have used up its fuel earlier. It's quite possible that no trace will ever be found.

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