View From The Top Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 I am!! Then you are a genuine hero and I'd buy you a pint any day of the week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Kraken Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 I am!! Then you, sir, are my new hero. I also enjoyed the analogy "it was like navigating one's way up a badger's arse" when describing the recovery and eventual landing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Verbal Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 Then you are a genuine hero and I'd buy you a pint any day of the week! Quite so. That was extraordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pap Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 (edited) Quite so. That was extraordinary. Does this mean you'll be calling your aintforever attack dog to heel, Verbal? Edited 22 March, 2014 by St Chalet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buctootim Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 This has got a rather childish thread. Yes I do know someone at a high position in Inmarsat and he confirmed what I wrote, but it appears that some of you know better. I accept this as fact. As for my assertion that I think that some government/body knows something that they are reluctant to disclose is based on personal experience. I was involved in an incident in 1982 out over the South Eastern Indian Ocean just off Java when something happened which I didn’t understand. At that time we commercial pilots were unaware that the US had satellites monitoring that part of the world. It appeared that not many governments, if any, in that part of the world knew those satellites were there, let alone what they were monitoring. I found out some 11 years later, when the information became declassified, that we were monitored throughout the incident. This area is not at war but governments don’t want to let others know their capabilities so we don’t know what is being ‘watched’. It would seem more likely than not that somewhere evidence is not being disclosed to the general public and communication between governments will not be open. If I was being monitored in 1982 it would be a fair bet that MH370 was being monitored too by someone in 2014. On this basis I wrote that I think that somebody somewhere knows something that we are unaware off yet. It is my opinion to which I am entitled, others may disagree but sarcasm and rudeness gets us nowhere. You have my utmost unconditional respect for the Indonesian incident, which is one of legendary stories in aviation history. Where I disagreed with you, and still disagree is that Inmarsat have a GPS location for the plane. Thats very different from what you're saying now which is that Government intelligence services probably have additional info about the flight. No-one on this thread has disputed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hutch Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 The anger and frustration of the Chinese government towards the Malaysian and other local governments for 'looking in the wrong place' in the first couple of days of the search spoke volumes to me. It was obvious that they knew something. Some of the idiots on this forum now owe Captain Moody an apology in my opinion. Let's see if they have the balls to step up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shurlock Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 This has got a rather childish thread. Yes I do know someone at a high position in Inmarsat and he confirmed what I wrote, but it appears that some of you know better. I accept this as fact. As for my assertion that I think that some government/body knows something that they are reluctant to disclose is based on personal experience. I was involved in an incident in 1982 out over the South Eastern Indian Ocean just off Java when something happened which I didn’t understand. At that time we commercial pilots were unaware that the US had satellites monitoring that part of the world. It appeared that not many governments, if any, in that part of the world knew those satellites were there, let alone what they were monitoring. I found out some 11 years later, when the information became declassified, that we were monitored throughout the incident. This area is not at war but governments don’t want to let others know their capabilities so we don’t know what is being ‘watched’. It would seem more likely than not that somewhere evidence is not being disclosed to the general public and communication between governments will not be open. If I was being monitored in 1982 it would be a fair bet that MH370 was being monitored too by someone in 2014. On this basis I wrote that I think that somebody somewhere knows something that we are unaware off yet. It is my opinion to which I am entitled, others may disagree but sarcasm and rudeness gets us nowhere. Just slightly! Who said the stiff upper lip has had its day. My young kid brother can't get enough of those National Geographic airline shows and wants to be a pilot because of feats likes yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubai_phil Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 (edited) You have my utmost unconditional respect for the Indonesian incident, which is one of legendary stories in aviation history. Where I disagreed with you, and still disagree is that Inmarsat have a GPS location for the plane. Thats very different from what you're saying now which is that Government intelligence services probably have additional info about the flight. No-one on this thread has disputed that. Again. Watching the current crop of breaking news on Sky (More pictures of "Wreckage") a number of "assumptions" can be made from the way things are streaming together. 1) Satellites don't look at their own pictures, analysts do. So who started to look at the Southern Ocean pictures and when? Was it the same day of the Inmarsat Ping? 2) The Aussies had mobilised into the Southern Ocean search area very quickly, but we have heard very little of any efforts up in "Khazakstan/Northern Arc" 3) IF MH370 had flown the southerly arc THEN it crossed through Indonesian Airspace. I'm no professional pilot, but I do know that ANY pop-up traffic on radar is contacted and any contact with no Transponder would create a set of reactions including attempts to contact by radio.... FFS how many times did we read stories of the RAF being scrambled to chase away "Un-authorised Soviet attempts to penetrate our airspace" IF these wreckage pictures ARE of MH370 then there is no way the 777 could have had the range to reach the Southern Ocean IF it was flying at low level below even the basic Indonesian ATC radar, let alone any military capacity they would have had...... So why did THEY i) Not tell the Malaysians very quickly or ii) Why did the Malaysians ignore it IF they were told iii) Was this why the Chinese were so angry? Something still doesn't add up, but I really do not think the answer lies in ONLY Inmarsat & West Stand Dave's useful points Edited 22 March, 2014 by dubai_phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KelvinsRightGlove Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 So hang on, Courtney Love didn't solve it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Window Cleaner Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 So hang on, Courtney Love didn't solve it? We cannot possibly know that yet. Anyone who's stuck a pin in a map has as good a chance as anyone else. However the Australian search zone did look too far south to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 This has got a rather childish thread. Yes I do know someone at a high position in Inmarsat and he confirmed what I wrote, but it appears that some of you know better. I accept this as fact. As for my assertion that I think that some government/body knows something that they are reluctant to disclose is based on personal experience. I was involved in an incident in 1982 out over the South Eastern Indian Ocean just off Java when something happened which I didn’t understand. At that time we commercial pilots were unaware that the US had satellites monitoring that part of the world. It appeared that not many governments, if any, in that part of the world knew those satellites were there, let alone what they were monitoring. I found out some 11 years later, when the information became declassified, that we were monitored throughout the incident. This area is not at war but governments don’t want to let others know their capabilities so we don’t know what is being ‘watched’. It would seem more likely than not that somewhere evidence is not being disclosed to the general public and communication between governments will not be open. If I was being monitored in 1982 it would be a fair bet that MH370 was being monitored too by someone in 2014. On this basis I wrote that I think that somebody somewhere knows something that we are unaware off yet. It is my opinion to which I am entitled, others may disagree but sarcasm and rudeness gets us nowhere. But if the Inmarsat ping definitely gives a GPS position don't you think the Chinese and the rest of the aviation industry would be fully aware of it's capability? It's not like it's top secret military technology, it's available for anyone to buy on the open market. From what i can see it's not the sort of info that could be kept under wraps. I can understand a country's military wanting to be a bit cagey about what they can and cannot see (and that's a different matter) but this is a private company with a commercial product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weston Saint Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 With West Stand identity now know I will bow out of this thread. Sorry if I got a bit heated. I knew who he was and his sources but it was not my place to disclose his identity. I have no idea what happened and have no technical knowledge but I have him one side and Derry the other at all home matches so some it must rub off!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saintbletch Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 Apologies for my ignorance on the subject, but I'm interested in whether these ping handshakes contained GPS information, however I haven't followed the whole debate. Is the contentious point that the airline refused to pay the £6 for a service from Inmarsat and as a result the location of the aircraft wasn't tracked? Or was there some form of mechanical / equipment issue that stopped the plane from reporting its position in the handshake with the satellite? I am!! Respect Sir. I am a however little concerned about your apparent familiarity with the inner workings a badger. You must be from the 'Forest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trousers Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 With West Stand identity now know I will bow out of this thread. Sorry if I got a bit heated. I knew who he was and his sources but it was not my place to disclose his identity. I have no idea what happened and have no technical knowledge but I have him one side and Derry the other at all home matches so some it must rub off!! If people had done a bit of research (aka look at his previous posting history) they'd have known who 'West Stand' is. I feel privileged and humbled to share a forum with someone who I view as a living legend and genuine hero, so please keep sharing your insights with us sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubai_phil Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 If people had done a bit of research (aka look at his previous posting history) they'd have known who 'West Stand' is. I feel privileged and humbled to share a forum with someone who I view as a living legend and genuine hero, so please keep sharing your insights with us sir. Post of the year sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pap Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 Post of the year sir. Golden thread, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pap Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 Maybe he should call one of the thousands of people searching for the plane and let them in on his little secret? I don't doubt the fact that we are not being told everything but if it is common knowledge within the industry that the engines give off a GPS position then that's not the sort of information a government would or could withhold. Lol. ITK as always. Of course! Just as he was Tommac - also a flying ace. The Chinese are going to be right f*cked off when they find out West Stand knew how to find their plane all along. This could get interesting. Exactly, the idea that they have an exact GPS position of where this plane crashed and they are suppressing it is just too far fetched IMO. The capabilities of the technology used in the engines would be common knowledge within the industry, it is not information that could or would be kept secret. The internet is awash with "look at me Im a pilot" type people talking sh!te. It's just a vehicle for their attention seeking alot of the time. Nonsense aintforever. We have our own lifesaving pilot friend of Derry and weston right here to tell us how wrong that is. Right? Sterling work, chumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 Sterling work, chumps. All valid points. How's the Lee Rigby false flag theory getting on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hutch Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 All valid points. Particularly this one... The internet is awash with "look at me Im a pilot" type people talking sh!te. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pap Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 All valid points. How's the Lee Rigby false flag theory getting on? It's funny. You were disgusted when I wanted to discuss the Woolwich incident, to the point where you left the thread after Dave commanded you to. It's odd that you now view the incident as no more than chaff to deploy when you are wrong, which is often. If this was a Friends episode, it'd be called "The One Where Aintforever Tried to Bully an International Hero and Got F**king Pwned". Chin up, mate. At least you've found your level. It's hypo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 Gentlemen, this is undignified. Let's spare a thought for the relatives and loved ones of those who are missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 Particularly this one... That is perfectly valid, on http://www.pprune.org there are plenty of current professional pilots who's theories get debunked by more knowledgable posters (not me of course). A big gripe on there is people appearing in the media who don't really know what they are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 It's funny. You were disgusted when I wanted to discuss the Woolwich incident, to the point where you left the thread after Dave commanded you to. It's odd that you now view the incident as no more than chaff to deploy when you are wrong, which is often. If this was a Friends episode, it'd be called "The One Where Aintforever Tried to Bully an International Hero and Got F**king Pwned". Chin up, mate. At least you've found your level. It's hypo. I havn't tried to bully anyone, just disagreed with his theory. Nothing wrong with that. Despite his legendary status for whatever he did I am still not convinced it's a big cover up. Happy to be proved wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 More on the ping thing here: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370-would-have-been-found-if-communications-box-had-10-upgrade-1441174 Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 Would Have Been Found If Communications Box Had $10 Upgrade The missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 might have been found by now if a small communications box on the plane had been configured to send out more frequent reports, according to British satellite communications firm Inmarsat. Timeline Malaysia Airlines' Missing Flight MH370 Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 took off from Kuala Lumpur International Airport for Beijing with 239 people onboard at 00:41 local time on 8 March but lost contact with air traffic control 50 minutes later. It has now emerged that the airplane's Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (Acars) system was deliberately turned off, yet the Boeing 777 plane still continued to send out "pings" to Inmarsat's satellite for seven hours after it lost contact. The pings are small bursts of data which are sent out by the satellite network to the plane every hour to check if it is still on the network, and according to Inmarsat, Flight MH370 sent out seven hourly pings in response to the network's request. "When the plane was still missing on Sunday (the day after it disappeared), our engineers looked at the network data and realised that the plane had been sending signals," Inmarsat Senior Vice President Chris McLaughlin told IBTimes UK. "We couldn't say what direction it had gone in, but the plane wasn't standing still because the signals were getting longer, i.e. further in distance from our satellite." Data transmissions not mandated The planned search area for MH370 debris in the southern Indian OceanReuters The hunt for the missing plane has been going on for the last 12 days and 26 countries have joined in to search. The latest lead pointed to two large objects floating in the southern Indian ocean, but nine hours of searching found only a freighter and two schools of dolphins. Critics of the aerospace industry are now calling out its "outdated" accident investigation process and asking for data from the black box to be streamed in-flight to the cloud, which could be expensive, but McLaughlin says that the plane could have been found by now if the communications box buried in the plane's avionics had been configured to send out more frequent reports. "What we have at the moment would have been fine if the airlines had been mandated to provide data on all their flights. The only area where data is mandated is on the transatlantic route, which is so busy that everyone needs to know where all the other planes are," he said. "We may never know what happened to the plane because the cockpit is not mandated to be monitored in other areas, and we urge regulators to look into this." The Inmarsat Classic Aero is installed in 90% of the world's commercial jets, and it is this little box which sent out the pings of information. The box has been in use "for decades" and sends information to the Inmarsat-3 and Inmarsat-4 satellites stationed in the geosynchronous belt 22,300 miles above Earth. Only costs $10 "You really do need to know the height, distance, direction and a record of what has been going on the flight deck in a regular burst every 15 to 30 minutes," said McLaughlin. "If the box had been configured to send out these bursts, we would have located the plane by now." Read More: Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: Black Box Data 'Should be Uploaded to the Cloud' Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: Only Dolphins and Freighter Found as Debris Search Proves Fruitless Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: Australian Planes Search Indian Ocean for Debris Spotted by Satellite Malaysia Airlines MH370: Fox News Host Refers to Noah's Ark in Search for Missing Plane Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370: The Agony and Anger of Families Desperate for News Configuring the box is up to each individual airline operator but receiving data from a five to seven hour flight would only cost $10 (£6) per flight. Air France Flight 447 crashed into the Atlantic Ocean in 2009 but within five days, major wreckage had been removed by the Brazilian Navy, because Air France had configured their Classic Aero box to send back information every four minutes. The black box, however, took another two years and €32m to retrieve from the ocean floor. An upgrade to Classic Aero is currently going through testing, called SwiftBroadband. The new product will give 512Kbps of broadband to flights, which would be enough to send text messages, make phone calls, and crucially, to stream information into the cloud. "When it takes two years to find a black box, you're looking for a needle in a haystack, and technology has moved on now. You need both the ability to burst/stream information off the plane in real-time, and you need a black box in case of a [disaster] so we can find out what happened," McLaughlin stressed. "Streaming information about the flight into the cloud would work with 512Kbps as you're talking about small bits of text-based data, no graphics, no video, just kilobits, not megabits." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pap Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 (edited) I havn't tried to bully anyone, just disagreed with his theory. Nothing wrong with that. Despite his legendary status for whatever he did I am still not convinced it's a big cover up. Happy to be proved wrong though. You did more than disagree with his theory. You attempted to demean his points through taking the p!ss and implying that he was some kind of attention seeker. I also doubt you would be very happy to proved wrong. Thankfully, the burden of proof for an arsehole talking out of his arse is a lot lower. That's essentially what your little jabs at posters is all about, isn't it? Trying to insinuate that they're performing ass-to-mouth ventriloquism? As for you not being "convinced", you realise that's just like, your opinion, man? How much do you reckon that's worth right now? Edited 22 March, 2014 by pap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ART Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 The anger and frustration of the Chinese government towards the Malaysian and other local governments for 'looking in the wrong place' in the first couple of days of the search spoke volumes to me. It was obvious that they knew something. Some of the idiots on this forum now owe Captain Moody an apology in my opinion. Let's see if they have the balls to step up. It was China's satellite images on the 2nd day after the disappearance that sent everyone in the wrong direction. The suspected floating wreckage turned out to be logs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derry Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 Is it possible to infer from the way in which the aircraft was flown whether it was being flown manually or on autopilot? The route change would have no relevance. The autopilot would almost certainly be engaged and provided the lateral navigation mode L Nav was engaged the entered route would be followed. If the aircraft flight path was erratic the autopilot would almost certainly be disengaged. The max altitude of 43500 was allegedly exceeded up to 45000. I don't think an aircraft with 227 pax plus freight and 7 hours fuel could fly at 43000 let alone 45000 without the wing stalling. Maybe empty but not with that load. The autopilot probably couldn't cope there. Unless the Flight Data Recorder is recovered we'll never know. The voice recorder will be useless unless stopped close to the turn as only the last thirty minutes is recorded, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 You did more than disagree with his theory. You attempted to demean his points through taking the p!ss and implying that he was some kind of attention seeker. I also doubt you would be very happy to proved wrong. Thankfully, the burden of proof for an arsehole talking out of his arse is a lot lower. That's essentially what your little jabs at posters is all about, isn't it? Trying to insinuate that they're performing ass-to-mouth ventriloquism? As for you not being "convinced", you realise that's just like, your opinion, man? How much do you reckon that's worth right now? I was taking the p!ss in response to Weston claiming to be ITK about one of the biggest, as yet, unsolved mysteries of our time. I never once aimed it towards your hero guy. The point I was trying to make was that I have read untold views from pilots over the last week to know that, thought they are best placed to have an opinion, you shouldn't necessarily take what they say as gospel. Blimey, I posted one such theory earlier on in this thread as was immediately told it was nonsense. As for what my opinion is worth, obviously very little. But I think after the Rigby episode you are probably not the best judge. Crisis actors weren't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 The route change would have no relevance. The autopilot would almost certainly be engaged and provided the lateral navigation mode L Nav was engaged the entered route would be followed. If the aircraft flight path was erratic the autopilot would almost certainly be disengaged. The max altitude of 43500 was allegedly exceeded up to 45000. I don't think an aircraft with 227 pax plus freight and 7 hours fuel could fly at 43000 let alone 45000 without the wing stalling. Maybe empty but not with that load. The autopilot probably couldn't cope there. Unless the Flight Data Recorder is recovered we'll never know. The voice recorder will be useless unless stopped close to the turn as only the last thirty minutes is recorded, The altitude readings were from the radar which is acknowledged to be less accurate at longer ranges. It all depends on the quality of the kit but whereas you can get range reasonably accurately you're relying on an accurate measure of the dish elevation, then there's curvature of the earth and the rest. From what I saw they could see that the altitude fluctuated but perhaps not as extremely as was indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derry Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 The altitude readings were from the radar which is acknowledged to be less accurate at longer ranges. It all depends on the quality of the kit but whereas you can get range reasonably accurately you're relying on an accurate measure of the dish elevation, then there's curvature of the earth and the rest. From what I saw they could see that the altitude fluctuated but perhaps not as extremely as was indicated. I don't have much faith in the local military especially in the middle of the night. If the military had an unidentified target not talking, fighters should have been scrambled. I would hazard a guess that the radar was on but the operator had his head down and after the aircraft went missing somebody checked the radar recording. Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pap Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 I was taking the p!ss in response to Weston claiming to be ITK about one of the biggest, as yet, unsolved mysteries of our time. I never once aimed it towards your hero guy. The Chinese are going to be right f*cked off when they find out West Stand knew how to find their plane all along. This could get interesting. Didn't seem that way at the time. The point I was trying to make was that I have read untold views from pilots over the last week to know that, thought they are best placed to have an opinion, you shouldn't necessarily take what they say as gospel. Blimey, I posted one such theory earlier on in this thread as was immediately told it was nonsense. I don't think anyone is taking any theory as gospel. The main difference between your contribution and theirs is that no-one else gets as offended or mocking in their tone at you having different ideas in yours. I wouldn't mind, but you know f**k all on the subject save what you've read on the Internet, you're tying it all together with your layman context, and take the hump when people decry your regurgitated arguments. As for what my opinion is worth, obviously very little. On this you and I agree. But I think after the Rigby episode you are probably not the best judge. Crisis actors weren't they? It's funny. You were disgusted when I wanted to discuss the Woolwich incident, to the point where you left the thread after Dave commanded you to. It's odd that you now view the incident as no more than chaff to deploy when you are wrong, which is often. Yeah, yeah. The challenge remains open. Why not use your brilliance (as demonstrated on this thread) to go over to David Icke's forum and take some names? I'll tell you why; it's because you've got no courage and no real convictions about anything anyway. Most of your input is "I doubt that" or "I'm not convinced that" or when that doesn't work, plain insults. You're obviously interested in conspiracies; you're here to shout down every one of them. The time for you to graduate couldn't be better, what with the auto-f**king you've done today and all that. See you over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitey Grandad Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 I don't have much faith in the local military especially in the middle of the night. If the military had an unidentified target not talking, fighters should have been scrambled. I would hazard a guess that the radar was on but the operator had his head down and after the aircraft went missing somebody checked the radar recording. Just a thought. I think you're right. I get the impression that it was only after checking the recordings that they found anything, and that was only after a couple of days because they hadn't found anything in the sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derry Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 Just a thought, presumably the 0107 ACARS upload indicated the second waypoint was eg Langkawi 12 minutes before the transponder went off at 0119. If one of the pilots as a check had entered Langkawi to check track/distance/time for whatever reason at the time of the upload then joined up the original route after the upload the turn may not have been pre programmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pap Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 Boiling it down to outcomes, it comes down to three for me. Crashed, shot down or landed. I list them exhaustively (shot down is there for that reason), and in no particular order. If you had a gut feel on one of those three, which would it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Kraken Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 Boiling it down to outcomes, it comes down to three for me. Crashed, shot down or landed. I list them exhaustively (shot down is there for that reason), and in no particular order. If you had a gut feel on one of those three, which would it be? Mine is shot down. Don't know why, just an irrational thought I had close to when it happened that doesn't seem to have gone away. Potentially China involved somewhere in it all. Don't ask me to justify it though, I'm fully aware it's just a hatstand personal theory based on nothing but supposition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derry Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 I think you're right. I get the impression that it was only after checking the recordings that they found anything, and that was only after a couple of days because they hadn't found anything in the sea. I get the feeling the truth is not the primary concern. Initially the search was in the SCS. Then surprise, surprise it's switched to the Malacca Strait after a last radar fix. (Who pointed the Malaysians in that direction) Then the Andamans. The Inmarsat arcs. The US points the Australians W of Perth with Satellite photo on 16th, the Chinese photo of same on 17th announced today. It would be fair to assume that the a/c has crashed with no survivors. In that case if any agency or agencies know that, there is no humanitarian reasons to compromise their sources/abilities. So data drip fed to move towards a solution. Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derry Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 Mine is shot down. Don't know why, just an irrational thought I had close to when it happened that doesn't seem to have gone away. Potentially China involved somewhere in it all. Don't ask me to justify it though, I'm fully aware it's just a hatstand personal theory based on nothing but supposition. It wouldn't have been shot down if the West Australian search area is valid. If the area is correct it probably ran out of fuel and crashed. If so was anyone on board even alive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Kraken Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 It wouldn't have been shot down if the West Australian search area is valid. If the area is correct it probably ran out of fuel and crashed. If so was anyone on board even alive? Well my other "theory" was that it was a Payne Stewart type incident. As you can probably tell, this really isn't my field of expertise in any way whatsoever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Chalet Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 I am!! Just read up on what you did. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 I get the feeling the truth is not the primary concern. Initially the search was in the SCS. Then surprise, surprise it's switched to the Malacca Strait after a last radar fix. (Who pointed the Malaysians in that direction) Then the Andamans. The Inmarsat arcs. The US points the Australians W of Perth with Satellite photo on 16th, the Chinese photo of same on 17th announced today. It would be fair to assume that the a/c has crashed with no survivors. In that case if any agency or agencies know that, there is no humanitarian reasons to compromise their sources/abilities. So data drip fed to move towards a solution. Just a thought. No humanitarian reason regarding those on board but surely some compassion is owed to the bereaved families (if that turns out to be the case). I'm sure confidential info could be leaked by attributing it to reports received from some "untraceable" fishing boat or such like. I've been following this with interest and still none the wiser, reckon I've changed my favourite theory almost daily. The possible wreckage SW of Perth means I now favour the Payne Stewart theory, although no idea on why the original change of course. Sent from my Hudl HT7S3 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derry Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 Well my other "theory" was that it was a Payne Stewart type incident. As you can probably tell, this really isn't my field of expertise in any way whatsoever! Which is my last sentence. However based on how often we practiced depressurisations and emergency descents I don't understand how the pilots could get it wrong. Unless one of them disabled the oxygen. As for the PS a/c, my pal flew on it a couple of weeks before, the oxy masks were never pointed out and sounded really sloppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derry Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 No humanitarian reason regarding those on board but surely some compassion is owed to the bereaved families (if that turns out to be the case). I'm sure confidential info could be leaked by attributing it to reports received from some "untraceable" fishing boat or such like. I've been following this with interest and still none the wiser, reckon I've changed my favourite theory almost daily. The possible wreckage SW of Perth means I now favour the Payne Stewart theory, although no idea on why the original change of course. Sent from my Hudl HT7S3 using Tapatalk The heading change towards Langkawi is understandable but somebody then had to make another heading change off NW Malaysia to take it towards the WA search area. That for me is the mystery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gemmel Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 Just read up on what you did. Just wow. Yeah I did too...... And the best bit.... He must be a Saints fan :) : ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smirking_Saint Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 Mine is shot down. Don't know why, just an irrational thought I had close to when it happened that doesn't seem to have gone away. Potentially China involved somewhere in it all. Don't ask me to justify it though, I'm fully aware it's just a hatstand personal theory based on nothing but supposition. This is my thoughts too, dont know why, but I just have a feel for it. Potentially it was comandered for a terrorist act and a government acted to stop it ? Im certainly no expert in aviation, but I just dont get how you lose a plane this day and age Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derry Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 Just read up on what you did. Just wow. Because of the above, you may well find he won't bother posting again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 At first I thought it was an attempted 9/11 incident that was shot down but the technical data and the satellite info didn't fit. Then when the pilots personal issues were reported I thought suicide was most likely but if it turns out the plane flew all the way down to the Southern Indian Ocean that theory looks a bit unlikely. I'm leaning more now to a explosion/incident that knocked out the comms and damaged the cockpit, the pilots or someone on board tried to turn it around but everyone on board died/loss consciousness and it ended off just flying until the fuel ran out. This theory would obviously falls flat if it is certain the comms were deliberately switched off. The whole thing is ****ing weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
um pahars Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 Yeah I did too...... And the best bit.... He must be a Saints fan :) : ) Got me too. Have flown that flight a few times and was aware of the original story, but amazed that the main man turns up on this forum!!!! hats off to the Badgers Arse man, a real hero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derry Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 At first I thought it was an attempted 9/11 incident that was shot down but the technical data and the satellite info didn't fit. Then when the pilots personal issues were reported I thought suicide was most likely but if it turns out the plane flew all the way down to the Southern Indian Ocean that theory looks a bit unlikely. I'm leaning more now to a explosion/incident that knocked out the comms and damaged the cockpit, the pilots or someone on board tried to turn it around but everyone on board died/loss consciousness and it ended off just flying until the fuel ran out. This theory would obviously falls flat if it is certain the comms were deliberately switched off. The whole thing is ****ing weird. Somewhere I've seen something about Al Quaeda manufactured shoe bombs to be used to blow open the flight deck door. That doesn't add up because of the heading change over an hour later. Nothing seems to make sense. Especially as Malaysia is a Muslim country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Chalet Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 (edited) Because of the above, you may well find he won't bother posting again Would be a real shame if he didn't. My previous experience of pilots has always been that they are gently tolerant of the enthusiastic amateur, so here's hoping. Edited 22 March, 2014 by St Chalet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aintforever Posted 22 March, 2014 Share Posted 22 March, 2014 Somewhere I've seen something about Al Quaeda manufactured shoe bombs to be used to blow open the flight deck door. That doesn't add up because of the heading change over an hour later. Nothing seems to make sense. Especially as Malaysia is a Muslim country. If a bomb/explosion took out the comms and killed or impaired the pilots whilst damaged the cockpit couldn't that explain the erratic flying? If a passenger or flight attendant is trying to fly a damaged plane without any help it's probably gonna end up with some weird results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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