Relegation - The Run In...

[Window Cleaner]

Swansea will beat Stoke, may even get a result against Bompey (but probably not). So we need to go for two wins to really stand a chance. Can’t see us getting more than a point today and probably nothing. I still think there’s more chance of us going down than not.

 

Our best chance now of not getting relegated is still us getting at least 3 points and Huddersfield getting nothing at all. Still all a bit iffy though because Swansea will beat Stoke.

[SaintMB]

We've got to rely on ourselves to get out of this mess. A win or a point today would be a good return. A win against Swansea is essential.

[Dark Munster]

We've got to rely on ourselves to get out of this mess. A win or a point today would be a good return. A win against Swansea is essential.

Well we got one, but it feels like a loss doesn't it?

[SaintTex]

Well we got one, but it feels like a loss doesn't it?

What's nice is that our fate is really in our hands.

 

win or draw against Everton, a win against Swansea was going to have to occur to feel safe.

 

I saw these weekend results with Brighton and West Brom. I don't buy that Huddersfield is going to stay on 35 points.

[Dark Munster]

What's nice is that our fate is really in our hands.

 

win or draw against Everton, a win against Swansea was going to have to occur to feel safe.

 

I saw these weekend results with Brighton and West Brom. I don't buy that Huddersfield is going to stay on 35 points.

Yes, a win against Swansea would mean today's point was a good one. We'd be more or less safe.

 

But a win today and a draw against Swansea would have meant that we would have had several avenues of escape (assuming no big goal difference swings): we'd be safe with any of

Huddersfield failing to get at least 2 points against Chelsea, City and Arsenal (very likely),

or Swansea not beating Stoke (less likely but not impossible),

or us getting a point against City (less likely but not impossible).

 

But now if we only draw against Swansea we'll need to match or better their result against Stoke with ours against City, or get a draw against City and hope Huddersfield lose their last three. Not likely.

[terraloon]

Yes, a win against Swansea would mean today's point was a good one. We'd be more or less safe.

 

But a win today and a draw against Swansea would have meant that we would have had several avenues of escape (assuming no big goal difference swings): we'd be safe with any of

Huddersfield failing to get at least 2 points against Chelsea, City and Arsenal (very likely),

or Swansea not beating Stoke (less likely but not impossible),

or us getting a point against City (less likely but not impossible).

 

But now if we only draw against Swansea we'll need to match or better their result against Stoke with ours against City, or get a draw against City and hope Huddersfield lose their last three. Not likely.

 

Lots of ifs and all that but if Chelsea win today they will still have to go full throttle against Huddersfield if they draw or lose then their position is all but guaranteed chances and with thenWC fast approaching I suspect that they will rest several and play some of their youngsters as well as several of their squad players in their last two games one of which of course is against Huddersfield

In a way it’s the same for Arsenal in that if they win or draw today then the chances are that AW will play a vastly understrength team at Huddersfield

You would like to think it was going to be the same next Sunday against City but as we know their squad has greater depth than anyone else.

Having said all that I really haven’t a clue for at this stage everything is out the window.

[Matthew Le God]

In a way it’s the same for Arsenal in that if they win or draw today then the chances are that AW will play a vastly understrength team at Huddersfield

 

I think it is very unlikely Arsene Wenger will do anything other than pick his best team in his last ever game at Arsenal and try to go out with a win.

 

Why do you think in his last game he'd play a 'vastly understrength team at Huddersfield'?

[terraloon]

I think it is very unlikely Arsene Wenger will do anything other than pick his best team in his last ever game at Arsenal and try to go out with a win.

 

Why do you think in his last game he'd play a 'vastly understrength team at Huddersfield'?

 

Several reasons.

As things stand their 2018/19 season starts on either 12 July or 26 July when they will be entering the qualifying stages of the EL. All players are due a set number of weeks off those that are going to the WC could well be involved in that competition till several days after the club enters the EL.

Ok I know it’s not going to be his problem going forward but I suspect he genuinely cares about their club and I suspect he will want to showcase the youngsters who he will probably see now as part of his legacy.

[beatlesaint]

Several reasons.

As things stand their 2018/19 season starts on either 12 July or 26 July when they will be entering the qualifying stages of the EL. All players are due a set number of weeks off those that are going to the WC could well be involved in that competition till several days after the club enters the EL.

Ok I know it’s not going to be his problem going forward but I suspect he genuinely cares about their club and I suspect he will want to showcase the youngsters who he will probably see now as part of his legacy.

 

No, he will respect the Premier League and play his best available team. He may not in Cup matches but he has never compromised the integrity of the league.

[Pamplemousse]

Several reasons.

As things stand their 2018/19 season starts on either 12 July or 26 July when they will be entering the qualifying stages of the EL. All players are due a set number of weeks off those that are going to the WC could well be involved in that competition till several days after the club enters the EL.

Ok I know it’s not going to be his problem going forward but I suspect he genuinely cares about their club and I suspect he will want to showcase the youngsters who he will probably see now as part of his legacy.

 

Arsenal will enter at the group stages if they finish 6th. Burnley will be the ones entering the July qualifying rounds.

[Saint_Tony]

Don't think Huddersfield really matter as we are unlikely to get a result against City. 3 points on Tuesday is a must or we are down. Hopefully Swansea may set up for a draw. Their poor form seems to have gone under the radar as they have a charismatic manager.

 

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[striker]

On the positive side, our form is actually much better with Hughes. We've now gotten 5 points in the last 3, two of which were away from home. If we beat Swansea it will be 8 pts in 4. We waited way too long to replace MP.

[Super_Uwe]

Just about got my head around yesterday's late, late equaliser!

 

Actually very little has changed, we still need to get something at Swansea which has been pencilled in as the key game for quite a while now. A win would pretty much guarantee safety thanks to our GD, a draw would leave us needing to match or better Swansea's result on the last day to stay up (regardless of what Huddersfield get up to).

 

Quite incredibly, even a defeat against Swansea wouldn't send us down, although we would have to beat City on the last day and hope Swansea and Huddersfield both slip up.

 

If I am being perfectly honest, I would happily have taken this scenario after the Chelsea game. Game on!

[Matthew Le God]

Don't think Huddersfield really matter as we are unlikely to get a result against City.

 

Why? It doesn't need Saints getting a point or more vs Man City for Huddersfield to go down.

 

If the following happens and it isn't a far fetched set of results...

 

Saints beat Swansea

Chelsea beat Huddersfield

Arsenal beat Huddersfield

Swansea beat Stoke

Saints lose to Man City

 

...then Saints & Swansea are safe and Huddersfield go down if the GD situation remains similar

Edited 6 May, 2018 by Matthew Le God

[Lord Duckhunter]

Why? It doesn't need Saints getting a point or more vs Man City for Huddersfield to go down.

 

If the following happens and it isn't a far fetched set of results...

 

Saints beat Swansea

Chelsea beat Huddersfield

Arsenal beat Huddersfield

Swansea beat Stoke

Saints lose to Man City

 

...then Saints & Swansea are safe and Huddersfield go down if the GD situation remains similar

 

It’s funny, my Huddersfield supporting mate reckons this is exactly what’s going to happen. He’s convinced they still need another point.

 

 

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[Pamplemousse]

Why? It doesn't need Saints getting a point or more vs Man City for Huddersfield to go down.

 

If the following happens and it isn't a far fetched set of results...

 

Saints beat Swansea

Chelsea beat Huddersfield

Arsenal beat Huddersfield

Swansea beat Stoke

Saints lose to Man City

 

...then Saints & Swansea are safe and Huddersfield go down if the GD situation remains similar

 

Exactly this. They are not out of the woods yet.

[The9]

Several reasons.

As things stand their 2018/19 season starts on either 12 July or 26 July when they will be entering the qualifying stages of the EL. All players are due a set number of weeks off those that are going to the WC could well be involved in that competition till several days after the club enters the EL.

Ok I know it’s not going to be his problem going forward but I suspect he genuinely cares about their club and I suspect he will want to showcase the youngsters who he will probably see now as part of his legacy.

 

Firstly, as of Sunday at 6pm they have guaranteed qualification for the Europa League group stages which begin on 20 September, 6 weeks after the season does. So that's most of your argument out of the window immediately.

 

He might pick a weaker side away to Leicester on Wednesday because they're playing 3 games in a week and neither club can basically change position, but he'll still stick a decent enough team out against Huddersfield for his final match, especially as no-one remembers the penultimate one - they'll remember beating Burnley 5-0 and whatever happens at Huddersfield.

 

Today's team should be a pretty good pointer - rested Ozil, Mustafi, Monreal (and Koscielny got injured) after Europe, but first choice everywhere else.

 

Cech;

Bellerin, Koscielny (injured - Chambers), Mavroponos, Kolasinac;

Iwobi, Xhaka, Wilshere;

Mkhitarian, Lacazette, Aubameyang.

 

That's still a pretty strong team considering they played a European semi-final 3 days before.

 

I don't think he'll give a monkeys about showing off the youth team, though he might have to pick the Greek kid again now Koscielny is injured.

[The9]

It’s funny, my Huddersfield supporting mate reckons this is exactly what’s going to happen. He’s convinced they still need another point.

 

They basically need a point unless we draw with Swansea, and even then there's a chance two from us, Swansea and West Brom will win on the last day and overtake them.

 

Also if we draw with Swansea then West Brom are still able to escape, if one of us wins that match and joins Huddersfield on 36 WBA are gone and there's only one relegation place to avoid. Though Huddersfield do have the benefit of playing their match the day after, albeit away to Chelsea.

[The9]

Just about got my head around yesterday's late, late equaliser!

 

Actually very little has changed, we still need to get something at Swansea which has been pencilled in as the key game for quite a while now. A win would pretty much guarantee safety thanks to our GD, a draw would leave us needing to match or better Swansea's result on the last day to stay up (regardless of what Huddersfield get up to).

 

Quite incredibly, even a defeat against Swansea wouldn't send us down, although we would have to beat City on the last day and hope Swansea and Huddersfield both slip up.

 

If I am being perfectly honest, I would happily have taken this scenario after the Chelsea game. Game on!

 

I have completely written off the Man City match in my considerations, and will continue to do so unless Tuesday and Wednesday's results mean it is our only method of safety (in which case I'll look to Huddersfield's point earlier for hope).

[Lord Duckhunter]

The day we chucked a 2 goal lead away to Chelsea, Huddersfield scored a last minute winner at Watford, Swansea had drawn with Everton and were 5 points above us. I haven’t read back through this thread, but I bet every single person would have taken going into last day out of the bottom 3. Draw tomorrow and we will be, so I hope Hughes is pragmatic and not go all Merrington on us. I’d put it as a “mustn’t lose” as opposed to a must win.

 

Twice in my lifetime we’ve been relegated from top flight and both times it was out of our hands. My personal preferences last day are

1. In own hands

2. Home

3. Playing side with nothing to play for.

 

All 3 favour us. However there’s a ****ing big hole in my theory, we’re playing a great side. That said, we’ve beaten great sides before, we’ve battered Liverpool when they were a great side, we’ve battered Utd when they were a great side, beaten really good Chelsea sides. Hell even Wigan beat City when the quadruple was still on. I doubt their players give a shiny about 100 points, not with a World Cup weeks away ( they can reach that milestone next season)

 

The point I’m trying to make is, don’t write us off even if we draw ( a defeat and we’re gone imo). Going into Sunday in the bottom 3 having not won since March 3rd could do funny things to Swansea. WBA will need to batter a decent Palace side, and then there’s the little matter of a full house at St Mary’s and city on the beach.

 

 

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[Pamplemousse]

It's that sort of negative approach that has got us into this mess, copied straight out of the Pellegrino handbook, a draw is as good as a win...

[OttawaSaint]

It's that sort of negative approach that has got us into this mess, copied straight out of the Pellegrino handbook, a draw is as good as a win...

 

Exactly, we had the same comments last time. These are pros, regardless of whether they are on the beach or not, they can and will very likely tonk us. Yes miracles can happen but when we have failed to beat the likes of Huddy, Brighton etc. We ain’t beating City.

[Lord Duckhunter]

It's that sort of negative approach that has got us into this mess, copied straight out of the Pellegrino handbook, a draw is as good as a win...

 

Where have I said a draw is as good as a win, or advised a negative approach. All I've called for is a pragmatic approach, the approach that has gained us 5 points over the past 3 games, 5 points more than Swansea, by the way. If Hughes follows the Merringtons on here and goes all out for a win, throwing caution to the wind in a must win at all costs mentality, we'll get turned over. We're not good enough or mentally strong enough to win an expansive open game. Our centre halves and full backs are hopeless when exposed and not protected by a solid midfield base. There's a reason we've looked better lately and it's not because we're suddenly playing like we did under Poch or Koeman.

 

If it pans out like the Leicester game, it won't be the end . If we get beat, it will be. I hope and expect Hughes to play a normal game for an hour, then see where the land lies. If we're up, great, if it's level but their on top and looking dangerous (as Leicester we're) then we may have to take the point and move on. If we're losing, that's the time for the kitchen sink.

 

 

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[Gingeletiss]

Where have I said a draw is as good as a win, or advised a negative approach. All I've called for is a pragmatic approach, the approach that has gained us 5 points over the past 3 games, 5 points more than Swansea, by the way. If Hughes follows the Merringtons on here and goes all out for a win, throwing caution to the wind in a must win at all costs mentality, we'll get turned over. We're not good enough or mentally strong enough to win an expansive open game. Our centre halves and full backs are hopeless when exposed and not protected by a solid midfield base. There's a reason we've looked better lately and it's not because we're suddenly playing like we did under Poch or Koeman.

 

If it pans out like the Leicester game, it won't be the end . If we get beat, it will be. I hope and expect Hughes to play a normal game for an hour, then see where the land lies. If we're up, great, if it's level but their on top and looking dangerous (as Leicester we're) then we may have to take the point and move on. If we're losing, that's the time for the kitchen sink.

 

 

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*Like*

[doddisalegend]

Where have I said a draw is as good as a win, or advised a negative approach. All I've called for is a pragmatic approach, the approach that has gained us 5 points over the past 3 games, 5 points more than Swansea, by the way. If Hughes follows the Merringtons on here and goes all out for a win, throwing caution to the wind in a must win at all costs mentality, we'll get turned over. We're not good enough or mentally strong enough to win an expansive open game. Our centre halves and full backs are hopeless when exposed and not protected by a solid midfield base. There's a reason we've looked better lately and it's not because we're suddenly playing like we did under Poch or Koeman.

 

If it pans out like the Leicester game, it won't be the end . If we get beat, it will be. I hope and expect Hughes to play a normal game for an hour, then see where the land lies. If we're up, great, if it's level but their on top and looking dangerous (as Leicester we're) then we may have to take the point and move on. If we're losing, that's the time for the kitchen sink.

 

 

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Its amazing given the sheer amount of evidence over the last two seasons that

 

a) our attacking players are generally **** poor

 

b) our defence is very fragile

 

that people are still expecting us to play full throttle attacking football. It only took Hughes a couple of games to work this out and so he has given us a chance of staying up by (ironically) going pretty negative and defensive and its worked.

[Dark Munster]

Its amazing given the sheer amount of evidence over the last two seasons that

 

a) our attacking players are generally **** poor

 

b) our defence is very fragile

 

that people are still expecting us to play full throttle attacking football. It only took Hughes a couple of games to work this out and so he has given us a chance of staying up by (ironically) going pretty negative and defensive and its worked.

Yes, the West Ham debacle being the perfect example.

[ooh it's a corner]

Just going to give this gem from the 1st May, a little bump....

 

we're going to get a point at Everton and Swansea will lose to Bournemouth, Stoke lose to Palace.

 

We will beat Swansea and that will be that, barring a very large swing in goal difference.

 

We will enjoy the Man City game with the sun on our faces.

 

I will enjoy it even more if us and Stoke are 2-0 up inside the first ten minutes.

[Pamplemousse]

Hopefully Huddersfield will lose tonight and they’ll still be in the mix

[MongoNeil]

Is anyone else worried that Stoke will capitulate against Swansea in order to get Hughes relegated? Everyone talking about us not shipping goals against Man City, I'm more worried about the Stoke game ?

[Super_Uwe]

Well, there we go. Turns out the magic number for guaranteed safety this season is 37 points! Well done to those who guessed right

[Window Cleaner]

Is anyone else worried that Stoke will capitulate against Swansea in order to get Hughes relegated? Everyone talking about us not shipping goals against Man City, I'm more worried about the Stoke game 

 

But they have no control over whether Hughes gets relegated or not so it really isn't worth any consideration.

Time has come to put a stop to the dripping on about relegation and the nervous nellying. We have done what was needed, be content and proud.

[Matthew Le God]

Well, there we go. Turns out the magic number for guaranteed safety this season is 37 points! Well done to those who guessed right

 

Why 37 points?

 

- If Swansea lose to Stoke it would be possible to stay up on 33 points

- If Swansea draw with Stoke it would be possible to stay up on 34 points

- If Swansea beat Stoke it would be possible to stay up on 36 points

[jawillwill]

Why 37 points?

 

- If Swansea lose to Stoke it would be possible to stay up on 33 points

- If Swansea draw with Stoke it would be possible to stay up on 34 points

- If Swansea beat Stoke it would be possible to stay up on 36 points

 

37 is higher than all of those numbers so would guarantee safety. HTH.

[Matthew Le God]

37 is higher than all of those numbers so would guarantee safety. HTH.

 

He called it the magic number. What is magic about it if a lower number can also equal safety?

[Super_Uwe]

Why 37 points?

 

- If Swansea lose to Stoke it would be possible to stay up on 33 points

- If Swansea draw with Stoke it would be possible to stay up on 34 points

- If Swansea beat Stoke it would be possible to stay up on 36 points

 

I was just thinking of the amount you need to stay up regardless of other results. Coming into the final game of the season, Saints and Huddersfield only need a point to guarantee safety. Of course we should now be fine with 36 points with our GD, Huddersfield less so but they have got two games to get that magical point.

[S-Clarke]

Why 37 points?

 

- If Swansea lose to Stoke it would be possible to stay up on 33 points

- If Swansea draw with Stoke it would be possible to stay up on 34 points

- If Swansea beat Stoke it would be possible to stay up on 36 points

 

Ffs.

 

Everyone could see what he meant.

[jawillwill]

He called it the magic number. What is magic about it if a lower number can also equal safety?

 

In a traditional league structure, the higher the number of points you have is usually better. The team with the most points often wins the league.

37, in that respect, is more magical than 34.

HTH.

[OttawaSaint]

Why 37 points?

 

- If Swansea lose to Stoke it would be possible to stay up on 33 points

- If Swansea draw with Stoke it would be possible to stay up on 34 points

- If Swansea beat Stoke it would be possible to stay up on 36 points

 

But we have 36 right now. Magic number is usually used in North American sports for teams chasing a playoff spot. Simply put it means number of points needed to guarantee a place regardless of what other teams do, it's not intended to give all possible permutations after the event Since we are on 36, 1pt is enough. N Americans understand that if the chasing team loses then that will do it too, they don't care about what could have been after the fact.

 

Usually the sportscasters use it on the morning highlights show. "37 is the magic number for safety" sounds a lot snappier than, "depending on results between this team and that and this goal difference and that then the magic number may have been 33, 34, 36 or...".

Edited 9 May, 2018 by OttawaSaint

[knellster]

So I guess that tonight we want:

Chelsea to beat Huddersfield so that Swansea's best chance of safety is winning against Stoke and Huddersfield losing against Arsenal. They are then more likely to try to hold on to a 1-0 or 2-0 lead rather than go all out for goals to overhaul us.

Brighton to take at least a point off Man City so they can't get the 100 points. A couple of injuries would be good too. Nothing serious, but enough to make some of their players who expect to be in Russia to be a little bit wary.

Not too much to ask is it?

[OttawaSaint]

So I guess that tonight we want:

Chelsea to beat Huddersfield so that Swansea's best chance of safety is winning against Stoke and Huddersfield losing against Arsenal. They are then more likely to try to hold on to a 1-0 or 2-0 lead rather than go all out for goals to overhaul us.

Brighton to take at least a point off Man City so they can't get the 100 points. A couple of injuries would be good too. Nothing serious, but enough to make some of their players who expect to be in Russia to be a little bit wary.

Not too much to ask is it?

 

We're fine!

 

If it was the other way around and you knew we had to hump Stoke etc. would you be confident of staying up?

[Lord Duckhunter]

Relax, 9 goal swings don’t happen in this league, it’s more like 10 anyway because of goals scored.

 

Any lingering doubt will be taken away by Chelsea winning tonight. The tiny once in a lifetime chance of a 10 goal swing, is more likely if that’s all they’re aiming for and their only chance of staying up. If they have to beat Stoke to catch Huddersfield, they’ll play normally until it’s too late to chase another 4 or 5 goals.

 

Enjoy the day.

 

 

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[Super_Uwe]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43971368

 

Like I said above, 37 points is the magic number for guaranteed safety

[Super_Uwe]

Relax, 9 goal swings don’t happen in this league, it’s more like 10 anyway because of goals scored.

 

Any lingering doubt will be taken away by Chelsea winning tonight. The tiny once in a lifetime chance of a 10 goal swing, is more likely if that’s all they’re aiming for and their only chance of staying up. If they have to beat Stoke to catch Huddersfield, they’ll play normally until it’s too late to chase another 4 or 5 goals.

 

Enjoy the day.

 

 

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To be fair, you are right. I'd not realised how strong our goals for was in comparison to Swansea. I'm going on like I expect Swansea to turn it around aren't I?!

[Super_Uwe]

Only just noticed this morning that Swansea lost all of their last 5 league games. In fact they only picked up 3 points from their last 9 league games.

 

It feels harsh on Saints to say they were lucky, because I do genuinely believe they did all they could to turn things around and get out of trouble. But it has to be said that we were SO lucky Swansea just capitulated; of all the teams in the relegation battle, they had been the nearest "safe" team to us for quite a while.

[Dalek2003]

Only just noticed this morning that Swansea lost all of their last 5 league games. In fact they only picked up 3 points from their last 9 league games.

 

It feels harsh on Saints to say they were lucky, because I do genuinely believe they did all they could to turn things around and get out of trouble. But it has to be said that we were SO lucky Swansea just capitulated; of all the teams in the relegation battle, they had been the nearest "safe" team to us for quite a while.

 

We were very lucky. Is 36 points the lowest for a surviving 17th placed position?

[EkonOkereke]

We were very lucky. Is 36 points the lowest for a surviving 17th placed position?

 

From bbc

 

The lowest number of points to guarantee survival was 31 points in 2010, as 18th placed Burnley went down with 30 points.

The highest points total to survive would have been 43 in 2003, with 18th placed West Ham relegated with 42 points.

[Dalek2003]

From bbc

 

The lowest number of points to guarantee survival was 31 points in 2010, as 18th placed Burnley went down with 30 points.

The highest points total to survive would have been 43 in 2003, with 18th placed West Ham relegated with 42 points.

 

Interesting. Will go and look at the past tables. Imagine going down on 42 points!

[SaintTex]

We were very lucky. Is 36 points the lowest for a surviving 17th placed position?

West Brom stayed up on 36 points just a few years ago.

 

funnily enough, Gabbi's goal didn't keep us up. If we had drawn 0-0 with Swansea on Tuesday, and the results had been same this Sunday, we would have stayed up with 34 points.

[S-Clarke]

36-38 points is pretty much the norm you need to aim for if you want to stay up.

[OldNick]

Interesting. Will go and look at the past tables. Imagine going down on 42 points!

I doubt if Glasgow gets these things wrong