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whelk

By whelk,
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Referendum on Moscow to officially become territory of Wales  

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  1. 1. Referendum on Moscow to officially become territory of Wales

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cloggy saint

cloggy saint

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, whelk said:

Not heard any serious analyst even hinting that he would use a nuke as would be catastrophic.

oooh Putin’s so hard let’s not beat him too bad so he saves face. Fuck off 

I absolutely hate this he needs an ‘off ramp’ argument, No he doesn’t. Only the west being so weak has led him to where we are. Now the bully is getting beaten. We need to beat him to death and then piss on his face.

Better to piss on his face and then beat him to death.

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badgerx16

badgerx16

Posted
Posted (edited)

Alexei, Alexei, come out come out, wherever you are;

"Russia’s budget surplus for 2022 has almost evaporated after a sharp drop in energy exports during August led to a monthly deficit of as much as Rbs360bn ($5.9bn)."

https://www.ft.com/content/d9cdc51f-5fe3-4f4a-b0e8-054ef21a2a6e?shareType=nongift


   " Russian gas flows to Europe have dwindled to about one-fifth of pre-invasion deliveries. In early September it said it would keep Nord Stream 1, which runs under the Baltic Sea to Germany, shut indefinitely unless the west lifted sanctions imposed over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

The sharp deterioration of Russian state finances comes as its army is being routed in northeastern Ukraine in its biggest military setback since losing the battle for the capital Kyiv in March.

Oil and gas revenues, which make up almost half of the budget revenues received so far this year, were down 18 per cent year-on-year over the January-August period, according to the data.

The EU has also banned imports of Russian coal. An EU ban on shipped Russian crude imports is due to come into effect in December.

Non-oil and gas revenues also fell drastically, by 37 per cent year on year, in January-August, the data showed.

Russia initially showed resilience in weathering the impact of punitive measures, including a freeze on half its foreign exchange reserves.

But Russia’s state gas monopoly Gazprom said earlier this month that production fell by 15 per cent year on year in the first eight months of the year. Exports, which flow mostly to Europe, were down by more than a third.

Revenues look set to worsen following Russia’s suspension of Nord Stream 1, one of its main gas pipelines to Europe, in early September.

Russia’s economy shrunk 4.3 per cent in July 2022 compared with the same month a year earlier, according to the country’s economy ministry. Analysts at Aton, a Russian brokerage, expect the economy to contract by a further 5 per cent in 2023 because of falling energy output."

 

Edited by badgerx16
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whelk

whelk

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Posted
49 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Alexei, Alexei, come out come out, wherever you are;

"Russia’s budget surplus for 2022 has almost evaporated after a sharp drop in energy exports during August led to a monthly deficit of as much as Rbs360bn ($5.9bn)."

https://www.ft.com/content/d9cdc51f-5fe3-4f4a-b0e8-054ef21a2a6e?shareType=nongift


   " Russian gas flows to Europe have dwindled to about one-fifth of pre-invasion deliveries. In early September it said it would keep Nord Stream 1, which runs under the Baltic Sea to Germany, shut indefinitely unless the west lifted sanctions imposed over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

The sharp deterioration of Russian state finances comes as its army is being routed in northeastern Ukraine in its biggest military setback since losing the battle for the capital Kyiv in March.

Oil and gas revenues, which make up almost half of the budget revenues received so far this year, were down 18 per cent year-on-year over the January-August period, according to the data.

The EU has also banned imports of Russian coal. An EU ban on shipped Russian crude imports is due to come into effect in December.

Non-oil and gas revenues also fell drastically, by 37 per cent year on year, in January-August, the data showed.

Russia initially showed resilience in weathering the impact of punitive measures, including a freeze on half its foreign exchange reserves.

But Russia’s state gas monopoly Gazprom said earlier this month that production fell by 15 per cent year on year in the first eight months of the year. Exports, which flow mostly to Europe, were down by more than a third.

Revenues look set to worsen following Russia’s suspension of Nord Stream 1, one of its main gas pipelines to Europe, in early September.

Russia’s economy shrunk 4.3 per cent in July 2022 compared with the same month a year earlier, according to the country’s economy ministry. Analysts at Aton, a Russian brokerage, expect the economy to contract by a further 5 per cent in 2023 because of falling energy output."

 

Only weeks away from taking Norfolk

 

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buctootim

buctootim

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Colinjb said:

Seemingly, Moscow Ring Road was closed by the national guard today.

Key forces leaving Ukraine, Putin fleeing to Sochi.

Nah, everything is fine i'm sure....

Definitely increasingly feels like the wheels are coming off big time.  This could still be just a wobble though

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Lighthouse

Lighthouse

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, buctootim said:

 

"Moscow fuckers come out one at a time"

"Russian assault troops do not surrender"

"Let's see what you say about this" then throws grenade'

"WE SURRENDER"

😄

 

 

As my dear late grandma used to say, "if you can’t say anything nice to someone, chuck a frag. Grenade in there."

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Mystic Force

Mystic Force

Posted
Posted

I bet Ukraine had wished they had listened to some of our surrender suggesting members a few weeks back.....

Anyway, I think that some of those deaths might be people in different factions bumping off potential rivals in an attempt to jockey for positions in a power vacuum situation. Or people using this as opportunity to settle scores while a bit of plausible deniability is available. However most probably involve direction from the top.

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whelk

whelk

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13 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-council-faces-dissolution-after-call-putins-removal-2022-09-13/

Further indications of dissent spreading.

Still within Putin’s ability to control, for now at least, but considering that any public dissent would have been unthinkable before the invasion…

There were regular reports of anti war protests when it all began. Assume they just filled the prisons up. Analysts say structure means no real chance of overthrow from anyone below, Public protest would seem most likely as the bald cunt is going to run out of ways of spinning this

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Jimmy_D

Jimmy_D

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, whelk said:

There were regular reports of anti war protests when it all began. Assume they just filled the prisons up. Analysts say structure means no real chance of overthrow from anyone below, Public protest would seem most likely as the bald cunt is going to run out of ways of spinning this

Ah, sorry, I was specifically referring to public dissent against Putin from other politicians in office.

You’re right of course that there’s been protests by the public, even since they’ve been cracking down on it.

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Dark Munster

Dark Munster

Posted
Posted
On 12/09/2022 at 13:35, Lighthouse said:

I don’t see how and with what rationale. For a start there isn’t a literal big red button, they will need the military to authorise the launch of anything like that and their support for him is rapidly waning as they are getting humiliated in Ukraine. Secondly Putin has been trying to market this a special military operation to liberate Ukraine from Nazis. That’s a pretty hard sell if you nuke one of the places you’re supposed to be liberating and will probably cross a line with the likes of China.

 

 

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Jimmy_D

Jimmy_D

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, skintsaint said:

image.png.34779fceb0498e07a9e151d967394379.png

They’re the literal definition of stupid evil. Targeting civilians has galvanised resistance against them, both within Ukraine and internationally. Europe have gone cold turkey on Russia’s biggest export, and Russia won’t be getting those sales back. Sweden, Finland, and to a certain extent, even Switzerland have abandoned neutral stances. It’s alienated their allies, to the point that even China have been carefully navigating to avoid overtly supporting the invasion. Even militarily, they’ve been using weapons they have limited stocks of, which they can’t produce at the moment, on targets that do nothing to weaken Ukraine’s military.

Russia turned up at the start of the war with 45000 body bags and mobile crematoriums. They didn’t have those because they thought the war would take months and they would need them for Russian troops.

It’s no wonder that peace talks never had any chance of succeeding, or that Ukraine’s troops have been so motivated. They’re paying a terrible price to stop Russia, but they’re making that sacrifice to stop the genocide of their people.

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kyle04

kyle04

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

The BBC running a story that Russia has reduced the minimum term of an army contract to 3 months and raised the maximum age of 'volunteers' to 60 in order to recruit men to send to Ukraine.

Russia are shortening military cadets training courses, and Wagner PMC have been trawling prisons again offering pardons in exchange for 6 months service. Ukraine will be facing more murderers and rapists together with young boys in the near future. Men from the "separatist" regions continue to be forcibly rounded up and sent to the front lines. This will not end well for any of them.

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Jimmy_D

Jimmy_D

Posted
Posted

Seems there’s starting to be a shift in tone from Putin‘s mouthpieces.

Meanwhile the security situation in Russian occupied areas is obviously much better now, as they’ve decided that the referenda to join Russia are back on. None of which Russia currently completely control. Maybe they can get the Ukrainian army to take care of part of it so everyone can vote.

Seems the real reason is that it’d mean “Russian territory” was occupied, giving Russia an excuse for full mobilisation, and also making it legal to send conscripts in under Russian law.

Between fears in Russia over mobilisation, and the measures propping up the Russian economy against sanctions starting to crumble, the stock market has reacted badly there.

It’s certainly a risky strategy. Full mobilisation wouldn’t help much. Russia’s command structure has been severely hit in Ukraine, and with it their ability to effectively train new troops, and on top of that it’d be unbelievably unpopular, with the vast majority of recruits being unwilling conscripts that’d be even less effective.

On top of that, by “annexing” currently occupied territory, Putin risks making himself appear increasingly weak, as it’d effectively mean “Russia” itself was occupied, and there would be nothing Russia could do to get it “back.”

On top of that, it also removes any sense that Ukraine moving to liberate Crimea would be escalation, since Ukraine would already be on Russian claimed territory.

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badgerx16

badgerx16

Posted
Posted (edited)

Full mobilisation requires:

1) People wiling to sign up - metropolitan European Russians won't be eager to join, so they wil be stuck with the ethnic groups further East, as they currently seem to be doing. Sooner or later the regions will cotton on.

2) Time to train them - time they don't have, so ( at best ) half trained conscripts will be being fed into a modern meat grinder operated by experienced and motivated opponents.

3) Equipment for them to use. Most of Russia's heavy gear was originally built in Ukraine, so there is limited capability to generate new machines, and they seem to be 'donating' their diminishing stock to Ukraine in similar quantities to what UA is vapourising. Although Russia has reportedly thousands of AFVs in storage, they have already burned through the fully, or even partially, operational stuff, and are now cannibalising what is left to try to build something that at least drives under it's own power. Most of their 'reserve' is simply scrap.

 

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Jimmy_D

Jimmy_D

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Full mobilisation requires:

1) People wiling to sign up - metropolitan European Russians won't be eager to join, so they wil be stuck with the ethnic groups further East, as they currently seem to be doing. Sooner or later the regions will cotton on.

2) Time to train them - time they don't have, so ( at best ) half trained conscripts will be being fed into a modern meat grinder operated by experienced and motivated opponents.

3) Equipment for them to use. Most of Russia's heavy gear was originally built in Ukraine, so there is limited capability to generate new machines, and they seem to be 'donating' their diminishing stock to Ukraine in similar quantities to what UA is vapourising. Although Russia has reportedly thousands of AFVs in storage, they have already burned through the fully, or even partially, operational stuff, and are now cannibalising what is left to try to build something that at least drives under it's own power. Most of their 'reserve' is simply scrap.

 

They also need better logistics than they currently have just to supply that equipment (and supplies) just to the troops they currently have. Mobilised troops would only put more strain on that.

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farawaysaint

farawaysaint

Posted
Posted

So partial mobilisation then, the army reserves are being sent into Ukraine. Also threatening nukes again should Russia be threatened (of course the Donbas will be “Russian” after this weekend).

For the first time I am actually starting to worry about this nut job. There seems to be no god damn off-ramp.

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skintsaint

skintsaint

Posted
Posted (edited)

300k reservists. Good luck kitting them out as they can't even kit their current lot out in standard stuff.

I'm guessing these reservists are not coming from the poor or far reaches of Russia like the current mob - as soon as the bodybags start coming back it may have more of an effect at home.

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Jimmy_D

Jimmy_D

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, farawaysaint said:

So partial mobilisation then, the army reserves are being sent into Ukraine. Also threatening nukes again should Russia be threatened (of course the Donbas will be “Russian” after this weekend).

For the first time I am actually starting to worry about this nut job. There seems to be no god damn off-ramp.

Aiming for calling up 300k reserves then. Also all current military contacts have been extended indefinitely. Even if they could get anywhere near that number, it’s unlikely to change much. Force multipliers in modern warfare are just too effective, it’s just sending a load of Russians underprepared and underequipped who will be starting with rock bottom morale into an army that’s already breaking.

As for the nuclear risk, it would be like someone getting into a punch up in a bar and responding to it going badly by dropping a dozen grenades, after a whole slew of people have agreed to hand them grenades. Even that vastly underplays how much of an escalation it would be. It is vanishingly unlikely it could possibly get anywhere near going that far.

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badgerx16

badgerx16

Posted
Posted (edited)

Putin, ( paraphrased ) - "We have advanced weapons, better than the West, and we will use them".

Reality - No, you really have not. For instance, the Armata is only fit for Moscow parades.

 

Putin - " I'm not bluffing"

Reality - The cards you hold are 2, 3, 6, 7, and 8, in 3 different suits. Not only are you bluffing, your palms are dripping sweat, your knees are knocking, and that twitch over your eye looks like an earthquake.

 

I wonder if any of these reservists will come from west of the Volga.

 

Edited by badgerx16
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egg

egg

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, farawaysaint said:

So partial mobilisation then, the army reserves are being sent into Ukraine. Also threatening nukes again should Russia be threatened (of course the Donbas will be “Russian” after this weekend).

For the first time I am actually starting to worry about this nut job. There seems to be no god damn off-ramp.

Too many amateur 'experts' dismiss opinions like yours. Is he really going to walk away licking his wounds if Russia don't gain significant ground after this partial mobilization? I don't see it - his ego and political reputation won't allow it. If he uses a tactical nuke (not a strategic one) will the west really respond in kind? At some point I fear he'll test the west. 

Edited by egg
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