Russia

[badgerx16]

3 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

Seems it actually was Storm Shadow, assuming these pictures are accurate.

Also looks like Russian air defence operators are seeing shadows everywhere, reports of two Russian helicopters and two Russian jets hit by friendly fire so far today.

 

2 Mi8 helos, an SU-34 and an SU-35.

[badgerx16]

Taken from REDDIT,.......

 

There is an account called "Fighterbomber" on Telegram that seems to be someone in the Russian air force because they post news about aviation incidents.

Earlier they posted this:

> Yesterday, two Storms \[Storm Shadow missiles\] flew where they wanted to go. And they did not travel the shortest distance, as they had done before, but took a tricky route, at extremely low altitudes, and even covered by decoys.

> So far the distance is not 560 km, but it doesn't mean anything, because they could give them missiles with different ranges or just Ukrainians decided to hit this particular target. Today it struck again.

> **The sooner our air defence and electronic warfare systems adapt to the fact that such a missile can come even from the rear, the better for everyone.**

 

[buctootim]

[badgerx16]

Ukrainian air defence claim to have shot down all the missiles launched at Kyiv overnight, including 6 Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles and 9 Kalibr cruise missiles.

[Weston Super Saint]

2 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

Ukrainian air defence claim to have shot down all the missiles launched at Kyiv overnight, including 6 Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles and 9 Kalibr cruise missiles.

3 people injured apparently....

[badgerx16]

5 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

3 people injured apparently....

Unfortunately a lot of hot scrap metal has to fall from the sky with every interception. ( As has been said on Social Media, the Russians have a 100% success rate of intercepting Patriot missiles with the Kinzhals ).

On a side note, France is now reported to be sending SCALP missiles, their version of Storm Shadow, as part of their latest delivery, along with more AMX-10 light tanks and other goodies.

Edited 16 May, 2023 by badgerx16

[Whitey Grandad]

49 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Unfortunately a lot of hot scrap metal has to fall from the sky with every interception. ( As has been said on Social Media, the Russians have a 100% success rate of intercepting Patriot missiles with the Kinzhals ).

On a side note, France is now reported to be sending SCALP missiles, their version of Storm Shadow, as part of their latest delivery, along with more AMX-10 light tanks and other goodies.

Are those the version that can be land or sea launched?

[badgerx16]

8 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

Are those the version that can be land or sea launched?

Yes

[Jimmy_D]

2 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

Unfortunately a lot of hot scrap metal has to fall from the sky with every interception. ( As has been said on Social Media, the Russians have a 100% success rate of intercepting Patriot missiles with the Kinzhals ).

On a side note, France is now reported to be sending SCALP missiles, their version of Storm Shadow, as part of their latest delivery, along with more AMX-10 light tanks and other goodies.

 

1 hour ago, Whitey Grandad said:

Are those the version that can be land or sea launched?

As far as I can tell, the sea launched version is the non-export version that France developed and it also has a range in excess of 500km.

That range would make it restricted from being exported, so it’s unlikely to be that version, especially as Ukraine don’t have a way to sea launch at the moment anyway, so there’s no benefit to sending a retro-restricted version of that missile.

The restriction is non-binding, so the extremely small possibility that France have ignored that and are sending the  500km+ range versions will be giving Russia a headache, but it looks likely France are essentially sending identical missiles to the ones the UK have sent.

[Jimmy_D]

5 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

Ukrainian air defence claim to have shot down all the missiles launched at Kyiv overnight, including 6 Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles and 9 Kalibr cruise missiles.

I’m guessing they had figured out the location of a Patriot system and wanted the PR victory of one being destroyed to be sending that much all at once. They got the opposite of that.

I’d imagine there are some pretty nervous people that claimed those ‘impossible to intercept’ capabilities in Russia for the Kinzhal when it was developed.

[buctootim]

6 hours ago, Jimmy_D said:

I’d imagine there are some pretty nervous people that claimed those ‘impossible to intercept’ capabilities in Russia for the Kinzhal when it was developed.

Funny you should say that......

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/05/16/3-russian-hypersonic-missile-scientists-jailed-for-treasoncolleagues-say-a81155

[cloggy saint]

Russian foreign minister claims that "we have all the necessary means to achieve the goals we have set." Presumably that includes a time machine to go back to Feb 2022 and take Kiev in a few days. 

[buctootim]

 

Same street in Bucha 12 months apart. Edit: just to be clear the bottom one is what it looks like now, rebuilt after the Russian attempted takeover of Kyiv when they were stopped at Bucha.  

Edited 20 May, 2023 by buctootim

[badgerx16]

Wagner claiming to have completed the capture of Bakhmut, and that they now intend to withdraw from Ukraine and start operations in Sudan.

[buctootim]

52 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Wagner claiming to have completed the capture of Bakhmut, and that they now intend to withdraw from Ukraine and start operations in Sudan.

A reporter phoned up Wagner on their recruiting line pretending to be interested in signing up. They basically said there was the choice of Africa or Ukraine but he'd be better off in Africa because he'd probably live till the end of contract. Whereas...

[Jimmy_D]

That awkward moment when you've been arming people against their will, sending them against an enemy that allows them to surrender, generally creating conditions that make rebellion more likely, and 90% of your military is tied up in a special military operation.

Belgorod in Russia, near the border with Ukraine, being attacked by anti-Putin Russian separatist forces today according to reports.

[Sheaf Saint]

2 hours ago, Jimmy_D said:

That awkward moment when you've been arming people against their will, sending them against an enemy that allows them to surrender, generally creating conditions that make rebellion more likely, and 90% of your military is tied up in a special military operation.

Belgorod in Russia, near the border with Ukraine, being attacked by anti-Putin Russian separatist forces today according to reports.

 

[badgerx16]

Belgorod was granted to the Governorship of Kyiv by Peter the Great, so just restoring historical borders.

 

Plenty of Ukrainian trolling reversing the statements the Russians made justifying the 2014 invasion and the SMO, recognising the rights of the local people to self determination and liberation from an oppressive regime.

[Jimmy_D]

Quite the dilemma for Russia here.

Seems the separatists are digging in to extremely defensible positions and giving every indication they’re not going to leave.

Occupied Russian territory is something that Putin can’t afford to ignore, it’s utterly toxic to him politically, but considering the time and resources they needed to sink into being able to claim Bakhmut was occupied, it’s likely to require resources that Russia won’t want to divert, considering the threat of Ukraine having intelligence of where that’s being diverted from, and Ukraine having the resources now to take advantage of that.

At the same time, while they’re not officially working for or with Ukraine, any air forces that go near there will be within range of Ukraine air defence, and there won’t be any hesitation in taking the opportunity to hit Russian air assets. (Nor can Ukraine afford to ignore armed Russian air assets near their border, considering the devastation they’ve caused to Ukraine’s civilians.)

Russia don’t seem to have any good options available to them just at the moment.

[badgerx16]

One Russian commentator says they should aim to attack Kyiv and annexe Kharkiv - has he been in a coma for the last 18 months  ?

[whelk]

24 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

One Russian commentator says they should aim to attack Kyiv and annexe Kharkiv - has he been in a coma for the last 18 months  ?

Or maybe reading this thread from the start

[Lighthouse]

I think being banned from Eurovision two years running was just too much for some Russians.

[cloggy saint]

33 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

I think being banned from Eurovision two years running was just too much for some Russians.

That's probably the one saving grace of the whole shit show.

[skintsaint]

 

[Sheaf Saint]

Russia caught out staging 'evidence' of US involvement in the Belgorod incident.

 

Edited 25 May, 2023 by Sheaf Saint

[badgerx16]

54 minutes ago, Sheaf Saint said:

Rissia caught out staging 'evidence' of US involvement in the Belgorod incident.

 

One theory is that the Humvees are actually ex-Afghan army vehicles that made their way to Russia after the Taliban took over. Another is that they are ex-Iraqi army originally captured by ISIS.

They certainly don't look as if they have Ukrainian camo patterns.

Edited 25 May, 2023 by badgerx16

[Jimmy_D]

7 hours ago, skintsaint said:

 

Still no confirmation of whether that ship was sunk or not, but if it was, that’s one of their most advanced ships gone. Apparently it’s the Ivan Khurs, a spy/intelligence ship that’s got a lot of modern Western designed tech on it, they don’t have the ability to replace it or its capabilities, at all at the moment, let alone in a timeframe that will help them against Ukraine.

They only have two ships of its class, and the other is in Russia’s Northern Fleet, unable to access the Black Sea due to Turkey’s control of the Bosporus Strait with the Montreux Convention.

[Lighthouse]

Theories on the latest attack on Moscow? I’m going with desperate false flag operation to try and rally up public support for the war and draw attention from the forecasted counter offensive.

[badgerx16]

18 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Theories on the latest attack on Moscow? I’m going with desperate false flag operation to try and rally up public support for the war and draw attention from the forecasted counter offensive.

Pure terrorism. What have the Russians done to provoke such a callous, violent, and inhumane reaction ?

[badgerx16]

On a serious note; Ukraine does possess the capability to launch drones at Moscow, but why do it ? Many of their Western allies have warned against action directed at Russian territory, although this may well be simnply words spoken in public for Russian consumption. On a practical level, the chances of a long range strike maintaining it's accuracy across 500Km of supposedly defended Russia and overcoming the GPS jamming and other EW protection deployed in Moscow are extrememly slim.

As a potential false flag, Putin was a lot more violent when setting up his cassus belli for the war with the Chechens in 1999.

One other point, looking at the pictures of the apartment blocks allegedly hit, there doesn't seem to have been any sort of explosive payload on the drones, although there is one video of a very large explosion as one apparently crashes in an open field.

 

However, it has shaken up the Russian propaganda shysters.

Edited 30 May, 2023 by badgerx16

[Jimmy_D]

40 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Theories on the latest attack on Moscow? I’m going with desperate false flag operation to try and rally up public support for the war and draw attention from the forecasted counter offensive.

Four possibilities as far as I can see. Ukraine, Russian partisans that don’t agree with the war, Russian politics that don’t agree with, or want to discredit Putin, or Russian false flag.

Ukraine, main benefit would probably be to try and get Russia to relocate air defence away from Ukraine, and possibly further exhaust their stock of cruise missiles ahead of the counteroffensive. Also creates political doubt and possibly instability around Putin, possibly gets seen as the consequence of Russia hammering Kyiv.

Main risks would be alienating Western support, even with plausibly deniability, that’s one hell of a risk to be taking, risk reward doesn’t add up for me, but can see it may have been tempting. Not impossible I guess, especially as using extremely low yield ordinance could be passed off as acceptable and more sending a message.

Russian partisans against the war, main benefit would be to possibly create political instability and hasten Putin going.

Risks would be being sent to a gulag if caught, and having the opposite effect of causing Russian conscription to expand their war effort. Again risk reward doesn’t add up, and the means to do it are less likely for this possibility. Depends how far the Russian Free Legion et al actually got, whether they’re still operating unopposed in Russia, and how widespread the support actually is among Russians.

Putin rivals (possibly Wagner or inner circle starting to splinter), main benefit again creating political instability and creating the conditions for a PMC to start a coup.

Main risks would be having to buy a bungalow and start drinking coffee instead of tea with a very low chance of success.

Russian false flag, main benefits would be attempting to erode support for Ukraine and/or quell domestic dissent against the war while motivating people to support the war effort.

Main risks would be that it makes Russia, and especially Putin look weak to the people.

 

Russia’s response has been… interesting… They’ve not used it to try to escalate. Despite Moscow itself actually coming under attack, a nuclear response hasn’t been threatened or even alluded to, just that Russia reserves the right to respond in kind. After three days of Kyiv being hit with missile and drone attacks, that seems underwhelming to say the least.

Instead the focus seems to be on avoiding panic among Russians.

None of these options are screaming out as being the only obvious answer. Russia’s response perhaps gives a clue, they’ve not reacted to take advantage of the most obvious benefits to them of either it being Ukraine, or a false flag (not yet at least). My bet would go on it being Russian partisans that haven’t necessarily thought through what they’re doing fully, but like I said, no answer is completely obvious here.

[aintforever]

The favourites are surely the guys who went on that little rampage in Belgorod. 

[badgerx16]

 

[buctootim]

27 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

 

Seems to me most Russians genuinely think its a small scale peacekeeping / enforcement operation a bit like soldiers in NI in the 1970s /80s. They think its their land and  a Facist RoI government are killing loyalists. 

Trump, this war and the China situation, reven the Johnson Government  has demonstrated just how pervasive and effective propaganda / disinformation can be and how tenuous our access to relatively objective information and news is.    

[skintsaint]

Some interesting insight.

[buctootim]

 

[Weston Super Saint]

1 hour ago, buctootim said:

 

Although to be fair, I think Nigeria has way more princes that need help with their money.

[buctootim]

 

[badgerx16]

 

[badgerx16]

Trump expands his "I can stop the war in 24 hours" bullshit on FOX News.....

“I will get them into a room, and I know an exact way. You tell one ‘you’re not going to get anything unless you make a deal.’ You tell the other one ‘they’re going to get a lot unless you make a deal.’

 

Guess which "one" in Putin and which is Zelensky.

Edited 5 June, 2023 by badgerx16

[Lighthouse]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65806152

I guess that's it then. Months of preparation all over in 20 minutes this morning.

[badgerx16]

5 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65806152

I guess that's it then. Months of preparation all over in 20 minutes this morning.

220 Storm Shadows shot down, 60 Challenger 2 destroyed, 20 F-16s eliminated.............

What I find irritating with the BBC reporting of the Russian side, is the "BBC has been unable to verify...." ; Of course you haven't, they are simply making shit up.

Edited 5 June, 2023 by badgerx16

[badgerx16]

Further to the spat between Wagner and 72nd Brigade, the Freedom of Russia Legion, ( Russians fighting alongside the Ukrainian army ), have apparently offered a prisoner swap with Wagner in exchange for the captured Brigade commander.

Russians fighting Russians in Russia offering to exchange Russian prisoners with other Russians, who may or may not also be fighting Russians.

Edited 5 June, 2023 by badgerx16

[skintsaint]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-65816109

Another war crime.

[badgerx16]

4 hours ago, skintsaint said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-65816109

Another war crime.

They are going for the full house. Not much left short of a nuke.

 

Most of the area that will flood is on the left bank, which is still occupied and has been heavily fortified by the Russians.

Edit: reporters in Kherson covering the evacuation from the rising river levels are now saying that the Russians are shelling the evacuation routes.

 

Edited 6 June, 2023 by badgerx16

[farawaysaint]

I’m tired of this, I never thought I’d live to see a war of this scale and it’s being blogged in real time with all of it  horrific.

Russia is from another time and their mindset is alien to the West. 

 

[Jimmy_D]

And of course Russia are already trying to blame Ukraine.

Never mind that an airstrike causing this has already been ruled out, the water level of the dam (controlled by Russia) was raised to a record level just before this happened, and Russia were seen mining the dam months ago. Also, look at the difference between Kherson and Bakhmut after the battles for each for the difference in ideology.

Looks like it's yet another example of short sighted temper and spite by Russia. Likely an attempt to make crossing the Dniper more difficult to cross and divert Ukrainian resources to the rescue efforts, as well as change the narrative if they thought that Ukraine's counter-offensive would be linked to D-Day. The fact that it's a single terrorist act among the worst this century is just par for the course at this point for Russia.

They also just flooded the majority of their own front lines around Kherson, pushing back their own shelling range, and as well as that, cut off the fresh water supply to Crimea. That there are some military benefits to Ukraine from this will likely form the basis of Russian disinformation about this, but it also shows the sort of state Russia's military must be in, that they're willing to resort to such desperate measures for such short term 'gains'. It appears they're just trying to cause as much damage and destruction as possible for when it's back in Ukraine's hands.

[badgerx16]

20 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

.
It appears they're just trying to cause as much damage and destruction as possible for when it's back in Ukraine's hands.

"If we can't have it we'll make sure you can't either".

Perhaps they are resigned to having to go back to at best the pre-SMO borders and want to cripple as much of Ukraine and it's post war economy in a fit of spite. Collectively the Russian nation act like a petulant 5 year-old.

[AlexLaw76]

33 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

And of course Russia are already trying to blame Ukraine.

Never mind that an airstrike causing this has already been ruled out, the water level of the dam (controlled by Russia) was raised to a record level just before this happened, and Russia were seen mining the dam months ago. Also, look at the difference between Kherson and Bakhmut after the battles for each for the difference in ideology.

Looks like it's yet another example of short sighted temper and spite by Russia. Likely an attempt to make crossing the Dniper more difficult to cross and divert Ukrainian resources to the rescue efforts, as well as change the narrative if they thought that Ukraine's counter-offensive would be linked to D-Day. The fact that it's a single terrorist act among the worst this century is just par for the course at this point for Russia.

They also just flooded the majority of their own front lines around Kherson, pushing back their own shelling range, and as well as that, cut off the fresh water supply to Crimea. That there are some military benefits to Ukraine from this will likely form the basis of Russian disinformation about this, but it also shows the sort of state Russia's military must be in, that they're willing to resort to such desperate measures for such short term 'gains'. It appears they're just trying to cause as much damage and destruction as possible for when it's back in Ukraine's hands.

What next, Russia about to run out of missiles?

[badgerx16]

40 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

What next, Russia about to run out of missiles?

No, 3 days to take Kyiv. After all, the Ukrainians ARE losing, aren't they ?