Russia

[AlexLaw76]

8 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

No, 3 days to take Kyiv. After all, the Ukrainians ARE losing, aren't they ?

they are all whilst Russia occupies their land.

[badgerx16]

2 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

they are all whilst Russia occupies their land.

Less and less every day.

[moonraker]

56 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

What next, Russia about to run out of missiles?

According to your early analysis Russia were going to achieve all their objectives in two - three weeks, that didn't go to plan.  Yes Russia may run out of missiles at some point, or at least be so denuded of them that they are unable to launch any meaningful strikes.  Add in Ukraines increasing air defence capability and Putin and his gaggle of war criminals are rapidly running out of options, and this is my biggest worry.

[whelk]

48 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

they are all whilst Russia occupies their land.

Twat

[aintforever]

This video is a few months old but gives a good idea of the significance of the dam:

 

[farawaysaint]

 

2 hours ago, badgerx16 said:

No, 3 days to take Kyiv. After all, the Ukrainians ARE losing, aren't they ?

No but unfortunately they’re not really winning either. It’s now a stalemate and is unlikely to change by most accounts.

I have nothing but support for the brave Ukrainians but they lack the manpower and equipment to retake Ukraine right now as far as I can tell. They will win some victories and suffer some losses but the line of contact doesn’t seem to be shifting anymore. 
 

Its going to end up in a farce like Transnistria or South Ossetia with pariah countries recognising the territories as Russian while Russians squat on their ill gotten gains. 

[Jimmy_D]

1 hour ago, farawaysaint said:

 

No but unfortunately they’re not really winning either. It’s now a stalemate and is unlikely to change by most accounts.

I have nothing but support for the brave Ukrainians but they lack the manpower and equipment to retake Ukraine right now as far as I can tell. They will win some victories and suffer some losses but the line of contact doesn’t seem to be shifting anymore. 
 

Its going to end up in a farce like Transnistria or South Ossetia with pariah countries recognising the territories as Russian while Russians squat on their ill gotten gains. 

Russia don’t even have the spare resources to prevent their own territory being occupied by a tiny raiding force at the moment.

Most accounts are optimistic about Ukraine’s chances, and Russian sources are certainly pessimistic about Russia’s chances of preventing the counteroffensive.

Storm Shadow missiles have had a massive impact on Russian logistics, and the response that Russia has been forced to adopt is causing issues for them too.

Meanwhile Ukraine’s initial recon-in-force probing attacks are turning out to be strong enough to liberate territory.

That’s without any of the NATO trained divisions with NATO tanks being committed yet.

The front lines might have been relatively static for a while, but the balance of power certainly hasn’t been static, and it’s certainly not a stalemate.

The balance of power will continue to tilt further as well, Ukraine has F16s on the way, and next seems to be growing support for further extreme long range missiles and artillery.

[kyle04]

Meanwhile back in the real world :

'Absurd Science Fiction': Wagner Group Boss Slams Russian Claims Of Ukrainian Losses (msn.com)

Little changes in the Kremlin these days. The Ukraine MOD tally of Russian dead alone so far have passed 210k. This maybe a little fanciful but even if only 2/3rds accurate, and allowing for well accepted military extrapolation to wounded, missing etc, this may put total Russian casualties nearing 500k, against an enemy with little air power, no navy and a fairly weak cricket team by all accounts.

[cloggy saint]

If a face ever said 'nasty bastard', then this is it. He should probably stay away from high rise windows.

[skintsaint]

 

[Lighthouse]

TBF Ukrainian tractors have proven to be a deadly scourge of Russian armed forces so far, I'd probably fear them more than the Leopards.

[Jimmy_D]

3 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

TBF Ukrainian tractors have proven to be a deadly scourge of Russian armed forces so far, I'd probably fear them more than the Leopards.

[badgerx16]

Baghdad Bob's Russian cousin; Nothing to see here, everything is normal.( Psst, look behind you ).

 

[farawaysaint]

Counterattack looks to have started and we have the first videos of leopards in action (and one seemingly destroyed).

[skintsaint]

49 minutes ago, farawaysaint said:

Counterattack looks to have started and we have the first videos of leopards in action (and one seemingly destroyed).

Expect to see more destroyed stuff then soon as losses are inevitable. 

[skintsaint]

Couple of interesting things from this clip, Russians running en masse from an alleged fight. And secondly it looks like they took out quite a bit of Ukrainian equipment beforehand though. The offensive is going to be messy.

 

[buctootim]

Surprise attack as Ukrainian soldiers crossing river 

 

 

[Jimmy_D]

On 08/06/2023 at 17:21, farawaysaint said:

Counterattack looks to have started and we have the first videos of leopards in action (and one seemingly destroyed).

 

On 08/06/2023 at 18:11, skintsaint said:

Expect to see more destroyed stuff then soon as losses are inevitable. 

Reportedly the crew survived, and the tank has been recovered and repaired already, but yes, Ukraine are making a huge sacrifice to protect and reclaim their home. They're against an army that, only two years ago, was thought to be second only to the US Army. Not everything will go their way.

The perception of how things are going will be skewed by Russia tending to be far louder and far less honest about developments than Ukraine's leadership, as was seen in the battle to liberate Kherson, but even with that, it's so far been reports of Ukraine being slowed by higher than expected resistance in some areas, rather than being stopped or repelled.

[badgerx16]

44 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

 

Reportedly the crew survived, and the tank has been recovered and repaired already, but yes, Ukraine are making a huge sacrifice to protect and reclaim their home. They're against an army that, only two years ago, was thought to be second only to the US Army. Not everything will go their way.

The perception of how things are going will be skewed by Russia tending to be far louder and far less honest about developments than Ukraine's leadership, as was seen in the battle to liberate Kherson, but even with that, it's so far been reports of Ukraine being slowed by higher than expected resistance in some areas, rather than being stopped or repelled.

Some of the armour is reported to have been hit by KA-52 attack helicopters using missiles with a 12Km range. This is far beyond the range of Gepard or portable anti-air weapons  and that the recent spate of long range missile attacks on Ukrainian cities has pinned their longer range AA systems back to protect population centres, meaning the KA-52's cannot be easily countered.

[Jimmy_D]

53 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Some of the armour is reported to have been hit by KA-52 attack helicopters using missiles with a 12Km range. This is far beyond the range of Gepard or portable anti-air weapons  and that the recent spate of long range missile attacks on Ukrainian cities has pinned their longer range AA systems back to protect population centres, meaning the KA-52's cannot be easily countered.

There’s visual confirmation of at least 33 KA-52s being downed already, with an estimated upper limit of 100 that Russia have serviceable. That upper limit has probably been cut significantly by sanctions affecting Russia’s ability to maintain them, especially with constant combat usage. Ukraine is constantly getting new AA equipment, especially recently, as well as Sparrow AAMs that would be an option. On top of that Storm Shadows may well be an option on their base of operations.

They’re one of Russia’s stronger assets, but not one that they can use with impunity.

[skintsaint]

BBC News - Ukraine war: Russia moves to take direct control of Wagner Group.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65871232

[Jonnyboy]

I see the Armchair Generals (Tm) of Saintsweb still haven't enlisted at the front line yet. 

[Jimmy_D]

1 minute ago, Jonnyboy said:

I see the Armchair Generals (Tm) of Saintsweb still haven't enlisted at the front line yet. 

Don’t you need to go and try to fend off a Challenger II with a shovel or something?

[badgerx16]

1 hour ago, Jonnyboy said:

I see the Armchair Generals (Tm) of Saintsweb still haven't enlisted at the front line yet. 

Is the UK at war ?

Mind you, you would be safe, they stopped recruiting 12 year olds as drummer boys 200 years ago.

[CB Fry]

1 hour ago, Jonnyboy said:

I see the Armchair Generals (Tm) of Saintsweb still haven't enlisted at the front line yet. 

The UK aren't at war so there isn't a front line.

If you mean UK Nationals being mercenaries for foreign countries then we can only assume you'll be on the first plane out of here to support kindly Uncle Vlad in his battle with the Nazis.

What time is your flight?

[Lighthouse]

Looks like they are going for Mariupol, from the villages liberated so far.

[Colinjb]

14 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Looks like they are going for Mariupol, from the villages liberated so far.

Or at the very least to the Azov Coast. If they were going for a town my bet would be Berdyans'k. Easier shot then to the Kerch Bridge.

[skintsaint]

2 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

Looks like they are going for Mariupol, from the villages liberated so far.

Reckon if they get that far will just bypass west and east of Mariupol to the coast. No point in a slog fest when they can just cut it off. Russians will withdraw though if that was going to happen.

[Lighthouse]

9 minutes ago, skintsaint said:

Reckon if they get that far will just bypass west and east of Mariupol to the coast. No point in a slog fest when they can just cut it off. Russians will withdraw though if that was going to happen.

Yep, looks like they’re just going to bisect the Russian forces in that general direction, down towards the coast. No way the Russians will fight as hard as the Ukrainians did in the Azovstal plant.

[Lighthouse]

https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1668083952039362561

[badgerx16]

2 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1668083952039362561

As pointed out in the comments; The dam could not become "Ukraine's Chernobyl"....... Chernobyl is Ukraine's Chernobyl.

[farawaysaint]

27 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

As pointed out in the comments; The dam could not become "Ukraine's Chernobyl"....... Chernobyl is Ukraine's Chernobyl.

Im quite amazed they haven’t bothered to amend it. The article itself was written by a wonderfully competent Ukrainian journalist and some moronic editor does that. They even use the Russian spelling of the city 😂😂

Edited 12 June, 2023 by farawaysaint

[Lighthouse]

32 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

As pointed out in the comments; The dam could not become "Ukraine's Chernobyl"....... Chernobyl is Ukraine's Chernobyl.

I didn’t think that needed pointing out TBH.

[whelk]

See our resident Wolfie Smith has been on again sprinkling his emojis

[Jonnyboy]

On 12/06/2023 at 09:25, Lighthouse said:

Looks like they are going for Mariupol, from the villages liberated so far.

Whilst risking more abuse from the gammonati on here, I found this blog theory quite interesting from a neutral standpoint, including the comments on the dam and Crimea. 

https://sonar21.com/the-planning-of-the-ukraine-invasion-from-the-russian-point-of-view-maybe/#comment-134862

[Jimmy_D]

2 hours ago, Jonnyboy said:

Whilst risking more abuse from the gammonati on here, I found this blog theory quite interesting from a neutral standpoint, including the comments on the dam and Crimea. 

https://sonar21.com/the-planning-of-the-ukraine-invasion-from-the-russian-point-of-view-maybe/#comment-134862

If you think that’s neutral, I think we might be getting to the root of your issues with reality.

[AlexLaw76]

2 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

If you think that’s neutral, I think we might be getting to the root of your issues with reality.

it is as neutral as you are.

This conflict is very odd, from a information PoV. Pure unadulterated propaganda feeding the machine.

Edited 13 June, 2023 by AlexLaw76

[sadoldgit]

“When war comes the first casualty is truth”.

Hiram W Johnson

[Jimmy_D]

23 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

it is as neutral as you are.

This conflict is very odd, from a information PoV. Pure unadulterated propaganda feeding the machine.

Blimey, you really do love using weak false equivalence all the time don’t you?

Still, at least we haven’t seen half the British tanks Ukraine are using destroyed in one weekend eh?

In any case, it’s not the merit of the viewpoints, or lack thereof, from that blog that was funny, it was the fact that JB was either completely disingenuous or completely ****witted to claim it’s neutral.

[AlexLaw76]

2 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

Blimey, you really do love using weak false equivalence all the time don’t you?

Still, at least we haven’t seen half the British tanks Ukraine are using destroyed in one weekend eh?

In any case, it’s not the merit of the viewpoints, or lack thereof, from that blog that was funny, it was the fact that JB was either completely disingenuous or completely ****witted to claim it’s neutral.

As our armed forces facing more cuts, I should imagine our contribution would barely last a weekend in all out war - given we had about 8 days worth of ammo before we gave loads to Ukraine - for such a scenario.

Edited 13 June, 2023 by AlexLaw76

[aintforever]

48 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

This conflict is very odd, from a information PoV. Pure unadulterated propaganda feeding the machine.

Not really odd though is it, to have propaganda during times of war.

[AlexLaw76]

5 minutes ago, aintforever said:

Not really odd though is it, to have propaganda during times of war.

we are not at war

[aintforever]

1 minute ago, AlexLaw76 said:

we are not at war

No but there is a war going on in Europe and we are involved. It’s not odd in the slightest that there is propaganda.

[egg]

4 minutes ago, aintforever said:

No but there is a war going on in Europe and we are involved. It’s not odd in the slightest that there is propaganda.

Huge amounts of propoganda, that some people seem to mistake for fact.

[egg]

Here's Putin's take on recent events. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/13/ukraines-losses-catastrophic-no-need-for-martial-law-putin

[aintforever]

7 minutes ago, egg said:

Here's Putin's take on recent events. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/13/ukraines-losses-catastrophic-no-need-for-martial-law-putin

The thing is our media is biased but it’s a million miles from the bollocks Putin has been coming out with.

Problem is the Russians believe it, and they are so used to their media being controlled by the state they assume anything from a Western source is too so just dismiss it.

[whelk]

41 minutes ago, egg said:

Huge amounts of propoganda, that some people seem to mistake for fact.

Yeah why believe Sky, BBC, CNN etc. reporters on the ground when we have Jonnyboy and Batman supplying the truth?

Edited 13 June, 2023 by whelk

[badgerx16]

4 hours ago, Jonnyboy said:

Whilst risking more abuse from the gammonati on here, I found this blog theory quite interesting from a neutral standpoint, including the comments on the dam and Crimea. 

https://sonar21.com/the-planning-of-the-ukraine-invasion-from-the-russian-point-of-view-maybe/#comment-134862

From it's starting position in referring the the 2 "republics" it is hardly taking a neutral position. A 'neutral' position might perhaps call them 'disputed territory', but as only Russia has recognised their autonomy, referring to them as such is supporting the Russian narrative.

[Weston Super Saint]

9 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

As our armed forces facing more cuts, I should imagine our contribution would barely last a weekend in all out war - given we had about 8 days worth of ammo before we gave loads to Ukraine - for such a scenario.

This is just daft.

It may be true, we may have about 8 days worth of 'ammo' in stock right now, but as you point out, we are not at war. You don't go to bed on Sunday with zero sign of war, wake up on Monday and we are in an 'all out war'.  It would take months of posturing and negotiations before an event that huge would happen.

Guess what, during that time we would be making more 'ammo', more weapons, more vehicles, more planes, more ships etc etc. 

It is mental to think that our current stock of 'ammo' would be what we would have available on the first day of an 'all out war'.

[badgerx16]

Putin speaking bollocks yesterday about the Ukrainian offensive, the BBC says it has not yet been able to verify his statements.

Good luck with that.

 

Here's a clue; the man is a megalomaniac and compulsive liar.