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General Election 2015


trousers

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Election uncertainty and the prospect of a mansion tax are only part of a multitude of factors affecting the slowdown in London prices - a trend that has been observable since early 2014 and that has hit most parts of the London property market, not just the high end -two observations that are hard to reconcile with your hypothesis.

 

Either way, aren't falling house prices are a good thing?

 

The facts speak for themselves: the number of London properties in the £2m> bracket are still in the overwhelming minority.

 

And, finally, perhaps its a personal prejudice: but do I have much sympathy for middle class 50 somethings who've seen the value of their property 'rise exponentially' by sitting on their arses and, in the main, doing jacks**t to contribute to that rise, when all that's being asked of them is that they pay a fraction of that windfall in tax which can be used to build new homes etc?

 

Nah not really.

 

 

I'm not dealing in personal opinion here, it's up to you if you resent those people, and you're completely within your rights to. My point is, and was, that I think we will see a house price rise in the lower banded properties as a number of those people above downsize. I'm all for changing th council tax rates, but I think this will cause instability In the market, and will leave people clamouring for properties in worse areas so they don't have to pay this tax. However, we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

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Yeah but they've earned it by "doing the right thing". Like being fortunate to have been born at the front end of a housing boom. Not like the layabout scumbags without the foresight to be born in the correct era.

 

Just out of interest, why do have such resentment for these people? You seem very bitter towards others who have done well for themselves, either through fortune or hard work?

 

Live and let live...

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Just out of interest, why do have such resentment for these people? You seem very bitter towards others who have done well for themselves, either through fortune or hard work?

 

Live and let live...

 

Thats what you Tories tell the disabled bloke half starved to death in his bedsit.

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Why? Classic liberals, even Adam Smith and David Ricardo (shock horror), argued for the taxation of property where increases in value stemmed not from individual labour or contributions i.e. renovating your house but natural and social circumstances i.e. broad rises in market. For them, the distinction between earned and unearned income was a matter of fairness and justice.

 

If I edit my post to include those who have improved their home through their own hard work and now find themselves living in a mansion, would that help?

 

Besides, I'm not sure that Smith would approve of the mansion tax when measured against the canons of Equality (proportional to income? Nope), Certainty (not at the moment, given that the Labour party are refusing to divulge any details of how it will be due) or Economy (how much are the valuations of every property that might be liable going to cost, plus appeals, plus constant revaluations due to market changes, home improvements, deliberate disrepair, then collection and enforcement?)

 

Additionally, I'm fairly sure Smith, Riccardo et al would be utterly horrified at the levels of taxation, public spending and government intervention in the market in this country right now, let alone advocating more :lol:

 

Perhaps worth reading up before getting your kickers in a twist...

 

Perhaps worth not making assumptions like that, dear boy. A scholar of Smith, Ricardo, Malthus and Bentham should know better.

 

frothing about class warfare and the politics of envy being the only things that motivate such policy ideas.

 

Nobody said it was.

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Sounds rather like the politics of envy to me and you also admit to being prejudiced against the biggest section of wealth creators in the country, the middle classes, mainly on the basis that most of them who make the effort to buy their house as a family home might actually be rewarded by seeing the value of their property increase. Why should they pay a tax on the increase of the property value? They have paid tax on their earnings and also taxes to buy the property. Then they pay taxes to live in the house and also many will be taxed on it as the most substantial part of their estate when they pop their clogs.

 

Thankfully, even if Labour thought along those lines, they have the sense to realise that it would be a disaster for them electorally.

 

They bought a house; they've still got the same house. What they don't have is a bankful of money. If you want a new tax to raise money then you should tax money.

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Not trying anything! You just seem very bitter. It's no way to live a life envying what others have that you don't. I assume you'd like to see gambling taxed, in addition to lottery wins?

I think that's called projection.

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Not really. You're making out I am some kind of hate the rich nutcase based on one post. I think that's called bulls hit.

 

This is a forum. You can only base your opinions on what people write. To me, you come across as bitter and envious, but of course I know nothing of your life. You could be a millionaire playboy. You could live in a bedsit in Slough. I have no idea. However, from your posts about those who have made money from their houses by being the right age (and we both know this isn't the first time you've mentioned it - we've debated it before on this thread I believe), you seem to have a real problem with those who have lucked into money.

 

But, just out of interest, do you think lottery wins should be taxed?

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This is a forum. You can only base your opinions on what people write. To me, you come across as bitter and envious, but of course I know nothing of your life. You could be a millionaire playboy. You could live in a bedsit in Slough. I have no idea. However, from your posts about those who have made money from their houses by being the right age (and we both know this isn't the first time you've mentioned it - we've debated it before on this thread I believe), you seem to have a real problem with those who have lucked into money.

 

But, just out of interest, do you think lottery wins should be taxed?

I'd suggest you can't find any posts on this thread or anywhere else to back that up.

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I think it's pretty obvious. I thought it was Labour's job to spend, spend spend and borrow out of control?

 

Well..

 

(1) you posted up to 2011, which is only 1 year after the last election, and any party/coalition coming in to power in 2010 would have virtually zero impact on 2011 taxation and spending, so any spending profligacy you were showing was entirely due to the Labour government.

 

(2) the graph you posted shows debt, not deficit; If the national debt levels off then at that point we no longer have an increasing problem - we are paying down the debt (though in part due to increasing GDP, and which may therefore still mean we are running a budget deficit year to year).

 

Having tinkered further I think this is the most useful graph to look at. Shows data up to 2014, and uses the 2014 dataset (most recent available on the site). This indeed shows that the debt is increasing more slowly and starting to level off: http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/spending_chart_1997_2014UKp_14c1li011mcn_G0t

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I'd suggest you can't find any posts on this thread or anywhere else to back that up.

 

It may well have been with someone else. I kinda lump you in with Buctootim and Shurlock as you all spend disproportionate amounts of your time trying to trip me up, so apologies if not, but it's certainly a vibe you give off.

 

Anyway, what's your thought on lottery wins?

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I'm not dealing in personal opinion here, it's up to you if you resent those people, and you're completely within your rights to. My point is, and was, that I think we will see a house price rise in the lower banded properties as a number of those people above downsize. I'm all for changing th council tax rates, but I think this will cause instability In the market, and will leave people clamouring for properties in worse areas so they don't have to pay this tax. However, we'll just have to wait and see what happens.

 

There are too many variables and unknowns to establish what would happen in equilibrium; but if demand for £2m> properties fell because of the mansion tax; it follows their price also fall, thereby increasing the increase the supply of lower banded properties. Surely the result would be to offset the inflationary pressures you predict?

 

Of course, all this assumes that people only care about avoiding the tax. Never mind that it will be a fraction of their overall wealth and the windfall many have enjoyed over the last decade; never mind that many owners have an inherent preference to live in a nicer property in a more desirable location. Never mind all the other frictions to moving.

 

By the way, I don't resent anyone. That's an odd suggestion. I just don't have any sympathy for those who cry injustice. As a matter of principle, that's not all homeowners -the likes of you and your father-in-law, half clad, sweatily renovating a property do partly deserve any increase in its subsequent value :thumbup: :rolleyes:

 

By extension, I would be quite happy to differentiate between those who've made a substantial contribution to the value of the property eligible for the mansion tax rather than those who've just surfed the wave assuming a practical and wieldy mechanism existed.

Edited by shurlock
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This is a forum. You can only base your opinions on what people write. To me, you come across as bitter and envious, but of course I know nothing of your life. You could be a millionaire playboy. You could live in a bedsit in Slough. I have no idea. However, from your posts about those who have made money from their houses by being the right age (and we both know this isn't the first time you've mentioned it - we've debated it before on this thread I believe), you seem to have a real problem with those who have lucked into money.

 

But, just out of interest, do you think lottery wins should be taxed?

 

Winnings from gambling certainly should be. I believe it was until around 2001?

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There are too many variables and unknowns to establish what would happen in equilibrium; but if demand for £2m> properties fell because of the mansion tax; it follows their price also fall, thereby increasing the increase the supply of lower banded properties. Surely the result would be to offset the inflationary pressures you predict?

 

Of course, all this assumes that people only care about avoiding the tax. Never mind that it will be a fraction of their overall wealth and the windfall many have enjoyed over the last decade; never mind that many owners have an inherent preference to live in a nicer property in a more desirable location. Never mind all the other frictions to moving.

 

By the way, I don't resent anyone. That's an odd suggestion. I just don't have any sympathy for those who cry injustice. As a matter of principle, that's not all homeowners -the likes of you and your father-in-law, half clad, sweatily renovating a property do partly deserve any increase in its subsequent value :thumbup: :rolleyes:

 

Thinking aloud, if there was any robust and practical mechanism to differentiate between those who've made a substantial contribution to the value of the property eligible for the mansion tax rather than those who've just surfed the wave, I would quite like to see it reflected in policy.

 

Can't disagree with any of that. I'm not crying injustice by the way, all I am saying is there are better ways to do it, and that no matter what happens, some innocents will always get mixed up with those who should pay it.

 

I do worry about the mid priced market though.

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Anyway, what's your thought on lottery wins?

 

I have no interest or opinion. It's not a party political issue in any way so not really relevant apart from a clumsy set up for your own inevitable follow up question.

Why would winning the lottery be any different to making money from a property boom though, really?

Oh, you've got to ask it anyway. Crack on.

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I have no interest or opinion. It's not a party political issue in any way so not really relevant apart from a clumsy set up for your own inevitable follow up question.

 

Oh, you've got to ask it anyway. Crack on.

 

How does people making money out of their properties have any relevance then? They're not talking capital gains tax, just a tax for those that live in houses worth over £2m.

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Until Labour can explain the basics and it's pretty basic , when it kicks in, what the rate is, then "anyone with an ounce of intelligence" knows its purely grandstanding to wet lefties.

 

You've got to wonder how they worked out this will accrue £1.2 bn for the NHS as they can't explain how it will work.

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You've got to wonder how they worked out this will accrue £1.2 bn for the NHS as they can't explain how it will work.

 

Both parties are doing this kind of thing. I do love the gigantic amount of money the conservatives appear to have found for the NHS as well...like the above, no explanation from where though.

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You've got to wonder how they worked out this will accrue £1.2 bn for the NHS as they can't explain how it will work.

 

All parties are being vague, they always are prior to an election. Just like the Tories don't go into detail about the cuts they will make or even give a vague idea where they will find 8billion extra for the NHS. A tax based on property value wouldn't be hard to implement, neither would estimating how much it will make. You just don't bang on about it to the electorate.

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Kinda like this:

 

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/apr/23/tories-have-30bn-black-hole-in-spending-plans-says-ifs

 

Having said this, most disabled people know where these cuts will come from far too well.....what with us all being "shirkers"

 

Read that earlier, perhaps this might persuade people that the Tories might not be the most "responsible" party out there. Cutting even deeper and putting more people into poverty so those at the top can carry on profiting. Fanf*ckingtastic.

 

With borrowing as high as it is and the projected Tory cuts putting more people in danger, maybe it's time for a re-think. Honestly starting to think that Labour might be a better choice economically which I never thought I would say considering Ed Balls is in charge of their finances..

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Read that earlier, perhaps this might persuade people that the Tories might not be the most "responsible" party out there. Cutting even deeper and putting more people into poverty so those at the top can carry on profiting. Fanf*ckingtastic.

 

With borrowing as high as it is and the projected Tory cuts putting more people in danger, maybe it's time for a re-think. Honestly starting to think that Labour might be a better choice economically which I never thought I would say considering Ed Balls is in charge of their finances..

 

Well, with their current empty economic claims; that's not surprising. I just hope whoever gets in doesn't spend the entire next term blaming the previous government for every ill.

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Well, with their current empty economic claims; that's not surprising. I just hope whoever gets in doesn't spend the entire next term blaming the previous government for every ill.

 

Unfortunately mate, that's unavoidable. Easy to play the blame game in politics. Starting to remember why I f*cking despise politicians so much, self-serving bunch.

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Unfortunately mate, that's unavoidable. Easy to play the blame game in politics. Starting to remember why I f*cking despise politicians so much, self-serving bunch.

 

I have to admit, I totally agree with the leader of the greens; it's disgusting of Hauge to gloat over the cutting of the ILF, knocking of a blanket 20% of disability benefits and chucking people into poverty. These are all proven facts but either way, this image sums it all up:

 

https://scontent-bru.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtp1/v/t1.0-9/11181206_10152753538902217_6015006149174884386_n.jpg?oh=be97db192e5b29c0309486784a122f7d&oe=55E0CD94

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YouGov forecast of seats at GE

CON 270

LAB 277

LDEM 27

UKIP 3

SNP 50

 

Or from @Election4castUK:

 

Con 283

Lab 270

SNP 48

LD 24

DUP 8

UKIP 1

 

Like to think the second poll was right about UKIP but wrong about teh Tories

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YouGov forecast of seats at GE

CON 270

LAB 277

LDEM 27

UKIP 3

SNP 50

 

Or from @Election4castUK:

 

Con 283

Lab 270

SNP 48

LD 24

DUP 8

UKIP 1

 

Like to think the second poll was right about UKIP but wrong about teh Tories

 

Interesting. Still can't believe that Labour will end the night on more seats than the Conservatives and that the SNP will land almost ten times as many seats as they've had before.

 

The Independence referendum had that little bounce where they thought they were going to win but turned out to be a squib. I think it will soften a bit, and they'll come in with nearer 30.

 

Between 3 and 1 for UKIP is LOLZ enough for me. "The people's army" fighting the "establishment" with two ex-Tory MPs and an Investment Banker turned professional politian. Oh they are going to shake it up and no mistake.

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Interesting. Still can't believe that Labour will end the night on more seats than the Conservatives and that the SNP will land almost ten times as many seats as they've had before.

 

The Independence referendum had that little bounce where they thought they were going to win but turned out to be a squib. I think it will soften a bit, and they'll come in with nearer 30.

 

Between 3 and 1 for UKIP is LOLZ enough for me. "The people's army" fighting the "establishment" with two ex-Tory MPs and an Investment Banker turned professional politian. Oh they are going to shake it up and no mistake.

Its a good job we don't have a PR voting system otherwise UKIP would land twice as many seats as the SNP with their respective projected number of votes. Hoorah for the FPTP system ;)

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Its a good job we don't have a PR voting system otherwise UKIP would land twice as many seats as the SNP with their respective projected number of votes. Hoorah for the FPTP system ;)

Indeed. I might have over called it in November, though.

UKIP could very well see themselves getting SDP'ed, where they achieve a huge raft of votes for bugger all seats, say five or six.

 

Might kick up a bit of collective outrage akin to the "the 45%" stuff in Scotland.

 

Just think, Farage's ultimate legacy could end up being, finally, a proportional voting system, just about the most Lib Demmy thing you could imagine.

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There are too many variables and unknowns to establish what would happen in equilibrium; but if demand for £2m> properties fell because of the mansion tax; it follows their price also fall, thereby increasing the increase the supply of lower banded properties. Surely the result would be to offset the inflationary pressures you predict?

 

Of course, all this assumes that people only care about avoiding the tax. Never mind that it will be a fraction of their overall wealth and the windfall many have enjoyed over the last decade; never mind that many owners have an inherent preference to live in a nicer property in a more desirable location. Never mind all the other frictions to moving.

 

By the way, I don't resent anyone. That's an odd suggestion. I just don't have any sympathy for those who cry injustice. As a matter of principle, that's not all homeowners -the likes of you and your father-in-law, half clad, sweatily renovating a property do partly deserve any increase in its subsequent value :thumbup: :rolleyes:

 

By extension, I would be quite happy to differentiate between those who've made a substantial contribution to the value of the property eligible for the mansion tax rather than those who've just surfed the wave assuming a practical and wieldy mechanism existed.

 

I see what you did there!

 

IMHO, a Mansion Tax would be a good policy, but instead of making it a one off blitz against the very, very few it will affect and to protect the poor old Mrs Bufton-Tufton types who supposedly bought their gaff years ago, have but a few coppers under their matress and are going to be penalised by rampant Bolsheviks, then surely introducing it only on property transactions from now on would be a fairer method of implementation? The high end London markets will still be buoyant as those individuals have more money than they care about. And it would presumably protect Her Maj from having to dive into the the grandchildrens diamond fund too. :thumbup:

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if they had to do a revaluation of all homes, it is the only way to find out which hit the 2m level it will hit the poor as well as the wealthier.

In 2005 they did a revaluation in Wales, four times as many homes when up a band than down. That hit the poor as well as they rich.

They will not be able to just magic up who has those homes.

Imagine also the cost to this??????

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A good showing from William Hague on Question Time last night and I'm delighted at his announcement that the Tories will finally do something about the infamous West Lothian question if elected. I think that this policy will be a vote winner and they have caught the other parties on the hop with it. Harman labelled it back of a fag packet stuff, but it isn't as if the parties haven't had 38 years to consider it and in any event the basis for it is simple, that English matters be only voted on by elected English MPs. As the possibility of the SNP propping up a Labour administration looms ahead, it is timely for this to be brought out into the open now and each party given time to disclose their position on it.

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A good showing from William Hague on Question Time last night and I'm delighted at his announcement that the Tories will finally do something about the infamous West Lothian question if elected. I think that this policy will be a vote winner and they have caught the other parties on the hop with it. Harman labelled it back of a fag packet stuff, but it isn't as if the parties haven't had 38 years to consider it and in any event the basis for it is simple, that English matters be only voted on by elected English MPs. As the possibility of the SNP propping up a Labour administration looms ahead, it is timely for this to be brought out into the open now and each party given time to disclose their position on it.

Why can't there be a separate devolved English Parliament for English matters, or even regional, federalised, representation ? Why should the provinces have something that England doesn't have ?

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There could be a scenario where Scotland set their own competitive tax rates and then veto the rest of the UK doing the same thing.

 

Scottish mps should not have any say in issues that are devolved to their own parliament.

Edited by Nolan
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then surely introducing it only on property transactions from now on would be a fairer method of implementation?

 

Why can't I shake the feeling that something like this already exists? :frown:

 

Oh yeah, stamp duty!

 

I were to complete the purchase of a house for £2m on the day of the election, I'd be liable for £153,750 in SDLT.

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Can't help thinking that the English MPs for English laws is playing perfectly in to the SNP's hands.

 

They're not really interested in voting on matters that impact only England... but creating more divides between Scotland and England is just what they want. The more the laws, powers, policies, economies (and ultimately culture) of Scotland and England deviate, the more chance they stand of delivering independence.

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There could be a scenario where Scotland set their own competitive tax rates and then veto the rest of the UK doing the same thing.

 

Scottish mps shims not have any say in issues that are devolved to their own parliament.

 

And who would be surprised to see massive tax incentives introduced for those who invest in offshore wind and wave power?

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Can't help thinking that the English MPs for English laws is playing perfectly in to the SNP's hands.

 

They're not really interested in voting on matters that impact only England... but creating more divides between Scotland and England is just what they want. The more the laws, powers, policies, economies (and ultimately culture) of Scotland and England deviate, the more chance they stand of delivering independence.

 

Could go that way, or the argument over the border could fall on the side of "we have power over Scottish law, taxation & economic policy, education & health, but with the financial, defence and political security provided by being part of the UK - why demand independence?" That's without taking into account the potential for the SNP to have undue influence on UK government activity to the benefit of Scotland.

 

Only time will tell.

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There could be a scenario where Scotland set their own competitive tax rates and then veto the rest of the UK doing the same thing.

 

Scottish mps should not have any say in issues that are devolved to their own parliament.

 

You make it sound like the SNP are going to win a landslide victory. That only happens when you set FIFA to amateur.

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if they had to do a revaluation of all homes, it is the only way to find out which hit the 2m level it will hit the poor as well as the wealthier.

In 2005 they did a revaluation in Wales, four times as many homes when up a band than down. That hit the poor as well as they rich.

They will not be able to just magic up who has those homes.

Imagine also the cost to this??????

 

Why would they have to do a revaluation of all homes when the tax only effects houses worth £2mill+?

 

London would be hard work but targeting properties in the Southampton area for example would be a piece of p!ss, there are huge swathes of the city you can rule out in 5mins. Give someone a few days on Google Earth and Zoopla and they would probably get a pretty accurate idea.

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You make it sound like the SNP are going to win a landslide victory. That only happens when you set FIFA to amateur.

There's a massive overestimation of the SNP's potential power. Even with every single Scottish seat they won't stop Trident and if they vote down a first Labour Queen's speech then the government collapses and the Tories will either walk a second election, or form their own new administration. Well done Alex and Nicola.

 

They really won't have as much sway as they and others are making out.

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