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City - can we catch them up ?


alpine_saint

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What a bunch of miserable shysters you are.

Agreed

If we keep on winning there is NO reason why we cannot overtake City. It is improbable but our expectations have shifted for some from relegation to top 8 to top six to Europa League to Champions League. The logical next step is believing that second or FIRST is not beyond us. Unlikely, but if you go for fourth you win nothing but if you go to win every game( which is what we are doing) why not ?

Be positive people

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This I'm afraid.

 

I hate to say it but its plain old head-in-the-sand stuff to pretend that wasn't a crippling result for us. Arsenal gaining three points where its quite likely all their other rivals for the top four will get none whatsoever (In fact, Liverpool, United and Spurs have all already lost there, so its only us to go) is huge.

 

Take a look at the market on Betfair.

 

Arsenal have plummeted from 1.8 to 1.45 to finish top four on the back of that result alone, with us shooting up from around 2.1 to 2.65.

 

You can 'control the controllables' all you like but ultimately, us finishing top four is contingent on us getting to a specific points target, and that points target has just had three added onto it that if we do finish with the 72-73 or so that many of us thought was achievable, could make all the difference I'm sorry to say.

 

Catching City is pie-in-the-sky stuff.

 

fkin defeatist,

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I wasn't looking at catching them but did notice earlier...

We are closer to Man City than they are to Chelsea.

 

We are closer to Chelsea than spurs , west ham orliverpool are to us.

We , despite having hardest last 6 games, are two points clear at top of current form table, having gained 5 more points than Man C, 7 more than Man U in last 6 games.

 

Rather than starting to struggle without squad size and it being 'just a good start' we are still improving compared to top sides.

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It depends who City have after the Chelsea away game they've got coming up.

 

We've got two tough but winnable games in the league (Swansea - H, QPR - A) if we win both of those and city lose their next two games we'll go second...I'd say it's likely they won't get anything at Chelsea but I've no idea who they've got in the game after that.

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Interesting that if City are close enough to Chelsea on the final day, City at the very start of the season would have looked at their last game here as a banker for the three points. After all, Saints were favourites with most of the pundits to be struggling against relegation. Now increasingly they must be seeing it as a potential loss and hope that they have stitched up first place before the match.

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Interesting that if City are close enough to Chelsea on the final day, City at the very start of the season would have looked at their last game here as a banker for the three points. After all, Saints were favourites with most of the pundits to be struggling against relegation. Now increasingly they must be seeing it as a potential loss and hope that they have stitched up first place before the match.

 

City are the only side we've faced this season who comprehensively outplayed us. Every other defeat has been close run, and in most cases either unlucky or against the run of play. I'm not holding my breath.

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City are the only side we've faced this season who comprehensively outplayed us. Every other defeat has been close run, and in most cases either unlucky or against the run of play. I'm not holding my breath.

 

See, I really dont understand this.

 

My recollection is that we went 1-0 down against City, but conceeded the others by pushing so hard to get back into the game. The result looks like a thumping but flatters a bit.

 

In addition, they were the first "big" team we played, and are champions, and I reckon we got star-struck. Since then we've made mugs out of Chelsea, butt-f**ked Arsenal (which appears to have been forgotten) and humilliated the other side of Manky-town, in Manky-toewn. Our players are battle-hardened and no longer a bunch of metaphorical giggling teenage autograph-hunters.

 

I fancy us to get 3rd and push for second. We are more likely to screw up against the likes of QPR.

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See, I really dont understand this.

 

My recollection is that we went 1-0 down against City, but conceeded the others by pushing so hard to get back into the game. The result looks like a thumping but flatters a bit.

 

In addition, they were the first "big" team we played, and are champions, and I reckon we got star-struck. Since then we've made mugs out of Chelsea, butt-f**ked Arsenal (which appears to have been forgotten) and humilliated the other side of Manky-town, in Manky-toewn. Our players are battle-hardened and no longer a bunch of metaphorical giggling teenage autograph-hunters.

 

I fancy us to get 3rd and push for second. We are more likely to screw up against the likes of QPR.

 

Pelle missed a decent chance at 0-0, Schniderlin went off injured which meant moving Tony into midfield and Yoshida into central defence, before that we were a match for them. They did get two goals on the break in the last 10 minutes but second half they were very good.

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I'd love saints to come 2nd but its pointless really. For any chance of keeping our players we need top 4 (pref top 3, but top 4 would be fantastic). Anyone wanting teams right below us with deeper pockets and bigger squads to take points off the top 2 in a long old season is mad. Hope for 2nd and we could end up 7th. Tbh if Arsenal would have lost yo City I would have put our chances at 40% to make top 4, now they beat City I'd say we were 10% and that's just how I feel.

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Didn't they once say man would never walk on the moon?

 

I was told that the "mythical next level" couldn't be achieved. Something about requiring massive expenditure.

 

Hell yeah we can catch City, they've got CL and other Cup games and have already shown they're subject to the odd silly blip, we've only had one of those, away to Burnley. We'll need to win our tricky top half home games against the likes of Liverpool, Spurs, Swansea and West Ham though, as well as beating the bottom half, and Stoke away.

 

They've got Chelsea in the League next up, if we win against Swansea and they lose we'll be 2 points behind them.

 

Or to put it another way, if we can get to mid-May in the top 3 and with Man City only 2 points ahead of us and one game to go (away to them), we're in with a shout. :D

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Pelle missed a decent chance at 0-0, Schniderlin went off injured which meant moving Tony into midfield and Yoshida into central defence, before that we were a match for them. They did get two goals on the break in the last 10 minutes but second half they were very good.

 

Fair to say they were comfortable and settling for a 1-0 win before we got carried away and gave them a couple of easy ones. But equally they've been awful some weeks, mostly without Toure.

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Fair to say they were comfortable and settling for a 1-0 win before we got carried away and gave them a couple of easy ones. But equally they've been awful some weeks, mostly without Toure.

I expect the Ivory Coast will do pretty well in the ACON so could be a while before they see Toure back, and Bony for that matter.

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This I'm afraid.

 

I hate to say it but its plain old head-in-the-sand stuff to pretend that wasn't a crippling result for us. Arsenal gaining three points where its quite likely all their other rivals for the top four will get none whatsoever (In fact, Liverpool, United and Spurs have all already lost there, so its only us to go) is huge.

 

Take a look at the market on Betfair.

 

Arsenal have plummeted from 1.8 to 1.45 to finish top four on the back of that result alone, with us shooting up from around 2.1 to 2.65.

 

You can 'control the controllables' all you like but ultimately, us finishing top four is contingent on us getting to a specific points target, and that points target has just had three added onto it that if we do finish with the 72-73 or so that many of us thought was achievable, could make all the difference I'm sorry to say.

 

Catching City is pie-in-the-sky stuff.

 

You understand that the market on Betfair reflects the fact that there are loads of Arsenal fans out there, right? Just like Saints dominated the first 10 minutes at Old Trafford but were longer odds to win after kick off despite nearly taking the lead a few times, because all the Man U plastics woke up and bet on their team to win when they found out there was a match?

 

Basically what's happened is Arsenal fans have got carried away.

 

Best result for us yesterday was a draw, but then we're only 5 points behind City with them to play Chelsea away next (and us home to Swansea). They've got Liverpool, Man United, Spurs and Swansea to play away, our only top half aways are Chelsea, City and Stoke.

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It depends who City have after the Chelsea away game they've got coming up.

After Chelsea they have a seemingly ridiculously easy run of games up until April 11th when they play United. Their next game is home to Hull, the only potentially difficult fixture for City after Chelsea and before United is away to Liverpool on March 1st. We can catch them.

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I'd love saints to come 2nd but its pointless really. For any chance of keeping our players we need top 4 (pref top 3, but top 4 would be fantastic). Anyone wanting teams right below us with deeper pockets and bigger squads to take points off the top 2 in a long old season is mad. Hope for 2nd and we could end up 7th. Tbh if Arsenal would have lost yo City I would have put our chances at 40% to make top 4, now they beat City I'd say we were 10% and that's just how I feel.

 

Your post makes little sense logically at all. Our potential to finish in the top four relies not only on us picking up points from the main contenders for a top four place, but also on them taking points off each other. Beyond that, it is inevitable that there will be the odd upset caused by a lower down team beating one of the top teams.

 

Arsenal have dropped two points against the likes of Leicester, Everton and Hull and lost to Swansea and Stoke.

 

United have dropped two points against Sunderland, Burnley, West Brom, Spurs and Stoke and lost against Swansea and Leicester.

 

Unless the likes of those two turn draws into wins and eradicate losses to the lower teams, then their places are threatened by us if we carry on in the same vein of form that we have shown so far.

 

As The9 points out, it wasn't long ago that people were estimating that it would require expenditure of a couple of hundred million on players to have a team of enough quality to break through the glass ceiling into the exclusive preserve of the top four clubs. The general consensus was that beyond the top four, there were also other clubs against whom we couldn't possibly compete, so we could with luck be the best of the rest after Chelsea, City, United, Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool and perhaps Everton.

 

It is time to consider how much is down to the players and how much added value comes from having a really good manager, one who not only has great tactical nous, but is also able to get the most out of his players from increasing their self-belief and confidence as well as improving their ability. Maybe Koeman gives us an edge, much as Ferguson didn't have to have the most expensive players to be the most successful manager ever.

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Your post makes little sense logically at all. Our potential to finish in the top four relies not only on us picking up points from the main contenders for a top four place, but also on them taking points off each other. Beyond that, it is inevitable that there will be the odd upset caused by a lower down team beating one of the top teams.

 

Arsenal have dropped two points against the likes of Leicester, Everton and Hull and lost to Swansea and Stoke.

 

United have dropped two points against Sunderland, Burnley, West Brom, Spurs and Stoke and lost against Swansea and Leicester.

 

Unless the likes of those two turn draws into wins and eradicate losses to the lower teams, then their places are threatened by us if we carry on in the same vein of form that we have shown so far.

 

As The9 points out, it wasn't long ago that people were estimating that it would require expenditure of a couple of hundred million on players to have a team of enough quality to break through the glass ceiling into the exclusive preserve of the top four clubs. The general consensus was that beyond the top four, there were also other clubs against whom we couldn't possibly compete, so we could with luck be the best of the rest after Chelsea, City, United, Arsenal, Spurs, Liverpool and perhaps Everton.

 

It is time to consider how much is down to the players and how much added value comes from having a really good manager, one who not only has great tactical nous, but is also able to get the most out of his players from increasing their self-belief and confidence as well as improving their ability. Maybe Koeman gives us an edge, much as Ferguson didn't have to have the most expensive players to be the most successful manager ever.

 

but to remain a CL club you do have to spend mega money. we could finish 2nd and still have city, chelsea and/or united buying our players

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but to remain a CL club you do have to spend mega money. we could finish 2nd and still have city, chelsea and/or united buying our players

 

Yes, of course they will try to buy our star players. But if we achieved CL status, several things would have changed. There would be less reason for players to leave, although higher wages and the glory name are still significant factors. But then again, a team squad can only comprise so many players and there remain top quality players elsewhere as well as those we have. On the other hand, our position would enable us to be far more attractive as a destination for players coming in to the club and our revenue would increase massively from European CL qualification.

 

We will have proved to the likes of those players who left us last summer that not only are first team opportunities not guaranteed, but that they might have had as much chance of playing CL football had they remained here. And it also will be clear to those glory clubs that just perhaps it might be the case that a player of ours looks like the real thing only because of the players around him who make him look good.

 

But I return to the point that many sage posters assured us that it would be impossible to achieve CL football without the expenditure on players of a couple of hundred million. Weren't you one of them, come to think of it?

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Yes, of course they will try to buy our star players. But if we achieved CL status, several things would have changed. There would be less reason for players to leave, although higher wages and the glory name are still significant factors. But then again, a team squad can only comprise so many players and there remain top quality players elsewhere as well as those we have. On the other hand, our position would enable us to be far more attractive as a destination for players coming in to the club and our revenue would increase massively from European CL qualification.

 

We will have proved to the likes of those players who left us last summer that not only are first team opportunities not guaranteed, but that they might have had as much chance of playing CL football had they remained here. And it also will be clear to those glory clubs that just perhaps it might be the case that a player of ours looks like the real thing only because of the players around him who make him look good.

 

But I return to the point that many sage posters assured us that it would be impossible to achieve CL football without the expenditure on players of a couple of hundred million. Weren't you one of them, come to think of it?

ultimately, we wont be offering £100k a week (basic) to players

 

so most other points are not worth discussing.

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ultimately, we wont be offering £100k a week (basic) to players

 

so most other points are not worth discussing.

As I suspect that you were indeed one of those who were adamant that it would be nigh on impossible for us to break into the top four without massive expenditure, it starts to look as if that was not necessarily the case after all.

 

Now you are starting to place other caveats to the onward journey should we qualify and already indicating that the agenda for discussion will be along guidelines set by you.

 

So we won't be paying £100 grand a week wages to players, but then again, we still appear to have a team of players being paid substantially less than that now, and yet still mixing it with the big boys. It just goes to show what many believe to be true, that you can have the most expensive individual players, who might not be better as a whole than a cheaper team of competent players who play well together as a team. And as I said, a really good manager could make a substantial difference.

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As I suspect that you were indeed one of those who were adamant that it would be nigh on impossible for us to break into the top four without massive expenditure, it starts to look as if that was not necessarily the case after all.

 

Now you are starting to place other caveats to the onward journey should we qualify and already indicating that the agenda for discussion will be along guidelines set by you.

 

So we won't be paying £100 grand a week wages to players, but then again, we still appear to have a team of players being paid substantially less than that now, and yet still mixing it with the big boys. It just goes to show what many believe to be true, that you can have the most expensive individual players, who might not be better as a whole than a cheaper team of competent players who play well together as a team. And as I said, a really good manager could make a substantial difference.

 

We haven't got into the Champions League yet, and it is nigh on impossible to do what we've done. No one else has done it for a long while.

 

You not that impressed with our manager and players then and what they've achieved this season? I reckon they've exceeded all expectations, personally.

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As I suspect that you were indeed one of those who were adamant that it would be nigh on impossible for us to break into the top four without massive expenditure, it starts to look as if that was not necessarily the case after all.

 

Now you are starting to place other caveats to the onward journey should we qualify and already indicating that the agenda for discussion will be along guidelines set by you.

 

So we won't be paying £100 grand a week wages to players, but then again, we still appear to have a team of players being paid substantially less than that now, and yet still mixing it with the big boys. It just goes to show what many believe to be true, that you can have the most expensive individual players, who might not be better as a whole than a cheaper team of competent players who play well together as a team. And as I said, a really good manager could make a substantial difference.

 

Let's see where we finish.

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We haven't got into the Champions League yet, and it is nigh on impossible to do what we've done. No one else has done it for a long while.

 

You not that impressed with our manager and players then and what they've achieved this season? I reckon they've exceeded all expectations, personally.

 

How on earth did you get the impression that I was not impressed with what the players and managers have achieved so far this season? Don't bother to explain, as I doubt anybody is interested.

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Think some people are getting ahead of themselves. It really is a case of taking it one game at a time. I'm still quietly confident but, people won't like me saying this, the dream could be over in a short space of time. A run like November/December at any time will kill our chances. However, they were some tough games and hopefully we have learnt from it. It's difficult to know how we will deal with the pressure as it's not a position we've been in before. Feels strange to say it, but even finishing 5th or 6th will be disappointing now

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Let's see where we finish.

 

The thread is a hypothetical debate, so yes, it can only be concluded when either the season has finished, or it is mathematically impossible to catch Man City. In the meantime, for the benefit of the thread, a little bit of conjecture is permissable.

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How on earth did you get the impression that I was not impressed with what the players and managers have achieved so far this season? Don't bother to explain, as I doubt anybody is interested.

So is what we're trying to do "nigh on impossible" or not? I'd say it is, and we're doing brilliantly to still be in contention in January.

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They have Chelsea next...

 

I'm looking up, not down...

 

May as well make my first post a positive one ;)

 

Why not? It's certainly not outside the realms of possibility. From what we've seen on (and off) the pitch of late is a team which believes in itself and if they continue in the same vein, then why not? The biggest factor is probably going to be something which is not in our control - injuries. If we can get through the rest of the season without any more of them and get key players back, then 2nd or 3rd is a reality.

 

Whatever happens though, as a Saints fan of over 45 years, I'm loving every moment of this season - and I'm going to savour it as long as it lasts :lol:

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This I'm afraid.

 

I hate to say it but its plain old head-in-the-sand stuff to pretend that wasn't a crippling result for us. Arsenal gaining three points where its quite likely all their other rivals for the top four will get none whatsoever (In fact, Liverpool, United and Spurs have all already lost there, so its only us to go) is huge.

 

Take a look at the market on Betfair.

 

Arsenal have plummeted from 1.8 to 1.45 to finish top four on the back of that result alone, with us shooting up from around 2.1 to 2.65.

 

You can 'control the controllables' all you like but ultimately, us finishing top four is contingent on us getting to a specific points target, and that points target has just had three added onto it that if we do finish with the 72-73 or so that many of us thought was achievable, could make all the difference I'm sorry to say.

 

Catching City is pie-in-the-sky stuff.

 

fkin defeatist,

 

Hope you're right and I'm wrong my friend, but I'm still gutted after that result.

 

I must admit, I'm slightly worried that the players will be too, so at least we've got two weeks to get over it before our next Premiership match.

 

Hopefully by then the guttedness will have morphed into the snarling backs-to-the-wall mentality that has seen us through this season. COYS!

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So is what we're trying to do "nigh on impossible" or not? I'd say it is, and we're doing brilliantly to still be in contention in January.

 

As I suspect that you were indeed one of those who were adamant that it would be nigh on impossible for us to break into the top four without massive expenditure, it starts to look as if that was not necessarily the case after all.

 

Read what I had already written to Batman. It is written plainly enough and should be easy enough for even you to comprehend.

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I'd have thought by now you would realise something special is happening at Southampton. It shouldn't be possible to do what we've done since minus ten, but we have. Any of us that remember Poortvliett and Wotte should know what a truly remarkable journey we have been on from the depths we sank too.

Who would have thought back then that in 2015 we would sit third in the Premier League on merit?

No team has outclassed us, every game has been competitive and there is no team I wouldn't back us to beat in a one off match at the moment. Fully fit with the solidity, confidence and swagger we play with we, why not second? We can only win each game as it comes. I would hazard a guess that the only remaining games we wont be favourites at the bookies for will be Chelsea at the Bridge and City at the Etihad and we could have it rapped up by then. At the very least allow yourself to dream, this is the best its been too be a saints fan in my lifetime so if you cant enjoy it now you need to have look at yourself.

 

I have no doubt that this is something that is built to last. Keep the faith

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Read what I had already written to Batman. It is written plainly enough and should be easy enough for even you to comprehend.

Well we haven't finished top four yet, or qualified for the Champions League proper yet, and we are a long way away from establishing ourselves as a Champions League club competing and competitive over a number of seasons.

 

I don't think anyone said we couldn't challenge for top four in any given season - like Everton have done - that's certainly what I've always said. But that is a long way away from being an established Champions League club.

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Arsenal get their sh*t together for one game and its the end of the world. They still play Chelsea, Spurs, Liverpool and Manyoo.

 

And people accuse me of negativity.... :facepalm:

Don't confuse negativity with being sensible. If you had the power to chose Arsenal, Spurs, Utd and Liverpool's results against Chelsea and City are you telling me you'd give them wins until they were all on equal points? If we finished 6th or even 5th our squad would probably be pulled apart again, pundits would say "told you so, you can't get in the UCL as you're not a big team like Arsenal, Liverpool or Spurs" and its extremely unlikely we could do what we did last year where we make a massive profit on signings and all our new signings gel instantly. That was very fortunate. If we can lose a manager and 5 key players after finishing 8th, what do you think will happen if we finish 5th or 6th. The best chance we have of moving forward as a club is to finish 4th. Hoping for the biggest clubs right below us to gain ground on us is crazy. Unless you think we can catch Chelsea and you are 99% sure we will make the UCL then you're mad.

 

Momentum is dangerous and Arsenal have a boost now. What really worries me is that Arsenal are famous for getting in the UCL without beating top teams. If they've finally worked out how to do that then we could really struggle.

 

Finally, how will you feel if Arsenal beat us to 4th by a point or two? Then we lose key players again.

 

If you win the lottery you don't go down the bookies and put it on a horse...

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Well we haven't finished top four yet, or qualified for the Champions League proper yet, and we are a long way away from establishing ourselves as a Champions League club competing and competitive over a number of seasons.

 

I don't think anyone said we couldn't challenge for top four in any given season - like Everton have done - that's certainly what I've always said. But that is a long way away from being an established Champions League club.

 

Who said anything about being an established CL Club, apart from you just there? Let's get up there first before debating how we could remain there. And excuse me if my memory of you always saying that we could challenge for the top four is a bit weak. My recollection is of you poo-pooing the very idea that we could even finish above Everton.

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Don't confuse negativity with being sensible. If you had the power to chose Arsenal, Spurs, Utd and Liverpool's results against Chelsea and City are you telling me you'd give them wins until they were all on equal points?

 

Alpine seems content to take it match by match. You're the one who is wringing his hands on the basis of just one result believing that it is detrimental to our chances that Arsenal beat City.

 

If we finished 6th or even 5th our squad would probably be pulled apart again, pundits would say "told you so, you can't get in the UCL as you're not a big team like Arsenal, Liverpool or Spurs" and its extremely unlikely we could do what we did last year where we make a massive profit on signings and all our new signings gel instantly. That was very fortunate. If we can lose a manager and 5 key players after finishing 8th, what do you think will happen if we finish 5th or 6th.

 

If 5 left because we finished 8th, don't tell me, if we finished 5th or 6th, 7 or 8 will leave. If we finished 3rd, surely the whole squad will want away. :rolleyes: And even if we did lose a player or two, why should it necessarily be that we couldn't repeat the success in replacing those players at a profit and getting at least as good players in? We have recent precedent of that situation. Losing Koeman would be the bigger blow. The higher we go, the more chance we have of keeping players and attracting better players to come here.

 

 

The best chance we have of moving forward as a club is to finish 4th. Hoping for the biggest clubs right below us to gain ground on us is crazy. Unless you think we can catch Chelsea and you are 99% sure we will make the UCL then you're mad.

If the clubs below us beat the teams above us, they don't gain ground on us if we keep on winning. But if that happened, we gain ground on the teams above us, or didn't you spot that possibility? Go easy on the crazy or mad stuff; I know how hard it is for most of us to believe where we are and where we could be, but we are here currently on merit.

 

Momentum is dangerous and Arsenal have a boost now. What really worries me is that Arsenal are famous for getting in the UCL without beating top teams. If they've finally worked out how to do that then we could really struggle.

 

We have momentum too, don't we? Why can't we work out how to get into the UCL without beating top teams too? Or is it only Wenger who has the intelligence to work that out? I assume that the way to do that, is to beat the teams below you and hope that the other top teams take points off each other. What's your theory?

 

Finally, how will you feel if Arsenal beat us to 4th by a point or two? Then we lose key players again.

Que sera sera. It will have been a magnificent achievement

 

If you win the lottery you don't go down the bookies and put it on a horse...

 

No, you buy the horse.

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It could be that we need to catch City to get Champions League.

 

If ManUtd or Spurs take the 4th spot and then Arsenal and Liverpool win their respective European competitions, they'll only be two CL places up for grabs via the league. (I stand to be corrected, if the UEFA rules now allow for more than 4 teams in the CL from one country?)

 

:-/

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City are fulfilling a vital task simply by giving us something to chase as opposed to us just looking over our shoulders. I don't think we will actually catch up with them. But aiming to catch them my give us what we are looking for.

 

A good point which could be a great factor in pursuit of a CL place.

 

Having thought eighth was achievable at the start of the season, I'm loving it that that looks a minimum place we will get now and it would be great to be above all the defectors at the end of the season and snatch a CL group auto spot.

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