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EU referendum


Wade Garrett

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German business leaders are starting to suggest this will happen if we vote leave

 

 

 

Britain votes to leave the EU.

 

Negotiations begin on Britain's new relationship with the EU.

Will look something like this

 

The UK offers to maintain at least part of its contribution to the EU budget - at present about £8.5bn a year including rebates and EU support for British agriculture and research.

 

In return, Britain withdraws from the free movement of people requirements but allows for a lesser "free movement of labour" which allows for workers from the EU to come to the UK with a firm job offer. The U.K. Maintains access to the Single Market

 

 

 

So, appears that it is not a condition of access to the single market that we have uncontrolled immigration

 

Brexit is going to happen!!!!

Edited by Batman
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So, appears that it is not a condition of access to the single market that we have uncontrolled immigration

 

Currently, if we were to be subject to the same conditions as EFTA countries, post Brexit, we would be bound by the free movement requirements of the EU. What you have posted is a theoretical discussion point, ( if it is really being suggested ), which presumably all remaining EU members would have to ratify.

Edited by badgerx16
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Wishful thinking aside, if people seek to understand what leading opinion in Germany REALLY thinks about the subject of a possible Brexit then why not take the trouble to read what their Finance Minister - Wolfgang Schäuble - has to say on the subject: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-brexit-would-see-uk-excluded-from-single-market-german-finance-minister-warns-a7074341.html

 

I see that great play has been made about the importance of some overheated discussion programme on ITV and which side is percieved to have 'won' it. This is fine, but perhaps some on here might want to reflect on the fact that the BARB organisation reports that only 3 million people were viewing (more people were watching DIY SOS on the BBC) and methinks that most of those are the type who have already made up their minds anyway. So much ado about nothing then?

 

I can't be the only person on here to find all these complaints about the unfairness of the government deciding to extend the deadline for voter registration entertaining because - if the situation were reversed - and 'Vote Leave' considered that their supporters made up the majority of these late comers then they would be the first to complain about how scandalous it is that people were being denied a opportunity to vote!

 

This type of rank hypocrisy both amuses and annoys in equal measure. It seems to me that anyone who even pretends to care about the democratic process really should welcome the fact that more of their fellow citizens are deing offered a chance to have their say - however negligent they were in not registering earlier.

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German business leaders are starting to suggest this will happen if we vote leave

 

 

 

Britain votes to leave the EU.

 

Negotiations begin on Britain's new relationship with the EU.

Will look something like this

 

The UK offers to maintain at least part of its contribution to the EU budget - at present about £8.5bn a year including rebates and EU support for British agriculture and research.

 

In return, Britain withdraws from the free movement of people requirements but allows for a lesser "free movement of labour" which allows for workers from the EU to come to the UK with a firm job offer. The U.K. Maintains access to the Single Market

 

 

 

So, appears that it is not a condition of access to the single market that we have uncontrolled immigration

 

Brexit is going to happen!!!!

 

Where do I find this suggestion because it seems bollix to me

 

What about free movement of our citizens

 

What about other countries will they not want it

 

I expect this No single market access for UK after Brexit, Wolfgang Schäuble says

In Der Spiegel interview German finance minister rules out Britain’s chances of enjoying bloc benefits from outside EU

 

But your suggestion would be good

 

There are so many Foreign Companies / Banks that are going to leave or not come at all that unemployment is going to rise.

 

Look at Toyota in Derby the least profitable factory of theirs in the world is not going to survive surely if costs go up say 10% caused by falling pound possible tariffs extra costs for administration dealing with the single market.

 

I really am really worried about the ramifications for you and me and our families of BREXIT that I am not sleeping that well and on here at 6am but I do understand your concerns which do not have easy solutions without causing major distress to many people.

 

Saw this tweet which I think is interesting from Boris' ex comms @Guto_Harri 'other than terror attack no bigger threat to London

 

Just look at this http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

 

Managing the world's population is going to be difficult with co-operation

 

With all the police have to deal with on the terror front in France hooligans are going to be dealt with pretty severely I would reckon what do you think

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the post Brexit deal will not be decided by Wolfgang Schäuble

 

he is just playing the Tune that the UK 'must' stay or else

 

I think he is saying something which is quite obvious to people with common sense we wont be in the single market if we leave the EU

 

But in two weeks we will be able to start seeing who is right on this subject

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Well sometimes I think the influence of the German government in EU28 decision making process can be somewhat overstated - Europe afterall is a big place. But there again the German Chancellor and Finance Minister are not exactly powerless figuars in the 'corridors of power' either are they?

 

If Wolfgang Schäuble tells you that our trading future with the EU is imperiled then he is probably worth listening to.

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Well sometimes I think the influence of the German government in EU28 decision making process can be somewhat overstated - Europe afterall is a big place. But there again the German Chancellor and Finance Minister are not exactly powerless figuars in the 'corridors of power' either are they?

 

If Wolfgang Schäuble tells you that our trading future with the EU is imperiled then he is probably worth listening to.

 

NO ITS NOT all these posters cannot possibly be wrong with their clear and incisive analysis dismissing reasoned and well researched reporting by the world's top economists politicians and business people.

 

by the way I found this ironic

 

'The EU referendum hasn’t been short of its absurdities, but Vote Leave’s event at the DCS distribution centre in Stratford-on-Avon must be a strong contender for the most surreal. Boris, Michael Gove and Gisela Stuart were all guests of warehouse owner Denys C Shortt, who has declared himself a strong supporter of Vote Leave. Shortt introduced the event by telling his 150 or so employees that he was concerned about high levels of immigration and appeared surprised to be greeted with only lukewarm applause. He shouldn’t have been. Stratford has extremely low levels of unemployment and he struggles to get any Brits to work for him at the wages he is prepared to offer. So many of his staff are Polish immigrants that signs throughout the warehouse are written in both Polish and English. The only sign that wasn’t written in Polish was the one saying “Smile Please”'

 

A common situation in lots of towns in the Southern half of England where unemployment is low many jobs are filled by EU citizens as they are the only ones to apply I know my local post office is run very efficiently by a couple of charming Polish ladies one an ex bank clerk the other an ex air hostess

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Look at Toyota in Derby the least profitable factory of theirs in the world is not going to survive surely if costs go up say 10% caused by falling pound possible tariffs extra costs for administration dealing with the single market.

A quick example of why the remain camp's over-reliance on economic arguments appears to be failing. International trade and finance is extremely complicated and most people have trouble understanding it.

 

Toyota is not a British company, it is owned in Japan. Therefore, if the pound does fall, then Toyota's costs in it's plant in the UK, when converted to it's "home" currency and compared with it's cost of production at it's various other plants around the world, will be reduced, making it's UK production more competitive. The remittance of sterling-derived profits from the UK operation to HO, which would at face value be worth less in Yen terms, is a different matter, and is routinely managed in very creative ways by most global corporations.

 

Using the Derby plant as your example, the only time it would be a problem would be if sales were to fall, and there is no evidence that would happen.

 

My own opinion (and it is only an opinion) is that IF we vote to leave, and IF there is a fall in the value of sterling then that fall would be relatively short-lived, and UK factories such as Toyota Derby will be relatively unaffected.

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A quick example of why the remain camp's over-reliance on economic arguments appears to be failing. International trade and finance is extremely complicated and most people have trouble understanding it.

 

Toyota is not a British company, it is owned in Japan. Therefore, if the pound does fall, then Toyota's costs in it's plant in the UK, when converted to it's "home" currency and compared with it's cost of production at it's various other plants around the world, will be reduced, making it's UK production more competitive. The remittance of sterling-derived profits from the UK operation to HO, which would at face value be worth less in Yen terms, is a different matter, and is routinely managed in very creative ways by most global corporations.

 

Using the Derby plant as your example, the only time it would be a problem would be if sales were to fall, and there is no evidence that would happen.

 

My own opinion (and it is only an opinion) is that IF we vote to leave, and IF there is a fall in the value of sterling then that fall would be relatively short-lived, and UK factories such as Toyota Derby will be relatively unaffected.

 

Over 85% of the cars made at Burnaston are exported to Europe. Do you think that would continue?

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the post Brexit deal will not be decided by Wolfgang Schäuble

 

he is just playing the Tune that the UK 'must' stay or else

 

What is instructive is to read the entire article in the Independent, which goes on to say that Schäuble admits that the implications of a Brexit would be severe, as other member states could very well follow suit, and in my opinion the whole enterprise in its current form would collapse. He talks of the necessity to consider reforms and reductions of bureaucracy should we leave and yet had Brussels had the prescience to have realised the implications of not acceding to the demands that the UK wanted addressed during Cameron's failed negotiations, then it is possible that the referendum would have been far more likely to have resulted in a Remain vote.

 

Now as R Day approaches, panic is setting in and they are showing themselves to be as liable as the Remain leadership to believe that the British people will be cowed into submission by a campaign of fear. They ought to have taken advice from their Ambassador, or Dave over the efficacy of this approach, as it seems to seriously misjudge the British character. We don't take kindly to threats and blackmail and are liable to respond with the two-fingered salute.

 

Our PM has belatedly realised that Campaign Fear is counter-productive, so I don't pay too much attention to Germany's Finance Minister, who is probably likely to be as economical with the truth as our own Chancellor of the Exchequer.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36505735

 

The debate now completely jumps the shark here.

 

Dyson is arguing as a positive the very thing the German car manufacturers will be banging on Angela's door to stop and the Leave campaign say will definitely not happen. Meanwhile the remain team are using the "he was wrong about the Euro" line against him.

 

Brilliant.

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There is no logic whatsoever in that conclusion.

But everybody's saying that things will happen exactly as the Germans are saying... What about the Dutch, or the French, or the Spanish? What if they have different thoughts?

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Schauble is the archetypal personification of much that a lot of leave voters hate about the EU. He's a dogmatist and a zealot with minimal respect for democracy. He is exactly what Boris Johnson was talking about when he alluded to Germany seeking control of Europe through nefarious means.

 

Anyway, given the abysmal recent efforts of the remain campaign I don't think a few crusty utterances from Schauble are going to prevent a leave vote.

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I find it quite remarkable that one person on here is still employing the 'Project Fear' line as some kind of critism of those he disagrees with, without any apparent comprehension that the Brexit case he so enthusiastically supports is almost entirly founded on the fear of immigration. Not for the first time the utter lack of self-awareness here is staggering.

 

I saw a clip of Farage on TV this morning blaming immigrants for just about every problem that our society faces - from the cost of mortgages to waits to see your GP. He has also predicted that mass rape awaits our women if we fail to vote his way. If that is not a cynical attempt to play on the fears and prejudices of ordinary people then I don't know what is - indeed I never thought that I would see political debate in this nation sink quite this far into the gutter.

 

The Brexit campaign has been described as a "squalid" one - that seems a accurate enough descriptIon I think.

 

.

Edited by CHAPEL END CHARLIE
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But everybody's saying that things will happen exactly as the Germans are saying... What about the Dutch, or the French, or the Spanish? What if they have different thoughts?

 

The whole politic is determined by the power of the veto. To get any new deal through you would need to get positive agreement amongst all 27 countries so even if some other countries are in favour it only needs a couple of dissenters to scupper the deal.

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The whole politic is determined by the power of the veto. To get any new deal through you would need to get positive agreement amongst all 27 countries so even if some other countries are in favour it only needs a couple of dissenters to scupper the deal.

I know, that's why we never get our way and we are better off out making our own decisions.

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I find it quite remarkable that one person on here is still employing the 'Project Fear' line as some kind of critism of those he disagrees with, without any apparent comprehension that the Britex case he so enthusiastically supports is almost entirly founded on the fear of immigration. Not for the first time the utter lack of self-awareness is staggering.

 

I saw a clip of Farage on TV this morning blaming immigrants for just about every problem that our society faces - from the cost of mortgages to waits to see your GP. He has also predicted that mass rape awaits our women if we fail to vote his way. If that is not a cynical attempt to play on the fears and prejudices of ordinary people then I don't know what is - indeed I never thought that I would see political debate in this nation sink quite this far into the gutter.

 

The Brexit campaign has been described as a "squalid" one - that seems a fair enough term I think.

 

it's not us mate. but about every opinion poll, media outlet and news station that is seeing Leave side winning.

the arguments from Cameron to to osborne and even sturgeon (who know shares a stage with the evil tories) is just plain negative.

 

some German minister is not going to change that and in fact, will probably help the leave side as his comments represent many things that are wrong with the whole EU piece. 'We will punish you if you don't do as you are told'...how's about, f-off mate, you need us more than we need you.

 

the more you hear from Blair and Izzard the better IMO.

Edited by Batman
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it's not us mate. but about every opinion poll, media outlet and news station that is seeing Leave side winning.

the arguments from Cameron to to osborne and even sturgeon (who know shares a stage with the evil tories) is just plain negative.

 

some German minister is not going to change that and in fact, will probably help the leave side as his comments represent many things that are wrong with the whole EU piece. 'We will punish you if you don't do as you are told'...how's about, f-off mate, you need us more than we need you.

 

the more you hear from Blair and Izzard the better IMO.

 

If you come on here and post some obscure link indicating that Europe is about to roll over and have its tummy tickled should we vote to leave the EU, then you are bound to invite a more realistic reply. It is not a case of "punishment", but rather a real world assessment by a leading German politician of what might well happen to our trading economy in the future.

 

Dreams of the most amicable 'divorce' in all history are just that - dreams.

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Just hearing a debate on LBC and the general consensus from all sides participating is that the government and the remain side have peaked too soon and are losing

 

they have nothing left to debate given their economic arguments have not had the desired impact.

 

it is expected that it will get very personal with far more elaborate claims coming out from them in the next week.

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it's not us mate. but about every opinion poll, media outlet and news station that is seeing Leave side winning.

the arguments from Cameron to to osborne and even sturgeon (who know shares a stage with the evil tories) is just plain negative.

 

some German minister is not going to change that and in fact, will probably help the leave side as his comments represent many things that are wrong with the whole EU piece. 'We will punish you if you don't do as you are told'...how's about, f-off mate, you need us more than we need you.

 

the more you hear from Blair and Izzard the better IMO.

Germany need us more than we need them? You sure about that?

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Not much use if your choices are limited. Robinson Crusoe had absolute sovereignty over all he surveyed and a fat lot of good it did him.

Something tell me he didn't have the worlds 5th biggest economy though. So that's a pointless post.

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I think that even the most ardent remainer will admit that they haven't played their hand very well. Frankly I expected a lot better from them.

 

There isn't any admission from our most ardent Remainian on here that they haven't played their campaign very well. All we have from him are accusations that the Leave campaign is squalid because it concentrates on the electorates' worries that uncontrolled mass immigration from the EU has effected the ability of the UK to maintain the Health Service, the provision of adequate school places and housing. It cannot be countenanced that there is also consideration from the Brexit voters that they believe that economically and financially they will in the longer term be better off outside of the sclerotic EU, and that they will vote for a Brexit because they are acting on behalf of what they consider to be the best interests of their children and grandchildren's futures. No, it's only about immigration, not the restoration of the Sovereignty of our own democratically elected Parliament or the supremacy of our own legal system.

 

I agree, you and I both expected a lot better of them. Our PM and Chancellor of the Exchequer in particular have pursued a squalid campaign and as a consequence are both hugely distrusted by the electorate. This isn't a satisfactory situation post Referendum that either should continue in their current positions if their credibility is so badly damaged.

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Something tell me he didn't have the worlds 5th biggest economy though. So that's a pointless post.

 

 

Actually the whole consideration of the value of wealth is fundamental to the story of Robinson Crusoe.

 

We used to have the largest economy in the world but a lot has declined since then. With the recent fall in the value of sterling I doubt that were even fifth today. It's not that long ago that we were fourth, just above Italy. But all this is history, it's where we shall be in the future that matters.

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There isn't any admission from our most ardent Remainian on here that they haven't played their campaign very well. All we have from him are accusations that the Leave campaign is squalid because it concentrates on the electorates' worries that uncontrolled mass immigration from the EU has effected the ability of the UK to maintain the Health Service, the provision of adequate school places and housing. It cannot be countenanced that there is also consideration from the Brexit voters that they believe that economically and financially they will in the longer term be better off outside of the sclerotic EU, and that they will vote for a Brexit because they are acting on behalf of what they consider to be the best interests of their children and grandchildren's futures. No, it's only about immigration, not the restoration of the Sovereignty of our own democratically elected Parliament or the supremacy of our own legal system.

 

I agree, you and I both expected a lot better of them. Our PM and Chancellor of the Exchequer in particular have pursued a squalid campaign and as a consequence are both hugely distrusted by the electorate. This isn't a satisfactory situation post Referendum that either should continue in their current positions if their credibility is so badly damaged.

 

Wes, you cannot be serious when you say that you believe that Britain would be stronger outside the EU, no matter what you might think about it as an institution. Whatever is holding us back has nothing to do with the EU.

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Actually the whole consideration of the value of wealth is fundamental to the story of Robinson Crusoe.

 

We used to have the largest economy in the world but a lot has declined since then. With the recent fall in the value of sterling I doubt that were even fifth today. It's not that long ago that we were fourth, just above Italy. But all this is history, it's where we shall be in the future that matters.

So why is the pound still 20% stronger to the euro compared to four years ago.?

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Wes, you cannot be serious when you say that you believe that Britain would be stronger outside the EU, no matter what you might think about it as an institution. Whatever is holding us back has nothing to do with the EU.

 

Makes you wonder why New Zealand doesn't join a union with Australia or Japan with China . How on earth do hundreds of independent countries manage without others holding their hands and setting their immigration levels . These independent countries must be dangerous places

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I'm thinking that "concentrates on the electorates' worries" is a rather novel piece of code for shamelessly playing on the most basic of all Human fears and latent predudices. Further, it was not me who first described the disgraceful tactics employed by the likes of Nigel Farage (and his assorted hangers-on) as "squalid" but rather former Conservative Prime Minister John Major who someone on here seems to have voted for.

 

You remember John Major don't you - the Tory who once described three of his more treacherous eurosceptic cabinet members as "bastards"?

Edited by CHAPEL END CHARLIE
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So why is the pound still 20% stronger to the euro compared to four years ago.?

 

For your information, the pound fell 1.57% on Friday - just because of one polling result. The kind of hammering our currency, and economy, may be in for in two weeks time (should you get your way) really should be quite enough to worry everyone reading this I would have thought.

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I work importing fruit and veg from countries around the world. Apples from France, citrus from Spain and Morocco, melons from Brazil & Costa Rica, banana from Ecuador and Colombia. We have a defra price unit phone up one a week asking sales values to put in place the taxable value for the fruit and veg in a protectionist way. Import a new Zealand Apple 1 day before the 1st of April and you'll get taxed heavily, even though transport costs make the prices between nz and euro fruit non comparable.

 

Our market won't be effected if we leave. With Russia still embargo ing fresh produce from Europe the market could not cope with losing our trade as well. European farmers would collapse and that would not sit well with the French especially.

 

For our industry it makes no sense to remain.

 

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

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Actually the whole consideration of the value of wealth is fundamental to the story of Robinson Crusoe.

 

We used to have the largest economy in the world but a lot has declined since then. With the recent fall in the value of sterling I doubt that were even fifth today. It's not that long ago that we were fourth, just above Italy. But all this is history, it's where we shall be in the future that matters.

true and that almost most our biggest export companys are foreign owned and its so easy for them to move over to the mainland ,making us slide down from 5 th biggest economy with the knock on effect of less jobs and money for nhs and schools.but the leave lot dream we are going to somehow go into a land of milk and honey even thow we are 1.5 trillion in debt at the moment .that means higher interest rates for them to hold sterling . i,m sure if it was so easy in the land of milk and honey of the leave people..greece would have left ages ago.
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For your information, the pound fell 1.57% on Friday - just because of one polling result. The kind of hammering our currency, and economy, may be in for in two weeks time (should you get your way) really should be quite enough to worry everyone reading this I would have thought.
yes i,ve read that from the financial markets report that if we leave they expect sterling to fall to 1.15 to the dollar and may go lower unless we get trade deals with are biggest market which will massively drop from 1.54 of a few months ago.
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Our market won't be effected if we leave. With Russia still embargo ing fresh produce from Europe the market could not cope with losing our trade as well. European farmers would collapse and that would not sit well with the French especially.

 

For our industry it makes no sense to remain.

 

Economics 101.

 

If any currency becomes devalued then it follows that imports - including fruit and veg - will become more expensive then won't they? So please expand on why you feel that markets "won't be effected" by Bretix because you don't appear to be making any sense.

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For your information, the pound fell 1.57% on Friday - just because of one polling result. The kind of hammering our currency, and economy, may be in for in two weeks time (should you get your way) really should be quite enough to worry everyone reading this I would have thought.

And it recovered the following Monday.

 

It's not even anywhere near a 1 year low. (currently at 1.42 vs the dollar. Low is 1.36)

 

The euro has been as low as 1.06 in recent years. Its currently at 1.27.

 

As an importer, I know from first hand experience that the currency stories are scaremongering.

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Economics 101.

 

If any currency becomes devalued then it follows that imports - including fruit and veg - will become more expensive then won't they? So please expand on why you feel that markets "won't be effected" by Bretix because you don't appear to be making any sense.

My Moroccan citrus is in healthy competition with the Spanish. Their growing seasons are the same. The fruit is interchangeable, we buy at the best value. If Europe forces taxes on us on the Spanish citrus, we buy from Morocco (where labour is cheaper anyway). Spain won't want to price themselves out of the market. So it won't become more expensive.

 

The prices of fruit and veg had stayed pretty stable in the last 30 years. The only thing that really effects the price is a disease crop and decreased yield.

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As I'm writing this on Saturday afternoon how exactly you know what will happen to Sterling next Monday is something of a mystery!

 

Are you 'Mystic Meg' in disguise?

Thought you meant last weekend where it dropped on the Friday and went to a higher point the following Monday. But still it's been 1.36 this year 1.42 makes no odds.

 

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

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Thought you meant last weekend where it dropped on the Friday and went to a higher point the following Monday. But still it's been 1.36 this year 1.42 makes no odds.

 

Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk

 

I put it to you that if one (possibly rogue) poll can result in Sterling losing 1.57% of its value in a afternoon, then this is a sign of 'things to come' should we actualy vote to leave the EU. By the way, HSBC are predicting that Sterling may fall 20% on a pro Brexit vote. http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-brexit-hsbc-idUKKCN0VX0QJ

 

But this is not just a matter of for currency exchanges of course, those reading this who have invested in stocks and shares might want to keep a very close eye on developments because this could become bloody before too long. This is not Project Fear - this is project 'Take Care of Yourself'.

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I know how much imported food I buy. Unfortunately I don't export any cars to offset the increased costs.

 

Cause it's all about you isn't it? What a Tory attitude .

 

What happened to the economy when leaving the ERM devaulded the £ . Not what happened to your shopping bill , try and think of the rest of the country , what happened to the economy ?

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