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22 minutes ago, aintforever said:

Think Bozo is just being over-cautious because he fucked up first time round.

Yes indeed but I think there is a sense that they don't want to have to have another lockdown so they want this one to last as long as possible.

 

There's also a headline from The Times this morning,

"Vaccines likely to be slowing spread of Covid, scientists believe"

Er, yeah, you'd bloody well hope so.

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1 minute ago, Whitey Grandad said:

Yes indeed but I think there is a sense that they don't want to have to have another lockdown so they want this one to last as long as possible.

 

There's also a headline from The Times this morning,

"Vaccines likely to be slowing spread of Covid, scientists believe"

Er, yeah, you'd bloody well hope so.

What are we going to do when the third wave hits end of the summer like we were told it would?

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4 hours ago, Whitey Grandad said:

Schools, shops, even restaurants being open would not have made any difference

 

4 hours ago, Whitey Grandad said:

We have just had the most severe lockdown in the world

Both statements quite unequivocally not true. I really can't add anything more than that.

3 hours ago, whelk said:

All evidence now (and then if they dared share) would indicate the vaccines work. Which is my point

Of course they do, I've never tried to claim otherwise. Airbags in cars work but if you're doing 65, you're probably best off using your brakes as much as possible before you hit the wall. What we're seeing now is the result of a fairly tough lockdown AND vaccines combined. Don't forget we'd reached our target of giving the most vulnerable a first dose by February 15th but even with the help of a month's lockdown we were still seeing 500 dead bodies a day.

 

We needed both. Now we're on top of the situation we're easing the lockdown. I really don't see what there is to be upset about. You can share all the links you like about the Indian, South Africa, ancient Mayan variant or whatever you want. Unless they actually start to change government policy they're just clickbait.

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17 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

 

Both statements quite unequivocally not true. I really can't add anything more than that.

Of course they do, I've never tried to claim otherwise. Airbags in cars work but if you're doing 65, you're probably best off using your brakes as much as possible before you hit the wall. What we're seeing now is the result of a fairly tough lockdown AND vaccines combined. Don't forget we'd reached our target of giving the most vulnerable a first dose by February 15th but even with the help of a month's lockdown we were still seeing 500 dead bodies a day.

 

We needed both. Now we're on top of the situation we're easing the lockdown. I really don't see what there is to be upset about. You can share all the links you like about the Indian, South Africa, ancient Mayan variant or whatever you want. Unless they actually start to change government policy they're just clickbait.

25 million had had their first dose when Boris made a point of claiming that it was lockdown not vaccines. Whilst not giving any evidence in terms of numbers of how many of those many millions were still contracting Covid and going to hospital.  To accept what he said was folly. Of course lockdowns work but he made a point of saying it wasn’t the vaccines which is bunkum

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1 hour ago, whelk said:

25 million had had their first dose when Boris made a point of claiming that it was lockdown not vaccines. Whilst not giving any evidence in terms of numbers of how many of those many millions were still contracting Covid and going to hospital.  To accept what he said was folly. Of course lockdowns work but he made a point of saying it wasn’t the vaccines which is bunkum

It's really not that difficult to comprehend.

If everyone is locked down, people aren't mixing together so the virus isn't able to spread - see also lockdown 1 & 2 for further examples!

During a full lockdown, there is no opportunity for the vaccines to show what they are able to do as the virus isn't spreading!  Boris wasn't claiming they don't work, merely that they didn't have the opportunity to do so!

If you had a malaria vaccine but then spent the entire summer sitting in your back garden in Southampton, would you claim it was the vaccine that stopped you getting malaria or the thousands of miles between you and the disease?

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8 hours ago, Whitey Grandad said:

We don't know that. Schools, shops, even restaurants being open would not have made any difference. We have just had the most severe lockdown in the world and it's not over yet. How much of it was really necessary?

That's ridiculous. In France people had to fill in permits to go the shop, and then got fined if they didn't go to the nearest. They could only venture a very short distance from home to for a walk. We've had families having outings to costco, and people going out on nice long bike rides. Our lockdown has been lighter than theirs by a mile. Other countries have had actual curfews from early evening, but we've had 24hr shops still open. Sure, it's been crap, but don't try and argue that we've had has been the most severe lockdown in the world. 

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47 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

If you had a malaria vaccine but then spent the entire summer sitting in your back garden in Southampton, would you claim it was the vaccine that stopped you getting malaria or the thousands of miles between you and the disease?

Neither. But would you still advocate a lockdown?

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Just now, egg said:

That's ridiculous. In France people had to fill in permits to go the shop, and then got fined if they didn't go to the nearest. They could only venture a very short distance from home to for a walk. We've had families having outings to costco, and people going out on nice long bike rides. Our lockdown has been lighter than theirs by a mile. Other countries have had actual curfews from early evening, but we've had 24hr shops still open. Sure, it's been crap, but don't try and argue that we've had has been the most severe lockdown in the world. 

Not just my view. You might not like to hear it but an Oxford study has looked into it. Don’t forget that length of time is a factor. This is what happens when you isolate people from the world outside.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-worlds-sixth-toughest-lockdown-23554938

”Compared to EU countries including Germany, France, Belgium, Slovenia ad the Czech Republic, the UK imposed the harshest restrictions - yet suffered the fourth highest death toll.

The UK also suffered the highest fatality rate from the virus out of the 10 countries with the harshest restrictions globally - possibly due to the lockdown measures being introduced after surges in deaths.

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1 minute ago, Whitey Grandad said:

Not just my view. You might not like to hear it but an Oxford study has looked into it. Don’t forget that length of time is a factor. This is what happens when you isolate people from the world outside.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk-worlds-sixth-toughest-lockdown-23554938

”Compared to EU countries including Germany, France, Belgium, Slovenia ad the Czech Republic, the UK imposed the harshest restrictions - yet suffered the fourth highest death toll.

The UK also suffered the highest fatality rate from the virus out of the 10 countries with the harshest restrictions globally - possibly due to the lockdown measures being introduced after surges in deaths.

It's bollocks, we have not had a stricter lockdown than countries where only 1 person has been able to leave the house at a time, or had to stay within 1000 metres of their front door, or had to be indoors between 9pm and 6pm, etc. Our lockdown has been much lighter than that. 

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10 minutes ago, egg said:

It's bollocks, we have not had a stricter lockdown than countries where only 1 person has been able to leave the house at a time, or had to stay within 1000 metres of their front door, or had to be indoors between 9pm and 6pm, etc. Our lockdown has been much lighter than that. 

These people have studied it in depth. A strict lockdown for a couple of weeks doesn’t count as much as a looser one for several months. This has been going on for over a year now, with a couple of breaks.

I know you might not like to hear it but I know which I would prefer. Our early lockdown with its enthusiastic policing wasn’t a lot different from what you describe.

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3 hours ago, whelk said:

25 million had had their first dose when Boris made a point of claiming that it was lockdown not vaccines. Whilst not giving any evidence in terms of numbers of how many of those many millions were still contracting Covid and going to hospital.  To accept what he said was folly. Of course lockdowns work but he made a point of saying it wasn’t the vaccines which is bunkum

Lock downs got us from 40,000 in hospital and 2,000 corpses a day to just under 2,000 in hospital and deaths in single figures. Vaccines will keep it that way.

Without lock down, deaths wouldn't have been low enough to start opening up again.

Without vaccines, infections would start to climb again as we begin to open up.

We needed both. Boris, like him or loath him, didn't say anything misleading or untrue.

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32 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

These people have studied it in depth. A strict lockdown for a couple of weeks doesn’t count as much as a looser one for several months. This has been going on for over a year now, with a couple of breaks.

I know you might not like to hear it but I know which I would prefer. Our early lockdown with its enthusiastic policing wasn’t a lot different from what you describe.

😂

The Chinese military police were welding people's doors shut.

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2 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

😂

The Chinese military police were welding people's doors shut.

So what? Every house? There are a lot of people in China.

But this has no relevance to our lockdowns and how it’s severity compares with other countries. Length of time is an important factor too.

You cannot just assume that this type of lockdown is what was needed. I repeat what I said earlier. The schools made no significant difference but their closure has done irreparable damage to a generation of youngsters.

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10 hours ago, Whitey Grandad said:

Neither. But would you still advocate a lockdown?

If malaria was running rampant around the sceptred isles and that was the only option available to stop it killing thousands of people per day whilst a vaccine was developed, then it certainly seems the logical choice.

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9 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

Lock downs got us from 40,000 in hospital and 2,000 corpses a day to just under 2,000 in hospital and deaths in single figures. Vaccines will keep it that way.

Without lock down, deaths wouldn't have been low enough to start opening up again.

Without vaccines, infections would start to climb again as we begin to open up.

We needed both. Boris, like him or loath him, didn't say anything misleading or untrue.

We had a November lockdown that didn’t seem to be hugely effective. Same with in January and weeks to have effect. So lockdown rule in winter didn’t exactly make rates plummet. Clearly vaccines would stop people who may otherwise contract and spread in lockdown wouldn’t when they are vaccinated. 

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11 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

It's really not that difficult to comprehend.

If everyone is locked down, people aren't mixing together so the virus isn't able to spread - see also lockdown 1 & 2 for further examples!

During a full lockdown, there is no opportunity for the vaccines to show what they are able to do as the virus isn't spreading!  Boris wasn't claiming they don't work, merely that they didn't have the opportunity to do so!

If you had a malaria vaccine but then spent the entire summer sitting in your back garden in Southampton, would you claim it was the vaccine that stopped you getting malaria or the thousands of miles between you and the disease?

Surprised it is still kicking around as all world had to do was stay in their gardens to get on top of it.

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26 minutes ago, whelk said:

Surprised it is still kicking around as all world had to do was stay in their gardens to get on top of it.

Lol.

Of course it's still around and will be until effective vaccines are used around the world.

You really do seem to be struggling with the concept of a virus and how it can get from one person to another.

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13 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Lol.

Of course it's still around and will be until effective vaccines are used around the world.

You really do seem to be struggling with the concept of a virus and how it can get from one person to another.

So whilst they publish numbers (55 Indian case in London) on specific variants why are they so reticent to tell us the effectiveness of vaccines? Just had doctor in BBC proclaim that Indian variant is resistant to vaccines. No transparency but you clearly will swallow whatever comes out of Boris’s mouth. Why not say of those 55 cases 45, 30, 0 had been vaccinated? Because they don’t trust us with the data whilst preaching constantly about the data.

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19 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Lol.

Of course it's still around and will be until effective vaccines are used around the world.

You really do seem to be struggling with the concept of a virus and how it can get from one person to another.

What I struggle to understand it why I cannot get COVID while sat on the beach drinking with 50 other people, mask-less; but if I do that same thing in a bar with 50 people we are at risk. That is one clever frickin virus. In a restaurant, it can get me when I order food and while I am waiting, but man it backs the hell off when my food arrives and lets me eat in peace without my mask on.

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2 minutes ago, CollinsDic said:

What I struggle to understand it why I cannot get COVID while sat on the beach drinking with 50 other people, mask-less; but if I do that same thing in a bar with 50 people we are at risk. That is one clever frickin virus. In a restaurant, it can get me when I order food and while I am waiting, but man it backs the hell off when my food arrives and lets me eat in peace without my mask on.

Weight of droplets apparently hence why outdoor is so less risk.

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1 hour ago, whelk said:

We had a November lockdown that didn’t seem to be hugely effective. Same with in January and weeks to have effect. So lockdown rule in winter didn’t exactly make rates plummet. Clearly vaccines would stop people who may otherwise contract and spread in lockdown wouldn’t when they are vaccinated. 

It was a half a*sed lockdown which was rendered a worthless waste of time by Christmas and that stupid one day of school before the lockdown in January.

Like I said before, the actual proper lockdown can’t not have reduced infections. Anything which prevents people being in close proximity, particularly indoors, will reduce the spread of airborne pathogens. Same as the car crash analogy; airbags may well work but how can braking from 60 down to 30 first not have helped the situation?

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2 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

If malaria was running rampant around the sceptred isles and that was the only option available to stop it killing thousands of people per day whilst a vaccine was developed, then it certainly seems the logical choice.

Actually it would be a pointless choice seeing as malaria is passed on by a parasite present in mosquito bites. In the Middle Ages malaria was quite common in some areas of England such as the Fens. Lock down the mosquitoes by all means.

You started with an ‘if’ which does not and cannot apply. 
 

Malaria is of course one of the world’s greatest killers but thankfully work on a vaccine offers some real hope.

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-04-23-malaria-vaccine-becomes-first-achieve-who-specified-75-efficacy-goal

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2 hours ago, Whitey Grandad said:

Actually it would be a pointless choice seeing as malaria is passed on by a parasite present in mosquito bites. In the Middle Ages malaria was quite common in some areas of England such as the Fens. Lock down the mosquitoes by all means.

You started with an ‘if’ which does not and cannot apply. 
 

Malaria is of course one of the world’s greatest killers but thankfully work on a vaccine offers some real hope.

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-04-23-malaria-vaccine-becomes-first-achieve-who-specified-75-efficacy-goal

I started with an 'if' precisely because of the fact that malaria is passed to humans from mosquitos.

'IF' malaria was an airborne virus running rampant around the world, then lockdowns would be common place.

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4 hours ago, whelk said:

So whilst they publish numbers (55 Indian case in London) on specific variants why are they so reticent to tell us the effectiveness of vaccines? Just had doctor in BBC proclaim that Indian variant is resistant to vaccines. No transparency but you clearly will swallow whatever comes out of Boris’s mouth. Why not say of those 55 cases 45, 30, 0 had been vaccinated? Because they don’t trust us with the data whilst preaching constantly about the data.

Pretty sure that there was a stat released the other day stating that there hadn't been any deaths recently from vaccinated people (not sure of the source and I can't verify the info).

Not sure I've ever swallowed what Boris says - I've been slated many times for having an opinion that differs - instead, I like to look at a number of sources of information, compare and contrast and draw my own conclusions.

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8 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

I started with an 'if' precisely because of the fact that malaria is passed to humans from mosquitos.

'IF' malaria was an airborne virus running rampant around the world, then lockdowns would be common place.

Actually, to be pedantic, it's passed from humans to mosquitoes. Mosquitoes are hatched without the parasite. Its the process of sucking blood from humans which infects them. Its only after a human has infected them that they can pass it it to others.     

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36 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

I started with an 'if' precisely because of the fact that malaria is passed to humans from mosquitos.

'IF' malaria was an airborne virus running rampant around the world, then lockdowns would be common place.

But it isn’t. So your point is not valid.

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29 minutes ago, buctootim said:

Actually, to be pedantic, it's passed from humans to mosquitoes. Mosquitoes are hatched without the parasite. Its the process of sucking blood from humans which infects them. Its only after a human has infected them that they can pass it it to others.     

Troo dat. And other primates of course.

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Meanwhile, in India, an illustration of what can happen when hospitals become overwhelmed...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56870410

Quote

Indian hospitals say their patients are dying because of a shortage of oxygen as Covid case numbers and deaths set new records for a third day running.

India has recorded nearly a million infections in three days, with 346,786 new cases overnight into Saturday.

Looking at those infection figures it wouldn't be a surprise if they reached 5,000 deaths per day.

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1 hour ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Welcome to aintclever's world where hypothetical scenarios to illustrate a point are completely lost on you ;) 

They are not lost on me anything hypothetical has nothing to do with reality.

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26 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

They are not lost on me anything hypothetical has nothing to do with reality.

I guess that's why they are hypothetical...

But feel free to give another example of an airborne virus / disease that exists / has existed in modern history that would be so devastating as to warrant a lockdown.

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2 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Meanwhile, in India, an illustration of what can happen when hospitals become overwhelmed...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-56870410

Looking at those infection figures it wouldn't be a surprise if they reached 5,000 deaths per day.

A month ago they had 67,000 fans in to watch the T20i games against England. Utter madness. 
 

It’s hideous that the IPL is still being played while people that would have lived with hospital treatment are struggling to catch their last breaths because the hospitals are full. 

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The Zoe app is currently estimating 9 active cases per million people in Eastleigh and 18 in Southampton.

It's now so low and still dropping that we're surely on track to ease pretty much all restrictions in June. 

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4 hours ago, The Cat said:

The Zoe app is currently estimating 9 active cases per million people in Eastleigh and 18 in Southampton.

It's now so low and still dropping that we're surely on track to ease pretty much all restrictions in June. 

 BUT THE INDIAN VARIANT 

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8 hours ago, The Cat said:

The Zoe app is currently estimating 9 active cases per million people in Eastleigh and 18 in Southampton.

It's now so low and still dropping that we're surely on track to ease pretty much all restrictions in June. 

They have it as 38 active cases in southampton total. Yet 86 have tested positive in the last 7 days. That’s a lot of false positives 🤔

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1 hour ago, RedArmy said:

They have it as 38 active cases in southampton total. Yet 86 have tested positive in the last 7 days. That’s a lot of false positives 🤔

My son’s stepdaughter tested positive on Wednesday evening but the follow up checking test confirmed negative.

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8 hours ago, RedArmy said:

They have it as 38 active cases in southampton total. Yet 86 have tested positive in the last 7 days. That’s a lot of false positives 🤔

Seems like there are loads of false positives. They also don't get stripped from the figures after confirmation.

It's likely we are running some way below the number of daily positives, although I guess there are still a number of asymptomatic people walking around unaware they have covid.

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, The Cat said:

Seems like there are loads of false positives. They also don't get stripped from the figures after confirmation.

It's likely we are running some way below the number of daily positives, although I guess there are still a number of asymptomatic people walking around unaware they have covid.

 

 

 

I’m not clear about how many false positives are officially reported but there must be some among the figures. Likewise false negatives aren’t reported.

I can’t help thinking that this revelation about asymptomatic carriers has been invented to try to explain the failure of their modelling. A bit like Dark Matter being dreamed up to make the Universe equations work. Or, for those who are old enough, the phlogiston theory.
 

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23 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

I’m not clear about how many false positives are officially reported but there must be some among the figures. Likewise false negatives aren’t reported.

I can’t help thinking that this revelation about asymptomatic carriers has been invented to try to explain the failure of their modelling. A bit like Dark Matter being dreamed up to make the Universe equations work. Or, for those who are old enough, the phlogiston theory.
 

The rapid tests done in schools, airports etc are convenient and cheap but less accurate, especially when the swab is taken by untrained people. You really need to be forceful, which is uncomfortable, so there are a lot of false negatives but false positives are rare. They are a decent guide in conjunction with knowing if somebody has symptoms or not. The blood tests conducted at a lab are way more accurate.   

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50 minutes ago, buctootim said:

The rapid tests done in schools, airports etc are convenient and cheap but less accurate, especially when the swab is taken by untrained people. You really need to be forceful, which is uncomfortable, so there are a lot of false negatives but false positives are rare. They are a decent guide in conjunction with knowing if somebody has symptoms or not. The blood tests conducted at a lab are way more accurate.   

WTF are you on about, or have you just made this up to make yourself look all superior?

I did a PCR test last May and don't remember anything in the instructions about being 'forceful'.

Having checked, it would appear the instructions haven't changed significantly in almost a year https://www.publichealth.hscni.net/sites/default/files/2020-06/RTS_Self Test English_Final.pdf

Quote

Put the same end of the same swab gently into one nostril until you feel a slight resistance (about 2.5cm up your nose)

As per the quote above taken from the PDF from public health, I'd go so far as to point out that the instructions state "swab gently" and "slight resistance"!

These are the instructions that have been given to pretty much every single person who has taken a CoVid test in the last year.  I'd hazard a guess that the overwhelming majority of those people are also 'untrained' - pretty sure the only circumstances where a 'trained' person is carrying out the test is in circumstances where someone cannot do it themselves (if they are in a coma in hospital, for example).

The rapid tests carried out in schools, airports etc are only less accurate because of the way the results are delivered - i.e. they are not analysed by a trained person in a lab! - not because the person hasn't been specifically trained to stick something up their nose!  If you can read and understand what is written, you can effectively take the test!

As for your last sentence "The blood tests conducted at a lab are way more accurate." another load of horseshit that is completely wrong!  Blood tests are only carried out in order to identify antibodies and not to diagnose whether or not someone is infected.

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1 hour ago, buctootim said:

 

I'm sure you think you're making some kind of 'gotcha' point with this video, but at no point does he use the word 'forcefully'.  In fact, that whole video is exactly the same as the leaflet I posted a link to, which, just to remind you has this little phrase in it :

Quote

Put the same end of the same swab gently into one nostril until you feel a slight resistance (about 2.5cm up your nose)

He even states you should push it in until you feel resistance.

For your next trick, I'm sure you'll conjure up a video of someone taking their own blood for these magic blood tests that are way more accurate when they are conducted in a lab....

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We had our second jabs today. All very efficiently organised and no queues with spare vaccination stations available. This time there were two pods operating, one for Astra-Zeneca and one for Pfizer and we were asked which one we had previously been given.

I’ve had no obvious reaction yet but my wife has a pain in her left arm which is strange considering that she was injected in her right.

We’ll be back again in a few months for our boosters I expect.

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No covid patients in Southampton General now. Current estimates are that there are 8 active cases in Southampton and 5 in Eastleigh. 

We shutdown to protect the NHS. It's clear that has been achieved. Vaccine take up still high, transmission now proved to be blunted by it. It's surely time to bring forward some more easing of restrictions. 

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