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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, aintforever said:

Great news, can’t see lockdown being extended if that’s the case.

But you can never be too careful eh?

I mean, which scientists to trust, right?  SAGE or Oxford?

Matt Hancock said the same thing earlier today, but you were sceptical because he's not a scientist?

Edited by Weston Super Saint
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7 hours ago, S-Clarke said:

if we still get people going for tests and it coming back positive, but they don't end up in hospital, then that alone isn't a reason to to panic.

Depends how widespread the 'long covid' affects are I guess? My sister-in-law had mild symptoms when she contracted Covid but now, some 6 months later, gets out of breath when going out for a walk (for example). In other words, less people ending up in hospital isn't necessarily a green flag for letting transmission rip...

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26 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

But you can never be too careful eh?

I mean, which scientists to trust, right?  SAGE or Oxford?

Matt Hancock said the same thing earlier today, but you were sceptical because he's not a scientist?

Have SAGE ever said the vaccines will not work? From what I have read they are waiting for more information - that’s exactly what studies like this are for.

 

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2 minutes ago, aintforever said:

Have SAGE ever said the vaccines will not work? From what I have read they are waiting for more information - that’s exactly what studies like this are for.

 

They ('top advisors' who may or may not be SAGE), have certainly raised 'fears' about hospitalisations and 'urged' the PM to delay the easing of lockdown restrictions because of the 'threat' of the Indian variant.  Sadly, when 'scientists' raise 'fears' dim wits who can't think for themselves and carry out basic analysis of freely available data tend to get scared.

 

12 hours ago, whelk said:

Would have some bollocks to call off at eleventh hour. This shouldn’t be about politics but are these left wing scientists? 
And fuck me the Observer cost £3.20!

 

EE9FBCA3-C006-4DAD-B7D4-84842EB1E202.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

 

They ('top advisors' who may or may not be SAGE), have certainly raised 'fears' about hospitalisations and 'urged' the PM to delay the easing of lockdown restrictions because of the 'threat' of the Indian variant.  Sadly, when 'scientists' raise 'fears' dim wits who can't think for themselves and carry out basic analysis of freely available data tend to get scared.

 

Where is the quote of them saying the vaccines don’t work?

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Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, aintforever said:

Where is the quote of them saying the vaccines don’t work?

Do they have to say the vaccines don't work for them to suggest the lockdown measures shouldn't be lifted?

You're quite an odd person aren't you?  You've taken a conversation about 'scaremongering' and the timing of information releases regarding new variants and the inevitable questions about whether lockdowns should be extended and are now demanding a quote stating that vaccines don't work.

To my knowledge, SAGE have NEVER stated that vaccines don't work.  They HAVE stated that they 'feared' that they 'might not' work / be as effective, against pretty much every new variant that has arisen and had their fears allayed each and every time.

Have you heard the story of the boy who cried wolf?

Edited by Weston Super Saint
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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

 They HAVE stated that they 'feared' that they 'might not' work / be as effective, against pretty much every new variant that has arisen and had their fears allayed each and every time. 

That is just complete bollocks, there have been loads of variants but only a few have been labelled as of concern.

According to Sky News: In lab tests, the South African variant (B.1.351) and Brazil variant (P.1) both have a key mutation, E484K, which can help the virus evade antibodies produced by vaccines or by having had COVID-19. It is also more transmissible. that is why certain mutations are of concern and why they are testing the Indian variant now.

 You clearly struggle with anything science related, labelling something as concern and doing tests is not crying wolf.

Edited by aintforever
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3 hours ago, Fan The Flames said:

Have the elite manipulated the weather, to help control us.

Yeah they’ve tried to stop us meeting indoors by making it rain. 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, aintforever said:

That is just complete bollocks, there have been loads of variants but only a few have been labelled as of concern.

According to Sky News: In lab tests, the South African variant (B.1.351) and Brazil variant (P.1) both have a key mutation, E484K, which can help the virus evade antibodies produced by vaccines or by having had COVID-19. It is also more transmissible. that is why certain mutations are of concern and why they are testing the Indian variant now.

 You clearly struggle with anything science related, labelling something as concern and doing tests is not crying wolf.

Jesus wept!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55659820#:~:text=Some early results suggest the,be weaker and shorter-lived.

Selected quotes :

Quote

There is no evidence that any of them cause much more serious illness for the vast majority of people.

As with the original version, the risk remains highest for people who are elderly or have significant underlying health conditions.

But a virus being more infectious and equally dangerous will in itself lead to more deaths in an unvaccinated population.

Quote

The India, UK, South Africa and Brazil variants have all undergone changes to their spike protein - the part of the virus which attaches to human cells.

The India variant has some potentially important ones (such as L452R) that might make it spread more easily.

There is currently insufficient evidence to indicate it causes more severe disease or might make current vaccines less effective, say UK officials.

Quote

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said early lab data suggested the vaccines were effective against the India variant.

Quote

Experts are confident existing vaccines can be redesigned to better tackle emerging mutations.

The UK government has a deal with biopharmaceutical company CureVac to develop vaccines against future variants, and has pre-ordered 50 million doses.

Depending on how variants continue to develop, these could potentially be used to offer a booster vaccine to older or clinically vulnerable people later in the year.

Seems to be a fairly simple and consistent message (not surprised it's escaped you) - have your jab, keep calm and carry on.

Still, you carry on believing the scare tactics about each new variant whilst the rest of us start getting back to normal ;) 

Edited by Weston Super Saint
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2 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Jesus wept!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55659820#:~:text=Some early results suggest the,be weaker and shorter-lived.

Selected quotes :

Seems to be a fairly simple and consistent message (not surprised it's escaped you) - have your jab, keep calm and carry on.

Still, you carry on believing the scare tactics about each new variant whilst the rest of us start getting back to normal ;) 

And he’s got the neck to accuse others of pissing their pants over the daily mail 🤣🤣🤣🤣

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4 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Jesus wept!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55659820#:~:text=Some early results suggest the,be weaker and shorter-lived.

Selected quotes :

Seems to be a fairly simple and consistent message (not surprised it's escaped you) - have your jab, keep calm and carry on.

Still, you carry on believing the scare tactics about each new variant whilst the rest of us start getting back to normal ;) 

My whole point was that variants are a legitimate concern and not some made up scare story, and you prove my point by posting a quote about how the government are investing in 50 million new vaccines to combat future variants. :lol:

You really should stay away from anything science related, maybe stick to threads about floor sweeping.

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3 hours ago, Fan The Flames said:

Don't know what it's been like with you, but here it's been wet, cold and miserable all spring.

Pissing me right off. Has it been above 15 degrees yet in 2021?

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Pissing me right off. Has it been above 15 degrees yet in 2021?

It’s enough to make me want to fuck off to the Algarve but the missus is having none of it

Also makes me nostalgic about Lockdown 1 drinking in the garden working out what to watch on Netflix

Edited by whelk
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Just to put some meat on the bones for the Indian variant - you know, the dominant one that is ripping through the nation and threatening the end of lockdown...

This has been an issue for a number of weeks now with daily newspaper headlines citing 'fears' and 'tiers'.

Since the beginning of May we have held steady at just under 2000 cases per day.  We've since increased 'surge testing' in Indian variant 'hotspots' around the country and the picture that has been painted has been pretty bleak - aintclever wants us to be locked down until the end of time!

Yet, the reality is, despite all the increased testing (test more, find more!!) we have seen a week on week rise, for the entire country, of 173 cases.  Yep, 173 cases.  75 people have died in the last 7 days (which may or may not have been caused by covid!) and 751 people have been admitted to hospital, 9 fewer than the previous 7 days.

Still, good job the papers have got something to write about!

Data source

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9 hours ago, Lighthouse said:

Pissing me right off. Has it been above 15 degrees yet in 2021?

I can handle lock down or shit weather, but together it's depressing. 

9 hours ago, whelk said:

It’s enough to make me want to fuck off to the Algarve but the missus is having none of it

Also makes me nostalgic about Lockdown 1 drinking in the garden working out what to watch on Netflix

Yeah LD1 was alright, sitting in the garden all weekend drinking rose and eating burgers.

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10 hours ago, aintforever said:

My whole point was that variants are a legitimate concern and not some made up scare story, and you prove my point by posting a quote about how the government are investing in 50 million new vaccines to combat future variants. :lol:

You really should stay away from anything science related, maybe stick to threads about floor sweeping.

Aren’t you embarrassed that a floor sweeper and someone as stupid as me repeatedly makes you look like an utter imbecile or are you even more dense than we think and don’t realise it?

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57 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

  

Yet, the reality is, despite all the increased testing (test more, find more!!) we have seen a week on week rise, for the entire country, of 173 cases.  Yep, 173 cases.  75 people have died in the last 7 days (which may or may not have been caused by covid!) and 751 people have been admitted to hospital, 9 fewer than the previous 7 days.

Still, good job the papers have got something to write about!

Data source

There's the issue Weston. With the vaccinations we've done, there shouldn't be a week on week rise, cases should be going down. If people want to limit this, they'll argue that it's just down to more testing, but if you look at raw stats, it's an increase that shouldn't be happening. 

People can be as flippant as they want, but the trend ain't going the right way. 

The jab isn't 100% effective and the more cases in circulation, we'll see more vaccinated people coming a cropper. They'll also be less confidence amongst some of those vaccinated. Those are the issues.

Aintforever is saying what people don't want to hear. He ain't wrong though. 

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49 minutes ago, egg said:

There's the issue Weston. With the vaccinations we've done, there shouldn't be a week on week rise, cases should be going down. If people want to limit this, they'll argue that it's just down to more testing, but if you look at raw stats, it's an increase that shouldn't be happening. 

People can be as flippant as they want, but the trend ain't going the right way. 

The jab isn't 100% effective and the more cases in circulation, we'll see more vaccinated people coming a cropper. They'll also be less confidence amongst some of those vaccinated. Those are the issues.

Aintforever is saying what people don't want to hear. He ain't wrong though. 

Surely you have to also consider the number of tests that produce these positive results? The number of cases (positives) is not the total number in the population as a whole but only a sample of it. We need to consider all the factors such as the ending of Ramadan.

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1 hour ago, egg said:

There's the issue Weston. With the vaccinations we've done, there shouldn't be a week on week rise, cases should be going down. If people want to limit this, they'll argue that it's just down to more testing, but if you look at raw stats, it's an increase that shouldn't be happening. 

People can be as flippant as they want, but the trend ain't going the right way. 

The jab isn't 100% effective and the more cases in circulation, we'll see more vaccinated people coming a cropper. They'll also be less confidence amongst some of those vaccinated. Those are the issues.

Aintforever is saying what people don't want to hear. He ain't wrong though. 

There isnt a week on week rise. The numbers are in plateau There was a huge drop from February. In March it was down c5000 a week, then during April it dropped down to below 3,000. The average has hovered between 2000-2300 for the last month. Some weeks slightly up, some weeks slightly down. Also average deaths have halved in the last month. 

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19 minutes ago, Turkish said:

There isnt a week on week rise. The numbers are in plateau There was a huge drop from February. In March it was down c5000 a week, then during April it dropped down to below 3,000. The average has hovered between 2000-2300 for the last month. Some weeks slightly up, some weeks slightly down. Also average deaths have halved in the last month. 

Weston's post referred to a week on week increase...no idea if he's right, but that's what he wrote. Assuming he's right, it ain't going in the right direction - it's pretty obvious that increased vaccinations should equate to reduced cases. 

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, egg said:

Weston's post referred to a week on week increase...no idea if he's right, but that's what he wrote. Assuming he's right, it ain't going in the right direction - it's pretty obvious that increased vaccinations should equate to reduced cases. 

it went up very slightly last week. If people want to take a small increase for one week and panic about it that's up to them. This could be down to surge testing, i dont know but a small increase for one week is not a trend.

The trend since February has been significant drops between Feb-mid April then a plateau in cases with the drop in deaths continuing to drop week on week. Hospitilsations have dropped from 2500 a day at the end of January to about 100 a day in May, halving since the start of April. As they always said the vaccine will protect against serious illness, its doing that.

If you want a true trend on infections then according to the government data on the 7th May the seven day average was 2311, 7th April 2733, 7th March 5524, 7th Feb 14298, 7th January 53283. It is going in the right direction. 

 

 

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3 hours ago, egg said:

Weston's post referred to a week on week increase...no idea if he's right, but that's what he wrote. Assuming he's right, it ain't going in the right direction - it's pretty obvious that increased vaccinations should equate to reduced cases. 

A very tiny increase, which could be a result of increased surge testing.

Personally I'd also put that down to the millions of people who are yet to be vaccinated (as well as those that have refused), but yet will not have many adverse effects from the virus.

Combine that with a significant drop in hospitalisations and deaths and there really isn't anything to worry about.

We are seeing infection levels similar to last summer. If you think we are going to get the number down to zero then you'll be pretty upset when that doesn't happen, especially as we've already been told this virus will be around for years to come (much like 'flu)....

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, egg said:

Weston's post referred to a week on week increase...no idea if he's right, but that's what he wrote. Assuming he's right, it ain't going in the right direction - it's pretty obvious that increased vaccinations should equate to reduced cases. 

How many of these infections are people who came in from India?

Increased vaccinations will not reduce cases in those areas that have not been vaccinated. The devil is in the detail, which we don't have.

Edited by Whitey Grandad
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5 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

How many of these infections are people who came in from India?

Increased vaccinations will not reduce cases in those areas that have not been vaccinated. The devil is in the detail, which we don't have.

Hancock said the other day that of the 18 people in Bolton in hospital with covid the majority had been offered a vaccine but not had it. 

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5 hours ago, egg said:

Weston's post referred to a week on week increase...no idea if he's right, but that's what he wrote. 

I also posted a link to the data source I used so anyone could click it and check out the information for themselves.

Here it is once more in case anyone missed it - it links directly to the Gov website which publishes the covid figures every day.....

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5 hours ago, egg said:

Weston's post referred to a week on week increase...no idea if he's right, but that's what he wrote. Assuming he's right, it ain't going in the right direction - it's pretty obvious that increased vaccinations should equate to reduced cases. 

I don't understand your argument here.

There is one absolute certainty with the covid virus and that is that once lockdown is lifted, the number of infections WILL rise, put very simply, this is due to two things :

1. The vaccine is not 100% effective, therefore, even vaccinated people can still catch the virus and spread it amongst other vaccinated people.  Fortunately it protects against 'serious' illness so the impact won't be as great as it could be, especially to those in the 'vulnerable' categories.

2. We haven't vaccinated 100% of the population - infact, taking the info from the link above, we have only completed 39.0% with 2 doses (even then they won't be 100% 'safe', see point 1!) and another 30% with one dose (currently estimated to be about 85% effective), which leaves 31% of the population (circa 21 million people), who are not vaccinated at all and still more than capable of catching the virus and spreading it.

It's pretty obvious that increased vaccinations HAVE led to reduced cases, although they are still going to rise once lockdown is totally lifted as a result of points 1 and 2!

Once you accept that as a fact, you will be able to sleep soundly at night and carry on with your life!

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2 hours ago, Turkish said:

Beautiful out there today, just nipped out for nine holes at lunch time. Perfect day for golf.

Is it as good as the golf in Glasgow and the surrounding areas though....?

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2 hours ago, Weston Super Saint said:

I don't understand your argument here.

There is one absolute certainty with the covid virus and that is that once lockdown is lifted, the number of infections WILL rise, put very simply, this is due to two things :

1. The vaccine is not 100% effective, therefore, even vaccinated people can still catch the virus and spread it amongst other vaccinated people.  Fortunately it protects against 'serious' illness so the impact won't be as great as it could be, especially to those in the 'vulnerable' categories.

2. We haven't vaccinated 100% of the population - infact, taking the info from the link above, we have only completed 39.0% with 2 doses (even then they won't be 100% 'safe', see point 1!) and another 30% with one dose (currently estimated to be about 85% effective), which leaves 31% of the population (circa 21 million people), who are not vaccinated at all and still more than capable of catching the virus and spreading it.

It's pretty obvious that increased vaccinations HAVE led to reduced cases, although they are still going to rise once lockdown is totally lifted as a result of points 1 and 2!

Once you accept that as a fact, you will be able to sleep soundly at night and carry on with your life!

That I do. I've been at work for months, seeing clients face to face, mixing with family and friends. Life's very much back to normal for me.  

On the rest of it, the numbers you posted showed an increase week on week. Subsequent lockdown easing is irrelevant to that - that increase happened during a period when rules hadn't changed. Sure, the tickle upwards may have been due to increased testing, but it's an indisputable fact that in a week when more people were vaccinated, more people tested positive. It's obvious why that would concern the government. 

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6 hours ago, Whitey Grandad said:

How many of these infections are people who came in from India?

Hancock was asked this in Parliament but declined to answer. I wonder why?

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2 hours ago, egg said:

That I do. I've been at work for months, seeing clients face to face, mixing with family and friends. Life's very much back to normal for me.  

On the rest of it, the numbers you posted showed an increase week on week. Subsequent lockdown easing is irrelevant to that - that increase happened during a period when rules hadn't changed. Sure, the tickle upwards may have been due to increased testing, but it's an indisputable fact that in a week when more people were vaccinated, more people tested positive. It's obvious why that would concern the government. 

If the increase in positives is amongst the unvaccinated then why the concern?

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Just now, Whitey Grandad said:

If the increase in positives is amongst the unvaccinated then why the concern?

The number of unvaccinated people is going down, thus any increase in case numbers suggests a greater spread. If people choose not to get the vaccine and become infected, they won't get much sympathy from me, but if we're looking at 80% efficacy then more cases in circulation exposes more of the vaccinated people. That then exposes all of us to more restrictions which we need to see the back of for good. 

Had we been tighter on the borders, and properly enforced the quarantine, we wouldn't be having this discussion. 

 

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6 minutes ago, egg said:

The number of unvaccinated people is going down, thus any increase in case numbers suggests a greater spread. If people choose not to get the vaccine and become infected, they won't get much sympathy from me, but if we're looking at 80% efficacy then more cases in circulation exposes more of the vaccinated people. That then exposes all of us to more restrictions which we need to see the back of for good. 

Had we been tighter on the borders, and properly enforced the quarantine, we wouldn't be having this discussion. 

 

It’s down to the granularity though. If (!) most of the new positives are in a community that is largely unvaccinated then they won’t get much sympathy from me either. If the new cases are spread evenly throughout the population then that deserves a closer look.

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5 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

It’s down to the granularity though. If (!) most of the new positives are in a community that is largely unvaccinated then they won’t get much sympathy from me either. If the new cases are spread evenly throughout the population then that deserves a closer look.

Yep, and it seems that the government are just keeping an eye on it which is fair enough. It'd be wrong to over react, and equally wrong to dismiss it as insignificant. 

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35 minutes ago, egg said:

Yep, and it seems that the government are just keeping an eye on it which is fair enough. It'd be wrong to over react, and equally wrong to dismiss it as insignificant. 

Unfortunately the suspicion is that politics and political correctness might be involved.

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2 hours ago, ecuk268 said:

Hancock was asked this in Parliament but declined to answer. I wonder why?

Imagine if you gave the facts behind the data and some of the general public came to some racist viewpoint? Nanny knows best. Just be scared of everything always and don’t get complacent. Sanitise your hands at every turn and wear a mask 200 yards from a football ground to keep everyone save. That jab you had ain’t going to save you from the next variant. 

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I am watching GMB and the panel is losing their shit about the Indian Varient.  Ultimately, according to them, it is too dangerous to do anything.

Dr Hilary is furious that we are not locked into our borders until at least March.

 

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9 hours ago, egg said:

Had we been tighter on the borders, and properly enforced the quarantine, we wouldn't be having this discussion. 

 

Should all international travel be banned just in case?

The 7 day average for positive tests is now down by 2.6% and the average for deaths is down by 27.9% over the same time period, so the vaccinations must be working, right?

data source

The even better news, though, is that a fair few of those who had refused to have the vaccine in the Indian variant hotspot areas have now come forward and had their jabs. Who knew that a bit of scaremongering could be so successful?

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9 hours ago, egg said:

Had we been tighter on the borders, and properly enforced the quarantine, we wouldn't be having this discussion. 

 

9 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Should all international travel be banned just in case?

You can have international travel by vaccinated Brits and still be tight on quarantining non vaccinated international arrivals from other countries.   

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8 minutes ago, buctootim said:

 

You can have international travel by vaccinated Brits and still be tight on quarantining non vaccinated international arrivals from other countries.   

Can you?

If the vaccine isn't 100% effective then there is a possibility that even those that are fully vaccinated can still catch the virus in another country and bring it home with them, passing it to unvaccinated people and allowing it to spread.

The only effective system would appear to be the one adopted by Australia where everyone has to quarantine for two weeks in a quarantine hotel where spaces are limited so the number of arrivals each day / week is controlled.  Whilst it's effective, it probably wouldn't be appealing to our populist government who want to keep everyone happy all the time.

 

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Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, Weston Super Saint said:

Should all international travel be banned just in case?

The 7 day average for positive tests is now down by 2.6% and the average for deaths is down by 27.9% over the same time period, so the vaccinations must be working, right?

data source

The even better news, though, is that a fair few of those who had refused to have the vaccine in the Indian variant hotspot areas have now come forward and had their jabs. Who knew that a bit of scaremongering could be so successful?

First question. No. Just people from areas where the Indian variant was/is rife. We got there eventually, just too late albeit the Turkish corridor wasn't blocked, and the quarantine was/is a joke - people aren't bothering. 

Second question. Nobody has said the vaccines aren't working. They offer 80% efficacy, so they won't do the job for 1 in 5 people. Less cases = less chance of those people getting infected. 

Edited by egg
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