Play Off Chase

[Willo of Whiteley]

23 minutes ago, Willo of Whiteley said:

Millwall v QPR
Swansea v Southampton
Ipswich v Middlesbrough

Southampton v Bristol City
Stoke v Millwall
Charlton v Ipswich
Middlesbrough v Sheffield United

Leicester v Millwall
Middlesbrough v Watford
West Brom v Ipswich

Southampton v Ipswich

Ipswich v QPR
Millwall v Oxford
Preston v Southampton
Wrexham v Middlesbrough

Absolute free-for-all, but I don’t see us dropping the most points out of the four teams in this run in.

Everyone will have their own ideas of how the games will go, teams are going to shit the bed, and I don’t think it’ll be us.

Any predictions?

[Patrick Bateman]

1 minute ago, Willo of Whiteley said:

Everyone will have their own ideas of how the games will go, teams are going to shit the bed, and I don’t think it’ll be us.

Any predictions?

6 more wins. 1 at a time, match by match ... 

[saintant]

14 minutes ago, CB Fry said:

Well, still no. We can beat them. They can lose another game. And they can still get to 84 points.

We can only get to 84 by winning all 4 including beating Ipswich. We could do that and still finish third behind Ipswich on goal difference. 

I hope we can win 10 games in a row but I don't see it. The pressure changes as chaser gets closer to the prize.

In this scenario it is highly likely our 4 wins including one against Ipswich will see us with a superior goal difference to them. They'll have lost two games including the one against us where the goal swing is doubled.

[Zorba]

Win all our remaining games and we’ll finish 2nd. Anything less and Ipswich will finish above us.

Being a pessimist, i think we’ll drop points somewhere. But we have enough to win the play-offs. 

It’s going to be a nerve-racking few weeks.

[saintant]

Boro have zero wins/3 draws and 3 losses in six, Millwall have two wins, two draws and two losses, Ipswich have 3 wins, 2 draws and a loss. Oh and we have six wins out of six 🙂

 

[SNSUN]

If we have to win the play-offs to go up, so be it. We don't seem to fear anyone right now, and since we went 4 at the back, Peretz and Larin came and in and we got Bree back, we're on fire. I still don't think we'll make second, but we should not fear the play-offs. 

Really only a suspension or injury to a key player like Peretz or maybe THB, a terrible refereeing decision or simply meeting a team playing at the very top of their game, will probably stop us now. Tonda has them very well prepared. 

[Lighthouse]

The odds are still against us for second as we need a lot to all go our way. We will need to win our last four, if Ipswich get a draw or better against us then it looks almost insurmountable. Their game in hand is basically WBA when we play Man City a week Saturday, I'd say win there is still more likely than not. This Saturday's game is Ipswich vs. Boro. We want a draw really but on the balance of things, Ipswich are still favourites for that.

Between this and the FA Cup, it's not what you'd call a damp squib of a finale.

[HKsaint]

If Boro beat Ipswich for 2 nil and we beat Swansea for 4 nil or more, we will go to second.

[SNSUN]

1 hour ago, HKsaint said:

If Boro beat Ipswich for 2 nil and we beat Swansea for 4 nil or more, we will go to second.

Millwall might have something to say about that as they play first and will probably beat QPR. We're not the only two teams in the race. 

Boro winning is plausible though. Swansea away feels like one of those fixtures we could muff up somehow but that's probably the Saints fan of old in me. TondaTeam is relentless. 

[CB Fry]

The last team in the top four divisions to win 10 games in a row was Port Vale in L2 in the autumn of 2024.

It feels right now that we can win every game, sure, but it would have felt like that for lots of other clubs who also haven't won 10 in a row. Which is all of them including Arsenal and Coventry and Lincoln and so on.

If we do it, lovely, will be astonishing. But incredibly; incredibly rare.

[Pilchards]

2 hours ago, SNSUN said:

Millwall might have something to say about that as they play first and will probably beat QPR. We're not the only two teams in the race. 

Boro winning is plausible though. Swansea away feels like one of those fixtures we could muff up somehow but that's probably the Saints fan of old in me. TondaTeam is relentless. 

QPR being the second in form team?

Not going to be easy.

Edited 5 hours ago by Pilchards

[SNSUN]

45 minutes ago, CB Fry said:

The last team in the top four divisions to win 10 games in a row was Port Vale in L2 in the autumn of 2024.

It feels right now that we can win every game, sure, but it would have felt like that for lots of other clubs who also haven't won 10 in a row. Which is all of them including Arsenal and Coventry and Lincoln and so on.

If we do it, lovely, will be astonishing. But incredibly; incredibly rare.

Just did the research that the last time we won 5 League games in a row (we we have now) was our promotional League One campaign under the always sexy Nigel Adkins when we actually won 6. So beat Swansea and we equal that 6. We've won a few 4-League-games-in-a-row in the last 15 years but not 5 (well 6 as it was then) since 2011. I refuse to do the research on when we last won 7 League games in a row. I'm not that disciplined but I'd estimate a guess as it being in the 80s.

 

[kwsaint]

18 minutes ago, SNSUN said:

Just did the research that the last time we won 5 League games in a row (we we have now) was our promotional League One campaign under the always sexy Nigel Adkins when we actually won 6. So beat Swansea and we equal that 6. We've won a few 4-League-games-in-a-row in the last 15 years but not 5 (well 6 as it was then) since 2011. I refuse to do the research on when we last won 7 League games in a row. I'm not that disciplined but I'd estimate a guess as it being in the 80s.

 

According to Gemini we’ve never done 7 in a row…

[trousers]

Believing that we'll now finish second seems as unfeasible as thinking a week ago that we'd now be lying in 4th place, EIGHT points ahead of the team we were 1 point behind at the time... Oh...

[Sheaf Saint]

4 hours ago, SNSUN said:

Millwall might have something to say about that as they play first and will probably beat QPR. We're not the only two teams in the race. 

QPR are second in the form table over the last six games (ahead of Cov and Ipswich on GD), Millwall are eighth. 

I know the Den is a difficult place for any visiting team, but I wouldn't be betting large amounts on a home win this Saturday. 

[whelk]

Mental that we have made up 15 points on Boro in the last six games. Their fans must be in meltdown.i know a couple of Ipswich fans and they are so pessimistic about their chances which is also mad. 

[RedWillie]

As if by Magic, Ipswich ticket availability has drastically reduced overnight. Get them whilst you can !

[Football Special]

14 minutes ago, RedWillie said:

As if by Magic, Ipswich ticket availability has drastically reduced overnight. Get them whilst you can !

Surprised they haven't put it on restricted sale to purchase history as Ipswich have already sold out their 3,008 allocation. 

It could be an absolutely huge game promotion decider, or of course it could be done and dusted by then 

[Patrick Bateman]

1 hour ago, kwsaint said:

According to Gemini we’ve never done 7 in a row…

Speaking of Gemini ... I'll take this 😂

 

Final Standings Prediction:

1. Coventry City

2. Southampton

3. Ipswich Town

4. Millwall

5. Middlesbrough

6. Preston North End (The late surge!)

[whelk]

Last games for all the top teams. Only one team has a win!

Couldn’t post the graphic but of the top 12 teams only we won

Edited 2 hours ago by whelk

[EBS1980]

It’s still gonna be tricky, due to Ipswich. Ultimately we need to target 4 wins and see where it ends us up.

i week ago we were talking about trying to get into the play offs and now we are as good as in them targeting automatics.

Aim for autos but if worst case is top 4 and a home tie in the second leg of the play offs then I’d still fancy our chances, given our form.

 

[Patches O Houlihan]

Ipswich fans looking over their shoulders

https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/627534/anyone-else-concerned-that-southampton-are-putting-themselves-in-the-mix/#42

[Turkish]

1 hour ago, Patrick Bateman said:

Speaking of Gemini ... I'll take this 😂

 

Final Standings Prediction:

1. Coventry City

2. Southampton

3. Ipswich Town

4. Millwall

5. Middlesbrough

6. Preston North End (The late surge!)

Can’t see it unfortunately. Millwall have the easiest run in two mid table teams then Leicester and Oxford who could both be down by the time they play them. I could see them sneaking second. 

Edited 1 hour ago by Turkish

[Whitey Grandad]

It may be worth pointing out that we don't need to win ten in a row at this stage. We just need to win four in a row.

I'm just disappointed that we can't catch Coventry 😌

Edited 2 hours ago by Whitey Grandad

[Turkish]

21 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

It may be worth pointing out that we don't need to win ten in a row at this stage. We just need to win four in a row.

I'm just disappointed that we can't catch Coventry 😌

It would be 10 in a row if we win the next 4

[trousers]

4 minutes ago, Turkish said:

It would be 10 in a row if we win the next 4

I think we need @Matthew Le God to step in here to explain that, scientifically, previous results do not impact future results, or some such...

[Patrick Bateman]

28 minutes ago, Turkish said:

Can’t see it unfortunately. Millwall have the easiest run in two mid table teams then Leicester and Oxford who could both be down by the time we play them. I could see them sneaking second. 

But but but, AI told me.

[whelk]

3 minutes ago, trousers said:

I think we need @Matthew Le God to step in here to explain that, scientifically, previous results do not impact future results, or some such...

Not strictly true as form plays a part so not the same as coin tossing or dice throwing. But if anyone cares there is something kneon as the gambler’s fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

[whelk]

4 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

But but but, AI told me.

Hey Chatbot girlfriend give me some predictions where we go up automatically, after that tell me what you will do to me if I am naughty

[trousers]

Just now, whelk said:

Hey Chatbot girlfriend give me some predictions where we go up automatically, after that tell me what you will do to me if I am naughty

My wife doesn't let me go up automatically, that's for sure

[Patches O Houlihan]

Hey Grok try to find a reason in the last 8 weeks for giving Cam Bragg a shoeing 

[sockeye]

43 minutes ago, Turkish said:

Can’t see it unfortunately. Millwall have the easiest run in two mid table teams then Leicester and Oxford who could both be down by the time we play them. I could see them sneaking second. 

Maybe we can do an emergency loan of Tonda to Leicester and Oxford?

[hypochondriac]

44 minutes ago, Patches O Houlihan said:

Ipswich fans looking over their shoulders

https://www.twtd.co.uk/forum/627534/anyone-else-concerned-that-southampton-are-putting-themselves-in-the-mix/#42

If we manage to beat Ipswich at home then I reckon we will do it.

[hypochondriac]

Watched a stream today that said that if Ipswich get promoted now with their away form then it will be unprecedented. Those three away games in a row including us is going to define their season.

Draw to Boro 

Beat Charlton 

Draw with West brom 

Lose to saints 

Beat qpr

 

Saints win their four and we finish above them.

Edited 1 hour ago by hypochondriac

[Patches O Houlihan]

Just now, hypochondriac said:

If we manage to beat Ipswich at home then I reckon we will do it.

We’ll need Millwall to screw up too of course… and we need to be perfect, and not out of sorts after an FA Cup semi final immediately beforehand. 
 

I’m loving the excitement and anticipation - it would be so hard to do, that for me there’s no real frustration if we don’t achieve it. Worst case is we’re in the driving seat for the playoffs with recent experience of winning them, and being the form team. 

[Whitey Grandad]

29 minutes ago, Turkish said:

It would be 10 in a row if we win the next 4

But we've already won our previous six so from now on we only need to win four. And maybe not even that although beating Ipswich is important. 

[badgerx16]

1 minute ago, Whitey Grandad said:

But we've already won our previous six so from now on we only need to win four. And maybe not even that although beating Ipswich is important. 

We only need to win 1, ( then win 1, then win 1, then win 1.).

[Doctoroncall]

7 minutes ago, Patches O Houlihan said:

We’ll need Millwall to screw up too of course… and we need to be perfect, and not out of sorts after an FA Cup semi final immediately beforehand. 
 

I’m loving the excitement and anticipation - it would be so hard to do, that for me there’s no real frustration if we don’t achieve it. Worst case is we’re in the driving seat for the playoffs with recent experience of winning them, and being the form team. 

That’s why I’m a relaxed about it. It’s a long shot and there are the playoffs. Prefer Millwall to go up in second as Alex Neil has been excellent with his tactical acumen whereas Ipswich have not been consistent at all.