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  1. #701

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    I have heard some people are buying more provisions than normal #ITK

  2. #702

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    Quote Originally Posted by CB Fry View Post
    My brother has just given me some exclusive inside info that children of key workers will still be able to go to school. You heard it here first from my brother.
    You really need to grow up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by whelk View Post
    I have heard some people are buying more provisions than normal #ITK
    I’ll be using sterling banknotes if I run out of loo roll.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Weston Super Saint View Post
    I'm sure Soggy will be congratulating the Government for keeping the schools open for the children of all key workers - and for finding solutions for all the other reasons why the schools shouldn't have been immediately shut down....
    We will never know the numbers of course, but those who would not have had fallen sick if schools had been closed earlier might not agree with you.

  5. #705

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    They should shoot a few of these greedy cnts.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Weston Super Saint View Post
    Soggy will be over the moon - schools closing on Friday....
    Hopefully it will mean less transmission of the virus. A good thing, yes?

  7. #707

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    Two positives from this

    my commute is a breeze although wonít be commuting too much shortly but hanging on in there.

    Less Eastenders on the tv

  8. #708

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    Quote Originally Posted by buctootim View Post
    SOG this stuff is in the news. It’s not inside info. Maybe consider posting more sparingly?
    I have not heard the news today and I wasn’t pretending that it was inside info. Just something I thought might be of interest. Unfortunately the usual c*nts on here can’t help themselves so I will leave you all to it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sadoldgit View Post
    We will never know the numbers of course, but those who would not have had fallen sick if schools had been closed earlier might not agree with you.
    Jesus wept!

    Are you still in denial about the virus? It has been stated numerous times and from numerous countries that between 60 and 80% of the population will be infected and 'fall sick'. That is regardless of the schools being closed or not!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Weston Super Saint View Post
    Jesus wept!

    Are you still in denial about the virus? It has been stated numerous times and from numerous countries that between 60 and 80% of the population will be infected and 'fall sick'. That is regardless of the schools being closed or not!
    Interesting. I had not seen this. Source?
    Last edited by shurlock; 18-03-2020 at 05:47 PM.

  11. #711

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    Actually feeling heartbroken that I won't be seeing my classes for god knows how long. Online learning will not be a substitute, from any perspective you look at it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    Interesting. I had not seen this. Source?
    BBC - it was on the live feed...

    I'm sure it's also in one of the articles but there are that many of them....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Colinjb View Post
    Actually feeling heartbroken that I won't be seeing my classes for god knows how long. Online learning will not be a substitute, from any perspective you look at it.
    What plans does your school have for learning from home? What subject/age do you teach?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Weston Super Saint View Post
    BBC - it was on the live feed...

    I'm sure it's also in one of the articles but there are that many of them....
    This?

    “Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University and a leading health expert during the 2002 SARS outbreak, told The Guardian that the deadly virus known as Covid-19 “could infect 60 percent of global population if unchecked.”

    But he also urged caution.

    “Is 60-80 percent of the world’s population going to get infected? Maybe not,” Leung told The Guardian. “Maybe this will come in waves. Maybe the virus is going to attenuate its lethality because it certainly doesn’t help it if it kills everybody in its path, because it will get killed as well.””

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    Quote Originally Posted by Colinjb View Post
    Actually feeling heartbroken that I won't be seeing my classes for god knows how long. Online learning will not be a substitute, from any perspective you look at it.
    how will students be graded at this point? predicted grades?

  16. #716

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    This?

    “Gabriel Leung, the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University and a leading health expert during the 2002 SARS outbreak, told The Guardian that the deadly virus known as Covid-19 “could infect 60 percent of global population if unchecked.”

    But he also urged caution.

    “Is 60-80 percent of the world’s population going to get infected? Maybe not,” Leung told The Guardian. “Maybe this will come in waves. Maybe the virus is going to attenuate its lethality because it certainly doesn’t help it if it kills everybody in its path, because it will get killed as well.””
    No idea!

    I read it and the statistic has stuck.

    It is a virus whose infection rate effectively doubles every five to six days - a lot of people have very minor symptoms, some have none.

    I'm guessing we'll never truly know the scale as not everyone that has symptoms is being tested, let alone those that haven't got / haven't noticed any symptoms.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Weston Super Saint View Post
    No idea!

    I read it and the statistic has stuck.

    It is a virus whose infection rate effectively doubles every five to six days - a lot of people have very minor symptoms, some have none.

    I'm guessing we'll never truly know the scale as not everyone that has symptoms is being tested, let alone those that haven't got / haven't noticed any symptoms.
    Where did you read it? Because all I've been able to find is the quote above and while it is superficially similar, it doesn't really support what you say. But perhaps you're referring to a different source in which case it would be good to know what it is. Its a very startling stat if correct.
    Last edited by shurlock; 18-03-2020 at 06:10 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    What plans does your school have for learning from home? What subject/age do you teach?
    We will be adapting the online learning platforms we use for our homework. At best though, it's going to keep the children treading water, the ones who don't feel engaged with the curriculum they will not bother. I am a GCSE and KS3 Science teacher.

    Quote Originally Posted by Batman View Post
    how will students be graded at this point? predicted grades?
    There is talk of using the grades from their mock exams, but frankly.... Not a scooby.
    Last edited by Colinjb; 18-03-2020 at 06:23 PM.

  19. Default Coronavirus

    Quote Originally Posted by buctootim View Post
    If you all knew who it would be thats an indictment of you and your management colleagues, not him. He takes the **** because he can. You enable him.
    Not me, heís only just come to me. Iím in the middle of managing him out, but itís not easy due to soft arsed lefties like you legislating


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
    Last edited by Lord Duckhunter; 18-03-2020 at 06:21 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    Where did you read it? Because all I've been able to find is the quote above and while it is superficially similar, it doesn't really support what you say. But perhaps you're referring to a different source in which case it would be good to know what it is. Its a very startling stat if correct.
    60% was the initial UK herd immunisation figure. I thought it had been reported that Merkel had said up to 80% of Germans could get infected, but looking at the NYT article it was 2/3 - still a hell of a lot.

    Those are the only references to 60/80% I've seen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Colinjb View Post
    We will be adapting the online learning platforms we use for our homework. At best though, it's going to keep the children treading water, the one ones who don't feel engaged with the curriculum they will not bother. I am a GCSE and KS3 Science teacher.



    There is talk of using the grades from their mock exams, but frankly.... Not a scooby.
    Very interesting. Science is a pretty hands-on subject, so hard to see how you can teach a full course. I assume the platform supports only limited video - you can't literally see all your students at the same time, never mind pick up on their nonverbal cues? As you say, online platforms are serviceable if students are engaged (whio if anything require less help); but for others, they are pretty clunky. Wish you the best of luck!

  22. Default

    Just catching up with the thread, looks like Soggy is the Coronavirus ITK.


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    Quote Originally Posted by egg View Post
    60% was the initial UK herd immunisation figure. I thought it had been reported that Merkel had said up to 80% of Germans could get infected, but looking at the NYT article it was 2/3 - still a hell of a lot.

    Those are the only references to 60/80% I've seen.
    The context for the 60% herd immunisation figure is completely different.

    Its basically an estimate of how many people would need to be infected for the country to achieve herd immunity. Its a statement about what is required to make herd immunity work (fwiw an approach that has been debunked). It doesn't say that 60% will be infected. Its also based on the assumption that the government takes a hands-off, laissez-faire approach and lets the virus 'rip'. Again that's very different from saying that 60% of the population will be infected regardless whether the government intervenes, closes schools, introduces social distancing and takes other proactive measures.
    Last edited by shurlock; 18-03-2020 at 06:44 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    Interesting. I had not seen this. Source?
    Itís been stated by Sir Patrick Vallance that worse case scenario of 80% infected has been used in modelling. Germans have used 70%.

    Generally, herd immunity is achieved at 60%.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Doctoroncall View Post
    It’s been stated by Sir Patrick Vallance that worse case scenario of 80% infected has been used in modelling. Germans have used 70%.

    Generally, herd immunity is achieved at 60%.
    That's a worst case scenario - in other words, its not inevitable; its simply an extreme modelling assumption (usually to help with stress testing and designing more resilient policies). That's not the same as saying that 60-80% will be infected regardless of what government does or the behavioral changes that the public makes.
    Last edited by shurlock; 19-03-2020 at 04:36 PM.

  26. #726

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    Very interesting. Science is a pretty hands-on subject, so hard to see how you can teach a full course. I assume the platform supports only limited video - you can't literally see all your students at the same time, never mind pick up on their nonverbal cues? As you say, online platforms are serviceable if students are engaged (whio if anything require less help); but for others, they are pretty clunky. Wish you the best of luck!
    Gf is studying medicine. They have moved to online also. But years 3-5 are clinical - in hospital dealing with actual patients. How are you going to replicate that online? How will they get the experience necessary?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Doctoroncall View Post
    It’s been stated by Sir Patrick Vallance that worse case scenario of 80% infected has been used in modelling. Germans have used 70%.

    Generally, herd immunity is achieved at 60%.
    The point at which herd immunity is achieved depends on the infectivity of the virus and many other factors. 60% is arbitary.

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    As a mild Asthma sufferer, I was interested to know if steroid inhalers had any effect (beneficial or otherwise). This led me to the below articles, which I found informative.

    https://mainichi.jp/english/articles...0m/0na/026000c

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1....987016v1.full

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    Quote Originally Posted by buctootim View Post
    Gf is studying medicine. They have moved to online also. But years 3-5 are clinical - in hospital dealing with actual patients. How are you going to replicate that online? How will they get the experience necessary?
    What year is she in? I don’t see how you could study a subject like medicine online. At best they might partly restructure the curriculum and bring forward/load up on the more academic parts of the degree while students are away from uni/hospital but that’s less than ideal and obviously unsustainable over the long-term.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    What year is she in? I donít see how you could study a subject like medicine online. At best they might partly restructure the curriculum and bring forward/load up on the more academic parts of the degree while students are away from uni/hospital but thatís less than ideal and obviously unsustainable over the long-term.
    If it comes to it can't they just put the whole thing on pause for 6 months?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Duckhunter View Post
    Just catching up with the thread, looks like Soggy is the Coronavirus ITK.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
    Nope but his brother is along with his local GP.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    The context for the 60% herd immunisation figure is completely different.

    Its basically an estimate of how many people would need to be infected for the country to achieve herd immunity. Its a statement about what is required to make herd immunity work (fwiw an approach that has been debunked). It doesn't say that 60% will be infected. Its also based on the assumption that the government takes a hands-off, laissez-faire approach and lets the virus 'rip'. Again that's very different from saying that 60% of the population will be infected regardless whether the government intervenes, closes schools, introduces social distancing and takes other proactive measures.
    https://tass.com/world/1128867

    Quote Originally Posted by Merkel
    "We need to understand that the virus is already here, and as long as the population has no immunity against the virus, as long as there are no vaccines and no treatment, the share of the infected population will be high - experts talk about 60-70%," the chancellor said. She did not specify the period of the spread and the country. According to Merkel, the key thing is to slow down the spread of the virus. "We need to buy time," the chancellor said.

    Head of the Robert Koch Institute Lothar Wieler confirmed the 60-70% prediction. "We do not know how fast this will happen," he said. "The slower the better."

    Earlier, several German experts stated that one in three Germans might contract the virus. The Bild daily reports that Merkel had voiced similar predictions during a closed parliamentary session.

  33. #733

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    Quote Originally Posted by Document seen by the Guardian
    The document, seen by the Guardian, is a briefing for senior NHS officials and also reveals UK officials believe the deadly virus could last until Spring 2021. It states as many as 80 percent of Britons could become infected with the coronavirus, with as many as 7.9million requiring hospitalisation. The dossier states: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9m people) may require hospitalisation.”
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/12...ovid-19-latest

    Professor Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer for England, has previously stated the figure, that four fifths of the UK population could become infected with the virus, was the worst-case scenario.

    But the briefing states that 80 percent of Britons are "expected" to contract the virus.

  34. #734

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    What year is she in? I don’t see how you could study a subject like medicine online. At best they might partly restructure the curriculum and bring forward/load up on the more academic parts of the degree while students are away from uni/hospital but that’s less than ideal and obviously unsustainable over the long-term.
    She's only second year, but even in second year an important part is sitting in on surgery, GP consultations etc. The only students being physically allowed in are year 5. From the way the uni are talking in sounds as if they think its unlikely anyone will be back before the autumn term. Going to leave a big gap in practical experience at the least
    Last edited by buctootim; 18-03-2020 at 08:45 PM.

  35. #735

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    It’s impressive how many people on twitter have good contacts in the military and know that a total lockdown enforced by the army is coming.

    @sadoldgit, what have your sources heard? Can you confirm?

  36. #736

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    Just had a call from my brother, he's heard that toilet rolls are running out - you heard it here first folks!

  37. #737

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    And if all this isnít bad enough, Prince Philip has died again

  38. #738

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    This is the Imperial college epidemiology report which has been credited with shifting UK and US policy from slowing and delay to containment and suppression. Imperial push the latter but indicate people might need to isolate and distance for up to 18 months.

    I just dont see it working. People wont comply for that long and even if they did some additional people might avoid the virus but the country would be royally ****ed, economically and socially after 18 months of isolation

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf
    Last edited by buctootim; 18-03-2020 at 09:26 PM.

  39. #739

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    Quote Originally Posted by buctootim View Post
    This is the Imperial college epidemiology report which has been credited with shifting UK and US policy from slowing and delay to containment and suppression. Imperial push the latter but indicate people might need to isolate and distance for up to 18 months.

    I just dont see it working. People wont comply for that long and even if they did some additional people might avoid the virus but the country would be royally ****ed, economically and socially after 18 months of isolation

    https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imp...16-03-2020.pdf
    Precisely. The idea that we could have shut the entire country down, say, a month ago on the back of a handful of cases and single digit deaths was never going to play. Ditto shutdown for 18 months. For a lot of people, if that's the plan, you might as well just riot. Fu ck it.

    And the same applies at the other end of the suppression phase which I think us where it becomes much more difficult.

    There will be a point - let's call it the end of May - where collectively people will feel they have "done their bit" and actually wed quite like to go to work, have some fresh air and try and rebuild our decimated florist business/building firm/cabbie job.

    My main criticism of the government is the lack of testing and tracking and therefore the lack of data. I'll generously assume this will come through in the management of the exit-from-lockdown phase as I guess it may be used as a tool to "all-clear" areas/cities etc.

  40. Default

    I don't know if it's been suggested by the government yet, but surely an option to help the country in this time of need could be to requisition the Cunard liners and dock them in Southampton for the duration. They have a combined capacity of 6,830 beds (Southampton General Hospital has 1300 beds) and direct trains into ocean terminal would solve the patient transfer issues. Just a thought...

  41. #741

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    Arry's all over it

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    Quote Originally Posted by Guided Missile View Post
    I don't know if it's been suggested by the government yet, but surely an option to help the country in this time of need could be to requisition the Cunard liners and dock them in Southampton for the duration. They have a combined capacity of 6,830 beds (Southampton General Hospital has 1300 beds) and direct trains into ocean terminal would solve the patient transfer issues. Just a thought...
    It has been suggested, because I saw the suggestion on Twitter yesterday

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    Michel Barnier goes down with coronavirus.

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    China reporting no new cases of local transmission. I'd say that's optimistic at best.

  45. Default

    Germany has the lowest death rate in Europe, from covid-19. Unlike the UK, Germany has no test for determining the presence covid-19 on a post-mortem.

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    Whitty's discussing the rationale behind the UK's approach live on BBC currently. Seems like a very sensible chap. Speaks very well, inspires confidence despite the overriding uncertainty imo.

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    China reporting no new cases of local transmission. I'd say that's optimistic at best.
    The parallels between this and the Chernobyl disaster are quite compelling.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RedArmy View Post
    It’s impressive how many people on twitter have good contacts in the military and know that a total lockdown enforced by the army is coming.

    @sadoldgit, what have your sources heard? Can you confirm?
    So I'm gonna ignore health warnings and government guidelines because on Facebook, sandra who lives down the street, turns out to be a micro biologist, national economical expert, housing advisor, mortgage guru, GP and a national pandemic specialist. This sits alongside her talents of being an expert on EU politics and science around climate change..... who'd have thought?
    Only recently she was a full time mum selling bathbombs online... goes to show never judge a book by its cover!!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wes Tender View Post
    Michel Barnier goes down with coronavirus.
    Happy that the perfidious EU get what's coming to them, or distraught it will delay negotiations?

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    Quote Originally Posted by shurlock View Post
    China reporting no new cases of local transmission. I'd say that's optimistic at best.
    I used to do a lot of work on global fisheries stats. China was the only country globally where we knew they used to outright lie.

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