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We would be in the top 6...


benjii

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without the minus 10.

 

That is superb at this stage given the complete disgrace of an outfit this club became last season.

 

Well done to Pards, well done to the other staff, well done to the players, thank you Markus.

 

Now let's press on and get up that table.

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sorry to rain on the parade. great result today and great momentum. Play-offs are achievable.

 

BUT...one negative way of looking at it, is that we started the season 10 points away from the play-offs and now we're 9 points off the play-offs. With nearly half the season gone, we have only made up 1 point. Ok, we started slowly and are now motoring. However, there's a long way to go. Also, it goes without saying that the further we climb up the table, the harder it gets to climb higher still (cos the teams around us will typically be winning not losing).

 

I'd say we're about 50-50 to make the play-offs and about 35-65 to go up if we do make them. So, Im still looking at out promtion odds as about the same long-ish shot as England winning the World Cup in July.

Edited by SaintBobby
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sorry to rain on the parade. great result today and great momentum. Play-offs are achievable.

 

BUT...one negative way of looking at it, is that we started the season 10 points away from the play-offs and now we're 9 points off the play-offs. With nearly half the season gone, we have only made up 1 point. Ok, we started slowly and are now motoring. However, there's a long way to go. Also, it goes without saying that the further we climb up the table, the harder it gets to climb higher still (cos teh temas around us will typically be winning not losing).

 

I'd say we're about 50-50 to male the play-offs and about 35-65 to go up if we do make them. So, Im still looking at out promtion odds as about the same long-osh shot as England winning the World Cup in July.

 

The point I'm making is that we have been, this season, one of the top 6 sides.

 

Given the complete mess the club was in from top to bottom (no scouts, poor coaching, demoralised players, **** players etc) that is an excellent achievement in itself IMO.

 

I think the turnaround has been admirably quick.

 

We may or may not ultimately make the play-offs. I think it might depend what happend in January as I think the squad is still a bit too think in a couple of areas.

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The point I'm making is that we have been, this season, one of the top 6 sides.

 

Given the complete mess the club was in from top to bottom (no scouts, poor coaching, demoralised players, **** players etc) that is an excellent achievement in itself IMO.

 

I think the turnaround has been admirably quick.

 

We may or may not ultimately make the play-offs. I think it might depend what happend in January as I think the squad is still a bit too think in a couple of areas.

 

your point is a good one.

 

AP's signings have been pretty impressive(though our ability to leak goals must be driving him bonkers) and he has built a good side.

 

Playoffs and promotion are still a long shot, but as a football fan hope anfd loyalty( and credit card debt) are pretty much all you have.We are in there going for it, and that is a lot more fun than the last two seasons.

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What? :confused:

The 10 point deduction equates to about -0.2173913 points per game so to get a true reflection of where we sit in the table I have applied a deduction of 4.348 points (20 games out of 46) to the total of 32 that we have won, hence about 27.6 points. Aternatively you could wait until the end of the season and take the 10 points off then, which is when they actually take effect. :)

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sorry to rain on the parade. great result today and great momentum. Play-offs are achievable.

 

BUT...one negative way of looking at it, is that we started the season 10 points away from the play-offs and now we're 9 points off the play-offs. With nearly half the season gone, we have only made up 1 point. Ok, we started slowly and are now motoring. However, there's a long way to go. Also, it goes without saying that the further we climb up the table, the harder it gets to climb higher still (cos the teams around us will typically be winning not losing).

 

I'd say we're about 50-50 to make the play-offs and about 35-65 to go up if we do make them. So, Im still looking at out promtion odds as about the same long-ish shot as England winning the World Cup in July.

 

That is indeed a negative way of looking at it.

 

However if you choose to look at it in a positive way and say choose the last 10 games, which is 50% of the total games played. Of those 10 games we have 23 points from 30 on offer. 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss. So that would be based on the last 10 games an average of 2.3 points a game. If we then average that for the remaining 26 games we would gain another 59 points. Add that to our current total of 22 would mean we could have 81 points by end of season if we maintain the last 10 games ratio. If we look at last years table that would of had us 6th.

 

This season i dont think it will need as many points to get promoted as it is more competative with more teams able to beat each other. If we use 81 points based on the past few seasons it would have us finish around 3rd or 4th.

If we look at the league table after 20 games last year

http://www.zerozerofootball.com/edicao.php (you can work that out here)

The top team had 44 points which was Leicester and the 6th team had 36 points which was Oldham. Now if you compare that with this year you see Leeds have more points then Leicester did. But our 6th placed team this year has just 31 points. 5 points less then last year. If you take the 5th placed team they have 32 points etc..

 

So technically if we keep our last 10 games form into the 2nd half of the season we should make the playoffs. However if we have a blip in form that could cost us.

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I still maintain that the scumbag Lowe deliberately put us into admin after the deadline so that the club suffered - call it Lowe getting his revenge.

 

We can do this and make the play-offs and if we do it we'll have the momentum to follow it through.

 

Up the Saints.

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I still maintain that the scumbag Lowe deliberately put us into admin after the deadline so that the club suffered - call it Lowe getting his revenge.

 

Don't be stupid! :D

 

Why on earth would Lowe have deliberately put us into administration? He lost all his shares and one hell of alot of money! It was the creditors that forced us into admin at the time it happened, although it was mainly down to poor management at board level for many years from all regimes(Lowe, Crouch, Wilde etc) that it came to it.

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Don't be stupid! :D

 

Why on earth would Lowe have deliberately put us into administration? He lost all his shares and one hell of alot of money! It was the creditors that forced us into admin at the time it happened, although it was mainly down to poor management at board level for many years from all regimes(Lowe, Crouch, Wilde etc) that it came to it.

 

I'm talking about the timing. Lowe could have put us into admin a week or so earlier but IMO he took satisfaction in giving us the 10 point penalty for this season. To him he'd look at it as the fans not attending that cost him his investment so this was his way of getting a bit of vengeance.

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I'm talking about the timing. Lowe could have put us into admin a week or so earlier but IMO he took satisfaction in giving us the 10 point penalty for this season. To him he'd look at it as the fans not attending that cost him his investment so this was his way of getting a bit of vengeance.

 

Rupert Lowe was not the one that put the club into administration, it was out of his hands. The creditors called in the debt.

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The 10 point deduction equates to about -0.2173913 points per game so to get a true reflection of where we sit in the table I have applied a deduction of 4.348 points (20 games out of 46) to the total of 32 that we have won, hence about 27.6 points. Aternatively you could wait until the end of the season and take the 10 points off then, which is when they actually take effect. :)

 

What a bizarre way to think about it.

 

It's quite simple. You add 10 points on. That is the amount of points we have won. The amount we have won is the 6th highest.

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Rupert Lowe was not the one that put the club into administration, it was out of his hands. The creditors called in the debt.

 

No they didn't.

 

We exceeded our agreed borrowing limit and had no choice but to appoint administrators.

 

We must have known we would exceed our agreed limit but had banked (no pun intended) on receiving a temporary extension.

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What a bizarre way to think about it.

 

It's quite simple. You add 10 points on. That is the amount of points we have won. The amount we have won is the 6th highest.

Not bizarre at all. It indicates where we would finish the season if all teams continued with the same average form that they have shown so far. It is not indicative to apply a whole season's worth of deduction all at once.

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sorry to rain on the parade. great result today and great momentum. Play-offs are achievable.

 

BUT...one negative way of looking at it, is that we started the season 10 points away from the play-offs and now we're 9 points off the play-offs. With nearly half the season gone, we have only made up 1 point. Ok, we started slowly and are now motoring. However, there's a long way to go. Also, it goes without saying that the further we climb up the table, the harder it gets to climb higher still (cos the teams around us will typically be winning not losing).

 

I'd say we're about 50-50 to make the play-offs and about 35-65 to go up if we do make them. So, Im still looking at out promtion odds as about the same long-ish shot as England winning the World Cup in July.

 

You are right, that is negative :)

 

Lets put it this way - 2 weeks ago we were 13 points of a play-off place, now we are 9 and not even at the half way stage yet.

 

This really is a possibility.....lets not get too carried away but after years of dross and crap lets, just for a little while, be allowed to hope and dream......cos we aint had too much of either recently.

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i think the idea of being only 1 point closer to the play offs then at the start of the season is misleading....getting out of negative points and now out of the relagation zone is a massive mental lift....it must of been hard at the beginning to get up for the games in that position

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What a bizarre way to think about it.

 

It's quite simple. You add 10 points on. That is the amount of points we have won. The amount we have won is the 6th highest.

 

But getting the 6th highest number of points on the pitch won't be good enough to make the play offs (unless there is a 10 point gap between 6th and 7th place). Unfortunately the Football don't agree with you, and won't give us back our 10 points.

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For anyone being negative today, there's a bloody good reason why we jumped so many places today and ended up top of the 22 point brigade.

 

Goal difference.

 

We've got better goal difference than anyone in this league up to, and including 6th - which is exactly where we need to be.

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I predict that at the end of the season we will find that the minus 10 points has not really mattered. We will reach the play offs but even without the 10 point deduction we would not have made automatic promotion.

 

Leeds , I think are too far away to be caught by us. They are 24 points ahead . Either Norwich or Charlton will accompany them. They are 16 and 20 points clear of us - and I do not think that we would catch them even if we had the 10 points restored.

 

However I do think that we can still reach a play off position. We can make up enough ground to get into a top 6 position - and once in the play offs we will stand a great chance of winning.

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To the people complaining we have only made up 1 point over our deduction when looking at getting to the playoffs. Were we not trailing the play-offs by about 14/13 points at one stage?

 

As such we have made up 5 points since then. It is possible.

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To the people complaining we have only made up 1 point over our deduction when looking at getting to the playoffs. Were we not trailing the play-offs by about 14/13 points at one stage?

 

As such we have made up 5 points since then. It is possible.

 

we were 16 points off the top 6 when we lost to brighton last month i think!

 

it does show how quickly it can be made up....

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I'm talking about the timing. Lowe could have put us into admin a week or so earlier but IMO he took satisfaction in giving us the 10 point penalty for this season. To him he'd look at it as the fans not attending that cost him his investment so this was his way of getting a bit of vengeance.

 

Even if we had gone into administration before the deadline, I think the points deduction would have been carried over to this season anyway, as we were relegated through our performance on the pitch, not through a points deduction. Therefore a points deduction applied last season wouldn't really have been a punishment.

HTH

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Even if we had gone into administration before the deadline, I think the points deduction would have been carried over to this season anyway, as we were relegated through our performance on the pitch, not through a points deduction. Therefore a points deduction applied last season wouldn't really have been a punishment.

HTH

No, that's wrong. HT ****le burger.

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...one negative way of looking at it, is that we started the season 10 points away from the play-offs and now we're 9 points off the play-offs. With nearly half the season gone, we have only made up 1 point. Ok, we started slowly and are now motoring. However, there's a long way to go. Also, it goes without saying that the further we climb up the table, the harder it gets to climb higher still (cos the teams around us will typically be winning not losing)...

 

Yep, I take your point about it getting harder and yesterday, as a little excercise in tedium, I did a BBC Predictor for the remainder of the season, using Saints current level of form as a guide. We ended up in the playoffs [4th place actually], but it was a struggle, only hitting the playoff positions by March, as the other teams around us didn't falter, because all I could call upon was their form levels too.

 

But it doesn't work like that, does it. Often, teams falter, or go on a run of form. And it is only those teams that can maintain a high level overall, over the season, that achieve. So I'm hoping, indeed expecting one or two teams above us to falter, and it is up to Saints to fill one of those vacant spots.

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The 10 point deduction equates to about -0.2173913 points per game so to get a true reflection of where we sit in the table I have applied a deduction of 4.348 points (20 games out of 46) to the total of 32 that we have won, hence about 27.6 points. Aternatively you could wait until the end of the season and take the 10 points off then, which is when they actually take effect. :)

 

Not bizarre at all. It indicates where we would finish the season if all teams continued with the same average form that they have shown so far. It is not indicative to apply a whole season's worth of deduction all at once.

 

 

 

It is completely bizarre. If you ignore the ten point deduction you are left with the points we have gained in the games we've played, for real. Just like all the other teams.

 

32 points. We'd have 32 points if the minus ten wasn't in place. Simple.

 

This idea of "adding the deduction in gradually" is nonsense. This is a football league table, we're not making a souffle.

 

And, one last point, the points deduction don't "actually take effect" at the end of the season. They "took effect" the minute we got our golden share back in the summer. That's why we had a sodding great -10 figure next to us in the league before we'd kicked a ball. Christ.

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It is completely bizarre. If you ignore the ten point deduction you are left with the points we have gained in the games we've played, for real. Just like all the other teams.

 

32 points. We'd have 32 points if the minus ten wasn't in place. Simple.

 

This idea of "adding the deduction in gradually" is nonsense. This is a football league table, we're not making a souffle.

 

And, one last point, the points deduction don't "actually take effect" at the end of the season. They "took effect" the minute we got our golden share back in the summer. That's why we had a sodding great -10 figure next to us in the league before we'd kicked a ball. Christ.

You really don't understand the point of this, do you? The league table means sweet FA until the end of the season, so to get a true idea of how we are performing relative to the other teams in the same league, the only valid measure is to apply the deduction proportionate to the number of games played. Otherwise if the 10 points are applied at the beginning, their effect on our relative performance has an enormous effect at the start of the season, gradually reducing until at the end of the season to the average deduction per game that I quoted previously, which is a gross distortion. I appreciate that this concept may be a little difficult for you to understand, but the league table means nothing until the last game has been completed, and the -10 points likewise mean nothing until then.

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You really don't understand the point of this, do you? The league table means sweet FA until the end of the season, so to get a true idea of how we are performing relative to the other teams in the same league, the only valid measure is to apply the deduction proportionate to the number of games played. Otherwise if the 10 points are applied at the beginning, their effect on our relative performance has an enormous effect at the start of the season, gradually reducing until at the end of the season to the average deduction per game that I quoted previously, which is a gross distortion. I appreciate that this concept may be a little difficult for you to understand, but the league table means nothing until the last game has been completed, and the -10 points likewise mean nothing until then.

 

seems logical:confused:

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It is completely bizarre. If you ignore the ten point deduction you are left with the points we have gained in the games we've played, for real. Just like all the other teams.

 

32 points. We'd have 32 points if the minus ten wasn't in place. Simple.

 

This idea of "adding the deduction in gradually" is nonsense. This is a football league table, we're not making a souffle.

And, one last point, the points deduction don't "actually take effect" at the end of the season. They "took effect" the minute we got our golden share back in the summer. That's why we had a sodding great -10 figure next to us in the league before we'd kicked a ball. Christ.

 

Nice line!

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I can guarantee that we shall reach the playoffs because I have a holiday booked for the last 2 weeks of May next year. :(

 

Same as me l have booked the start of June off as lm going home to Thailand and did not want to miss play offs. Better to be safe then sorry

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You really don't understand the point of this, do you? The league table means sweet FA until the end of the season, so to get a true idea of how we are performing relative to the other teams in the same league, the only valid measure is to apply the deduction proportionate to the number of games played. Otherwise if the 10 points are applied at the beginning, their effect on our relative performance has an enormous effect at the start of the season, gradually reducing until at the end of the season to the average deduction per game that I quoted previously, which is a gross distortion. I appreciate that this concept may be a little difficult for you to understand, but the league table means nothing until the last game has been completed, and the -10 points likewise mean nothing until then.

 

:lol:

 

Your concept is misguided, although I admire your efforts!

 

To see how we have performed so far (the point of this thread) you add 10 points on. It really is as simple as that. The 10 points are a brute fact. At any given stage in the season our total will be 10 points less than the acummulated points won so far by the team.

 

"Pro rata" is a complete and utter nonsense in terms of informative value.

Edited by benjii
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It's pretty simple if you look at this way: The points deduction is technically applied at the start, but we have the whole 46 games to overcome it.

 

E.g. even if we'd won our first three games 8-0, we'd have still been bottom of the table after 3 games, but surely you'd look at our performances and say "wow, Southampton seem awesome, they will get promoted" not "Southampton are rooted to the bottom of the table, they are in a relegation scrap for sure."

 

In order to try and work out where we might end up at the end of the season, we really need to measure our trajectory. And that means we should see the 10 point penalty as something we need to get rid of over the course of the whole 46 games. Frankly, it's irrelavent whether the penalty was applied at the start of the season, at the end or at 3.27am on Tuesday week.

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You really don't understand the point of this, do you? The league table means sweet FA until the end of the season, so to get a true idea of how we are performing relative to the other teams in the same league, the only valid measure is to apply the deduction proportionate to the number of games played. Otherwise if the 10 points are applied at the beginning, their effect on our relative performance has an enormous effect at the start of the season, gradually reducing until at the end of the season to the average deduction per game that I quoted previously, which is a gross distortion. I appreciate that this concept may be a little difficult for you to understand, but the league table means nothing until the last game has been completed, and the -10 points likewise mean nothing until then.

 

 

Don't you think the gross "distortion" would be to pretend that on the first game of the season we had only minus 0.21 of a point deducted, when we had ten points deducted.

 

We had ten points deducted at the start of the season. Ten points deducted.

 

The league did not say "we are deducting 0.21 points for every game you play". They deducted ten points at the start of the seaosn.

 

For the games we've played, we've accumulated 32 points. So, in your dopey words "to get a true idea of how we are performing relative to the other teams in the same league, the only valid measure" is the fact we've accummulated 32 points. End of.

 

Because, at the start of the season we had ten points deducted. Not at the end of the season, as you claim. At the start of the season. We had ten points deducted then. At the start of the season. Ten points. Deducted. Start. Season. Of.

 

And, how are you measuring every other teams' points tally? Can you tell me how many points Leeds have currently, or Hartlepoool, or Exeter? Or is it only Southampton that have to have their current points divided into the games they haven't played yet?

 

Finally, again, in your words, I appreciate that this concept may be a little difficult for you to understand, but if the league table means nothing until the last game has been completedthen I strongly recommend you don't look at any league tables until Mid-May, because the ones you are looking at are making your little brain hurt. Bless.

 

 

Utter madness. But hilarious.

Edited by CB Fry
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It's pretty simple if you look at this way: The points deduction is technically applied at the start, but we have the whole 46 games to overcome it.

 

E.g. even if we'd won our first three games 8-0, we'd have still been bottom of the table after 3 games, but surely you'd look at our performances and say "wow, Southampton seem awesome, they will get promoted" not "Southampton are rooted to the bottom of the table, they are in a relegation scrap for sure."

 

In order to try and work out where we might end up at the end of the season, we really need to measure our trajectory. And that means we should see the 10 point penalty as something we need to get rid of over the course of the whole 46 games. Frankly, it's irrelavent whether the penalty was applied at the start of the season, at the end or at 3.27am on Tuesday week.

 

Yes, it's clearly true to say that a 10 point penalty applied over 1,000,000,000,000 games is not a problem whereas a 10 point penalty applied over 2 games is a disaster. Don't think anyone would argue with that!

 

The point is that I am assessing how we have done so far. We have done the 6th best. How do I know this? I added 10 on to our total and found out that we had scored 32 points which only five teams have bettered.

 

Then, the pro rata fella said:

 

Pro-rata we are on 27.65 points, in 11th place just below Millwall...

 

That is of no use to man nor beast.

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