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The Scottish Independence referendum


pap

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I was listening to More or Less on Radio 4 tonight, their show on stats.

 

This polling looks hugely unreliable. Much of it is being conducted online. No-one really knows if the sample frames are representative, and there are no precedents to help predict the result.

 

The expert pollster admitted that the industry could end up seeing a miscalculation of 1992 proportions.

In favour of which outcome (did they say)?

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In favour of which outcome (did they say)?

 

Yes would be the surprise result given the polling so far. Most polls have put no in the lead.

 

There were some other interesting areas of discussion. One area they looked at was the potential infiltration of the poll group by ardent supporters of either camp, p'raps detectable by a high number of sign-ups. Apparently from the start of the year to now, only 240 people have been added to their sample groups, which the ICM reckoned was a normal count. I'm not entirely sure how other companies are doing their polling, but it was certainly an interesting programme.

 

They even got a bit of time to chat about the phenomenon of the "ashamed Tory" vote (someone that says they'll vote for someone else because of the Nasty Party tag but actually intends on voting Tory).

Edited by pap
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who said it was?

I just find it very interesting as I have many friends working and living in and around Glasgow (the English ones are pretty much on self imposed house arrest)

I will be in trafalgar square tomorrow night (Just so happen to work around the corner, so will pop along)

 

I find this engaging as a YES vote will have monumental implications for my job.

That and the sight of demented thugs (Yessers) attacking anything that does not agree with them, verbally and physically. BBC is now the new target. It takes the attention from Salmonds lack of responses to questions asking if Westminster and businesses refuse to toe his line

 

someone like you, I would have thought you would welcome people being interested in this sort of stuff

 

I've got nothing against you being interested in this, in fact it's good that people are taking an interest. You just seem to be constantly doom-mongering!

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who said it was?

I just find it very interesting as I have many friends working and living in and around Glasgow (the English ones are pretty much on self imposed house arrest)

I will be in trafalgar square tomorrow night (Just so happen to work around the corner, so will pop along)

 

I find this engaging as a YES vote will have monumental implications for my job.

That and the sight of demented thugs (Yessers) attacking anything that does not agree with them, verbally and physically. BBC is now the new target. It takes the attention from Salmonds lack of responses to questions asking if Westminster and businesses refuse to toe his line

 

someone like you, I would have thought you would welcome people being interested in this sort of stuff

 

So basically, your big objections to Scottish independence come down to an irrational hatred of Salmond plus your own self-interest?

 

Why haven't you told Better Together about this line of argument? Slam dunk, once those poor Scots hear of your woes :)

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Just on lunch off the strand. Some guy round the corner giving out yes stickers is ranting saying that when the tap is turned off to the English, the Scottish people in Scotland will have money and oil raining on them.

 

So your job, that depends heavily on Scotland, actually benefits you in Central London?

 

Priceless. The issue in a one-man microcosm.

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Viking, will also add that the expansion going on at the Clyde naval base is huge. In 5 years or so, there will be about 10k people (both military and civilian) working inside the naval base. The money being spent in that area (inside and out of the base) is vast.

It will be the largest submarine base outside of the USA. With 750 royal marines, a full diving unit, a squadron of minesweepers and the facility for a large number of major warships to come alongside. Not forgetting ALL of the UKs submarines....This is money and assets that will be taken away from both Pompey and Plymouth dockyards. Who are both (more so plymouth) fighting for it's very survival

 

 

The real important question : how many chefs ? ;)

 

Seriously, I agree with your point about shipbuilding. They were bribed with it at the cost of the sacrificial calf that is Portsmouth, yet still they whine. Salmond and Wee Jimmy Krankie will never be satisfied with the amount of assorting leeching and blackmail they succeed with.

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Viking, will also add that the expansion going on at the Clyde naval base is huge. In 5 years or so, there will be about 10k people (both military and civilian) working inside the naval base. The money being spent in that area (inside and out of the base) is vast.

It will be the largest submarine base outside of the USA. With 750 royal marines, a full diving unit, a squadron of minesweepers and the facility for a large number of major warships to come alongside. Not forgetting ALL of the UKs submarines....This is money and assets that will be taken away from both Pompey and Plymouth dockyards. Who are both (more so plymouth) fighting for it's very survival

 

The base right now adds about £50m to the local economy. Let alone what that figure will be towards the end of the decade

 

I saw one YES type (on telly) brand the people of Helensburgh (who are generally a NO) posh Tory puppets who are not real Scottish people.

 

I am staggered when is see a yes type claim the Britain neglects Scotland when it comes to defence. As Pompey lose ship building, Glasgow gains. As plymouth sells off parts of its dockyard, Helensburgh gains.

 

Haven't you signed the official secrets act???

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The real important question : how many chefs ? ;)

 

Seriously, I agree with your point about shipbuilding. They were bribed with it at the cost of the sacrificial calf that is Portsmouth, yet still they whine. Salmond and Wee Jimmy Krankie will never be satisfied with the amount of assorting leeching and blackmail they succeed with.

 

Scotland; don't listen to Alps. He has a very warped view of the UK. He tried to move back, couldn't hack it, bailed back to Yodel land after two weeks and now spends most of his time griping about it.

 

He doesn't live here no more :)

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Pap

 

Your barking up the worng avenue, I know exactly where Batman is coming from , Its a shame that you you dont understand the atmosphere up here .

The more vocal yes candidates will not listen to reasoned arguments from the undecided and no people, They think they are so smug and love shouting down those with a difffering view point

 

Whatever happens this thursday. There will be a divided nation up here and lots of hurt , frustration and anger on one side or the other

 

So Pap stay safe in your Ivory tower.

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I asked Mr Salmond what should I do

should I say yes or should I say no

Heres what he said to me

Wash yer mouth my son and listen to the prodigal son

and suport the yes ,

 

We Hate the English , We Hate the Enmglish and the Tories

 

Oh and All former and serving British Servicemen and women are murderers

 

B;loody Krankies

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Pap

 

Your barking up the worng avenue, I know exactly where Batman is coming from , Its a shame that you you dont understand the atmosphere up here .

The more vocal yes candidates will not listen to reasoned arguments from the undecided and no people, They think they are so smug and love shouting down those with a difffering view point

 

Whatever happens this thursday. There will be a divided nation up here and lots of hurt , frustration and anger on one side or the other

 

So Pap stay safe in your Ivory tower.

 

I have no idea what things are like in Scotland, but to be frank, I'm doubting I'm going to get a balanced perspective from either yourself or Jamie on the issue. You're both approaching the subject with no imagination, both utterly fallen for all of the scare stories that have been doing the rounds in the news, both crippled by the conceit that independence means that Scotland will somehow continue to do things as badly as Westminster.

 

Batman's credibility on the issue is non-existent, based on his dislike of Salmond and the fact that he'll have to find a new job.

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Soneone I work with posted the verdict of a case there were working on in court onto Facebook. Even though it was in the public domain at that point they still got into grief for putting it on social media.

 

but that was on social media

everything I have stated has been published by official sources on the internet. massive difference

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I have no idea what things are like in Scotland, but to be frank, I'm doubting I'm going to get a balanced perspective from either yourself or Jamie on the issue. You're both approaching the subject with no imagination, both utterly fallen for all of the scare stories that have been doing the rounds in the news, both crippled by the conceit that independence means that Scotland will somehow continue to do things as badly as Westminster.

 

Batman's credibility on the issue is non-existent, based on his dislike of Salmond and the fact that he'll have to find a new job.

 

great, when it comes to May. Your credibility will also be non-existent due to your dislike of the tories no matter what

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I have no idea what things are like in Scotland, but to be frank, I'm doubting I'm going to get a balanced perspective from either yourself or Jamie on the issue. You're both approaching the subject with no imagination, both utterly fallen for all of the scare stories that have been doing the rounds in the news, both crippled by the conceit that independence means that Scotland will somehow continue to do things as badly as Westminster.

 

 

V funny :)

 

You are to 'balanced perspectives' what Jack the Ripper is to women's rights ...

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great, when it comes to May. Your credibility will also be non-existent due to your dislike of the tories no matter what

 

V funny :)

 

You are to 'balanced perspectives' what Jack the Ripper is to women's rights ...

 

Show some propers, you pair of fúckmuppets.

 

You're addressing the Lounge Act of 2013.

 

Credibilty :)

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I was just watching the salmon man on the news. He thinks he is gonna win because Scottish people are dumb and just like to vote yes to things. That's what he said! I spose he was thinking bout when Susan Boyle won x-factor. The salmon man thinks that if the question was phrased different, if it was "Do you want to stay part of UK?" then he would prob lose.

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Pap , I haven't fallen for the scare stories, again you are off the mark . Even yes voters are concerned about the future and do not understand King Alex reasoning . Those that work in the oil industry are quietly saying the oil reserves are not as big as salmond states . Yes there could be some good areas . We already gave some like free prescriptions for all, I actually disagree with this .

 

The SNP have already divided the western and northern Isles . They favour the western islands and give them more benefits cash and not to mention the RET funding . Spurgeon gives massive subsidies to them and supporting their ferry system Orkney and Shetland do not get that and Orkney are the poor country cousins when it comes to support from the Scottish Gov . We have very aging ferries but no support from The SNP to help replace them unlike western isles

 

We have an initiative called our isles our future . Sounds good but lots of false promises coming out of holyrood , still let's see what happens on Friday .

 

So Pap it's not about scare stories it's about being realistic , and yes I am worried about the break up of the union. . There's going to be a lot of turbulence for several years to come if it is a yes vote . There's a lot of violence , abuse and threats going around its in both sides but the yes campaigners are the biggest culprits . I woman got smacked in the nose today by a yes male thug because she was a no supporter . It's okay to wear a yes sticker but wear a no sticker or put one in your window and you may end up with a brick thru your window or a smack in the face .

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It seems to me following the debate from afar that the "establishment" are all saying vote No, along with a lot of scare stories but the real issue to me that is coming out will it be a trend for the future, how will the EU referendum be run, or if a minor party starts to win seats will they subject to the same.

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Good article in the New Statesman, arguing that whatever the result, Westminster politicians have never looked so powerless.

 

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/09/even-if-union-endures-last-vestiges-westminster-s-authority-have-been-washed-away

 

 

Whether Cameron would survive as PM following a Yes vote is now the subject of constant discussion among MPs. “He would be in maximum danger,” a senior Tory says. The referendum agreement he signed with Salmond in October 2012, praised at the time, has not aged well. Conservative MPs point to the timing of the vote, the wording of the question, and the decision to enfranchise 16-to-17-year-olds as careless errors. If Cameron’s resignation is demanded, this will be the case for the prosecution. But most suggest that the cause of stability, amid an unparalleled constitutional crisis, would demand he remain in place. Others, determined to prevent the question even arising, lament their futility. “As a woman with a southern English accent, I’ve been told to keep quiet,” one Tory MP tells me.

 

 

 

If the prospect of Scotland seceding has created general panic across Westminster, it is greatest among Labour. Shadow cabinet ministers use four-letter Anglo-Saxonisms to describe their party’s reaction. While the loss of Scotland would cost the Tories a single MP (the same number as Carswell’s defection), it would cost Labour 40. The electoral consequences of independence should not be exaggerated; on only two occasions since 1945 would the identity of the winning party have changed (in 1964 and February 1974, both Labour victories). But in advance of what strategists have long acknowledged will be a “close” election, Ed Miliband cannot afford to lose 16 per cent of his parliamentary party.

 

 

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1.jpg

 

Does this do ya?

 

Cheers papster, I'd seen a lower res version that I couldn't read, but I'm intrigued that I couldn't find the text. I wonder if this an advert or party-political and as such the press can't report on it? Perhaps I just didn't Google for long enough.

 

I wonder if it will convince anyone north of the border that otherwise wouldn't trust politicians?

 

I wonder if those south of the border that feel the Barnett formula is unfair, will feel aggrieved at the special treatment for Scotland.

 

An interesting move.

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I first set foot in Scotland many years ago when walking the Pennine Way with my mate. We crossed the border somewhere over the Cheviots, and I was quite surprised that it was denoted by just a simple wire fence – back then I was unaware that borders are often represented by no more than a line on a map, and that sometimes this line is subject to change.

 

We took the obligatory crossing-the-border photos, observed that Scottish mud clung to our boots just the same as English mud, and carried on our way. It was the first time I’d set foot on ‘foreign’ soil, so it was probably the first time that I’d thought about my own sense of national identity. I remember pondering on the following:

 

When did ‘ordinary’ people – not kings, queens, tsars, kaisers, emperors etc, but just ‘ordinary’ people – first gain a sense of their own national identity. Which one of my peasant ancestors first looked down and said: “I’m so glad I’m breaking my back digging My Nation’s earth”, or looked up and said: “I’m so glad I’m being p1ssed upon by rain falling from My Nation’s heaven, or woke up saying: “I’m so glad to shed blood or lay down my life for My Nation’s landscape / people / culture / customs / whatever? In fact, when was the first time one of my peasant ancestors even realised there was such a thing as My Nation beyond his local market place?

 

I still don’t know the answer to these questions; however, I’ve read recently that, during the last couple of centuries, American settlers from different parts of the world, although able to name their former village, town or region, often struggled to name their former nation – so perhaps this sense of national identity is a relatively recent thing.

 

Anyway, what interests me nowadays is how this sense of national identity – seemingly so important to so many of us – is going to pan out in future. Is it going to get stronger or weaker? Are nations going to break up into ever smaller entities, perhaps even returning to something like medieval times when real power tended to be vested more in confederations of cities than in nations? Are national divides going to be determined more by religion, ethnicity, cultural values etc than by geography? Or are individual nations going to be consumed by the creation of homologous supernations?

 

Punch-ups in Scotland, conflict in Ukraine, indiscriminate bombing in Gaza and Israel, merciless slaughter in Syria and Iraq – one thing seems fairly certain: erstwhile dreamers’ utopian vision of One World One Nation still seems some way off.

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Top video Pap. some of glasgee's finest :o

 

I reckon it will be a NO and it will be closer to 60/40 in their favour

I also predict A LOT of trouble next weekend in parts of Glasgow (more so than normal lol)

 

I also reckon that it will spell the end of Alex Salmond as the SNP leader and Sturgeon will plot to take over in the coming months.

She does not appeal to the masses like he can and will start a decline for SNP popularity

 

I think this has woken up Labour up there and in the coming years, Gordon Brown will end up being First Minister

 

As for the UK, this will lead to serious questions asked about an English parliament and it will be demanded. More people will drift away from Cameron to UKIPs advantage and Labour will be in government come May time, with UKIP having a decent representation in Parliament with Farage being there (and of course, Boris)

 

Either way, im sure you will be happy that this whole thing has sparked great interest in politics from all sides.

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Top video Pap. some of glasgee's finest :o

 

I reckon it will be a NO and it will be closer to 60/40 in their favour

I also predict A LOT of trouble next weekend in parts of Glasgow (more so than normal lol)

 

I also reckon that it will spell the end of Alex Salmond as the SNP leader and Sturgeon will plot to take over in the coming months.

She does not appeal to the masses like he can and will start a decline for SNP popularity

 

I think this has woken up Labour up there and in the coming years, Gordon Brown will end up being First Minister

 

As for the UK, this will lead to serious questions asked about an English parliament and it will be demanded. More people will drift away from Cameron to UKIPs advantage and Labour will be in government come May time, with UKIP having a decent representation in Parliament with Farage being there (and of course, Boris)

 

Either way, im sure you will be happy that this whole thing has sparked great interest in politics from all sides.

 

If they elect him as first minister then they are even more stupid that I thought possible

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I reckon it will be a NO and it will be closer to 60/40 in their favour

 

Agree, the Jocks must have rocks in the their head to vote for independence without having a concrete plan for their currency. "Britain will probably let us use the pound" is not a plan.

 

Them leaving the UK would mean they are competing with an inevitably hostile Tory run England that may not even be in the EU, makes no sense.

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Top video Pap. some of glasgee's finest :o

 

I reckon it will be a NO and it will be closer to 60/40 in their favour

I also predict A LOT of trouble next weekend in parts of Glasgow (more so than normal lol)

 

I also reckon that it will spell the end of Alex Salmond as the SNP leader and Sturgeon will plot to take over in the coming months.

She does not appeal to the masses like he can and will start a decline for SNP popularity

 

I think this has woken up Labour up there and in the coming years, Gordon Brown will end up being First Minister

 

As for the UK, this will lead to serious questions asked about an English parliament and it will be demanded. More people will drift away from Cameron to UKIPs advantage and Labour will be in government come May time, with UKIP having a decent representation in Parliament with Farage being there (and of course, Boris)

 

Either way, im sure you will be happy that this whole thing has sparked great interest in politics from all sides.

 

I think you are a prize d*ck, but this scenario sounds entirely plausible.

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I think you are a prize d*ck, but this scenario sounds entirely plausible.

 

Fair play to Batman for sticking his neck out, but that sounds like a list of what he wants for Christmas, rather than any serious (and sourced) political viewpoint.

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Good luck to the Scots on Thursday, I hope they show the courage not to be bullied by the establishment & state institutions, and make their own decision based on what they believe is best for them, their families and their common man.

 

Everyone seems to be banging on about UK wealth, prosperity et al, conveniently forgetting the 1,000,000 people reliant on food banks (in supposedly one of the richest countries on earth).

 

We tell them they will not be able to run their own 'welfare state', whilst we forget the 1,000,000 odd youngsters out of all education, training or gainful employment.

 

The 'one percent' of our nation have more wealth than the rest of the country combined, whilst we all sit back and watch the ideological privatisation of our countries resources, ironically being sold off to the one percent.

 

Our police see fit to produce a European arrest warrant, to throw the parents in jail, of a boy who is being denied potentially lifesaving cancer therapy. The same police 'force' who let a boy drown to death in a lake as the police in attendance stood by and waited 15 minutes for healthy and safety clearance.

 

Our communities are being disenfranchised in the name of jihad, whilst we all sit back and watch our rights and freedoms slowly dissolve under the guise of national security.

 

Good luck to Scotland!

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