Russia

[rallyboy]

Why have we still not seized or frozen the London assets of the vast majority of those UK-passported Russians linked to Putin?

I fully understand why we don't want to shoot down planes, but there is so much more that can be done in our own backyard that will both damage Putin and help us to clean up our economy.

[badgerx16]

2 minutes ago, rallyboy said:

Why have we still not seized or frozen the London assets of the vast majority of those UK-passported Russians linked to Putin?

I fully understand why we don't want to shoot down planes, but there is so much more that can be done in our own backyard that will both damage Putin and help us to clean up our economy.

How many are Tory party donors ?

[kyle04]

6 hours ago, benjii said:

By the way, Gary Kasparov is an interesting person to follow on Twitter. He's been writing about Putin for years and pretty much predicted all this.

He featured in a recent mini series on BBC2 recently about Hilters Barbarossa campaign against Stalin/Russia. Very knowledgable man.

[kyle04]

31 minutes ago, rallyboy said:

Why have we still not seized or frozen the London assets of the vast majority of those UK-passported Russians linked to Putin?

I fully understand why we don't want to shoot down planes, but there is so much more that can be done in our own backyard that will both damage Putin and help us to clean up our economy.

Probably because we haven't been bothered to keep track of the Russian dirty money flooding into this country, now having to account for it in a hurry.

[AlexLaw76]

An alternative view on the future (thread)

 

[buctootim]

53 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

An alternative view on the future (thread)

I don't think so. Putin will go and Russia will pivot back to the West. Most Russians feel European, even those living in the far East. They are really afraid of China and feel very much the junior partner. Within the European orbit they would be a leading somebody.    

[revolution saint]

Genuine question but how many of these oligarchs already have most of their cash stashed in off shore tax havens that presumably they can still access?  I know a lot has been made about all the sanctions that have been imposed but no one has really mentioned about the off shore stuff.  

[badgerx16]

Putin has created a very revisionist view of history to justify his twisted logic of resisting Western/European "expansion". This is entirely down to him, and the clique that surround and pander to him.

[Lighthouse]

21 minutes ago, buctootim said:

I don't think so. Putin will go and Russia will pivot back to the West. Most Russians feel European, even those living in the far East. They are really afraid of China and feel very much the junior partner. Within the European orbit they would be a leading somebody.    

I'd agree with that. It may take a couple of decades but the younger generation will have no desire to uphold an autocratic state which is ultimately China's b*tch in Europe. 

[Sheaf Saint]

1 hour ago, AlexLaw76 said:

An alternative view on the future (thread)

Hmmm. A quick look down this guy's timeline shows he has an extreme pro-Russian / anti-western bias. I'm not so stupid as to believe that all western news reporting is fair and accurate and that everything from Russia isn't, but to claim that this is all the fault of the west is just absurd. He also seems to like sharing stuff showing a very one-sided view of Ukrainian 'atocities' in Donbas over the last 8 years, without acknowledging Russia's involvement in the instigation of that campaign. 

I understand that Putin doesn't like the idea of Ukraine joining NATO/EU, but the reason for them desiring that is because they felt there was a threat to them from Russia that they needed protecting from, given Putin's previous form for aggression towards their neighbours. All Putin has done is prove them to be absolutely correct in that belief. 

[Jimmy_D]

6 hours ago, AlexLaw76 said:

None of us know what was calculated or not.  There are lots of assumptions that Putin would have expected to have this wrapped up by now. How do we know? The chatter of Putin expecting this to take a day or so is ridiculous IMO. All part of the information war to paint this invasion as a failure from the off.

Compare this to our invasions, they take/took a while, last decades and that is after we relentlessly bomb the place into to submission, using some horrific munitions. 

For what ever reason, Russia have left their Airforce largely grounded. A view could be as obliterating the country from the air into submission is not an option. More so when he probably believes there is a sizable pro-Russian view from within.

And a strand that does worry me, is if the US inch towards 'enforcing' a no-fly zone over Ukraine. That will mean we will, and that changes the situation a lot.

As soon as Putin went from ‘just’ occupying the separatist regions, to a full scale assault of the whole of Ukraine, the only way it makes sense is if they were expecting their disinformation war to have been far more successful and for the Ukrainian people to welcome them.

Russian units advanced way ahead of supply lines, looks like they wanted to have forces in place to accept a quick surrender, with very few casualties, and Putin be able to claim he was liberating Ukraine.

If he’d have been able to claim he was there with the will of the people, the West would have been far more divided on how to respond.

Now Putin is trapped as he’d look even weaker to back down, but the cost of switching to heavier tactics that have killed many civilians is high for him. Decades of Russian efforts to create division in NATO have evaporated overnight, other countries that Putin wants to return to the Russian Empire have been pushed towards NATO and the EU, Western perception of Russia’s conventional warfare capabilities have been significantly reduced, sanctions that would have been unthinkable two weeks ago are already in place, Russian people are protesting in huge numbers, and the longer this all goes on, more and more of Putin’s allies are distancing themselves from him.

I don’t know what Putin was hoping for going into this, but it wasn’t that.

[AlexLaw76]

16 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

As soon as Putin went from ‘just’ occupying the separatist regions, to a full scale assault of the whole of Ukraine, the only way it makes sense is if they were expecting their disinformation war to have been far more successful and for the Ukrainian people to welcome them.

Russian units advanced way ahead of supply lines, looks like they wanted to have forces in place to accept a quick surrender, with very few casualties, and Putin be able to claim he was liberating Ukraine.

If he’d have been able to claim he was there with the will of the people, the West would have been far more divided on how to respond.

Now Putin is trapped as he’d look even weaker to back down, but the cost of switching to heavier tactics that have killed many civilians is high for him. Decades of Russian efforts to create division in NATO have evaporated overnight, other countries that Putin wants to return to the Russian Empire have been pushed towards NATO and the EU, Western perception of Russia’s conventional warfare capabilities have been significantly reduced, sanctions that would have been unthinkable two weeks ago are already in place, Russian people are protesting in huge numbers, and the longer this all goes on, more and more of Putin’s allies are distancing themselves from him.

I don’t know what Putin was hoping for going into this, but it wasn’t that.

You have based that on very little, other than what is fed to us via news, social media and your own predetermined views.

None of us have much of an idea what they wanted. Only a few weeks ago, this was a stunt and the Russians were going home.

I have no idea how much of a land mass Russia control, but let's say it is the size of England, or even the UK (minus London / Kyiv). This has been achieved in a western country within a week against a battle-hardened opponent with years of significant military assistance from the the US/UK, with the majority of the advanced world cutting him off.  I actually find it quite chilling / alarming what they have done and at that pace, given the relative restraint and little use if their Airforce.

that is not me cheering what he has done, but there are so many stories out there, presuming what Putin, Russia or anyone wanted to happen - no plan survives first contact.

 

Edited 2 March, 2022 by AlexLaw76

[buctootim]

2 hours ago, kyle04 said:

He featured in a recent mini series on BBC2 recently about Hilters Barbarossa campaign against Stalin/Russia. Very knowledgable man.

This is worth a look. Putin in 7 minutes. 

 

[Jimmy_D]

1 minute ago, AlexLaw76 said:

You have based that on very little, other than what is fed to us via news, social media and your own predetermined views.

None of us have much of an idea what they wanted. Only a few weeks ago, this was a stunt and the Russians were going home.

I have no idea how much of a land mass Russia control, but let's say it is the size of England, or even the UK (minus London / Kyiv). This has been achieved in a western country within a week against a battle-hardened opponent with years significant military assistance from the the US/UK, with the majority of the advanced world cutting him off.  

that is not me cheering what he has done, but there are so many stories out there, presuming what Putin, Russia or anyone wanted to happen - no plan survives first contact.

 

Putin might have claimed he was packing up and going home, but no Western intelligence believed that for a second.

Most of the land mass currently controlled is empty, ceded in order to concentrate on defending key targets, and on top of that is still very much contested. Painting that as already having a huge success is ridiculous.

[AlexLaw76]

2 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

Putin might have claimed he was packing up and going home, but no Western intelligence believed that for a second.

Most of the land mass currently controlled is empty, ceded in order to concentrate on defending key targets, and on top of that is still very much contested. Painting that as already having a huge success is ridiculous.

How do you know it was ceded? Why was it ceded? We don't know. Just assuming to fit your PoV.

Either way, they are able to control a pretty big area, circling major cities, in a western country within a week and without much use of their Airforce.

I doubt many thought that was possible just a few month back.

[Colinjb]

5 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

How do you know it was ceded? Why was it ceded? We don't know. Just assuming to fit your PoV.

Either way, they are able to control a pretty big area, circling major cities, in a western country within a week and without much use of their Airforce.

I doubt many thought that was possible just a few month back.

What has struck me most is the lack of information in our media regarding Ukrainian troop movements. This tells me they are either all in defensive positions or there is a conscious decision not to leak anything into the public domain.

Based on troop numbers on Wikipedia (not gospel.....) Russia are outnumbered. So where are they? It would make the ceeding areas point prudent as there is no point defending empty space when there are key settlements and infrastructure to hold. (Sumi, Karkiv, Kyiv.)

Edited 2 March, 2022 by Colinjb

[Jimmy_D]

5 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

How do you know it was ceded? Why was it ceded? We don't know. Just assuming to fit your PoV.

Either way, they are able to control a pretty big area, circling major cities, in a western country within a week and without much use of their Airforce.

I doubt many thought that was possible just a few month back.

There’s no tactical advantage in defending empty ground with very little cover.

Who were these people thinking Ukraine had any chance against a huge Russian military force a month ago?

[buctootim]

5 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

How do you know it was ceded? Why was it ceded? We don't know. Just assuming to fit your PoV.

Either way, they are able to control a pretty big area, circling major cities, in a western country within a week and without much use of their Airforce.

I doubt many thought that was possible just a few month back.

It's not just a random POV though. Its logical to defend the cities where you have shelter, warmth, communications and places to hide and make the enemy sit outside in a barren field  during a Ukranian winter  

[Lighthouse]

8 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

How do you know it was ceded? Why was it ceded? We don't know. Just assuming to fit your PoV.

Either way, they are able to control a pretty big area, circling major cities, in a western country within a week and without much use of their Airforce.

I doubt many thought that was possible just a few month back.

Why would they defend it? It's just farmland, they'd be exposed with no cover from artillery or airstrikes, no amenities, food or shelter, it'd be a completely pointless waste of life.

I once drove 2/3 the way down France in less than a day and without air support. Is that impressive?

[badgerx16]

13 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

How do you know it was ceded? Why was it ceded? We don't know. Just assuming to fit your PoV.

Either way, they are able to control a pretty big area, circling major cities, in a western country within a week and without much use of their Airforce.

I doubt many thought that was possible just a few month back.

Simply referring to Ukraine as a "western country" doesn't alter the raw facts; the Russian army's regular strength is 5 times that of Ukraine, Russia has ( had ) 5 times as many AFVs, 10 times as many aircraft, 20 times as many helos. Also the best of Russia's kit is much better,on paper, than the best of Ukraine's, and Russia has much more capable technological warfare capabilities.

Retreating to more urbanised areas adjusts the strength disparity in the defender's favour and reduces the effectiveness of long range or heavily armoured weapon systems.

Edited 2 March, 2022 by badgerx16

[whelk]

Batman excelling again I see. 

[badgerx16]

Just now, whelk said:

Batman excelling again I see. 

Now, if Ukraine had a submarine.......

[Sheaf Saint]

1 minute ago, badgerx16 said:

Now, if Ukraine had a submarine.......

He'd be able to whip you up a nice spag bol.

[Whitey Grandad]

26 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

How do you know it was ceded? Why was it ceded? We don't know. Just assuming to fit your PoV.

Either way, they are able to control a pretty big area, circling major cities, in a western country within a week and without much use of their Airforce.

I doubt many thought that was possible just a few month back.

That's not true, and you know it. The only land they control is what they are standing on.

[Whitey Grandad]

8 minutes ago, badgerx16 said:

Now, if Ukraine had a submarine.......

It used to. Ten years ago they were allocated two from the Soviet fleet. The "worst two" according to our Ukrainian guide who was married to a submarine Lieutenant. I don't think they still have them.

[kyle04]

It's true the regular Russian army is estimated to be around 900,000, whilst Ukraine, with reservists estimated at 500,000. However if you count non military personel now taking up arms the numbers stack up heavily in favour of Ukraine, since Russia so far has deployed around 150,000 in the assault. They're heavily out-gunned in terms of weaponry, but the stingers and Turkish drones have proved very effective and more weapons are being sent daily. The whole world (nearly) is backing Ukraine, sanctions, weapons, medical supplies, hackers disrupting Russian systems, an Oligarch offering $1M for the head of Putin, Anonymous offering cash for every Russian tank crew that surrenders, ths list goes on. The game changer will be air power, something Russia has used very sparingly thus far. What can't be quantified is the human spirit, Ukrainians will fight to the last for their homeland, Russian soldiers are losing morale and many don't even know what they're doing there.

In 1996 Ukraine handed over its nuclear arsenal to Russia, in exchange for a guarantee of never being threatened or invaded.

[badgerx16]

10 minutes ago, Whitey Grandad said:

It used to. Ten years ago they were allocated two from the Soviet fleet. The "worst two" according to our Ukrainian guide who was married to a submarine Lieutenant. I don't think they still have them.

They took control of one diesel-electric sub when they split from Russia, it was unserviceable because it's batteries were knackered. Eventually it was being refitted, but was seized by Russia when Crimea was annexed. It has since been deemed to be obselete.

[badgerx16]

9 minutes ago, kyle04 said:

It's true the regular Russian army is estimated to be around 900,000, whilst Ukraine, with reservists estimated at 500,000. However if you count non military personel now taking up arms the numbers stack up heavily in favour of Ukraine, since Russia so far has deployed around 150,000 in the assault. They're heavily out-gunned in terms of weaponry, but the stingers and Turkish drones have proved very effective and more weapons are being sent daily. The whole world (nearly) is backing Ukraine, sanctions, weapons, medical supplies, hackers disrupting Russian systems, an Oligarch offering $1M for the head of Putin, Anonymous offering cash for every Russian tank crew that surrenders, ths list goes on. The game changer will be air power, something Russia has used very sparingly thus far. What can't be quantified is the human spirit, Ukrainians will fight to the last for their homeland, Russian soldiers are losing morale and many don't even know what they're doing there.

In 1996 Ukraine handed over its nuclear arsenal to Russia, in exchange for a guarantee of never being threatened or invaded.

If you count reservists, Russia has over 2 million troops. However, a dispirited army is no more than a rabble, no matter how large it is.

Edited 2 March, 2022 by badgerx16

[AlexLaw76]

Haha, all fair points.

My wider point is that assuming all expected this to be over by now is rather false IMO.

It took the "coalition of the willing" nearly 3 weeks to assume 'control' of Baghdad in 2003, that was with one of the biggest bombardments at the time (shock and awe). Let alone Ukraine, a more advanced country, with a battle-hardened army armed with the best weapons supplied by the US/UK for years. 

 

 

[badgerx16]

Meanwhile in Moscow......

 

"In the Presnenskoye police department, children and their parents are left overnight. The police detained them when they laid flowers at the Ukrainian embassy"

 

Edited 2 March, 2022 by badgerx16

[badgerx16]

5 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

 

My wider point is that assuming all expected this to be over by now is rather false IMO.

I think that was Putin's plan.

[buctootim]

16 minutes ago, AlexLaw76 said:

Haha, all fair points.

My wider point is that assuming all expected this to be over by now is rather false IMO.

It took the "coalition of the willing" nearly 3 weeks to assume 'control' of Baghdad in 2003, that was with one of the biggest bombardments at the time (shock and awe). Let alone Ukraine, a more advanced country, with a battle-hardened army armed with the best weapons supplied by the US/UK for years. 

 

Bit of a tangent but the delay has compounded the supply problems for food and fuel. A vehicle running it engine for 24 hours a day because the crew want to keep warm will burn more fuel than advancing for three hours and then taking over a building. 

[badgerx16]

[buctootim]

 

New road sign in Ukraine. All roads lead to the Hague. 

[Jonnyboy]

7 hours ago, buctootim said:

I don't think so. Putin will go and Russia will pivot back to the West. Most Russians feel European, even those living in the far East. They are really afraid of China and feel very much the junior partner. Within the European orbit they would be a leading somebody.    

When you say Putin will "go," do you mean arrested in a coup? 

At the moment it looks like the Ukrainian president will be "go," as in *killed*. Although I wouldn't be surprised if he has an escape route planned. 

[Warriorsaint]

8 hours ago, rallyboy said:

Why have we still not seized or frozen the London assets of the vast majority of those UK-passported Russians linked to Putin?

I fully understand why we don't want to shoot down planes, but there is so much more that can be done in our own backyard that will both damage Putin and help us to clean up our economy.

You know why. Why is it even a question?

[buctootim]

12 minutes ago, Jonnyboy said:

When you say Putin will "go," do you mean arrested in a coup? 

At the moment it looks like the Ukrainian president will be "go," as in *killed*. Although I wouldn't be surprised if he has an escape route planned. 

Go as in not be President anymore. I can't see any country offering him asylum so his choices are probably death or war crime charges in the Hague. 

[badgerx16]

15 minutes ago, Jonnyboy said:

When you say Putin will "go," do you mean arrested in a coup? 

At the moment it looks like the Ukrainian president will be "go," as in *killed*. Although I wouldn't be surprised if he has an escape route planned. 

Sergei Lavrov, Russian Foreign Minister, has said that ".....Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president.

[aintforever]

8 hours ago, kyle04 said:

It's true the regular Russian army is estimated to be around 900,000, whilst Ukraine, with reservists estimated at 500,000. However if you count non military personel now taking up arms the numbers stack up heavily in favour of Ukraine, since Russia so far has deployed around 150,000 in the assault. They're heavily out-gunned in terms of weaponry, but the stingers and Turkish drones have proved very effective and more weapons are being sent daily. The whole world (nearly) is backing Ukraine, sanctions, weapons, medical supplies, hackers disrupting Russian systems, an Oligarch offering $1M for the head of Putin, Anonymous offering cash for every Russian tank crew that surrenders, ths list goes on. The game changer will be air power, something Russia has used very sparingly thus far. What can't be quantified is the human spirit, Ukrainians will fight to the last for their homeland, Russian soldiers are losing morale and many don't even know what they're doing there.

In 1996 Ukraine handed over its nuclear arsenal to Russia, in exchange for a guarantee of never being threatened or invaded.

Also, conquering the country is one thing but holding it is a completely different matter. We all saw the problems the US had in Iraq and Afghanistan, the issues they faced will be minuscule compared to trying to hold a hostile Ukraine supported by the whole of Europe and NATO. I’m struggling to see what sort of ‘victory’ is even achievable for Russia.

[buctootim]

This is extraordinarily grim. Russia is claiming they have lost 493 men.  There are more than that on this Ukrainian mugshot site of captured or killed Russian soldiers. You need Telegram to access it

https://t.me/rf200_now

 

 

[Lighthouse]

Unconfirmed reports going around of a Romanian Mig and helicopter missing, inside Romanian territory. Really hoping that’s an accident/inaccurate, it would be a big escalation if not.

[badgerx16]

11 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Unconfirmed reports going around of a Romanian Mig and helicopter missing, inside Romanian territory. Really hoping that’s an accident/inaccurate, it would be a big escalation if not.

The helicopter is reported to be a S&R chopper looking for the MiG.

Edited 2 March, 2022 by badgerx16

[Jimmy_D]

19 minutes ago, Lighthouse said:

Unconfirmed reports going around of a Romanian Mig and helicopter missing, inside Romanian territory. Really hoping that’s an accident/inaccurate, it would be a big escalation if not.

Initial reports indicating it’s probably due to weather.

Sounds like Romanian Migs haven’t had the best reliability record, but hard to imagine the timing could be worse.

[Lighthouse]

10 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

Initial reports indicating it’s probably due to weather.

Sounds like Romanian Migs haven’t had the best reliability record, but hard to imagine the timing could be worse.

Nothing screams reliability like the phrase, ‘Romanian Mig’ and thankfully it looks like this isn’t a malicious act, just a very unfortunate coincidence.

[badgerx16]

F1 has now terminated it's ongoing contract for the Russian GP.

[rallyboy]

A corrupt regime driven by greed falls out with another.

[moonraker]

On 02/03/2022 at 14:57, AlexLaw76 said:

Haha, all fair points.

My wider point is that assuming all expected this to be over by now is rather false IMO.

It took the "coalition of the willing" nearly 3 weeks to assume 'control' of Baghdad in 2003, that was with one of the biggest bombardments at the time (shock and awe). Let alone Ukraine, a more advanced country, with a battle-hardened army armed with the best weapons supplied by the US/UK for years. 

 

 

NATO or possibly better to say western military doctrine differs markedly from Russia's.  This has been the case since WW II, western armed forces doctrine is based on minimising casualties, firstly their own and secondly their opponents especially civilian.  This is achieved by a greater reliance on technical and equipment capability factors and accepting that the outcome, minimal casualties whilst neutralising the opponents capability and taking ground, is more important than the time frame.  Conversely Russian doctrine does not place minimising casualties very high and relies on overwhelming numbers to achieve objectives quickly.  I would therefore conclude that Putin's original plan has failed.  That being said Putin will continue to overwhelm with numbers and this may eventually  deliver his original goal , or it may not.  Either way there will be a significant human cost for Russia.

 

Edited 3 March, 2022 by moonraker

[Jimmy_D]

Speculation increasing that Russia are preparing to impose martial law and close the borders imminently.

Sounds like the protests there are starting to grow too big to ignore maybe?

[Lighthouse]

19 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

Speculation increasing that Russia are preparing to impose martial law and close the borders imminently.

Sounds like the protests there are starting to grow too big to ignore maybe?

Videos have been circulating of an elderly woman, barely able to walk and hold up a sign, being arrested at a protest in St Petersburg. Unfortunately for Russian propaganda, she is a famous and well respected war hero. One of, if not the, last remaining survivors of the siege of Leningrad and an icon of the glorious history Putin wants to preserve and emulate.

Kind of a tough sell, that one; arresting frail war heroes, for the glory of Russia.

[whelk]

32 minutes ago, Jimmy_D said:

Speculation increasing that Russia are preparing to impose martial law and close the borders imminently.

Sounds like the protests there are starting to grow too big to ignore maybe?

No IKEA or Apple products. Could life become any less bearable?

Edited 3 March, 2022 by whelk