Leicester vs Ipswich

[AlexLaw76]

1 minute ago, Tamesaint said:

You are echoing the manager??  When did Martin say that we have had easy opponents? I must have missed that one. 

You are being too pessimistic. Martin is keeping the pressure on his players. That is his job. Managers do that sort of thing. Similarly if things are going badly they come up with bullish comments. Did you echo Selles last season in the same way as you are echoing Martin when Selles said that we would not be relegated? 

He said in the pre Swansea presser that we have dropped too many points away from home recently. 

[Lymington Saint]

Ipswich have one win in the last seven games. Hardly auto promotion form. Really cant see them picking up points at the same rate as in the first half of the season. Keep up our current form - we will lose some games - and think we will finish second. And at the start of the season we would all have been happy with that

[sfc4prem]

Ipswich have hit the rocks. Can they get out and get back to above 2 pts per game? Hard to tell. They played well in the second half against Lesta.

Just checked and they are mid table of the form guide. Same amount of points as Sunderland in last 6 games, less than Swansea, though.

Edited January 23 by sfc4prem

[Nolan]

 

Some visual clarity on how points have developed for the three teams

[sfc4prem]

15 minutes ago, Nolan said:

 

Some visual clarity on how points have developed for the three teams

Really shows how much games 4 - 8 set us back, as we all know.

 

Wow, Leicester's win streak from Game 5 onwards is bafflingly good.

Edited January 23 by sfc4prem

[Tamesaint]

1 hour ago, AlexLaw76 said:

He said in the pre Swansea presser that we have dropped too many points away from home recently. 

So nothing about playing easier sides. Didn't think so. 

[AlexLaw76]

1 hour ago, Tamesaint said:

So nothing about playing easier sides. Didn't think so. 

Our fixture list tells you this. Unless you don’t believe we have the hardest bunch of games coming up before Easter!

[Cabrone]

Anyone in the top 4 is a small wobble away from either being sucked in or being thrown out of the auto race. It's a highwire act. We had our meltdown 4 months ago and we've only just managed to get back into it. It's all about handling the pressure now.

If I was a Leicester fan despite the healthy lead I'd be looking slightly nervously over my shoulder at our 21 game run. They have been on cruise control all season but now the gap is not overwhelming and the chasing pack is gaining.

Obviously I'd rather be in their position, all we can do is keep on applying pressure and see if it gets to them. It's not impossible.

I'm really enjoying this season, top of the champ is a knife fight to the death. We love a bit of jepardy.

[SNSUN]

2 hours ago, sfc4prem said:

Really shows how much games 4 - 8 set us back, as we all know.

 

Wow, Leicester's win streak from Game 5 onwards is bafflingly good.

If you think about it, we're averaging a 2 points per game ratio this season (slightly better actually). We got 0 points from 12 in those 4 games - hypothetically a one point per game ratio (or relegation form) would have given us 4 more points and a 2 points per game ratio (which we've hit for the rest of the season) would have given us 8 more points. Even those 4 extra points right now would see us above Ipswich, more clear of Leeds and only 4 points behind Leicester. 8 points more now and we'd be sharing the top spot. 

Now 4 losses over the course of a 28 game season spread out doesn't seem too bad, Leicester have 4 and Ipswich (surprisingly) only 3 but it does show that we have drawn too many games when we haven't killed teams off. Thankfully, for now at least, it seems like we have more of a killer instinct and are tighter at the back (for the most part) so hopefully going forwards we can keep winning instead of drawing.

My last point is that, thinking about it and reading some of the comments, the draw last night probably was the best outcome for us. Can Ipswich keep it up as the season goes on or will their squad struggle as legs tire? All it takes is for an injury/knock to a key player or two (they've already lost Hirst for a month or two). Our depth along with Leicester's and Leeds's is still the reason I think it's 2 from 3 not 2 from 4 but maybe that's just wishful thinking.

[Dark Munster]

7 hours ago, Sheaf Saint said:

Make no mistake, given how much we have closed the gap since mid December, Ipswich are the ones feeling the pressure now, not us. 

It’s us that has all the pressure. If we don’t go up we lose our best players and the descent into a Swansea begins. On the other hand if Ipswich, with a wage bill tiny compared to ours, fail to go up they can dust themselves off and give it another crack next season. Their only concern is maybe losing their excellent manager. 

[gio1saints]

I think Sheaf Saint was referring to Ipswich recent form versus ours. We seemed to have caught up a lot of points on them lately. Which would put pressure on them. 

It’s stating the obvious that any relegated team does not go straight up it’s a problem. I dont think RM is going to use that in one of his pre match pep talks put it that way. Repeating it on here is like something out of Dads Army -“if we don’t go up first time of asking  we’re all doomed I tell ye, doomed!” 😂😂😂😂

[SNSUN]

8 minutes ago, gio1saints said:

I think Sheaf Saint was referring to Ipswich recent form versus ours. We seemed to have caught up a lot of points on them lately. Which would put pressure on them. 

It’s stating the obvious that any relegated team does not go straight up it’s a problem. I dont think RM is going to use that in one of his pre match pep talks put it that way. Repeating it on here is like something out of Dads Army -“if we don’t go up first time of asking  we’re all doomed I tell ye, doomed!” 😂😂😂😂

I don't think we'd be doomed, we'd still have a now-fit (you'd hope) Stewart leading the line, I'm not totally sure I could see AA or Smallbone going anywhere, and you also have promising youngsters like Meghoma, Dibling and SAA still to come through but we would have to trim the wage bill a lot more and KWP would go, THB and Downes would probably go back to their clubs, Fraser might stay (based on what's he's said recently) but other players like Charly, Sulemana and possibly Bazunu and Bednarek would most likely be sold to raise funds. It would be an interesting rebuild project, only it would be one with talented youngsters and a core of decent senior players. We'd also still be an attractive proposition at this level, and you would hope that we'd use the loan market again with the same excellence we have done this season.

Unlike the Burley years when we hit play-offs then drifted down the league/s, I really think we will be fighting for promotion next season (if, of course, we don't go up this season) and I think a lot of that is because of the decent youth recruitment over the last few years. I don't think we'd get torn apart as much as Leicester or Leeds if they didn't go up in the summer. Still, let's hope we go up and none of this matters. 

[Dr Who?]

I have to say I am really enjoying this season. If you cannot enjoy the football now you never will. 

I think we will go up, but in a weird way I would love it to stay as it is, but of course it cannot and the club and fans want to compete at the top level. Also if we do not go up, it will not always be like this, as players leave and the money runs out, we will turn into the other clubs fighting it out just below us in the championship. 

but I have to say I am loving watching Saints, the way we play, the points we are picking up, and walking around knowing we are currently the best team in this league by far. Enjoy it where it lasts. 

[HarvSFC]

1	West Ham United	28	16	5	7	44	29	15	53
2	Southampton	28	15	6	7	51	31	20	51
3	Cardiff City	28	13	11	4	45	30	15	50
4	Birmingham City	27	13	7	7	46	27	19	46
5	Hull City	28	14	4	10	28	25	3	46
6	Blackpool	28	12	9	7	45	35	10	45
7	Reading	28	13	6	9	35	27	8	45

 

Points totals on the right hand side after 28 games in 2011-12. This race is still far from over and why a draw was the best result last night as keeps both within our sights. Ipswich have won one of their last seven, Leicester have won two of their last five. We've won six of our last seven. They're slowing down, we aren't.

[S-Clarke]

9 minutes ago, HarvSFC said:

1	West Ham United	28	16	5	7	44	29	15	53
2	Southampton	28	15	6	7	51	31	20	51
3	Cardiff City	28	13	11	4	45	30	15	50
4	Birmingham City	27	13	7	7	46	27	19	46
5	Hull City	28	14	4	10	28	25	3	46
6	Blackpool	28	12	9	7	45	35	10	45
7	Reading	28	13	6	9	35	27	8	45

 

Points totals on the right hand side after 28 games in 2011-12. This race is still far from over and why a draw was the best result last night as keeps both within our sights. Ipswich have won one of their last seven, Leicester have won two of their last five. We've won six of our last seven. They're slowing down, we aren't.

Reading came from nowhere really, they got 44 points out of 54 from their last 18 games, that is incredible. Their GD went from +8 to +28 in that time as well.

That shows how anything is possible, but you just feel Leicester have set too high a bar this year.

[Saint_clark]

46 minutes ago, S-Clarke said:

Reading came from nowhere really, they got 44 points out of 54 from their last 18 games, that is incredible. Their GD went from +8 to +28 in that time as well.

That shows how anything is possible, but you just feel Leicester have set too high a bar this year.

Indeed. A mirrored swing this season would see Leicester end up on 99 points, with us on 102. This season will either see Leicester easily win the league or collapse at monumental levels. 

[SaintBobby]

16 hours ago, Nordic Saint said:

i.e. We are 2nd favourites behind Leicester. 

Championship Promotion Betting Odds | Football | Oddschecker

Yep. The issue is....not something we can affect, merely something we can hope or pray for....would you'd like our chance of 2nd place and promotion to increase OR would you like our chance of 1st place to increase while our chance of promotion actually decreases? 

I guess, if you had to pick one of the following two what would you pick:

1. Chance of being champions 15% and chance of being promoted 50%

2. Chance of being champions 5% and chance of being promoted 60%

I'd pick 1. 

If you're in camp 1, you want Leicester to lose points to Leeds and Ipswich. If in camp 2, you want Leicester to beat Leeds and Ipswich.

Edited January 24 by SaintBobby

[CB Fry]

...

Edited January 24 by CB Fry
Wrong quote

[CB Fry]

 

23 hours ago, Saint_clark said:

Indeed. A mirrored swing this season would see Leicester end up on 99 points, with us on 102. This season will either see Leicester easily win the league or collapse at monumental levels. 

What swing are you mirroring?

The team right now, this season, where Reading were, then (same number of points) are West Brom.

If we are going to take that season as a touchstone then surely we are Cardiff or Birmingham in that scenario? Neither went up.

The whole point of Reading is they had a brilliant run in the second half of the season. We've already gone 20 unbeaten so that is nothing like us at all.

Edited January 24 by CB Fry

[Dark Munster]

17 hours ago, SaintBobby said:

Yep. The issue is....not something we can affect, merely something we can hope or pray for....would you'd like our chance of 2nd place and promotion to increase OR would you like our chance of 1st place to increase while our chance of promotion actually decreases? 

I guess, if you had to pick one of the following two what would you pick:

1. Chance of being champions 15% and chance of being promoted 50%

2. Chance of being champions 5% and chance of being promoted 60%

I'd pick 1. 

If you're in camp 1, you want Leicester to lose points to Leeds and Ipswich. If in camp 2, you want Leicester to beat Leeds and Ipswich.

That's a good summary of the two options. I'd take 2. any day of the week.

[kitch]

On 23/01/2024 at 20:52, Dr Who? said:

I have to say I am really enjoying this season. If you cannot enjoy the football now you never will. 

I think we will go up, but in a weird way I would love it to stay as it is, but of course it cannot and the club and fans want to compete at the top level. Also if we do not go up, it will not always be like this, as players leave and the money runs out, we will turn into the other clubs fighting it out just below us in the championship. 

but I have to say I am loving watching Saints, the way we play, the points we are picking up, and walking around knowing we are currently the best team in this league by far. Enjoy it where it lasts. 

One of the most enjoyable seasons since the Koeman days IMO.

[gio1saints]

On 24/01/2024 at 20:06, Dark Munster said:

That's a good summary of the two options. I'd take 2. any day of the week.

I do not think Saints will change or adapt their approach at any stage of the season including Leeds away or a Play -off Final if it comes to it.

For the very simple reason that, in RM words, if you do not commit 100% in our way of playing there is no plan B.

The team will carry on playing this style and if it’s good enough we will get enough points to go up 

The minute they start trying to “ protect” a lead or a draw we just fuck up.
 

So, inherent in that “ absolutist”philosophy if you like is that Saints are focused 100% on going for the title, nothing less. 

[Dark Munster]

6 hours ago, gio1saints said:

I do not think Saints will change or adapt their approach at any stage of the season including Leeds away or a Play -off Final if it comes to it.

For the very simple reason that, in RM words, if you do not commit 100% in our way of playing there is no plan B.

The team will carry on playing this style and if it’s good enough we will get enough points to go up 

The minute they start trying to “ protect” a lead or a draw we just fuck up.
 

So, inherent in that “ absolutist”philosophy if you like is that Saints are focused 100% on going for the title, nothing less. 

Yes but the question is what did we prefer, Ipswich or Leicester losing? Obviously it’s irrelevant how we play (except when we play them). I’d be happy with Ipswich and Leeds dropping points, and Leicester winning, each week as it improves our chances of going up. 

[Dusic]

2 hours ago, Dark Munster said:

Yes but the question is what did we prefer, Ipswich or Leicester losing? Obviously it’s irrelevant how we play (except when we play them). I’d be happy with Ipswich and Leeds dropping points, and Leicester winning, each week as it improves our chances of going up. 

This is the sensible view that is more likely to result in promotion.

Even read further up someone suggesting it would be great if Leicester feel the pressure of Leeds too...personally would rather Leicester feel absolutely zero pressure from Leeds as that means we are more likely to be well clear of them too.