January Transfer Window

[coalman]

4 hours ago, Chez said:

Ultimately, if good players are being identified like Fernandes, then it's hard to argue against a process, but if you are bringing players like Gronbaek into the club that then can't get a game in a poor side, then that raises questions.

And, therein lies the problem. If you buy enough players then sometimes you're going to find a good one. Is that because of your process or in spite of it? In the same way that recruiting a Sulemana or a BBD doesn't mean your process is bad.

Attempting to rank all teams in Europe into a single league to identify the teams doing well is a novel approach but you're comparing vastly differing sample sizes of teams playing between leagues and basing your inference model on performance that changes from week to week and season to season. Are a player's stats good because they are good or is it because of the players around them or the tactics they are employing? Does a recruitment approach that worked for a Danish top tier side work for a Premier League team? This is just scratching the surface on why this approach is sketchy. Fundamentally, is a team outperforming its league down to its players, training or something else? Unless you've demonstrated a causal link you're just making decision based on coincidence (or statistically, correlation).

At best, you might use a statistics based approach to identify players that might be worth looking at further. But then you have to watch them (whether on video or in person) to understand why the stats are saying that. You also want to watch them when the camera is not on them (for example - anyone watching Manning play with the ball might think he's a great ball playing full back - anyone watching him amble around the middle of the park without the ball would immediately spot that he's left a gaping hole for the other team to exploit at left back).

To give some examples. It's arguable that Pochettino was among our best managers ever. Adkins got us promoted twice and Saints were competing in the Premier League but changing from Adkins to Pochettino led to a marked improvement in both performance and results with the same players. Almost overnight. Hughes managed to keep us up and yet changing to Hassenhutl again led to a massive improvement with the same players. Did the players become that much better or were they in an environment where they were able to perform better? Towards the end of his reign the game had moved on and Hassenhutl's tactics were found out. Does this mean the players had gotten worse?

Ankersen's approach has no way to normalise for this. If he'd analysed Saints under Adkins he'd have been far less likely to see Saints players as worthy of recruitment yet under Pochettino the exact same players would have been a far more attractive proposition. One might reasonably argue that getting the manager right is critical to getting the environment right and the best out of players. Under Ankersen's approach the manager is there to implement policy with the players he is given not develop an environment in which they can excel.

Edited 4 hours ago by coalman

[lambtiss]

1 hour ago, Chez said:

Ultimately, if good players are being identified like Fernandes, then it's hard to argue against a process, but if you are bringing players like Gronbaek into the club that then can't get a game in a poor side, then that raises questions.

 

 

My biggest gripe is that the scouting has not addressed the most important failings in the team.i.e. A centre forward, a strong defence minded midfielder and a centre back with good defensive aerial ability. You could also add Goalkeeper to this list, although Ramsdale was good and hopefully Peretz will prove to be good. 

Too often, the new recruits either don't address the key areas, are too young (Quarshie, Downes) or just not good enough (Downes, Onuachu).

Edited 8 hours ago by lambtiss

[disconnect]

20 minutes ago, lambtiss said:

My biggest gripe is that the scouting has not addressed the most important failings in the team.i.e. A centre forward, a strong defence minded midfielder and a centre back with good defensive aerial ability. You could also add Goalkeeper to this list, although Ramsdale was good and hopefully Peretz will prove to be good. 

Too often, the new recruits either don't address the key areas, are too young (Quarshie, Downes) or just not good enough (Downes, Onuachu).

Which player are you referring to? Flynn Downes isn't too young, and arguably on form is good enough for a top end Championship team (although that's quite rare these days), but Damion Downs was a young and fairly untested player who proved not to be good enough (currently). 

Agreed that we're missing that powerful core spine of the team though - strong centre forward and defensive midfielder (see Wanyama!). 

[Chez]

28 minutes ago, lambtiss said:

My biggest gripe is that the scouting has not addressed the most important failings in the team.i.e. A centre forward, a strong defence minded midfielder and a centre back with good defensive aerial ability. 

They have attempted to address two of those three areas when buying Downs and and Quarshie. So they have identified the same issues as yourself. Obviously Downs has not worked out and Quarshie hasn't been an instant fix.

Not sure they saw defensive CM as a requirement. Jander was bought and he isn't a 'destroyer' type. Maybe they thought Downes, Charles and Sesay had the position covered. Bringing in Romeu suggests they changed their mind, but again, the club agreed with you in terms of needs.

[Chez]

58 minutes ago, coalman said:

And, therein lies the problem. If you buy enough players then sometimes you're going to find a good one. Is that because of your process or in spite of it? In the same way that recruiting a Sulemana or a BBD doesn't mean your process is bad.

Attempting to rank all teams in Europe into a single league to identify the teams doing well is a novel approach but you're comparing vastly differing sample sizes of teams playing between leagues and basing your inference model on performance that changes from week to week and season to season. Are a player's stats good because they are good or is it because of the players around them or the tactics they are employing? Does a recruitment approach that worked for a Danish top tier side work for a Premier League team? This is just scratching the surface on why this approach is sketchy. Fundamentally, is a team outperforming its league down to its players, training or something else? Unless you've demonstrated a causal link you're just making decision based on coincidence (or statistically, correlation).

At best, you might use a statistics based approach to identify players that might be worth looking at further. But then you have to watch them (whether on video or in person) to understand why the stats are saying that. You also want to watch them when the camera is not on them (for example - anyone watching Manning play with the ball might think he's a great ball playing full back - anyone watching him amble around the middle of the park would immediately spot that he's left a gaping hole for the other team to exploit at left back).

To give some examples. It's arguable that Pochettino was among our best managers ever. Adkins got us promoted twice and Saints were competing in the Premier League but changing from Adkins to Pochettino led to a marked improvement in both performance and results with the same players. Almost overnight. Hughes managed to keep us up and yet changing to Hassenhutl again led to a massive improvement with the same players. Did the players become that much better or were they in an environment where they were able to perform better? Towards the end of his reign the game had moved on and Hassenhutl's tactics were found out. Does this mean the players had gotten worse?

Ankersen's approach has no way to normalise for this. If he'd analysed Saints under Adkins he'd have been far less likely to see Saints players as worthy of recruitment yet under Pochettino the exact same players would have been a far more attractive proposition. One might reasonably argue that getting the manager right is critical to getting the environment right and the best out of players. Under Ankersen's approach the manager is there to implement policy with the players he is given not develop an environment in which they can excel.

Very well put. I don't think there is any harm in ranking teams, but as you say, what is the value of associating the collective team ranking with the ability of an individual? 

 

[Willo of Whiteley]

Dan Neil (CM) signing on loan for Ipswich, contract up in the summer. Good signing for them. Not a position we need but a good signing nonetheless.

I don’t see us bringing more players in.

I imagine we’ll still be trying to shift on the deadwood in Aribo and Edozie before anything happens.

This season is done, as much as yes it is mathematically possible, but sometimes you have to be realistic and just say we aren’t good enough.

Sport Republic spending money now would be stupid, and I wouldn’t trust them to spend it wisely.

[Willo of Whiteley]

For those interested, Sport Republic effectively “revamped” the scouting network when they took over.

Scouts that had been at the club for years, some for over a decade were effectively told “get on board, or leave”, so a lot left.

They then compartmentalised the SR network, so if you are a Southampton scout, you are a Goztepe scout or a Valenciennes scout. 
You work for the group, not the club.

This alongside now being “data driven” and following an algorithm rather than physical spectating players then produced wrong signings, mad fees and wasted time and money - and subsequently for us two relegations in four years under them.

Yes, they found a couple of gems in Romeo Lavia and Mateus Fernandes, but they were already being tracked by a host of other teams; and it doesn’t mitigate the dross that has been signed in that time.

Think of players that have signed on long contracts and then been let go or loaned out since they signed: Orsic, Sugawara, Onuachu, Sulemana, Bree (although he’s back for now), Lavia, Fernandes, Downes, Juan, Fraser, Larios, Bella-Kotchap, Taylor, Bazunu, Brereton-Diaz, Edwards, Caleta-Car…. Unbelievably, I could go on.

Thought the above might be of some interest.

[DT]

I suspect there is a slim possibility of us still getting Piroe on loan if Leeds get Jorgen Strand Larsen (and maybe we shift out our captain, who doesn't want to be here but can run around a lot so is great, or something)

[Farmer Saint]

20 minutes ago, DT said:

I suspect there is a slim possibility of us still getting Piroe on loan if Leeds get Jorgen Strand Larsen (and maybe we shift out our captain, who doesn't want to be here but can run around a lot so is great, or something)

Why would we want Piroe? He'd be 3rd choice at best I'd have thought (behind Stewart and Armstrong). He's really not very good as a CF and mostly scored coming off the left.

Edited 6 hours ago by Farmer Saint

[Wade Garrett]

I’ve stopped caring about the nerds doing the scouting on their laptops.  Dragan is writing the cheques and is an idiot of the highest order to keep trusting a complete load of fucking idiots who have never played the game.

He continues to trust Rasmus.  He continues to trust Spors who has lumbered us with 2 shit managers, the second of which is his pal.

I honestly hope he goes skint through all this.  What a fucking onion.

[Fabrice29]

2 hours ago, Willo of Whiteley said:

For those interested, Sport Republic effectively “revamped” the scouting network when they took over.

Scouts that had been at the club for years, some for over a decade were effectively told “get on board, or leave”, so a lot left.

They then compartmentalised the SR network, so if you are a Southampton scout, you are a Goztepe scout or a Valenciennes scout. 
You work for the group, not the club.

This alongside now being “data driven” and following an algorithm rather than physical spectating players then produced wrong signings, mad fees and wasted time and money - and subsequently for us two relegations in four years under them.

Yes, they found a couple of gems in Romeo Lavia and Mateus Fernandes, but they were already being tracked by a host of other teams; and it doesn’t mitigate the dross that has been signed in that time.

Think of players that have signed on long contracts and then been let go or loaned out since they signed: Orsic, Sugawara, Onuachu, Sulemana, Bree (although he’s back for now), Lavia, Fernandes, Downes, Juan, Fraser, Larios, Bella-Kotchap, Taylor, Bazunu, Brereton-Diaz, Edwards, Caleta-Car…. Unbelievably, I could go on.

Thought the above might be of some interest.

This suggests that spectating players has been replaced fully which isn't true.

[bugenhagen]

5 hours ago, coalman said:

https://thecorrespondent.com/2607/how-data-not-people-call-the-shots-in-denmark/230219386155-d2948861

Where he says:

• ‘People see huge difference between the Premier League and the lower divisions in England,’ Ankersen explains. ‘We think this is not true. There is a big gap between the Premier League’s number 7 and number 10. But the gap between the Premier League’s number 10 and the Championship, or even League One, is far smaller.’

So that's whats he is trying to prove!

[Willo of Whiteley]

53 minutes ago, Fabrice29 said:

This suggests that spectating players has been replaced fully which isn't true.

I didn’t say it doesn’t happen. But I have said how it’s more spreadsheet analysis based than scouting in person compared to previously.

Players are being scouted for the group, not the club and their respected league.

Also my news comes from someone close to the club. The same one that made me aware of several transfers previously. I’m not trying to point score but I’d rather take their word over anyone else’s. 🤷🏻‍♂️

[Appy]

2 hours ago, DT said:

I suspect there is a slim possibility of us still getting Piroe on loan if Leeds get Jorgen Strand Larsen (and maybe we shift out our captain, who doesn't want to be here but can run around a lot so is great, or something)

By captain you mean?

[OneMrsWallace]

7 minutes ago, Willo of Whiteley said:

I didn’t say it doesn’t happen. But I have said how it’s more spreadsheet analysis based than scouting in person compared to previously.

Players are being scouted for the group, not the club and their respected league.

Also my news comes from someone close to the club. The same one that made me aware of several transfers previously. I’m not trying to point score but I’d rather take their word over anyone else’s. 🤷🏻‍♂️

I reckon the vast majority of us understood exactly what you meant @Willo of Whiteley It's a really useful observation. Also, managers/coaches selecting players seems to be disappearing. I'm guessing they identify positions that need improving and leave it to the 'experts.' Not sure that's an ideal system. 

[Gloucester Saint]

6 minutes ago, OneMrsWallace said:

I reckon the vast majority of us understood exactly what you meant @Willo of Whiteley It's a really useful observation. Also, managers/coaches selecting players seems to be disappearing. I'm guessing they identify positions that need improving and leave it to the 'experts.' Not sure that's an ideal system. 

Although Jones (Bree) and Martin (Downes, Manning, Fraser and Wood) must have had a say in those signings.

[Midfield_General]

1 hour ago, Fabrice29 said:

This suggests that spectating players has been replaced fully which isn't true.

Care to explain the detail of exactly how we do scout players then, and how you know? 

[Fabrice29]

45 minutes ago, Willo of Whiteley said:

I didn’t say it doesn’t happen. But I have said how it’s more spreadsheet analysis based than scouting in person compared to previously.

Players are being scouted for the group, not the club and their respected league.

Also my news comes from someone close to the club. The same one that made me aware of several transfers previously. I’m not trying to point score but I’d rather take their word over anyone else’s. 🤷🏻‍♂️

I don’t doubt any of what you’re saying I was just making sure nobody misunderstood that players are absolutely watched by the club. 

8 minutes ago, Midfield_General said:

Care to explain the detail of exactly how we do scout players then, and how you know? 

I don’t know ‘the detail of exactly we scout players’, so no. I do know people who have worked for the club doing scout reports by watching the players though so I know that it happens. I’m pretty sure there are online content creators who not only work for the club doing exactly that but will happily answer certain questions about it for you though if you find and ask them nicely. 

[SaintlyAnd]

4 hours ago, Willo of Whiteley said:

For those interested, Sport Republic effectively “revamped” the scouting network when they took over.

Scouts that had been at the club for years, some for over a decade were effectively told “get on board, or leave”, so a lot left.

They then compartmentalised the SR network, so if you are a Southampton scout, you are a Goztepe scout or a Valenciennes scout. 
You work for the group, not the club.

This alongside now being “data driven” and following an algorithm rather than physical spectating players then produced wrong signings, mad fees and wasted time and money - and subsequently for us two relegations in four years under them.

Yes, they found a couple of gems in Romeo Lavia and Mateus Fernandes, but they were already being tracked by a host of other teams; and it doesn’t mitigate the dross that has been signed in that time.

Think of players that have signed on long contracts and then been let go or loaned out since they signed: Orsic, Sugawara, Onuachu, Sulemana, Bree (although he’s back for now), Lavia, Fernandes, Downes, Juan, Fraser, Larios, Bella-Kotchap, Taylor, Bazunu, Brereton-Diaz, Edwards, Caleta-Car…. Unbelievably, I could go on.

Thought the above might be of some interest.

I got told very similar a year ago ( by a friend who used to work in analysis at the club about 7 years ago and still knows people there). He said SRs move to scouting for the whole group led to so much confusion, plus undermined and frustrated a lot of people and it took years to get them functioning. In the meantime Ankersson went off by himself bringing in Onuachu, Sulemana (plus someone else I don’t remember) based on him knowing them from Denmark while criticising the recruitment team for poor recruitment!

I also had one interaction through work with our analysis team during the season we were relegated under Selles. I used to meet with analysts from lots of clubs and the most laughable experience was with Saints. And I was really impressed with Bournemouth and the work they do. 

 

[Golac's Cunning Stunts]

1 hour ago, OneMrsWallace said:

I reckon the vast majority of us understood exactly what you meant @Willo of Whiteley It's a really useful observation. Also, managers/coaches selecting players seems to be disappearing. I'm guessing they identify positions that need improving and leave it to the 'experts.' Not sure that's an ideal system. 

Pretty sure managers of, for example, Brighton, Bournemouth, Brentford, Palace don't have any say whatsoever as to what players are purchased. Working really well for those clubs, which leads one to think they have better systems in place than sports direct / republic

[Turkish]

13 minutes ago, SaintlyAnd said:

I got told very similar a year ago ( by a friend who used to work in analysis at the club about 7 years ago and still knows people there). He said SRs move to scouting for the whole group led to so much confusion, plus undermined and frustrated a lot of people and it took years to get them functioning. In the meantime Ankersson went off by himself bringing in Onuachu, Sulemana (plus someone else I don’t remember) based on him knowing them from Denmark while criticising the recruitment team for poor recruitment!

I also had one interaction through work with our analysis team during the season we were relegated under Selles. I used to meet with analysts from lots of clubs and the most laughable experience was with Saints. And I was really impressed with Bournemouth and the work they do. 

 

Who could forget when he boasted about he was personally taking charge of recruitment in that January window and we ended up with Orsic, Sulemana, Onochu for a cool £45m

[Toussaint]

7 minutes ago, Turkish said:

Who could forget when he boasted about he was personally taking charge of recruitment in that January window and we ended up with Orsic, Sulemana, Onochu for a cool £45m

 How could we ever forget, it’s why we are where we are now. A critically injured club.

[AlexLaw76]

23 minutes ago, SaintlyAnd said:

I got told very similar a year ago ( by a friend who used to work in analysis at the club about 7 years ago and still knows people there). He said SRs move to scouting for the whole group led to so much confusion, plus undermined and frustrated a lot of people and it took years to get them functioning. In the meantime Ankersson went off by himself bringing in Onuachu, Sulemana (plus someone else I don’t remember) based on him knowing them from Denmark while criticising the recruitment team for poor recruitment!

I also had one interaction through work with our analysis team during the season we were relegated under Selles. I used to meet with analysts from lots of clubs and the most laughable experience was with Saints. And I was really impressed with Bournemouth and the work they do. 

 

We are down here forever, if not relegated again.

Solak, Anderson and co are fucking poison for this club.

[Willo of Whiteley]

Appreciate you guys listening, thank you.

Someone above mentioned the Jones signing of Bree and the Martin signing of Downes, Fraser etc.
They’re 100% manager picked signings, but that’s the difference. Russell Martin was the manager, and he had a working relationship with Jason Wilcox.

Managers we’ve had in the last year have become interim or “head coach”.
I doubt there is much of a dynamic there.

Put it this way, if you’ve got a manager picking certain players to buy and then it doesn’t work then the next manager wants to have their own ideas, identity and change the squad.
A head coach is effectively told “if you’re in this position this is what you work with”.

This is what mismanagement of the highest level does. Costs have to be cut. What better way than to just hiring a new head coach on the cheap that has little responsibility other than picking a team on a matchday.