Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 50 of 75

Thread: Only two more wins needed to stay up?

  1. Default Only two more wins needed to stay up?

    The bottom end of the league is so dire this season, that you may only need scraps to stay up.

    For everyone other than ourselves and West Ham, the season is halfway through.

    If the three bottom teams replicate their performances in the second half of the season over the next 19 matches, they will end up as follows:

    18th Burnley 24 pts, GD -48
    19th Fulham 22 pts GD -52
    20th Huddersfield 20 pts GD -44

    If that were to happen, Saints would stay up if our next twenty games result in 2 wins, 3 draws and 15 defeats...as long as we don't worsen our goal difference by more than 34.

    Ok, these are extreme numbers. And no one would want to cut it as close as this (or assume that it will be this close), but the hurdle to stay up could be pathetically low. And that's the limit of my ambitions just for now!

  2. #2

    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    San Francisco, CA
    Posts
    327

    Default

    Correct me me if I'm wrong, but I've got the impression that the struggling teams tend to pick up their form in the second half of the season.

  3. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by USA SaintsFan View Post
    Correct me me if I'm wrong, but I've got the impression that the struggling teams tend to pick up their form in the second half of the season.
    Haven't run the numbers on that tbh, but I'm still willing to say you're wrong - even though I'm guessing a bit.

    There was the old "bottom at Xmas = relegation" rule (broken by WBA when we went down in 2005, I think)

    Obviously, if you have zero points after 19 games, things can't get worse, getting one draw and 18 defeats is an improvement! But I'd never heard the idea that the weaker teams get better in the second half of the season.

    If that's true, it implies that the top teams get worse. Possible, I guess. But have never seen any actual evidence for it.

  4. #4

    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Location
    San Francisco, CA
    Posts
    327

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SaintBobby View Post
    Haven't run the numbers on that tbh, but I'm still willing to say you're wrong - even though I'm guessing a bit.

    There was the old "bottom at Xmas = relegation" rule (broken by WBA when we went down in 2005, I think)

    Obviously, if you have zero points after 19 games, things can't get worse, getting one draw and 18 defeats is an improvement! But I'd never heard the idea that the weaker teams get better in the second half of the season.

    If that's true, it implies that the top teams get worse. Possible, I guess. But have never seen any actual evidence for it.
    I actually did have a look at the numbers, and I think I'm right. Throughout the last six seasons, the bottom three teams combined have finished with about 9.8 points more than they were projected to halfway through the season.

    I'd guess that that point increase comes at the expense of mid table teams with little to play for.

  5. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by USA SaintsFan View Post
    I actually did have a look at the numbers, and I think I'm right. Throughout the last six seasons, the bottom three teams combined have finished with about 9.8 points more than they were projected to halfway through the season.

    I'd guess that that point increase comes at the expense of mid table teams with little to play for.
    Good stat. So, that's about 3 or 4 more points each (9.8 divided by 3)....that would put the bar at c27 points.

  6. #6

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SaintBobby View Post
    Haven't run the numbers on that tbh, but I'm still willing to say you're wrong - even though I'm guessing a bit.

    There was the old "bottom at Xmas = relegation" rule (broken by WBA when we went down in 2005, I think)

    Obviously, if you have zero points after 19 games, things can't get worse, getting one draw and 18 defeats is an improvement! But I'd never heard the idea that the weaker teams get better in the second half of the season.

    If that's true, it implies that the top teams get worse. Possible, I guess. But have never seen any actual evidence for it.
    Rather than "run the numbers" did you not consider, just for a second, to look that Premier League finishing table for last season, the season before that and the season before that and maybe go back ten years?

    How many time have all four teams in the bottom four all ended up on sub-twentty five points?

    How many teams have stayed in the Premier League with around 25 points? Name them.

    It's fair to say that the bottom half is getting weaker each season but your scenario seems absurdly unlikely and maybe you should apply a tiny bit of perspective of what actually happens in a real life Premier League season here on planet Earth.

    Thankfully Ralph won't be taking your view and we will try and win slightly more than two more games.
    Last edited by CB Fry; 27-12-2018 at 06:06 AM.

  7. #7

    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Plymouth
    Posts
    5,805

    Default

    We'll need a darn sight more than that. I reckon another 4 wins, 5 draws should do it. I think the bottom half of the Premier League might well pretty much just stay as it is.

    (End up as it is now, you understand, not that NOBODY will move at all between now and May).

  8. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by CB Fry View Post
    Rather than "run the numbers" did you not consider, just for a second, to look that Premier League finishing table for last season, the season before that and the season before that and maybe go back ten years?

    How many time have all four teams in the bottom four all ended up on sub-twentty five points?

    How many teams have stayed in the Premier League with around 25 points? Name them.

    It's fair to say that the bottom half is getting weaker each season but your scenario seems absurdly unlikely and maybe you should apply a tiny bit of perspective of what actually happens in a real life Premier League season here on planet Earth.

    Thankfully Ralph won't be taking your view and we will try and win slightly more than two more games.
    You are clearly a cretin, who can barely read or process information.

    1. I didn't say our target should be to try and win only 2 games, just that it was just about possible that it would be enough to stay up - at a stretch.
    2. No team has ever stayed in the Premier League with 25 points. I think it may have happened with 30. My point was the bottom few teams are especially poor this season.
    3. This is happening on planet Earth.

    I am sorry for your educational retardation. You clearly have an IQ of about 60 or below. Bless.

  9. #9

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SaintBobby View Post
    You are clearly a cretin, who can barely read or process information.

    1. I didn't say our target should be to try and win only 2 games, just that it was just about possible that it would be enough to stay up - at a stretch.
    2. No team has ever stayed in the Premier League with 25 points. I think it may have happened with 30. My point was the bottom few teams are especially poor this season.
    3. This is happening on planet Earth.

    I am sorry for your educational retardation. You clearly have an IQ of about 60 or below. Bless.
    You have read your own title of this thread and your own opening post, yes?

    Nice that your trying to distance yourself from it now. I feel my work is done.

  10. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by CB Fry View Post
    You have read your own title of this thread and your own opening post, yes?

    Nice that your trying to distance yourself from it now. I feel my work is done.
    Not only have I read the title. I was even able to write it.

    It's a headline. A provocation. It ends in a question mark (that's the "?" sign, in case you didn't know, btw).

    If you are able to read - which is rather doubtful - you will have noticed that it contains content such as "ok, these are extreme numbers"...."no one would want to cut it this close"...."or assume it will be this close".

    You seem to have derived from this that my suggestion to the Chairman is that we should only target winning two more games this season. You are glad the Chairman won't be "taking (my) view".

    I can only conclude that you are seriously mentally retarded and have an ability to process words and information that is measurably worse than that of my 4 year old niece. Perhaps even closer to the intellectual level of my cat (he is a bright cat, to be fair)
    Last edited by SaintBobby; 27-12-2018 at 06:38 AM.

  11. #11

    Default

    Based on their last two games Man City will get no more points this season.

  12. #12

    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Gotham City
    Posts
    28,122

    Default

    2 more wins?

    Dear god

  13. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by whelk View Post
    Based on their last two games Man City will get no more points this season.
    And we will end up on 75 points.

    I'd suggest basing a projection on a team's last two games is very rash. Basing a projection on their last 19 games is somewhat sounder....(although not foolproof)

  14. #14

    Default Only two more wins needed to stay up?

    ....
    Last edited by whelk; 27-12-2018 at 07:11 AM. Reason: Wrong thread

  15. #15

    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Shilton's 6 yard box
    Posts
    733

    Default

    I had a look at this a couple of weeks back, before we started winning. I was thinking that this year is awful and would end up with much lower points than previous years at the bottom, at the end of the season.

    I was quite surprised that the current points total is similar to the past few years. So there does generally seem to be a pick up in the second half of the season for those st the bottom.

  16. #16

    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Plymouth
    Posts
    5,805

    Default

    Tbf two wins may well be enough...Provided we draw every other game.

  17. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Instant Classic View Post
    Tbf two wins may well be enough...Provided we draw every other game.
    If we somehow get 2 wins and 18 draws, that would put us on 39 points. Easily enough, surely!? (Didn't we stay up last season on 33...with a 3 point buffer in the end?)
    Last edited by SaintBobby; 27-12-2018 at 07:35 AM.

  18. #18

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SaintBobby View Post
    Not only have I read the title. I was even able to write it.

    It's a headline. A provocation. It ends in a question mark (that's the "?" sign, in case you didn't know, btw).

    If you are able to read - which is rather doubtful - you will have noticed that it contains content such as "ok, these are extreme numbers"...."no one would want to cut it this close"...."or assume it will be this close".

    You seem to have derived from this that my suggestion to the Chairman is that we should only target winning two more games this season. You are glad the Chairman won't be "taking (my) view".

    I can only conclude that you are seriously mentally retarded and have an ability to process words and information that is measurably worse than that of my 4 year old niece. Perhaps even closer to the intellectual level of my cat (he is a bright cat, to be fair)
    Yes, I've already explained I understand sweetie.

    I get it: you've written a provocative headline and scenerio with question marks at the end of sentences and everything.

    But the very second it gets the reaction a provocative headline is supposed to generate (People respond, provoked) you collapse like a deck of cards.

    So you immediately disown your own premise and tell us all you don't think any of it will happen or the club need to do anything about it because you don't mean it after all and by the way please don't let anyone think I think we might need to win only two more games because I don't I don't honestly I don't because I put a question mark at the end honest I did.

    Great thread. Exceptional thread.

    I think I might go and start one about the preparations the management of the club need to put in place in case the stadium gets ripped into three pieces by an earthquake.

    I think I'll call it "Is the club an absolute disgrace because they have no published plans for our immediate response to an earthquake??"

  19. #19

    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Berkshire
    Posts
    8,854

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by whelk View Post
    Based on their last two games Man City will get no more points this season.
    So that means we only want another win as we play City shortly

  20. #20

    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Location
    Winchester
    Posts
    3,405

    Default

    Interesting stuff.

    I think it would be incredibly unlikely for 3 teams to finish with less than 25 points, however there are some really poor teams in the mix at the bottom; looks like a crazy-low points tally will keep someone up.

    Will be interesting to watch as we drive on towards another top 10 finish..... (which is surely...umm.. possibly, possible?)

  21. #21

    Default

    With regards to the assertion made that bottom-dwelling teams rarely improve over the second half of the season.... I refer you to Saints in the 90s - who regularly had to produce championship winning form to remain in the devision.

    Indeed, I used to joke that we didn't actually start playing until after Christmas!

    The above my be an impression embellished by the passing of time... But it certainly felt that way back then.

  22. #22

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by jasonb View Post
    With regards to the assertion made that bottom-dwelling teams rarely improve over the second half of the season.... I refer you to Saints in the 90s - who regularly had to produce championship winning form to remain in the devision.

    Indeed, I used to joke that we didn't actually start playing until after Christmas!

    The above my be an impression embellished by the passing of time... But it certainly felt that way back then.
    You remember correctly: Even West Brom turned it on at the end of last season: three wins, two draws and only one defeat in their last six. Basically top six form.

  23. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Batman View Post
    2 more wins?

    Dear god
    Was something to aspire to under Hughes.....!

  24. #24

    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Gotham City
    Posts
    28,122

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by angelman View Post
    Was something to aspire to under Hughes.....!
    i know we stayed up under hughes and along with the little faith I had in Les and co finding a better alternative to hughes in the summer, did we ever look decent under him for a run of games?

  25. #25

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    In the doghouse...again
    Posts
    2,951

    Default

    Of course we won't stay up with 2 more wins. We need a lot more than that. Nobody has ever stayed up with 25 points, and doubtless it'll never happen. We'll stay up though, I'm. (now) confident of that.

  26. #26

    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    Kent
    Posts
    4,245
    Blog Entries
    1

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Batman View Post
    i know we stayed up under hughes and along with the little faith I had in Les and co finding a better alternative to hughes in the summer, did we ever look decent under him for a run of games?
    certainly not this season- spoke a good game though! but the last 8 games with him at the back end of last season was a major upgrade on Pellegrino...

    we had a 2-0 lead vs Chelsea, should have beaten Everton away if it were not for that deflection (i think anyway, plus the ref allowed a free kick taken 10 yards ahead?!)... as well as beating bournemouth and more crucially Swansea, we put in a very decent performance against City at home (hit the post etc, was well in it tbf)- and was it not 2-2 at one point against Arsenal at the Emirates?
    However, not saying it was all perfect, that WHU 3-0 defeat was one of the worst away days in the past season or 2, and Leicester away was quite drab but a point there proved crucial in the end anyway.

    The mistake wasn't hiring Hughes after Pellegrino, mistake was giving him a new 3 year contract.

  27. #27

    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Gotham City
    Posts
    28,122

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by nta786 View Post
    certainly not this season, but the last 8 games with him at the back end of last season was a major upgrade on Pellegrino...

    we had a 2-0 lead vs Chelsea, should have beaten Everton away if it were not for that deflection (i think anyway, plus the ref allowed a free kick taken 10 yards ahead?!)... as well as beating bournemouth and more crucially Swansea, we put in a very decent performance against City at home (hit the post etc, was well in it tbf).
    However, not saying it was all perfect, that WHU 3-0 defeat was one of the worst away days in the past season or 2, and Leicester away was quite drab but a point there proved crucial in the end anyway.

    The mistake wasn't hiring Hughes after Pellegrino, mistake was giving him a new 3 year contract.
    I seem to remember a little delay in confirming Hughes in the summer. I wonder if that was because not all at SFC were on board with him being awarded the deal?

  28. #28

    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Location
    Kent
    Posts
    4,245
    Blog Entries
    1

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Batman View Post
    I seem to remember a little delay in confirming Hughes in the summer. I wonder if that was because not all at SFC were on board with him being awarded the deal?
    yeah exactly, maybe hiring Hughes and the terrible results that followed was the straw that broke the camels back and saw Reed fired.

  29. #29

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by CB Fry View Post
    Yes, I've already explained I understand sweetie.

    I get it: you've written a provocative headline and scenerio with question marks at the end of sentences and everything.

    But the very second it gets the reaction a provocative headline is supposed to generate (People respond, provoked) you collapse like a deck of cards.

    So you immediately disown your own premise and tell us all you don't think any of it will happen or the club need to do anything about it because you don't mean it after all and by the way please don't let anyone think I think we might need to win only two more games because I don't I don't honestly I don't because I put a question mark at the end honest I did.

    Great thread. Exceptional thread.

    I think I might go and start one about the preparations the management of the club need to put in place in case the stadium gets ripped into three pieces by an earthquake.

    I think I'll call it "Is the club an absolute disgrace because they have no published plans for our immediate response to an earthquake??"
    It's amazing how much your desire to belittle people trumps your own self awareness. Maybe take a little time to try and see what's being written before jumping in next time, and you might not look so stupid so often.

    Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk

  30. #30

    Default

    Late season the mid table teams will pack up shop while the relegation battlers go all out. I wouldn't feel safe on anything starting with a 2.

  31. Default

    Without indulging in unnecessary personal abuse, I disagree with the OP's suggestion.
    The bottom 4 certainly look as bad as we were under Hughes. Hudds look like they will be adrift at some point and won't make it to 30 points IMO, Cardiff and Burnley are not PL quality but will pick up points at home here and there. Fulham are improving and have been unlucky in the past 2 games. Newcastle are erratic but will probably survive despite Rafa's assertion that it will be a "miracle" if he keeps them up.
    My prediction is 32 points to stay up, Saints 14th. Hudds, Burnley and Cardiff to do down.

  32. #32

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Costa del Bassett
    Posts
    2,695

    Default

    The season of goodwill didn’t last very long�� Saintbobby and CB Fry enjoyed a whole day of love and peace and as soon as the 25th was over, thought **** it, let’s get back to normal��

  33. Default

    Quote Originally Posted by CB Fry View Post
    Yes, I've already explained I understand sweetie.

    I get it: you've written a provocative headline and scenerio with question marks at the end of sentences and everything.

    But the very second it gets the reaction a provocative headline is supposed to generate (People respond, provoked) you collapse like a deck of cards.

    So you immediately disown your own premise and tell us all you don't think any of it will happen or the club need to do anything about it because you don't mean it after all and by the way please don't let anyone think I think we might need to win only two more games because I don't I don't honestly I don't because I put a question mark at the end honest I did.

    Great thread. Exceptional thread.

    I think I might go and start one about the preparations the management of the club need to put in place in case the stadium gets ripped into three pieces by an earthquake.

    I think I'll call it "Is the club an absolute disgrace because they have no published plans for our immediate response to an earthquake??"
    Oh dear. The cretin can’t even distinguish between a premise and a question. What a total retard.

  34. #34

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Wokingham, Berkshire
    Posts
    8,258

    Default

    Debate the topic by all means, but please stop the personal insults.

  35. Default

    Emailed the question (would only two wins be enough for Saints to stay up?) to a mate who mucks around with the stats and methodology on the 538.com predictions website.

    His answer is “yes, probably, but with a proviso”. If those two wins came against the bottom three (and we drew with the other), then in those circumstances the chances of staying up are higher than 50%.

    Of course, once you cap the number of predicted wins, the chance of draws in other matches goes up accordingly. So, we’d probably be looking at something like W2 D9 L9.

    On expected outcomes, he says only three wins - against any opponents - would give Saints a >50% chance of staying up (again, a lot of draws would be the corollary). Only four wins and the % goes to about 75%.

    So, the answer the opening question could well be “not likely to be enough, but just about possible”. Rather more likely than an earthquake hitting St Mary’s, I’m sure we can all agree.
    Last edited by SaintBobby; 27-12-2018 at 02:42 PM.

  36. #36

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    London
    Posts
    22,390

    Default

    Wouldn't even worry. So many dire sides. We'll be well clear of relegation, just needed a good manager. It's not even January. More time to get his ideas across, time for a few sales and signings. I think we'll get another 7/8 wins.

    I think Huddersfield and Cardiff will fight hard but go down. Final position Fulham or Burnley, will both improve I'd think so could be close between them. Palace and Newcastle are awful but think they'll just have enough.

  37. #37

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    London
    Posts
    22,390

    Default

    Another question -

    How many of the current premier league squads do you think Mark Hughes would keep up?

    I'd say top 7, with Everton JUST staying up. The rest I honestly think he'd relegate.

  38. #38

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Batman View Post
    I seem to remember a little delay in confirming Hughes in the summer. I wonder if that was because not all at SFC were on board with him being awarded the deal?
    Yep, correct. Les Reed was against appointing Hughes and made a request to the board that he should go into the market and at least see who else around Europe might be available. He was roundly told to **** off by the board and they promptly gave Hughes a 3yr contract.

  39. #39

    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    stamping on peoples dreams since 2010
    Posts
    28,302

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by batterseasaint View Post
    Yep, correct. Les Reed was against appointing Hughes and made a request to the board that he should go into the market and at least see who else around Europe might be available. He was roundly told to **** off by the board and they promptly gave Hughes a 3yr contract.
    Yep, Reed had heard of Ralphs availability and wanted to speak to him and a couple of others before making the decision but the board felt they owed it to Hughes to give him the deal full time. That was the final straw in the breakdown between Reed and the board and a parting of ways was agreed. Clearly the board have now realised the error of their ways and done what Les wanted to do in the summer and brought Ralph in. Interesting to note many of Reeds signings over the past few seasons have started to deliver too. Still our loss is the FAs gain. Not that any on here would believe it after all the mongboard myth that's peddled out is that everything that went wrong was because of Reed and all that went right was despite of him.

  40. #40

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Wokingham, Berkshire
    Posts
    8,258

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Turkish View Post
    Yep, Reed had heard of Ralphs availability and wanted to speak to him and a couple of others before making the decision but the board felt they owed it to Hughes to give him the deal full time. That was the final straw in the breakdown between Reed and the board and a parting of ways was agreed. Clearly the board have now realised the error of their ways and done what Les wanted to do in the summer and brought Ralph in. Interesting to note many of Reeds signings over the past few seasons have started to deliver too. Still our loss is the FAs gain. Not that any on here would believe it after all the mongboard myth that's peddled out is that everything that went wrong was because of Reed and all that went right was despite of him.
    Hughes came to us on a mercenary gig. We owed him nothing but the alleged 1m bonus for keeping us up. Personally I think Les did well for us over a number of years but ultimately paid the price by choosing, and sticking so long with Pellegrino.

  41. Default

    No team has been relegated with 11 wins, I think we should aim for that ...

  42. Default

    See i heard it was other way round, Reed wanted Hughes and was one of his only allies hence Reed then Hughes went in relatively quick succession

  43. #43

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Turkish View Post
    Yep, Reed had heard of Ralphs availability and wanted to speak to him and a couple of others before making the decision but the board felt they owed it to Hughes to give him the deal full time. That was the final straw in the breakdown between Reed and the board and a parting of ways was agreed. Clearly the board have now realised the error of their ways and done what Les wanted to do in the summer and brought Ralph in. Interesting to note many of Reeds signings over the past few seasons have started to deliver too. Still our loss is the FAs gain. Not that any on here would believe it after all the mongboard myth that's peddled out is that everything that went wrong was because of Reed and all that went right was despite of him.
    In the board's defense, Reed brought in the Clown, and stuck with him for months after he should've been given the boot, and on top of that let him spend almost 20 million to bring in his favourite donkey. Throw in the Forster contract, and other fiascos, and you can't blame them for not trusting him again. Having said that, giving Hughes a 3 year contract wasn't the brightest thing to do.

  44. #44

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Norwich
    Posts
    10,252
    Blog Entries
    1

    Default

    Personally I won't feel happy until we reach 40 points.

  45. #45

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Amesbury
    Posts
    13,650

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dalek2003 View Post
    Personally I won't feel happy until we reach 40 points.
    So you werent happy last season that we stayed up.... thought so

  46. #46

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Norwich
    Posts
    10,252
    Blog Entries
    1

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ALWAYS_SFC View Post
    So you werent happy last season that we stayed up.... thought so
    I was happy we stayed up but always feel that the sooner we get to 4 points the better. TBH, if we finished 17th for the next 5 seasons I would be happy as would the Board.

  47. #47

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Amesbury
    Posts
    13,650

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dalek2003 View Post
    I was happy we stayed up but always feel that the sooner we get to 4 points the better. TBH, if we finished 17th for the next 5 seasons I would be happy as would the Board.

    You are bit behind mate, but that's normal for you

  48. #48

    Default

    I see both Fulham and Cardiff won today

  49. #49

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SFC Forever View Post
    I see both Fulham and Cardiff won today
    Ok, only 3 more wins needed?

  50. #50

    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Stalking Theo's Missus
    Posts
    12,878

    Default

    Is this the first season the OP has been following football and Saints?

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •